China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[peludo]

46 minutes ago, Arlo245 said:

Awesome start for Zootopia! $100 million USD is very likely! 

 

3 minutes ago, seduh said:

Great Opening for IPMan3 and Zootopia. Zootopia could have great legs and reach $100, it will be amazing

 

According some people here WOM is so good that it could beat KFP3...

[Arlo245]

5 minutes ago, peludo said:

 

According some people here WOM is so good that it could beat KFP3...

I know, I also believe that's possible, maybe even likely but I wouldn't say very likely. I'll wait for Monday numbers and next weekend's hold first.

[Olive]

2 hours ago, peludo said:

 

According some people here WOM is so good that it could beat KFP3...

Everything is possible, right now just hope for 100M USD, that would make it the first $100M hollywood animation, KFP3 is co-produced so doesnt count.

 

[sgchn40]

On 5 March 2016 at 1:36 PM, No Prisoners said:

Yup. We're here to track BO. Mite as well be proper about it.  A sharp change in XR in the last week of a movies run should alter the numbers. 

It's important for imports, they put it in the books that day as an actual and use that days XR or weeks average for their books for dollar revenue reporting.

 

 

It is now reported in major news agency in China. I wonder what the producers will say now? Who is that guy behind this again? Will he be implicated?

[CelestialFairyIX]

10 minutes ago, sgchn40 said:

 

It is now reported in major news agency in China. I wonder what the producers will say now? Who is that guy behind this again? Will he be implicated?

How will the change in XR affect the imported movies?  I mean, will it be good or bad? 

[sgchn40]

Sorry, I was referring to IM3... The quote was wrong due to a lingering effect with the quick reply. I had previously wanted to comment on that one.

 

Here goes...

 

The exaggerated gross of IM3 is now reported in major news agency in China. I wonder what the producers will say now? Who is that guy behind this again? Will he be implicated?

[CelestialFairyIX]

5 minutes ago, sgchn40 said:

Sorry, I was referring to IM3... The quote was wrong due to a lingering effect with the quick reply. I had previously wanted to comment on that one.

 

Here goes...

 

The exaggerated gross of IM3 is now reported in major news agency in China. I wonder what the producers will say now? Who is that guy behind this again? Will he be implicated?

Oh okay!  Thanks for explaining!  

[sgchn40]

12 minutes ago, CelestialFairyIX said:

Oh okay!  Thanks for explaining!  

 

Sorry! ?

 

By the way, as mentioned by NoPrisoners and other forummers, the practice is to calculate the XR during the run of the movie. 

 

if rmb strengthens against the usd, then the gross will be higher in usd. In recent days, this has been the trend, so zootopia will benefit.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

8 hours ago, TigerPaw said:

Just by judging on Paper.
Between March 4th to March 25th.  Just looking at the big release.
Ip Man 3 (March 4th) and Revenant (March 18th) are both highly acclaimed in terms of awards, Ip Man 3's 8 nominations in HK film awards and of course Revenant's Oscar Best Actor win, but both are plagued by piracy. Ip Man 3 have been seen many Chinese audiences online to be honest, and Revenant's download apparently increased tremendously after Leonardo Dicarpio won the best oscar. So 2 big releases plagued by Piracy, piracy will kill their legs. 
What I feel about Revenant is that, it will bore the Chinese audiences. I think okay douban score but low Gewara or Maoyan scores.. It already opened in Singapore during CNY weekend but didn't do well at all.

Next we have Gods of Egypt (March 11th), which is not doing well in most Asian countries other than HK where it beats London has Fallen... weird. But WOM is already terrible everywhere, rotten tomatoes, US Box office flop.. I am thinking at most 300m Yuan for this.

We do have a wild card which is Zootopia, but the only thing lacking is that it is an animated film, so on paper it doesn't look attractive and many predicted a small opening but good legs, therefore it wouldn't have the "big splash" effect of record breaking daily Box office, but will consistently perform and reach a good overall gross.

So in this sense, on paper in March, we have 2 releases plagued by piracy despite huge fan bases and online activity. Then we have a bad WOM Hollywood flick. Lastly, an animation which will have strong legs. In that sense, every weekend is pretty predictable, for both showtimes and grosses.

Of course BvS is great on March 25th, but why is April interesting is because I am looking at it in terms of box office competition. % of Showtimes, Daily gross during the weekend...  BvS I will look at it for the Qingming weekend where the fight between 4 big films will occur, and then later in April London has Fallen and Jungle book has so much more commercial appeal than Gods of Egypt and Revenant to be honest.

 I think Jungle book will do extremely well, its has that "Life of Pi" appeal! (If Jungle Book opens on Apr 22nd instead, it will be more fun, 5-1 Labour Day competition). =)

Cool. I thought LHF would do similar to GOE and TJB may not perform well ...

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Zootopia is not only "likely" to do $100m, it will OBVIOUSLY fly past it.

