China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[KP1025]

$80 million locked for Minions? Saturday increase looks very good.

Edited September 19, 2015 by KP1025

[Asyulus]

$80 million locked for Minions? Saturday increase looks very good.

150m for MI5 locked.

Nothing is ever a lock in box office.

[POTUS 2020]

Frozen would have done about 210-215 million in Japan if it had been released today. Maybe it did not have the best exchange rate but it did not have the worst either. There have been films quite more damaged because of exchange rates (2001-2002 period and today films, for example)

it was below frozen's level(105) for only 2.5 years total in history. Dollar has slid from 300yen to a low of 75  over a 35 year period. Its average is about 125 for the last 20 years. 2002 saw 135 for brief time. Titanic got worst XR in the last 20 years as it neared 150 during its run but paid 125 for part of it.

So this rate is close to the mean. Frozen actually benefited better than the average.  TS3, Avatar and the Avengers just got lucky with their timing

[peludo]

I meant general exchanges rates, not just Japan (basically Euro, which was by far the biggest market 15 years ago). Frozen was indeed benefited in Japan since it grossed more dollars than, for example, Spirited Away, although this film remains to be the biggest film ever there.

[Olive]

Sunday est

Minions - 43.2M/319M

MI5 - 39.1M/766M

Pixels - 16.1M/77.2M

Assassination - 8.1M /24.9m

[fmpro]

Nothing is ever a lock in box office.

Sure there is...

I LOCK that SW7 makes over 20 mill WW

[Eleven]

My projections:

Thur  13.3M  -15% 13,7

Fri  20M +50% 23,5

Sat 56M +180% 57

Sun 50M -11% 42,5

320-325m after Sunday. 320

week 3 130m(Lost in Hongkong opening)

week 4 50m(Several big local movies on that Wed)

week 5 25m(Inside out opening)

Will end up 520-530M, around what BH6 made.

 

Congrats, extremely accurate prediction.

[POTUS 2020]

Sure there is...

I LOCK that SW7 makes over 20 mill WW

Comet could hit after the first show on OD. $12m and we're all dead

 

Decent holds today, 50%~ w/o/w. $75m/475m and $150m/950m not locked, but reachable, may be the ceiling on these two with the upcoming theater loss.

[Olive]

Monday est

MI5 - 13.3M/779M

Minions - 8M/328M

Pixels - 4.85M/82M

Assassination - 4M /28.8m

[Olive]

My forecast for top 2:

     MI5  Minions

T  13.0     7.5

W 11.5     6.2

Th 10.0    5.8

F   8.0      6.0

S   15.0    15.0

S   12.0    11.0

     850m    380m

Edited September 21, 2015 by Kylin Zhang

[Finnick]

My forecast for top 2:

     MI5  Minions

T  13.0     7.5

W 11.5     6.2

Th 10.0    5.8

F   8.0      6.0

S   15.0    15.0

S   12.0    11.0

     850m    380m

Any projection for MI5 and Minions final tally?

[MinaTakla]

Interesting - the UK might beat China in becoming Minions' #1 OS market with 72m/73m finish for Minions in the UK..

This will make Minions the only major blockbuster film in the last 2 years to have its #1 OS market a country that's not China. Last one was 2013's Frozen. 

Edited September 21, 2015 by MinaTakla

[Eleven]

Interesting - the UK might beat China in becoming Minions' #1 OS market with 72m/73m finish for Minions in the UK..

This will make Minions the only major blockbuster film in the last 2 years to have its #1 OS market a country that's not China. Last one was 2013's Frozen. 

And Frozen make more in SK than Minions in China

[KP1025]

I still can't believe that weeks ago, we were discussing $150 million as the floor for Minions (with possible breakout to $200+ million). Quite unexpected that we're now saying $75 million is the ceiling for it. 

[Finnick]

@ Kylin Zhang, any projection for Ant-Man and IO?

[Olive]

Tuesday est

MI5 - 12.8M/793M

Minions - 6.8M/335M

Pixels - 4.5M/87M

Assassination - 4.1M /33m

 

@ Kylin Zhang, any projection for Ant-Man and IO?

Ant-man  60-80M

IO 25-35M

[Finnick]

 

Tuesday est

MI5 - 12.8M/793M

Minions - 6.8M/335M

Pixels - 4.5M/87M

Assassination - 4.1M /33m

 

Ant-man  60-80M

IO 25-35M

 

THANK YOU

[Eleven]

It seems that Minions in China, even if isn't a flop in itself, could be a big disappointment for Universal, seeing the high expectations and the strength of the marketing. At the end, they can lose money there.

[Olive]

It seems that Minions in China, even if isn't a flop in itself, could be a big disappointment for Universal, seeing the high expectations and the strength of the marketing. At the end, they can lose money there.

They thought Minions could be released in late August like HTTYD2 last year, so they starts marketing quite early.

The buzz died down and piracy also hurt it.

[MrFanaticGuy34]

There should be a new lesson for future Hollywood zeitgeist-blockbusters. Never release way too late in China....otherwise piracy will hurt it there.

And never pick bad release slots, where it has no chance to make money there.

Edited September 22, 2015 by MrFanaticGuy34