China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[MinaTakla]

11 minutes ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

 

I understand you want it to do well....i want it to do well too.....but my point is that......people overseas cares mostly about to see their own dubbed versions, it's not always English.

 

It's not gonna impact OS to a degree of mass underperformance.....since, like i said before, people want to see the dubbed versions.

 

You may think otherwsie but that doesn't necessarily mean that you will be 100% right....if it happens...

Speaking about the Middle East where I come from, there's no such thing as a dubbed version. So piracy will hurt it if it's screened here 2 months late which it will.

That's why it's a very wrong move by DW.

It will affect markets in the region here which could have been avoided by better scheduling.

[efialtes76]

5 minutes ago, MinaTakla said:

Speaking about the Middle East where I come from, there's no such thing as a dubbed version. So piracy will hurt it if it's screened here 2 months late which it will.

That's why it's a very wrong move by DW.

It will affect markets in the region here which could have been avoided by better scheduling.

Piracy effect is inflated imo.

You can see The Revenant on your screen and the movie is a big success everywhere,

 

[MinaTakla]

Just now, efialtes76 said:

Piracy effect is inflated imo.

You can see The Revenant on your screen and the movie is a big success everywhere,

 

I think it depends on whether the movie is being seen as a must-see cinema experience such as The Revenant or a 'just watch it anywhere' film.

Peanuts for instance was severely affected in the Middle East because it was released a month and a half later. It grossed even less than The Little Prince cuz everyone had seen it already

[MrFanaticGuy34]

13 minutes ago, MinaTakla said:

Speaking about the Middle East where I come from, there's no such thing as a dubbed version. So piracy will hurt it if it's screened here 2 months late which it will.

That's why it's a very wrong move by DW.

It will affect markets in the region here which could have been avoided by better scheduling.

 

You think will piracy will hurt it, because you don't get the logic......people OS, don't care that much of English dubs....to only watch that dub.

 

Almost every country in the world gets dubbed all the time...that's how it is for animated films. And people would rather want to see the dubbed version over original dub, anyday.

 

You just assume it will disappoint like every other animated film we got these past months....

Edited January 27, 2016 by MrFanaticGuy34

[MinaTakla]

1 minute ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

 

You think will piracy will hurt it, because you don't get the logic......people OS, don't care that much of English dubs....to only watch that dub.

 

Almost every country in the world gets dubbed all the time...that's how it is for animated films. And people would rather want to see the dubbed version over original dub, anyday.

 

You just assume it will disappoint like every other animated film we got these months....

No what am saying is that there are no dubbed versions here in the region. Only English versions get released. No other dubbed versions.

And that's what happened with Peanuts. Everyone saw it priated and it grossed even less here than the little prince due to poor scheduling.

By the region I mean MENA which is around 20 countries.

Edited January 27, 2016 by MinaTakla

[TigerPaw]

7 minutes ago, MinaTakla said:

I think it depends on whether the movie is being seen as a must-see cinema experience such as The Revenant or a 'just watch it anywhere' film.

Peanuts for instance was severely affected in the Middle East because it was released a month and a half later. It grossed even less than The Little Prince cuz everyone had seen it already

Agreed. Eg: Inside Out is a film that was carried by WOM, and people are telling each other to watch it in theaters. Therefore films  like Inside Out are relativeily unknown, until people spread the good WOM and people head tot the theater, to watch it.
While KFP have a lot of fans anticipating and everyone knows about it, and such films which is usually not carried by WOM... if people stumble upon it online, they will watch it.

As i mentioned, I don't think the impact will be terrible, but there will definitely be some impact imo. A worldwide schronized date will be good. I mean of course I know some countries eg: UK where piracy is not rampant, people will still want to watch the movie in theaters but for many developing countries in Asia and Middle East, piracy's impact is huge.

Eg: Malaysia, Pirated DVDs are literally sold beside the movie theater, at 1/3 the price of movie tickets... I saw Mojin being sold on Dec 30th while its release date in Msia is Jan 14th.. crazy. 

Edited January 27, 2016 by TigerPaw

[MrFanaticGuy34]

25 minutes ago, MinaTakla said:

No what am saying is that there are no dubbed versions here in the region. Only English versions get released. No other dubbed versions.

And that's what happened with Peanuts. Everyone saw it priated and it grossed even less here than the little prince due to poor scheduling.

 

But the thing here....that OS audiences DON'T want to see the English dub yet....before they see the dubbed versions in theaters. And i'm talking about the rest of the world, not just where you come from.

 

I'm not buying the argument of "Oh, but OS-audience want to see the English dub version for free" No.....they're waiting for the dub versions theatrically first.

 

And Peanuts didn't underperform only because of piracy......there were other movies people wanted to see that time, also instead.....Spectre, TGD, Hunger Games: MJ2, SW: Force Awakens. Tough competition killed Peanuts legs, also.....not just piracy.

 

It's not like The Expendables 3....where piracy hurt that movie both U.S and some overseas markets......and also, people did not like that movie beforehand. Bad buzz & WOM killed that movie's legs. (Yeah a different movie comparison, but you get my point)

Edited January 27, 2016 by MrFanaticGuy34

[POTUS 2020]

I'm thinking because it is a family movie not as many will rush to see it on OD.  JW hit more demos than AOU  or FF7.  It only opened to 110m on a wed. Half of AOU. It exploded on saturday. KFP3 will skew younger than JW. 

If it opens to just 110m it could be well over a 100% increase and have a 500m+ weekend, 250m midweek and with good WOM hold -40% like JW and MH for 300m more. With that kind of hold it will hold close to 10% of screens during CNY and make 50m+ per day. It will more than the usual 30 day release. If it's liked it will have plenty of time to make money. TMK ran for 2 months.

