China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[druv10]

1 hour ago, Olive said:

40-45% drop from Tuesday

Thanks. So potentially 36-40M Wednesday. Presales of Zootopia has surpassed IP3. 

[Infernus]

This feels good after the KFP3 disaster  

[seduh]

WOW at Zootopia. It's amazing how China can be an incredible frontloaded country or a leggy one. 

[sgchn40]

3 hours ago, seduh said:

WOW at Zootopia. It's amazing how China can be an incredible frontloaded country or a leggy one. 

 

Let's see if it can beat IM3 today

[POTUS 2020]

10:00

Zoo. 17m

IP3.  16m

 

IP3 has stronger evenings, it will be a close race. Not sure about the multi here for ladies day, 70m looks possible

 

[A Marvel Fanboy]

1B has been possible since a couple of days ago. At the moment, it's basically locked. 

[A Marvel Fanboy]

6 hours ago, Infernus said:

This feels good after the KFP3 disaster  

Only to prove again how terrible KFP3 performed due to the worst choice of release date: just one month later, Panda is going to be upset by an original title coming out of nowhere.

 

Can you imagine how the faces of Li Ruigang and JeffreyKatzenberg woud look like when they see all this ... 

Edited March 8, 2016 by firedeep

[POTUS 2020]

Poor katzenberg, sucks to be upset over lost bo revenue and be worth $1,000,000,000 at the same time.

[POTUS 2020]

1400

ZOO 35m

IP3.  27m

 

1400 mite be the midpoint for zoo. IP3 at 1500 maybe. 

Could be zoo 70m  IP3 65m 

Edited March 8, 2016 by No Prisoners

[druv10]

3 hours ago, No Prisoners said:

1400

ZOO 35m

IP3.  27m

 

1400 mite be the midpoint for zoo. IP3 at 1500 maybe. 

Could be zoo 70m  IP3 65m 

Yesterday Zoo went from 16 to 35M+ from 2 pm update with similar bump we're looking at 75-80M for today.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

ZOO currently is pacing for a 415m 2nd week, maybe more, if it hold great on Wed, Thursday and Friday.

 

So it is going to be at 155+415m=570m, at least, after the first two weekends. It has got five weeks without extension.

 

• Assuming 50% weekly drops throughout the end:
• it would do 155 + 415 + 200 +100 + 50 = 920m, without extension —— but Zoo has such great WOM, so it has no reason to suddenly "collapse" to 50% drops. this should be the absolutely worst scenario at the moment.
•  
• Assuming a 50% drop for the 3rd week but 30% drops for the rest two weeks:
• it would do 155 + 415 + 210 +150 + 100 = 1030m, without extension
•  
• Assuming a 30% drop for the 3rd week but 50% drops for the rest two weeks:
• it would do 155 + 415 + 290 +150 + 70 = 1080m, without extension
•  
• Assuming 30% weekly drops throughout the end: 
• it would do 155 + 415 + 290 +200 + 140 = 1220m, without extension

 

If it holds even greater and gets extended run, then ....

Edited March 8, 2016 by firedeep

[a2k]

1 hour ago, firedeep said:

ZOO currently is pacing for a 415m 2nd week, maybe more, if it hold great on Wed, Thursday and Friday.

 

So it is going to be at 155+415m=570m, at least, after the first two weekends. It has got five weeks without extension.

 

• Assuming 50% weekly drops throughout the end:
• it would do 155 + 415 + 200 +100 + 50 = 920m, without extension —— but Zoo has such great WOM, so it has no reason to suddenly "collapse" to 50% drops. this should be the absolutely worst scenario at the moment.
•  
• Assuming a 50% drop for the 3rd week but 30% drops for the rest two weeks:
• it would do 155 + 415 + 210 +150 + 100 = 1030m, without extension
•  
• Assuming a 30% drop for the 3rd week but 50% drops for the rest two weeks:
• it would do 155 + 415 + 290 +150 + 70 = 1080m, without extension
•  
• Assuming 30% weekly drops throughout the end: 
• it would do 155 + 415 + 290 +200 + 140 = 1220m, without extension

 

If it holds even greater and gets extended run, then ....

 

A rare run is on the cards...If it can whether BvS gracefully, 1.3b (200m usd) could happen.

From what you guys are saying, looks like expecting 1.14b (175m usd) is not unreasonable.

 

Panda and Zootopia swapped their fortunes.

Edited March 8, 2016 by a2knet

[TigerPaw]

Good for Zootopia, too bad for Ip Man 3. Ip Man 3 is a great film in its own right, even it came out during CNY, it would have been 2nd after Mermaid...

Now coming out with Zootopia, Zootopia's quality is so good that Ip MAn 3 which is an awesome movie in its own right..... looks average. Gosh.

[cannastop]

Can people on the ground tell me why Zootopia looks like a huge success in China?

