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A Marvel Fanboy

China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

By A Marvel Fanboy, in China At The Box Office

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A Marvel Fanboy Global Phenomenon

A Marvel Fanboy

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Friday:
    [*]IM3 61M yuan $9.8M Cume 236M $37.88M.

 
Friday-Thursday increase (+12.9%) was slightly disappointing, below normal 15% mark. Hoped for $10M or 63M Friday. Makes it harder for Saturday to pull back to 100M yuan.
 
Anyway,I am still projecting 410M yuan $65.8M 5-days opening for IM3, which just beats TF3 Thu-Sun 4-days opening of 402M yuan set in July 2011 as the 2nd biggest opening of all time.
 
Projected Weekly Top 5 (Week 18 of 2013, Apr 29~May 5):
    [*]1. Iron Man 3 -- 410M -- NEW -- 410M [*]2. So Young -- 325M -- +120% -- 473M [*]3. The Croods -- 120M -- +87% -- 224M [*]4. G.I.Joe: Retaliation -- 41M -- -51% -- 333M [*]5. Conspirators -- 11M -- +37% -- 19M

 
Okay, here is the things to notice ...the overal weekly 18 gross looks to land somewhere around 920M, which comfortably bests the all time record just set less than three months ago, marking the broader market the first time ever to cross the 900M milestone. "You never see me coming."
 
Overal weekly 18 admissions also will pass 20M to fall over 22M, making it the biggest week ever in admissions and the third week to cross 20M attendance.
 
Let's briefly recap the times when the overal weekly box office was broken in past few years, to once again show how the market is fastly growing:
 
    [*]100M+ week never happened until December 2006 when Chang Yimou's The City of Golden Armor opened (Dec 14, 11~17, around 110M weekly box office). That Christmas week followed also broke 100M. But that's it.Twice and all.

 
Pre-2008, in 2007 or 2006, sub 30M weeks were normal to see. A movie could easily led a week with sub 10M gross.
 
In the whole 2007, there were only four 100M+ weeks.
 
Even in May 2008, a movie (Iron Man)can still won the weekly box office chart with just 8M yuan. And that was in the movie's fifth week of release.
 
In 2008, the number of 100M+ weeks climbed to 7. That makes it 12 in total before entering 2009.
 
Things changed dramatically in 2009.TF2 broke the opening record with 160M and Titanic's all time total box office record and just 45 days later, TF2's record was broken by 2012. The year alone saw "whopping" 27 100M+ weeks. Not enough.
 
    [*]However, the first 200M+ week didnt come until December 2009 when, again, Chang Yimou's A Simple Noodle Story opened.

 
    [*]Things dont last long.Just another two weeks later, Avatar delivered the first 300M+ in history by breaking the opening record for a single movie by an eye-poping 79% margin. Thanks to Avatar, we were able to see quite several other 200M+ weeks in 2010.

 
    [*]It was December again, 2010. You Are the One 2 and Let The Bullets Fly jointly made the first 400M+ week(474M). 

 
In July 2011, TF3 didnt bring the first 500M+ week, though it did become the 400M+ opener (402M)in China's cinema history, jumping over the 300M+ mark. And the week it opened did break the weekly record at 478M. 
 
    [*]"You never see me coming." Titanic shipped back, into the first 500M+ week in China, in 3D.The week totaled 530M with a record-breaking 468M from Titanic 3D.Titanic 3D was also the first movie to draw over 10M admissions through opening week.

 
    [*]The first 600M+ week came along with the first 700M+ one in December 2012 when Lost in Thailand meets CZ12 over the Christmas week. The week also was the first 20M+ admissions week.

 
    [*]The 2013 Lunar New Year stalls was not over when Stephen Chou's Journey to the West delivered the first 800M+ week (850M) through the Chinese New Year Festivel week (2013.2.11~2.17). That was the second 20M+ admissions week. JTTW was the first movie to manage 500M+ gross (567M)within a natural week.

 
Now. 2013 May Labor Day holidays + Iron Man 3 + So Young + The Croods = the first 900M+ week.
Some facts:
    [*]2013 Labor Day holidays - biggest three-days holidays (435M) of them all, and +84% of that of 2012. [*]  [*]Iron Man 3 - biggest 5 days opening, second biggest opening week, biggest May opening. Plus everyone knows it now holds the midnight/opening day/IMAX opening record. Unfortunately IM3 missed the 10M+ admissions opening. Titanic 3D is still lonely. [*]  [*]So Young - biggest grossed week that didnt hit #1 with 325M, beating CZ12's 262M at its 2nd week.And So Young became the third movie to draw 10M+ admissions during 2nd week, after LiT and JTTW. [*]  [*]The Croods - Now it is the biggest non-sequel animation.Its third week is also the second best third-week for an animation, only behind KFP2. [*]  [*]The 920M week - it is so close to the total yealy box office of 2002 (950M), the year when modern multiplex started to be built in the country. Yup, and it is bigger than any month before 2010.

 
The last. I am very confident that the first 1B+ week will come within one year. The first 1.1B+, 1.2B+ or even 1.3B+ week should come in summer 2014 or December 2014. 
 
P.S. at the rate it is going, it most likely will take more than 500M $80M for a movie to get into the top 10 of 2013. 
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