China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[MattW]

http://qz.com/498184/chinas-latest-patriotic-blockbuster-film-is-a-39-million-box-office-sham/

 

The ratios of screenings and admissions in this article suggest as much as $20m shifted from T5 to Hundred Regiments (if all screenings were equally full and if it didn't shift from any other movies as well, both big ifs).

[terrestrial]

China Box Office

#CemeteryofSplendour manages to both lull you into a trance and jar you awake with its languid, dreamy pace. Phenomenal movie #NYFF

[jiangsen]

China Box Office

#CemeteryofSplendour manages to both lull you into a trance and jar you awake with its languid, dreamy pace. Phenomenal movie #NYFF

This is a Thai movie...

[The Dark Alfred]

Nice to see MI5 doing better than Minions in China. Many expected Minions to dominate. MI5 will easily outgross Pixels of course over the weekend.

[Moviedweeb]

Will MI5 still hit $150m? The underperformance of Minions and Pixels, although targeting different groups, seems to boad well for this.

[The Dark Alfred]

It will hit 150m with ease.

[KP1025]

Yeah, if it does not match my projection this weekend and hit by LiHK next weekend, then under 500M yuan is likely.

As a Minions hater, I'm really surprised by its performance..

 

It would truly be a shock if China doesn't even end up as the #1 OS market for Minions.

[Infernus]

Whatever for minions. I am still not dramatically lowering my predictions for KFP3. Below 350m would still be a disappointment for me and I am still expecting it to be among the top 2 (or at min top 3 grossers for next year). Do you guys think the top movies of next year will be below this year's top ones? That isn't even possible right now. We're you guys basing KFP3's performance on how minions will perform? Coz I definitely wasn't. I was and am still basing its performance on how much the top movies of the year are making and not on how the other animated movies are doing for this isn't in their league. And what about the fact that's it getting released nearly at the same time here as everywhere else and also on a very good date? I just read this guy who was earlier predicting 500m for it and actually fighting with all those saying otherwise saying that he doesn't think it's going above the 250-300 range anymore. How easily can you guys be wavered? It really kind of proves these guys just put out random numbers or go with the whatever others are saying and makes it more and more difficult to really take such guys seriously..

Edited September 17, 2015 by Infernus

[POTUS 2020]

		JW					MI5
Day	Yn	Daily % +/-	Last Week	Tot	$Tot	Yn	Daily % +/-	Last Week	Tot	$Tot
Tues						117			117	18
Wed	107			107	17	78	-33.3%		195	31
Thur	77	-28.0%		184	30	64	-17.9%		259	41
Fri	97	26.0%		281	45	76	18.8%		335	53
Sat	168	73.2%		449	72	128	68.4%		463	73
Sun	145	-13.7%		594	96	88	-31.3%		551	87
Mon	55	-62.1%		649	105	30	-65.9%		581	91
Tues	50	-9.1%		699	113	25	-16.7%	-78.6%	606	95
Wed	45	-10.0%	-57.9%	744	120	22	-12.0%	-71.8%	628	99
Thur	40	-11.1%	-48.1%	784	126	20	-9.1%	-68.8%	648	102	est
Fri	60	50.0%	-38.1%	844	136	25	25.0%	-67.1%	673	106	proj
Sat	120	100.0%	-28.6%	964	155	42	68.0%	-67.2%	715	112	proj
Sun	90	-25.0%	-37.9%	1054	170	30	-28.6%	-65.9%	745	117	proj
Mon	55	-38.9%		1109	179	12	-60.0%	-60.0%	757	119	proj
Tues	50	-9.1%		1159	187	10.5	-12.5%	-58.0%	768	121	proj
Wed	45	-10.0%	0.0%	1204	194	9.5	-9.5%	-56.8%	777	122	proj
Thur	40	-11.1%	0.0%	1244	201	8.5	-10.5%	-57.5%	786	124	proj
				1400	229			875	-925	137	-145

Its going to need to hold -60% this weekend  to get to $150m. So far -66% looks to be in the cards unless it really pops off of Thursday

 

Using 10-11x Day2 + OD looks like its going to work for this MI5 as other action movies. OD can be skewed and hard to tell if it will be 5x or 6x or 7x. and we're multiplying a much larger number that can throw things further off  Day 2 is tighter for projecting

 

10x D2 +OD  900m

11x D2 +OD  975m

 

14-15x D2 +OD is looking to be the formula for family movies

That puts Minions at 480m-505m

[POTUS 2020]

Whatever for minions. I am still not dramatically lowering my predictions for KFP3. Below 350m would still be a disappointment for me and I am still expecting it to be among the top 2 (or at min top 3 grossers for next year). Do you guys think the top movies of next year will be below this year's top ones? That isn't even possible right now. We're you guys basing KFP3's performance on how minions will perform? Coz I definitely wasn't. I was and am still basing its performance on how much the top movies of the year are making and not on how the other animated movies are doing for this isn't in their league. And what about the fact that's it getting released nearly at the same time here as everywhere else and also on a very good date? I just read this guy who was earlier predicting 500m for it and actually fighting with all those saying otherwise saying that he doesn't think it's going above the 250-300 range anymore. How easily can you guys be wavered? It really kind of proves these guys just put out random numbers or go with the whatever others are saying and makes it more and more difficult to really take such guys seriously..

