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China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

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is there any possibility that IO > Minions...we definitely know WOM will be much better

I think Kylin said that it will depend on its showtimes which might be less than 40% and its competition with a number of local films opening before it and with Antman coming after 10 days (I don't think Little prince will affect it but Antman might because of the screen count and not the film itself)

Am thinking a finish of 65m for Minions and 50m for IO and around 90m for Antman.

If IO makes 50m, it will pass 900m WW for sure. If it makes 80m in China, it might actually have a shot to finish above Nemo's 936m but it's a bit early to tell.

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Thursday estimates
MI5 - 10.8M/816M
LIHK - 10M Midnights, best for a local movie and its 2D only
Minions - 5.4M/347M
Pixels - 3.5M/94.5M
Assassination 3.4M/40.2M
 
Friday showtimes
LiHK 60%
The Third Way of Love 14.4%
Minions 8%
MI5 7.8%
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Guys, even 15% showtimes for an animated film is A LOT. That's easily more than 4000 screens, more than the total screens of UK or Korea ...

 

Apparently it will play leggy and the its total BO will mostly depend on how it connects with audience in China, not showtimes. And I don't its animation compitetors are strong enough.

Edited by firedeep
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Well, Minions had no animation competitors and it turned out much lower than what we think. And that was due to release date, showtimes, overestimation of gross, piracy, late release and other factors. Now that I think of it, with 40% showtimes, Minions couldn't cross 120m yuan on opening day so it makes it tougher for other films with lesser showtimes.

Some of these factors, mainly the release date, the competition with local films/showtimes, apply to IO as well.

Firedeep - you even thought MI5 is hitting 200m no question about it and Minions 125m and both films underperformed and will be hit very hard by local films. So the Antman/IO combo are not that safe from an underpeformance either.

Edited by MinaTakla
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Minions per show attendance in past workdays was just pathetic. It didnt do more, not because it didn't get enough showtimes, but because only a very limited number of audience went to see it.

 

Quality and brand matters much than showtimes, competitors or anything else. Minions was just unwatchable IMO.

Edited by firedeep
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Minions per show attendance in past workdays was just pathetic. It didnt do more, not because it didn't get enough showtimes, but because only a very limited number of audience went to see it.

 

Quality and brand matters much than showtimes, competitors or anything else. Minions was just unwatchable IMO.

If it was about the WOM/quality only, Minions wouldn't have crossed a billion and had good legs everywhere overseas with its so-so reviews everywhere..especially in Japan which has a very sophisticated audience..

I think quality is not the reason why it didn't do more. And MI5 is a great example of that too...very well received but much lower gross too..Both films will end up with around half or 60% of their predicted grosses in China. MI5's WOM was better than FF7 and JW for instance but we all saw where that ended..

It will be interesting to see what's next for Hollywood films in October. 

Edited by MinaTakla
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Minions per show attendance in past workdays was just pathetic. It didnt do more, not because it didn't get enough showtimes, but because only a very limited number of audience went to see it.

 

Quality and brand matters much than showtimes, competitors or anything else. Minions was just unwatchable IMO.

Again, Minions failed to hit that third and fourth tier city audience, that's why it did so poorly. I really hope some of the Chinese members on this forum can speak to the taste differences across China. 

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Again, Minions failed to hit that third and fourth tier city audience, that's why it did so poorly. I really hope some of the Chinese members on this forum can speak to the taste differences across China. 

That seems to be the best explanation - agreed. Not quality and not brand. Plus a 60-65m result for Minions isn't a flop for a Hollywood animated films in China (it will be only lower than KFP2 and BH6 and Ice Age 3 I think)? So not a flop but not a wow result by any means either...Not what everyone expected.

And maybe MI5 didn't connect too with 3/4th tier audiences who wanted more action? Maybe..

This means that maybe Antman has the best chance of a big gross. Not IO or Little Prince which are less action and more story and value.

Not sure about Spectre and Star Wars but I don't think they are safe from an MI5 case.

Edited by MinaTakla
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22 September:

 

China Box Office

Weekly #ChinaBoxOffice Preview: Can 'Lost In Hong Kong' Top 'Lost In Thailand'? http://pro.boxoffice.com/latest-news/2015-09-22-weekly-chinese-box-office-preview-can-lost-in-hong-kong-top-lost-in-thailand 

 

China Box Office

 #MissionImpossibleRogueNation ($124.4M) became the highest grossing 2D imported film of all-time today passing Interstellar.

 

 

23 September:

 

Content in China

Paul Rudd, director Peyton Reed in Shanghai for premiere of 'Ant-Man' ahead of 10/16 domestic theatrical release

 

China Box Office

#MissionImpossible #RogueNation took in est. $1.8M on Wednesday. China's total stands at $125.9M

 

China Box Office

@Minions earned est. $1.0M on Wednesday. China's total stands at $53.4M.

 

China Box Office

@PixelsMovie earned est. $0.6M on Wednesday. China's total is $14.2M

 

Variety Asia

"Lost in Hong Kong" reviewed http://variety.com/2015/film/reviews/film-review-lost-in-hong-kong-1201598166/ 

 

 

today:

 

China Box Office

#MissionImpossible #RogueNation took in est. $1.7M on Thursday. China's total stands at $127.8M

 

China Box Office @ChinaBoxOffice

 @Minions earned est. $0.8M on Thursday. China's total stands at $54.4M.

 

China Box Office

@PixelsMovie earned est. $0.5M on Thursday. China's total is $14.8M.

 
China Box Office

#LostInHongKong's est. $1.6M from Thursday midnight screenings is a record high for a domestic film as well as any 2D film.

 

China Box Office

Directors Pete Doctor, Ronaldo Del Carmen and producer Jonas Rivera were in Shanghai today promoting #InsideOut

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Again, Minions failed to hit that third and fourth tier city audience, that's why it did so poorly. I really hope some of the Chinese members on this forum can speak to the taste differences across China. 

Animations tanking in third and fourth tier cities is no news. It's just what happens always. Only animations did well there were KFP2 and TMK. Even BH6, with north of $80m, did not do well in smaller cities.

 

Something like this:

 

In smaller cities:

local films in general are much more popular than imported films

live action films in general are much more popular than animated films

actions/explosions, sci-fi destructions and local comedies/youth films in general are much more popular than whatever dramas

 

Now let's get some examples for the biggest box office cities:

Films like Wolf Totem / Jianbing Man dominated Beijing and other northern cities

Films like Macao 2 / Tiny Times owned Guangzhou/Shenzhen and other southern cities

Films like Mission 5 / BH6/ TMK fruited in Shanghai and other coastal cities

Edited by firedeep
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Animations tanking in third and fourth tier cities is no news. It's just what happens always. Only animations did well there were KFP2 and TMK. Even BH6, with north of $80m, did not do well in smaller cities.

 

Something like this:

 

In smaller cities:

local films in general are much more popular than imported films

live action films in general are much more popular than animated films

actions/explosions, sci-fi destructions and local comedies/youth films in general are much more popular than whatever dramas

 

Now let's get some examples for the biggest box office cities:

Films like Wolf Totem / Jianbing Man dominated Beijing and other northern cities

Films like Macao 2 / Tiny Times owned Guangzhou/Shenzhen and other southern cities

Films like Mission 5 / BH6/ TMK fruited in Shanghai and other coastal cities

What is TMK? sorry!!!!

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