bangbingchan Posted March 21, 2017 Share Posted March 21, 2017 (edited) $100M is dead after BatB OD.might around ¥600M Edited March 21, 2017 by bangbingchan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cookson Posted March 21, 2017 Share Posted March 21, 2017 14 minutes ago, Mr Impossible said: Not good. $100m probably in danger. It'll get there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Impossible Posted March 21, 2017 Share Posted March 21, 2017 16 minutes ago, Cookson said: It'll get there. Talking about Kong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted March 21, 2017 Share Posted March 21, 2017 30 minutes ago, Mr Impossible said: Not good. $100m probably in danger. W3 dropped 15% and will do 2.1x OW. At 12%, 2.2x OW is very possible. Kong will not be huge nor direct competition, plus a holiday boost in the third weekend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted March 21, 2017 Share Posted March 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, Mr Impossible said: Talking about Kong. 100m+ OD should get to $100m 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bangbingchan Posted March 21, 2017 Share Posted March 21, 2017 16 minutes ago, Mr Impossible said: Talking about Kong. easy with Qingming Festival Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bangbingchan Posted March 21, 2017 Share Posted March 21, 2017 (edited) 25 minutes ago, POTUS said: W3 dropped 15% and will do 2.1x OW. At 12%, 2.2x OW is very possible. Kong will not be huge nor direct competition, plus a holiday boost in the third weekend. Logan doesn't have much competition from new release on 2nd and 3rd week.March.10 is empty.March 17 only has BtaB. BtaB will face Hongkong on 2nd weekend.3 local films on 3rd week.showtimes will be problems.Local films won't be Big.But wide local releases will occupy many screens.imax screen will taken by Kong this weekend.The situation BatB Face is much similar to Fantastic beast.FB daily drop is even better.FB cross 590M before service fees.BtaB might around 600M after services. Edited March 21, 2017 by bangbingchan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted March 21, 2017 Share Posted March 21, 2017 2 hours ago, bangbingchan said: easy with Qingming Festival How many days is that? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
efialtes76 Posted March 21, 2017 Share Posted March 21, 2017 1 hour ago, fmpro said: How many days is that? 3. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted March 21, 2017 Share Posted March 21, 2017 51 minutes ago, efialtes76 said: 3. FSS? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
efialtes76 Posted March 21, 2017 Share Posted March 21, 2017 2 hours ago, fmpro said: FSS? Sunday-Monday-Tuesday 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 7 hours ago, bangbingchan said: Logan doesn't have much competition from new release on 2nd and 3rd week.March.10 is empty.March 17 only has BtaB. BtaB will face Hongkong on 2nd weekend.3 local films on 3rd week.showtimes will be problems.Local films won't be Big.But wide local releases will occupy many screens.imax screen will taken by Kong this weekend.The situation BatB Face is much similar to Fantastic beast.FB daily drop is even better.FB cross 590M before service fees.BtaB might around 600M after services. It didn't matter there was little competition. It dropped 15% daily T-Th which made it lose more shows to the weak openers and the 66% 2nd weekend drop occurred. When a new release drops 12% it will hold more shows than the older releases. This weekend Kong and the other release will take 50%. BatB will likely keep 55% while others lose more. And the festival will give it a bump bigger than than the loss it takes from from the local releases which aren't very big in PS right now. If it does -12% again today I say 700m is a lock. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bangbingchan Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 (edited) 1 hour ago, POTUS said: It didn't matter there was little competition. It dropped 15% daily T-Th which made it lose more shows to the weak openers and the 66% 2nd weekend drop occurred. When a new release drops 12% it will hold more shows than the older releases. This weekend Kong and the other release will take 50%. BatB will likely keep 55% while others lose more. And the festival will give it a bump bigger than than the loss it takes from from the local releases which aren't very big in PS right now. If it does -12% again today I say 700m is a lock. That's different from what You said for Fantastic beast Last year.FB daily drop is even better,But fall short of 600M,for lacking screens.Local films take screens not depending on presale.They just occupy the screens on first week Edited March 22, 2017 by bangbingchan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 (edited) 3 hours ago, bangbingchan said: That's different from what You said for Fantastic beast Last year.FB daily drop is even better,But fall short of 600M,for lacking screens.Local films take screens not depending on presale.They just occupy the screens on first week If a film holds well it will hold a better percentage than what's being taken by the new releases normally. FB did 2.1x OW but 5 new releases took 69% of screens it's second week. That was an oversight on my part. That didn't leave room for it hold a much larger share of the overall drop. It lost 67%. The releases will take 50% this friday. I think BatB will lose 45%. The other film's market share % are under their show % and will lose 55-85% of their shows. Next friday I see just 3 releases so far with small PS. I doubt they take more than 50% of shows. I think BatB And Kong will hold well with holiday help. We have seen-25 to -40% holds on these holidays competing with new films totaling combined 100m for OD. So BatB had a larger OW. It will have at least 20% of shows this weekend, FB had 10%. Next week BatB will have 8-10% of shows. FB had 5%. Kong has an 8.9 rating after previews. That might boost OD. PS on track to go up more than 50% today. Edited March 22, 2017 by POTUS 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 last year, three local movies on Qingming had 70% showtimes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDarkKnightOfSteel Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 8 hours ago, POTUS said: It didn't matter there was little competition. It dropped 15% daily T-Th which made it lose more shows to the weak openers and the 66% 2nd weekend drop occurred. When a new release drops 12% it will hold more shows than the older releases. This weekend Kong and the other release will take 50%. BatB will likely keep 55% while others lose more. And the festival will give it a bump bigger than than the loss it takes from from the local releases which aren't very big in PS right now. If it does -12% again today I say 700m is a lock. 700m in China is absolutely fantastic for a musical.I though it would do something like 80M $ 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gavin Feng Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 WED estimates before service chargesBeauty & Beast - 23.1m / 369.5m(-14.5%, worse than TJB 11%)A Dog’s Purpose - 7.3m / 502.8mLogan - 4.3m / 662.8mResident Evil 6 - 2.3m / 1,033m after service charges Beauty & Beast - 24.6m / 396.8mA Dog’s Purpose - 7.95m / 548.5mLogan - 4.65m / 713.2mResident Evil 6 - 2.46m / 1,109m 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
juni78ukr Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 What about Russian movie Guardians? It also opens next week. Have you seen any advertising? How much screens it will get? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 1 hour ago, juni78ukr said: What about Russian movie Guardians? It also opens next week. Have you seen any advertising? How much screens it will get? With 3 local movies and 2 hollywood movies , I doubt it will get more than 5% of showtimes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
juni78ukr Posted March 22, 2017 Share Posted March 22, 2017 18 minutes ago, Olive said: With 3 local movies and 2 hollywood movies , I doubt it will get more than 5% of showtimes. Producers are hoping for at least $10-15 mln, possibly even $20 mln total. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...