We just need to take into consideration that toons just havent gone to these big live action levels. That's why minions was over forecasted. So KFP3 shoudnt  be forecasted to exceed 400m just because it should beat this years record breakers, FF7 MH, due to expected market growth. The market will be up 250% since KFP2 was released. That would make it $320m, but it was a huge breakout hit above all other toons at 92m and could take a step backwards like AOU did in domestic or third installments of many franchises like shrek, PotC and HG. That puts it in the mid 200m's after adjusting for market growth and taking a "hit" so to speak. And that makes sense. That would be more than 50% over TMK which is a big leap into record territory.

 

250-325m is a reasonable expectation with all the competition it will face and if it lacks WOM it could be lower. You have to remember not all sequels are slam dunks when it comes big numbers. WOM makes a movie a true blockbuster and "the mob is fickle, brother"- Gladiator

[MinaTakla]

We just need to take into consideration that toons just havent gone to these big live action levels. That's why minions was over forecasted. So KFP3 shoudnt  be forecasted to exceed 400m just because it should beat this years record breakers, FF7 MH, due to expected market growth. The market will be up 250% since KFP2 was released. That would make it $320m, but it was a huge breakout hit above all other toons at 92m and could take a step backwards like AOU did in domestic or third installments of many franchises like shrek, PotC and HG. That puts it in the mid 200m's after adjusting for market growth and taking a "hit" so to speak. And that makes sense. That would be more than 50% over TMK which is a big leap into record territory.

 

250-325m is a reasonable expectation with all the competition it will face and if it lacks WOM it could be lower. You have to remember not all sequels are slam dunks when it comes big numbers. WOM makes a movie a true blockbuster and "the mob is fickle, brother"- Gladiator

This is the best analysis I've read for KFP3 and Minions in China.

[Olive]

Monster Hunt ended its run with 2438M yuan.

[Infernus]

We just need to take into consideration that toons just havent gone to these big live action levels. That's why minions was over forecasted. So KFP3 shoudnt be forecasted to exceed 400m just because it should beat this years record breakers, FF7 MH, due to expected market growth. The market will be up 250% since KFP2 was released. That would make it $320m, but it was a huge breakout hit above all other toons at 92m and could take a step backwards like AOU did in domestic or third installments of many franchises like shrek, PotC and HG. That puts it in the mid 200m's after adjusting for market growth and taking a "hit" so to speak. And that makes sense. That would be more than 50% over TMK which is a big leap into record territory.

250-325m is a reasonable expectation with all the competition it will face and if it lacks WOM it could be lower. You have to remember not all sequels are slam dunks when it comes big numbers. WOM makes a movie a true blockbuster and "the mob is fickle, brother"- Gladiator

Yeah, animated movies still haven't reached the level of live action movies even now and yet KFP2 was the highest grossing movie of its year back on 2011... That is exactly what I'm saying. KFP3 is simply above the level of other animated movies. It is not to be compared with them or gauged by their current level. Instead it is to be compared with what the top movies of the year are making. And as for WOM, yeah it's absolutely necessary for a movie to have really good WOM to reach some numbers. My predictions are based on the belief that the movie would be a good one and especially made to suit the Chinese taste. In the end I do realize it is completely possible for it end up at much lower than I expect it to and disappoint like AOU in US but that's what I am saying-if it does end up at close to just 250 it will and should be considered a disappointment just like AOU was considered a disappointment at 450m in the US. 250-300 while a definitely possible range, will not be one I 'expect' for it but what I'll be considering as the possible 'disappointment' range for it. Edited September 17, 2015 by Infernus

[Olive]

My projections:

Thur  13.3M  -15%

Fri  20M +50%

Sat 56M +180%

Sun 50M -11%

320-325m after Sunday.

week 3 130m(Lost in Hongkong opening)

week 4 50m(Several big local movies on that Wed)

week 5 25m(Inside out opening)

Will end up 520-530M, around what BH6 made.

Thursday est

MI5 - 20.4M/649M

Minions - 13.5M/195M

Pixels - 7.8M/31.4M

Assassination - 4.3M OD

[fmpro]

Monster Hunt ended its run with 2438M yuan.

And FF7 ended with?

[Olive]

And FF7 ended with?

2426m

[Mojoguy]

What's the exchange rate for the yuan and USD right now? 6.33?

[peludo]

What's the exchange rate for the yuan and USD right now? 6.33?

6.36

[MrFanaticGuy34]

I wouldn't be too disappointed if KFP3 only makes around $250-300M in China. After all, it will still be a huge feat.

And with that gross, it would actually beat IA3 & IA4, WW & OS-wise, overall.

Edited September 17, 2015 by MrFanaticGuy34

[POTUS 2020]

I have MH at 391.1 using daily adjusted XR. was 6.21 for 80% of the revenue early in the run, 6.36-6.42 at the end

FF7 was 390 and change at a consistent rate of $1=6.21

asterisk time FF7;

* had only 4 full weekends

* had 30 days vs 60

* was released during a slow month after busy season

^ made $15m its last 7 days. would have made at least $10-15m more

* ice cream sundae served at theaters without fudge