China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[Minnale101]

4 minutes ago, Jaybee said:

When can we expect scores in maoyan for H&S. Tomo night?

Yeah tomorrow night or afternoon. Midnights start 11am est 

[Jaybee]

Just now, Minnale101 said:

Yeah tomorrow night or afternoon. Midnights start 11am est 

Thanku so much. 2.0 release dropped or innum chance Iruka!

[POTUS 2020]

37 minutes ago, Minnale101 said:

I actually don’t think Hobbs and Shaw will get that bad of wom in China 

 

92% on EGG in South Korea 

 

3.9/5 on filmark in japan 

 

prob will get 8.8 - 9 on maoyan 

Thats low for an FF movie.  PS not ramping up well, it needs 9+ to do well

 

NZ held -8% yesterday at 50m.  -6% today at 47m.  Probably 44m tomorrow.

4300m/$614m+ total tomorrow, ahead of my projection.  It lost 40% of its shows last friday but still bumped 10%.

It will lose 40-50% of shows this Fri.  If it can just hold flat to thursday it will be down just 34% WoW.

If so, I give it 50/50 it clears 4900m/$700m.  Slight chance for 5000m$714m. it will lose summer weekdays though on Sept 2

Never say cant clear $400m $500m $600m $700m in CBO. Ya never know!

Edited August 21, 2019 by POTUS 2020

[Jaybee]

3 minutes ago, POTUS 2020 said:

Thats low for an FF movie.  PS not ramping up well, it needs 9+ to do well

 

NZ held -8% yesterday at 50m.  -6% today at 47m.  Probably 44m tomorrow.

4300m/$614m+ total tomorrow, ahead of my projection.  It lost 40% of its shows last friday but still bumped 10%.

It will lose 40-50% of shows this Fri.  If it can just hold flat to thursday it will be down just 34% WoW.

If so, I give it 50/50 it clears 4900m/$700m.  Slight chance for 5000m$714m. it will lose summer weekdays though

Never say cant clear $400m $500m $600m $700m in CBO. Ya never know!

What's the minimum that h&s can do even with worst reviews! ?

[Minnale101]

12 minutes ago, POTUS 2020 said:

Thats low for an FF movie.  PS not ramping up well, it needs 9+ to do well

 

NZ held -8% yesterday at 50m.  -6% today at 47m.  Probably 44m tomorrow.

4300m/$614m+ total tomorrow, ahead of my projection.  It lost 40% of its shows last friday but still bumped 10%.

It will lose 40-50% of shows this Fri.  If it can just hold flat to thursday it will be down just 34% WoW.

If so, I give it 50/50 it clears 4900m/$700m.  Slight chance for 5000m$714m. it will lose summer weekdays though on Sept 2

Never say cant clear $400m $500m $600m $700m in CBO. Ya never know!

In my case it’s win win. Hobbs and Shaw performs well than good for the rock who I love.

 

 if it disappoints than good chance NZ could do 700 million. Which would be unbeatable for years for a single country animation movie unless frozen 2 could do it which would be hard pressed 

[POTUS 2020]

2 minutes ago, Jaybee said:

What's the minimum that h&s can do even with worst reviews! ?

It could open with just $80m based on weak PS and do 1.8x with an 8.8,  $144m.

Maoyan PS has been erratic for months.  It could open $80m-100m+, then its up to the rating.  

I wouldn't put money on any prediction at this point

 

[keysersoze123]

Midnights look huge for H&S. Almost 30m. May be PS multi will be huge for this and we still see 250m OD.

[ZeeSoh]

Midnight gross for Hobbs & Shaw and some comparisons

 

Endgame - 179.8

Fate of the Furious - 62.7

Infinity War - 55.92

Furious 7 - 52.45*

Warcraft - 50.08*

Transformers 5 - 39.95

Hobbs & Shaw - 35.21

Age of Ultron - 29.72*

Spiderman: Far From Home - 22.27

Civil War - 16.94*

Captain Marvel - 15.45

Venom - 14.44

Jurassic World 2 - 13.63

Pirates 5 - 13.04

Mission Impossible 6 - 10.21

 

(* - indicates gross without ticketing fees)

[Legion Again]

It’s a strong midnight showing, but I bet the midnight:total multiplier will be really low here looking at FSS right now.