If it has a typical 60% drop it will lose a lot of screens and $200M will be a struggle.

I hope it's the former. Would be nice to see strong hold and a great run.

How is WOM so far  after previews?

[POTUS 2020]

Midnight 34 hours before OD shows begin 

SW7 27m

KFP3 16.6m

 

SW7  had 72m in pre-sales and totaled 195m 2.7x

Looking for 2.25x for kfp3.

Gotta get to at least 50m in PS to score a 500m+  weekend

 

 

[terrestrial]

China Film Insider ‏@china_film

China’s video hosting sites hit by content ban - via @FinancialTimes http://goo.gl/9lLoQY 

[A Marvel Fanboy]

21 hours ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

 

Do you think WOM for KFP3 will be better than SW EP7's WOM in China?

definitely

13 hours ago, quigquag33 said:

Is 'The Good Dinosaur' being released in China?

No. As @bangbingchan mentioned, Zootopia has just set Mar 4th release date.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

100% Sat/fri increase will be very hard, more like 60~80%, since students are on break.

[TigerPaw]

34 minutes ago, firedeep said:

 As @bangbingchan mentioned, Zootopia has just set Mar 4th release date.

Same release date as Ip Man 3.

Disney managed to get a day and date release..wow!

How's the buzz like for Zootopia? How much threat does it pose for Ip Man 3?

Edited January 28, 2016 by TigerPaw

[bangbingchan]

48 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

Same release date as Ip Man 3.

Disney managed to get a day and date release..wow!

How's the buzz like for Zootopia? How much threat does it pose for Ip Man 3?

Zootopia is a family film.It won't threat IP man 3 much.Different films for different people.And Animated film has a limit in China.

 

But I think Zootopia will impact KFP3 OS-C in March.The privacy dvd cant impact much.Animation will have a competition for family audience in March.That's the reason I agree dreamwork should have released KFP3 in Jan or Feb,not 2 months later.OS-C competition will be sharp in March.Besides Panda it's a film for CNY.Some OS-C areas which have Spring festival is more suitable for Feb.8.

Edited January 28, 2016 by bangbingchan

[A Marvel Fanboy]

1 hour ago, TigerPaw said:

Same release date as Ip Man 3.

Disney managed to get a day and date release..wow!

How's the buzz like for Zootopia? How much threat does it pose for Ip Man 3?

Evil Disney is strong presence in China, the biggest Hollywood entertainment company in China now and in foreseeable future.

 

I think Zootopia looks to be a global hit and should do well in China too, co-exsiting with IPM3.

23 minutes ago, bangbingchan said:

Zootopia is a family film.It won't threat IP man 3 much.Different films for different people.And Animated film has a limit in China.

 

But I think Zootopia will impact KFP3 OS-C in March.The privacy dvd cant impact much.Animation will have a competition for family audience in March.That's the reason I agree dreamwork should have released KFP3 in Jan or Feb,not 2 months later.OS-C competition will be sharp in March.Besides Panda it's a film for CNY.Some OS-C areas which have Spring festival is more suitable for Feb.8.

Agreed. Zoo will eat into Po's box office in Mar. wont be surprised if it does more than Po worldwide.

[Lihongkim]

Local animated film Mr. Nian release Feb.8. Could be a hit? It's possible. 

[A Marvel Fanboy]

2 minutes ago, Lihongkim said:

Local animated film Mr. Nian release Feb.8. Could be a hit? It's possible. 

Maoyan will be pushing it. looks like a cheap production though ...

[TigerPaw]

9 hours ago, firedeep said:

Maoyan will be pushing it. looks like a cheap production though ...

 

CNY this year is not as fun and exciting anymore. KFP3 looks to underperform this week... CTHD2 moves to Feb 19th. Lost in Pacific moves to tomorrow.

Huang Xiao Ming's journey to the west haven't appeared on Gewara..might change date?

NIAN SHOU DA ZHUO ZHAN.. doesn't look good.

 

Now its really 3 movies for the whole long spring break, i believe each of them will do extrenely well.

Edited January 28, 2016 by TigerPaw

[POTUS 2020]

Was looking at biggest day that BH6 and TMK had. Just 45m and 65m . Toons just don't have the upfront numbers live action does but these two had legs.

BH6 opened on a Saturday at 35m and bumped the following weekend. Then held -20% in its third weekend. 

TMK followed a similar pattern but with 50% larger numbers.

They finished with $84m and $148m.

PS at 34m and climbing still.  That guarantees at least 75m OD(double BH6 OD Sat) not sure how much higher at this time. Based on the other 2 movies we shouldn't look as much to the size of OD/OW, but more the 2nd WE hold. 

Edited January 28, 2016 by No Prisoners

[TigerPaw]

40 minutes ago, No Prisoners said:

Was looking at biggest day that BH6 and TMK had. Just 45m and 65m . Toons just don't have the upfront numbers live action does but these two had legs.

BH6 opened on a Saturday at 35m and bumped the following weekend. Then held -20% in its third weekend. 

TMK followed a similar pattern but with 50% larger numbers.

They finished with $90m and $148m.

PS at 34m and climbing still.  That guarantees at least 75m OD(double BH6 OD Sat) not sure how much higher at this time. Based on the other 2 movies we shouldn't look as much to the size of OD/OW, but more the 2nd WE hold. 

True, presales or OD under-performing doesn't affect animations as much as Live Action movies in general, however in the case of KFP3.. the 2nd weekend will be extremely scary in terms of screencounts. WOM may be good but if there are not enough showtimes or screens, nothing can save it... hopefully it opens big this weekend.