 

I could guess for myself, but that would be patronizing and ignorant. Those are two qualities this movie tells us to avoid, actually.

Edited March 8, 2016 by cannastop

[A Marvel Fanboy]

30 minutes ago, TigerPaw said:

Good for Zootopia, too bad for Ip Man 3. Ip Man 3 is a great film in its own right, even it came out during CNY, it would have been 2nd after Mermaid...

Now coming out with Zootopia, Zootopia's quality is so good that Ip MAn 3 which is an awesome movie in its own right..... looks average. Gosh.

True. IP Man 3 could have done better but right now its thunder is being stolen by ZOO, a even more entertaining movie. Plus, the box office fraud is really pushing away many potential audience for it.

 

Then adding in Gods of Egypt, you can bet that IPM3 will have an ugly drop this weekend.

 

15 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Can people on the ground tell me why Zootopia looks like a huge success in China?

 

I could guess for myself, but that would be patronizing and ignorant. Those are two qualities this movie tells us to avoid, actually.

First it's a very good film (the story, the animation, the music, the gags, the message ... all good) with super adorable character designs which the audience are always fond of.

 

Box office is the combined result of the movie (quality, story, genre, cast, budget, etc) itself, release time (coming at the right or wrong time), market and competition status and audience feedback (WOM).  While WOM is greatly effected by expectation.

 

The Monkey King might only be a 6/10 grade movie in reality, but people had zero expectation for it (few knew its existence before the release; Chinese local animation is known as something absolutely awful in quality); it wowed the audience and was received as an 9/10 grade movie.

 

KFP3 was always expected as an at least 8/10 movie with DWA quality. It turned out to be 8/10 so normally it should have a normal run, doing a normal 1.5B or so. But it was killed by its release date, falling before 1B.

 

Few Chinese audience knew of ZOO before its opening weekend. But once the beast is released, its 9/10 quality quickly wowed the audience, and is being received by many as a nearly 10/10 movie.

 

The same theory also applies to other sleep hits at CBO such as Life of Pi, Goodbye Mr Loser, Lost in Thailand.

 

Jiang Wen's Gone With the Bullets was vastly hyped with a similar tone and similar quality to its predecessor Let the Bullets Fly but in fact, it's not such a case. It disappointed the audience by being something opposite to their expectation. As a result, audience rejected it in double force, leading to its total collapse at the box office.

 

The distributors and marketers on Mermaid, on the other hand, know how to manage pre-release expectation. Because it's a Stephen Chow movie so people had high hopes for it. But the trailers was lukewarmly received. So they decided to not do any pre-relase screening at all. So everyone was speculating "Mermaid was troubled in quality". But once released, it turned out to be decent. Thus, it avoided disappointing majority of the audience. the family appeal and eco-message also helped with its box office legs.

 

Expectation apart, being a talking animal feature also helped ZOO. it seems most Chinese audience perfer this type of Hollywood animation to others. The best sold HLW animation franchises are all about talking animals: KFP, Ice Age and Madagascar, and now ZOO (if it gets a sequel). 

 

 

 

 

[TigerPaw]

2 hours ago, firedeep said:

True. IP Man 3 could have done better but right now its thunder is being stolen by ZOO, a even more entertaining movie. Plus, the box office fraud is really pushing away many potential audience for it.

 

Then adding in Gods of Egypt, you can bet that IPM3 will have an ugly drop this weekend.

 

I don't see God of Egypt doing well. Just for comparison, I feel that CTHD2(Mandarin dub) is so much better than Gods of Egypt. I watched the former on Netflix and Latter in theaters. Its douban score is highly inflated now by Hollywood fans, I think bad WOM will spread by Friday and hopefully Ip Man 3 and Zootopia retains top 2 for the weekend.

EDIT: Ip Man 3 is playing catch up now, WOM of Ip Man 3 is taking effect too, but not to the extend of Zootopia. Might be a close race for #1 today. Pretty Surprised because today's is Woman's day I thought Zootopia would beat Ip MAn 3 handily.

Edited March 8, 2016 by TigerPaw

[Olive]

Tuesday /Women's Day est

Zootopia 69M/260M

IPM3 65.3M/585M

Mermaid 19m/3323m

Others nobody fucking cares

[keysersoze123]

zootopia is probably the 1st WOM(import) movie we have seen in a while. OD to total multi should be out of the world for sure.

[efialtes76]

Good job Oriental Dreamworks,really a very good job....

Edited March 8, 2016 by efialtes76

[keysersoze123]

5 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

Good job Oriental Dreamworks,really a very good job....

 

I think the more important factor is KFP3 did not have anywhere close to the reception that Zootopia is getting. That is reflected in its legs. KFP3 had meh saturday increase in its OW when it had like 50% of screens. So its not just the release strategy.