China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[Olive]

Isnt that IP man guy

Yes

[alisson23]

Glad Maze Runner and Hercules bombed. More money for Guardians of the Galaxy.

Selfish, Guardians have done what it had to do. Moreover, Hercules and Maze Runner's WW BO were much smaller.

______________________________________________________________________________________________

PS: Frozen is overrated

[Olive]

TMNT midnights 2M yuan, decent!

GOTG will face a huge drop and end up around $95M.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

I agree that Hobbit 3 could hit $120m next year.

 

As for TA2, no way it goes below $200m with this kind of crazy buzz it is getting. Actually even $250m+ is possible. (It wont get the May holiday but imagine it did, then $250m would absolutely be locked.)

 

In a perfect China market, Disney would send the full cast to China to promote TA2 in April and manage to get the movie opened on Apr 24th. With the May holiday (5.1~5.3) boost, even a total around $300m / 2B RMB would not be a pure dream.

 

However, relealisticly, it is almost certain that TA2 will miss the holiday, leaving it to The Crossing Part 2 and other local titles.

 

Thought Jurassic World could challenge TA2 in China next year. But now it looks TA2 will comfortably take the foreign crown of 2015.

 

It's staggering to see top 10 movies, five of which could top 1B RMB, from 2014 will all cross $100m, with the full year gross nearing $5B.

 

So what happens in 2015 ?

• It takes a film 900m RMB or more than $140m to have a shot at the yearly top 10 spot.
• Full year will target $6.5B.
• More than 90 films will cross the 100m RMB milestone.
• ...........

[Wrath]

 

I agree that Hobbit 3 could hit $120m next year.

 

As for TA2, no way it goes below $200m with this kind of crazy buzz it is getting. Actually even $250m+ is possible. (It wont get the May holiday but imagine it did, then $250m would absolutely be locked.)

 

In a perfect China market, Disney would send the full cast to China to promote TA2 in April and manage to get the movie opened on Apr 24th. With the May holiday (5.1~5.3) boost, even a total around $300m / 2B RMB would not be a pure dream.

 

However, relealisticly, it is almost certain that TA2 will miss the holiday, leaving it to The Crossing Part 2 and other local titles.

 

Thought Jurassic World could challenge TA2 in China next year. But now it looks TA2 will comfortably take the foreign crown of 2015.

 

It's staggering to see top 10 movies, five of which could top 1B RMB, from 2014 will all cross $100m, with the full year gross nearing $5B.

 

So what happens in 2015 ?

• It takes a film 900m RMB or more than $140m to have a shot at the yearly top 10 spot.
• Full year will target $6.5B.
• More than 90 films will cross the 100m RMB milestone.
• ...........

 

 

Yeah, this is a trend that's likely to just keep on going.  Barring a really severe economic turnaround, I think China will surpass the US as the most important country for new movie releases in general by about 2020, and in certain areas its already happened.

[Donald]

Yess. Firedeep is back!

You def give the best info

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Yeah, this is a trend that's likely to just keep on going.  Barring a really severe economic turnaround, I think China will surpass the US as the most important country for new movie releases in general by about 2020, and in certain areas its already happened.

2013 ----------- $3.6B

2014 ----------- $5.0B

2015 ----------- $6.5B

2016 ----------- $8.1B

2017 ----------- $10B

2018 ----------- $11.5B

2019 ----------- $13B

2020 ----------- $14.5B

 

If everything goes right:

 

Year total BO could reach $10B in 2017 in earliest and China should replace US/CA as the World's biggest BO market in 2018, $11.5B VS $11B.

 

However it probably will take another 10 years or longer, i.e. by 2028 or 2030, for China overtaking US/CA as the World's biggest market for entertainment contents overall. It's just a matter of time. The real question is, in the long future, will China become the World's biggest producer for entertainment contents ? In other words, will there be a Chollywood or some concept like that and where it will locate, Shanghai ? Beijing ? or both ? Since it is inevitable that China and Hollywood will eventually merge into one thing in capital and production level. There will be one day that most of the yearly top blockbusters worldwide are China-US coproductions.

 

China's GDP is widely predicted to surpass that of US by 2019. Though in terms of per capita GDP, China will never near US (not before 2050, at least.......)——it's natural when you have got 1.3B people.

Edited October 31, 2014 by firedeep

[druv10]

Fri Numbers

 

TMNT 45M

Lucy 11.2M 199M 32.36M

TMR  10.5M 50M  8.13M

GOTG 2.6M 576M  93.66M

[juni78ukr]

Friday est.