 

BTW, records ZOO has set so far:

biggest Animation opening weekend from Disney/Pixar 

biggest Animation opening week from Disney/Pixar 

2nd biggest Animation opening weekend behind only KFP3

2nd biggest Animation opening week behind only KFP3

biggest nonsequel Animation opening weekend/week

5th biggest single day gross for Animation behind KFP3's first three days and Minions' opening Sunday

Edited March 7, 2016 by firedeep

[Lihongkim]

13 hours ago, firedeep said:

China Box Office Week 9 (2.29-3.6), 2016
Rank	Title	Distributor	Gross (RMB/M)	Gross ($/M)	Change	Total (RMB/M)	Total ($/M)	Days
1	Ip Man 3 (3D) 叶问3	Da Yinmu	¥468.0	$71.45	NEW	¥468.0	$71.45	3

The fudge on IPM3 is screwing up everything ... pathetic behavior by Shi Jianxiang ...

I wonder what is actual number of Ip Man 3's OW? more or less than 400M? Fuck!!! there is no need to fudge its bo. It's already the fastest (Kung Fu) movie to 1). break 100M+ OD, 2). gross 100M+ single day, 3). pass 100M+ in March. They themselves ruin its quality. Anything above 100M USD is a big success for Kung Fu movie. Do they want to top Mermaid? It's so fucking ridiculous. I would prefer it flop rather than flatting BO. Hope there is no more Ip Man movie. 

Edited March 7, 2016 by Lihongkim

[sgchn40]

5 minutes ago, Lihongkim said:

I wonder what is actual number of Ip Man 3's OW? more or less than 400M? Fuck!!! there is no need to fudge its bo. It's already the fastest (Kung Fu) movie to 1). break 100M+ OD, 2). gross 100M+ single day, 3). pass 100M+ in March. They themselves ruin its quality. Anything above 100M USD is a big success for Kung Fu movie. Do they want to top Mermaid? It's so fucking ridiculous. It would prefer it flop rather than flatting BO. Hope there is no more Ip Man movie. 

 

I am interested in whether Shi Jianxing would be apprehended for public fraud. 

Edited March 7, 2016 by sgchn40

[Olive]

I think more than 120m YUAN was fudged for the opening weekend.

[druv10]

Zootopia is at 16.5M already. 30M (-58%)will happen and could push 35M  (-51%) for today. Legs are already kick in.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Yep, IPM3 estimatedly had some 100m~150m yuan fudged last weekend ...

 

1 hour ago, sgchn40 said:

 

I am interested in whether Shi Jianxing would be apprehended for public fraud. 

The film Bureau yesterday just annouced that it will crack down box office fudges. But for now, Shi is safe. It's hard to determine the box office fudge as something illegal in the current situation. Plus, he can easily blame the fugde to someone else as he is not directly involved. But his P2P business is a real, dangerous time bomb ...

[sgchn40]

54 minutes ago, firedeep said:

Yep, IPM3 estimatedly had some 100m~150m yuan fudged last weekend ...

 

The film Bureau yesterday just annouced that it will crack down box office fudges. But for now, Shi is safe. It's hard to determine the box office fudge as something illegal in the current situation. Plus, he can easily blame the fugde to someone else as he is not directly involved. But his P2P business is a real, dangerous time bomb ...

 

Can you explain how it works and why he wants to manipulate boxi office?

[Olive]

18 minutes ago, sgchn40 said:

 

Can you explain how it works and why he wants to manipulate boxi office?

Money Laundering

[Bluebomb]

2 hours ago, Lihongkim said:

I wonder what is actual number of Ip Man 3's OW? more or less than 400M? Fuck!!! there is no need to fudge its bo. It's already the fastest (Kung Fu) movie to 1). break 100M+ OD, 2). gross 100M+ single day, 3). pass 100M+ in March. They themselves ruin its quality. Anything above 100M USD is a big success for Kung Fu movie. Do they want to top Mermaid? It's so fucking ridiculous. I would prefer it flop rather than flatting BO. Hope there is no more Ip Man movie. 

There really is no need to manipulate its box office when it will make more than twice or triple its budget from China alone without fudging.

 

Please don't associate the fudging of Ip Man 3's box office to wishing death to the franchise or the quality of the film. The Ip Man franchise is a highly respectable series in which many Chinese love the films. Yes, this is a black eye on Ip Man 3 but it should not be used as a target for the Ip Man franchise. The writers/director/actors did nothing wrong and the quality of their work should be respected.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

17 minutes ago, sgchn40 said:

 

Can you explain how it works and why he wants to manipulate boxi office?

I dont know how the fudge works in detail but in summary, through secret deals made between his distributon company Da Yinmu and many of the big theater chains ( for instance, Shanghai United Circuit, China Film South Cinema Circuit, China Film Stellar Theater Chain, —— all state-run chains, ironically...), Shi himself bought millions of tickets for IPM3 to inflat the film's box office, by doing this, it is speculated that he can therefore increase his P2P business and even the stock price of his company. Shi's P2P sector has a fund that relates to the PRC box office performance of IPM3. The higher the film's box office goes, the higher ROI that fund produces on paper, eventually attracting more investors for him. Some criticize that Shi is running a Ponzi scheme by lining up box office with P2P. But I am not here to judge that part.

 

 

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Guys, ZOO is looking at a 35M Monday ! barely down 50% when the normal drrop should be 80%.

 

35/50/30/27/40/100/90, it is shaping up to be a 370m week, even going by conservative projection.