China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[Ent]

Thats what 74 million dollars as of now? 

yes

[Olive]

Will IM3 reach $100 million this weekend ?

Don't know how many screens Oblivion and Django will take away.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

$100M by this weekend is pretty hard, requiring nearly 50M Saturday (+60% from Friday) and 35M Sunday. Last Sat only increased 45%. That was without Oblivion.

 

More like 600M $96M by Sunday based on how it is performing currently.

[superstancer]

Can IM3 cross MI4??? even if its rock steady it can but ther r too many releases....

[Olive]

WEDNESDAY

IM3 -￥24M -￥482M

SY -￥18.5M -￥540M

Croods -￥4.1M- -￥242M

GIJ2 ~￥335m

[Olive]

 

Can IM3 cross MI4??? even if its rock steady it can but ther r too many releases....

 

Likely but not locked.

 

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Wednesday:

 

IM3 ~ 23.3M -25% ~ 482.5M $77.45M

SY ~ 18.2M -17% ~ 540.7M $86.8M

 

IM3 is fading quciker than we thought .... Thursday might even fall below 20M ...  http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/uploads/emoticons/default_ohmy.png' alt=':o'> 

 

With:

20M Thu -15%

25M Fri +25%

38M Sat +50%

-30m Sun -20% ; Cume 596M

 

That is 198M full 2nd week, just short of 200M, down roughly 50% from its opening. Down 65% exluding Monday and Tuesday. That is even worse holds than GIJ2. With the same (65%) drop, it will end up with exactly 700M $112M.

As for So Young, on Wed the gap with IM3 was only 5M. So wont be surprised if it outdoes IM3 from next week. It should reach 630M by this Sunday, meaning 155M weekly gross off a holiday week, down just 53%. (Even) with 50% drops from here, it will end with over 770M $123M.

 

The fate is clear. The lesson is important. Some main reasons why IM3, a $200M P&B Hollywood blockbuster, the most promising Hollywood movie of the year in China, is not beating So Young, a low budget (less than $10M total costs including production, marketing and distributions) local YA / romance / chick flick:

 

1. IM3 missed the first two days of the May holiday. Given how it storms the third one on its opening. It should have at least earned another 150m more had it received the full holidays. That would comfortably put it over SY in total box office.

 

2. The marketing of IM3 falls generic. And sometimes even became "harmful" when the difference of its Chinese version got uncontrolled amplied by the media.

 

Marketing and Advertising have always been a big problem for Hollywood movies in China. Sure, they get more stringent restrictions than local films from SAFRT or other government departments. However they still got plenty room, enough to make their movies reach a far wide potential audience. The truth is, sometimes (or most), Hollywood studios just dont pay much attention to the P&A for their movies in China. They just throw it there, throw it to CFG and wait for their money feedbacks. Take WB's Hobbit An Unexpected Journey for example. WB is obviously the one that pay the least attention to how their movies doing in China. What did WB do for Hobbit's marketing in China ? Nothing. They spent ZERO bucks on the P&A. The marketing for Hobbit was very poor. And all that was coming from CFG, theaters and theater chains and Hobbit fans. WB just waited to count their revenue shares. Yet Hobbit did $50M (to be frankly, that's some poorly $50M, the LOTR brand deservers much more) at the box office. And WB gets about $12.5M pure profits from that $50M, by doing nothing on the marketing. Well job done ...

 

3. Pre-release or post-release, the marketing team of So Young can always bring new hot topics to media outlets. It's no surprising though. Since SY is a local film, a first directorial debut from a household actress with millions fangirls, a bestseller adaption with heavy nostalgic elements and a female-driven romance film. It's so much easier to build and spread topics around the movie itself. Even earlier this week, the cast of SY was still doing TV interviews and programs.

***

 

I will talk a bit more about why Hollywood have been defeated under the wind by local films later.

Edited May 9, 2013 by firedeep

[POLYLOVE]

I'm even worried IM3 would lose to SY tomorrow with the new release of Oblivion which clearly targets same audience with IM3.

Edited May 9, 2013 by POLYLOVE

[A Marvel Fanboy]

I'm even worried IM3 would lose to SY tomorrow with the new release of Oblivion which clearly targets same audience with IM3.

Oblivion is also very ... worrying ... Could SY even overwhelm both IM3 and Oblivion this weekend ... ? 

[POLYLOVE]

Oblivion is also very ... worrying ... Could SY even overwhelm both IM3 and Oblivion this weekend ... ? 

No doubt, the hope of Chinese movie—SY will beat everything.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

No doubt, the hope of Chinese movie—SY will beat everything.

How about a Tiny World (6.27) over So Young club ? 

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Tiny World will own this summer, considering July will be blackout period for Hollywood. Last year this same slot, the last week of June, brought Pianted Skin 2 (700M).

 

American Dream in China (5.18) will bury Star Trek into Darkness (5.28).

Edited May 9, 2013 by firedeep

[Ay72998]

firedeep, can you list some of the high profile local films (with the director and stars names; for example, what is Tiny World?) that's going to be released for the next few month?  And maybe your prediction on how they are going to do?

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Quick news:

 

Oblivion is done in China. It just opens this (Friday) morning. But now by noon theaters received a notification that Its IMAX release should be cancelled (or no more than one screening per theater per day) immediately. As for its 2D shows, every theater should keep it on no more than one screen per theater. So basically it is now becomes a limited release in China. Plus poor wom from early screenings here. The movie is done in China.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

firedeep, can you list some of the high profile local films (with the director and stars names; for example, what is Tiny World?) that's going to be released for the next few month?  And maybe your prediction on how they are going to do?

You mean future releases ? or ?

[Sam]

Quick news:

 

Oblivion is done in China. It just opens this (Friday) morning. But now by noon theaters received a notification that Its IMAX release should be cancelled (or no more than one screening per theater per day) immediately. As for its 2D shows, every theater should keep it on no more than one screen per theater. So basically it is now becomes a limited release in China. Plus poor wom from early screenings here. The movie is done in China.

WOW  That really sucks for Oblivion 

[A Marvel Fanboy]

As for Friday early updates:

 

It is still 13:30pm but So Young now is running #1, Oblivion #2, IM3 now falls to #3. All three very close to each other though.

 

In short: SY is a beast; IM3 horrible legs; Oblivion is fucked.

[Sam]

Ugh, So Young, why can't it die already 

 

IM3 will still pass 100M though, right?

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Ugh, So Young, why can't it die already   Because it is a local movie. And general Chinese audience sucks ... 

 

IM3 will still pass 100M though, right? Yes. But #110M is hard now ...

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Another thing to note:

 

FF6 is going to be exclusively released in IMAX 3D in one of China's biggest theater chain (Wanda Cinemas); everywhere else in the world will only get IMAX 2D.