China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[Fake]

Funny how 400.000$ can make such a difference in predicting TASM2's total

It's the trend that matters. A sizable drop on first Tuesday indicates poor WOM and hence worse legs.

[Olive]

Wednesday est

Spidey  28M total 159M

Not good.

[keysersoze123]

 Where do you see it after this sunday and how is competition over next 2 weeks.

[Ent]

Wednesday est

Spidey  28M total 159M

Not good.

Is it the mixed wom that is catching up ?

[Olive]

May reach 310M after Sunday.

Next week Zhang yimou's Home Coming and X-DOFP the week following.

[Olive]

Is it the mixed wom that is catching up ?

WOM is decent actually, 8.2/10 on Gewara.com, CA2 had 8.4...

[pepsa]

Wednesday est

Spidey  28M total 159M

Not good.

 

Lets hope they under estimated it... Spidey could use that human mistake very badly!

[Fake]

Oops.... it is falling behind even my conservative projection.

[John Marston]

Maybe it's a weekend movie like in the US

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Spidey is falling faster than expected ...

 

Weekday in China relatively is stronger than in US. Movies drop 70%+ on Monday in US in non-summer/holidays. But in China 50%~60% drops are standard on Monday. Difference is that movies jump big on Friday in US while in China they would be lucky to stay flat on Friday if there is a big opener.

 

Plus ASM2 only has one free weekend (this weekend), so not much room to unleash its weekend effect (if ever exists). Next weekend it will have to compete with Coming Home. It will be replaced by DOFP on May 23.

Edited May 7, 2014 by firedeep

[TalismanRing]

Wednesday est

Spidey  28M total 159M

Not good.

 

For comparison CAP2's first Wed after it's full Holiday w/e

 

CAP2 27m 365m

 

So if it had the exact same run as CAP2 from now on out it would end with $33m less.

[Sam]

For comparison CAP2's first Wed after it's full Holiday w/e CAP2 27m 365m So if it had the exact same run as CAP2 from now on out it would end with $33m less.

That would be pretty optimistic though cause Cap has good weekend drop for blockbuster movies in China. I don't think it has a single 60%+ weekend drop during its run.

[TalismanRing]

That would be pretty optimistic though cause Cap has good weekend drop for blockbuster movies in China. I don't think it has a single 60%+ weekend drop during its run.

 

Agreed,  especially with DOFP closer on the horizon than Spider-Man was to CA2

 

CAP2's China #s

 

April 4–Apr. 6  $36,230,000 - $36,230,000

Apr. 7–13  $41,440,000 +14.4% $80,260,000

Apr. 14–20  $18,020,000 -56.5% $98,270,000

Apr. 21–27 $8,940,000 -50.4% $107,220,000

Apr. 28–May 4  $7,580,000 -15.2% $115,620,000

Edited May 7, 2014 by TalismanRing

[Ent]

So, do we have a tendency to know where TASM2 will finish ?  

 

Is $70 - $80M still in play ?

[Godzilla]

So, do we have a tendency to know where TASM2 will finish ?  

 

Is $70 - $80M still in play ?

 

 

Honestly who knows? Maybe more, maybe less. I think Fridays numbers will tell us much more where this is going. 

[Archerdude]

Does that mean US$90M - 100M can be ruled out?  Just a hunch, Sony will still spin that it is better than TASM1, or that it is the highest grossing film in the series, therefore failing to account the fact that the market has grown immeasurably since Raimi's Spideys, specially with 3D and IMAX in play, and will ignore to mention that TASM1 was shafted by the Batman duke out and really should have done 500-600 easily were it not screwed by dating (3 months after US, last day of Summer) and competition head to head.

Edited May 8, 2014 by Archerdude

[Sam]

Agreed,  especially with DOFP closer on the horizon than Spider-Man was to CA2 CAP2's China #s April 4–Apr. 6  $36,230,000 - $36,230,000 Apr. 7–13  $41,440,000 +14.4% $80,260,000 Apr. 14–20  $18,020,000 -56.5% $98,270,000Apr. 21–27 $8,940,000 -50.4% $107,220,000Apr. 28–May 4  $7,580,000 -15.2% $115,620,000

Yeah, base on the chart, Cap got a 3x multiplier off of an inflated by holiday 3-day OW. I don't think TASM2 could follow the same pattern. And that's not because of WOM (which Olive said is pretty good) but rather upcoming competitions.

[Olive]

TASM2 Wednsday 27.8M,total 160M.

 

projections:

Thu 26M

Fri 30M

Sat  51M

Sun  43M

Total after Sunday: 310M

 

Early Friday shoutimes:

TASM2 34%

Classmate 13.3%

Hummingbird  12.4%

Aberdeen 12.2%

[A Marvel Fanboy]

This November is already packed with Rish of the Legend, The Crossing Part 2 and Fury. So no slots for Mockingjay 1 or Interstellar in Nov. Both will be released in late January or early Feb, about one month after Gone with the Bullets.

 

April just struggled to flat with 2013. May wont increase much either.

 

September and Nov look pretty weak. October has holidays. So the 28B yearly milestone looks hard to reach, if the summer (mostly June and July; Aug will decrease) does not set the fire on.

[Ent]

TASM2 Wednsday 27.8M,total 160M.

 

projections:

Thu 26M

Fri 30M

Sat  51M

Sun  43M

Total after Sunday: 310M

 

Early Friday shoutimes:

TASM2 34%

Classmate 13.3%

Hummingbird  12.4%

Aberdeen 12.2%

This looks like finishing around 470 - 480M