 

Turtles 45 mln or $7.33

Kung-fu Jungle 12.6 mln or 2.05 mln

Lucy 11.2 mln or $1.83 mln. 199 mln or $32.5 mln total

The Maze Runner 10.5 mln or $1.71 mln. 50 mln or $8.15 mln total 

Guardians 2.6 mln or $0.42 mln. 576 mln or 93.7 mln total.

 

24-25 mln OW for Turtles. Maybe even more.   

[picores]

70m seems reachable with this OD...good for the Turtles.

[fmpro]

Ehhh. I actully expected more for Turtles.

[Wrath]

2013 ----------- $3.6B

2014 ----------- $5.0B

2015 ----------- $6.5B

2016 ----------- $8.1B

2017 ----------- $10B

2018 ----------- $11.5B

2019 ----------- $13B

2020 ----------- $14.5B

 

If everything goes right:

 

Year total BO could reach $10B in 2017 in earliest and China should replace US/CA as the World's biggest BO market in 2018, $11.5B VS $11B.

 

However it probably will take another 10 years or longer, i.e. by 2028 or 2030, for China overtaking US/CA as the World's biggest market for entertainment contents overall. It's just a matter of time. The real question is, in the long future, will China become the World's biggest producer for entertainment contents ? In other words, will there be a Chollywood or some concept like that and where it will locate, Shanghai ? Beijing ? or both ? Since it is inevitable that China and Hollywood will eventually merge into one thing in capital and production level. There will be one day that most of the yearly top blockbusters worldwide are China-US coproductions.

 

China's GDP is widely predicted to surpass that of US by 2019. Though in terms of per capita GDP, China will never near US (not before 2050, at least.......)——it's natural when you have got 1.3B people.

 

Yeah, that seems about right, though US BO will presumably grow a bit over that period of time.  Maybe 10%, ballpark, putting China in line to pass the US in BO in 2019 at just about the same time it passes the US in GDP which seems appropriate.  The biggest issue China will likely face in this regard (and this is perhaps a bit Off-topic) is keeping the economy rolling along and stable.  Iron ore and coal imports are down to being at best flat with 2013 and possibly starting to even dip down.  On the other hand, the fall in oil prices has probably helped a lot.  China just needs to hold it together until the baton gets passed, which is easier said than done.  But so far, so good.

 

So maybe ~585/95m for GotG total?  That's better than I expected.

[pepsa]

2013 ----------- $3.6B

2014 ----------- $5.0B

2015 ----------- $6.5B

2016 ----------- $8.1B

2017 ----------- $10B

2018 ----------- $11.5B

2019 ----------- $13B

2020 ----------- $14.5B

 

If everything goes right:

 

Year total BO could reach $10B in 2017 in earliest and China should replace US/CA as the World's biggest BO market in 2018, $11.5B VS $11B.

 

However it probably will take another 10 years or longer, i.e. by 2028 or 2030, for China overtaking US/CA as the World's biggest market for entertainment contents overall. It's just a matter of time. The real question is, in the long future, will China become the World's biggest producer for entertainment contents ? In other words, will there be a Chollywood or some concept like that and where it will locate, Shanghai ? Beijing ? or both ? Since it is inevitable that China and Hollywood will eventually merge into one thing in capital and production level. There will be one day that most of the yearly top blockbusters worldwide are China-US coproductions.

 

China's GDP is widely predicted to surpass that of US by 2019. Though in terms of per capita GDP, China will never near US (not before 2050, at least.......)——it's natural when you have got 1.3B people.

 

It's also natural when you got 1.3B people that you pass other countries in larges movie industrie.

[Archerdude]

70m seems reachable with this OD...good for the Turtles.

 

Paramount must have been shooting for 100M US$ though

[fmpro]

Overall i think they are happy with close to 500 mill WW incl a great DOM run

[Olive]

600M is absolutely dead for GOTG, the question mark is that whether it can beat TASM2.

[Archerdude]

600M is absolutely dead for GOTG, the question mark is that whether it can beat TASM2.

[Archerdude]

600M is absolutely dead for GOTG, the question mark is that whether it can beat TASM2.

 

If memory serves me right...it has now beaten The Avengers in China?  Just goes to show the growth this market is experiencing, 2 years ago it was still a major deal to go past 500M.

[druv10]

 

No need for sad face. 95M should happen. Considering the release date that's astounding to me. 

[Chan Keobora]

Friday : http://www.cbooo.cn/movieday

 

 

Kungfu Jungle : 14.34m / 2.33m  OD

 

so disappointed 

 

Ninja turtles collect all this weekend

may be the same to next one.....

 

Hercule out of top ten screen daily just 11 days in release....unbelievable for hollywood blockbuster,

Edited November 1, 2014 by Tonghai