[Jaybee]

57 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Midnight gross for Hobbs & Shaw and some comparisons

 

Endgame - 179.8

Fate of the Furious - 62.7

Infinity War - 55.92

Furious 7 - 52.45*

Warcraft - 50.08*

Transformers 5 - 39.95

Hobbs & Shaw - 35.21

Age of Ultron - 29.72*

Spiderman: Far From Home - 22.27

Civil War - 16.94*

Captain Marvel - 15.45

Venom - 14.44

Jurassic World 2 - 13.63

Pirates 5 - 13.04

Mission Impossible 6 - 10.21

 

(* - indicates gross without ticketing fees)

$90m+ opening still possible?

[efialtes76]

8.4 at Taopiaopiao. 

Very low.

[POTUS 2020]

20 minutes ago, Jaybee said:

$90m+ opening still possible?

PS at 68.2 and counting.

Going with a standard PSm of 3.33 and standard daily moves

MN     35m

Fr      233m  3.33x PS

Sa     256m  10% Summer Sat bump

Su     205m  20% Summer Sun drop

Total 729m/$103m  @7.08 yuan to $1

Could be a few percent higher

or 20% lower with a bad rating/PSm

[a2k]

KOTM crossed 1.9x with a low Maoyan score. HS can do something similar hopefully.

[Minnale101]

Sucks but not surprising. Hobbs and Shaw is really just a comedy film with action elements not like the other fast and furious movies 

[Legion Again]

17 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

8.4 at Taopiaopiao. 

Very low.

So Vin was the real draw all along. Should have known, he’s in the 4 biggest HW movies after all  

[ZeeSoh]

1 hour ago, Jaybee said:

$90m+ opening still possible?

 

1 hour ago, POTUS 2020 said:

PS at 68.2 and counting.

Going with a standard PSm of 3.33 and standard daily moves

MN     35m

Fr      233m  3.33x PS

Sa     256m  10% Summer Sat bump

Su     205m  20% Summer Sun drop

Total 729m/$103m  @7.08 yuan to $1

Could be a few percent higher

or 20% lower with a bad rating/PSm

What he said. I usually go a bit conservative but 90+ seems likely unless reception is average. Getting to 90m would require 10x multi from 69m PS which is achievable. Spidey FFH recently managed 10x multi and Venom whoch is similarly sized managed 12x+ multi last year. 

 

My only comcern is the very low Sat PS right now which could indicate frontloadedmess like Captain Marvel which had a sub 10x multi but its reception was average. So it all depends on reception. H&S is currently sitting at 6.3 on Douban but Douban is not very accurate when its comes to reception so will have to wait for Maoyan rating. 

 

Speaking of Maoyan is anyone having trouble accessing the mobile site of Maoyan? Right now when I try accessing the Maoyan mobile sit to see rating/predictions its redirecting me to i.meituan.com and asking me to log in but the desktop site is working fine. Is anyone else experiencing the same thing? 

[Legion Again]

8.4 TPP @ZeeSoh

 

also I get the same meituan  error on iPad, have been for about a week I think. 

Edited August 22, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[KP1025]

1 hour ago, a2k said:

KOTM crossed 1.9x with a low Maoyan score. HS can do something similar hopefully.

KOTM started with a great 9.0 on Maoyan though and dropped to its current 8.5 a while after opening. H&S will likely start with a lower score on Maoyan (around 8.5) and drop from there. 

[ZeeSoh]

7 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said:

8.4 TPP @ZeeSoh

 

also I get the same meituan  error on iPad, have been for about a week I think. 

Thats a bit low for TPP I think. Would match the relatively low rating on Douban. 

[Minnale101]

Holy hell reading the maoyan user scores 

 

this is gonna be low 8s could possibly drop to high 7s 

 

big yikes