China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[pepsa]

2 hours ago, fmpro said:

Tuesday ended up with 82 mill according to maoyan

Presales are at 13.5m atm

[Quigley]

Entgroup and BOM report different numbers in yuan, but they also use different exchange rates

 

EntGroup: $211.2M and 1,315.9M yuan http://english.entgroup.cn/boxoffice/cn/Default.aspx?week=1001

 

BOM: $200.49M and 1,269.9M yuan http://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/china/?yr=2018&wk=19&p=.htm

 

which is the right one? and if neither is right, who else is right? Deadline reported 1262M yuan and $199.3M.

 

Does a reliable source even exist?

[ZeeSoh]

15 minutes ago, Quigley said:

Entgroup and BOM report different numbers in yuan, but they also use different exchange rates

 

EntGroup: $211.2M and 1,315.9M yuan http://english.entgroup.cn/boxoffice/cn/Default.aspx?week=1001

 

BOM: $200.49M and 1,269.9M yuan http://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/china/?yr=2018&wk=19&p=.htm

 

which is the right one? and if neither is right, who else is right? Deadline reported 1262M yuan and $199.3M.

 

Does a reliable source even exist?

That Ent group number is wildly off. Deadline is off too but not by much. BOM number is the correct one and you can check Maoyan for revised actuals and they match perfectly. 

 

The official and final word is SARFT as mentioned by people on this thread. 

 

But yeah go with the BOM number. Maoyan usually has actual numbers a day or two after and they barely gets revised after. 

[meriodejaneiro]

54 minutes ago, Quigley said:

Entgroup and BOM report different numbers in yuan, but they also use different exchange rates

 

EntGroup: $211.2M and 1,315.9M yuan http://english.entgroup.cn/boxoffice/cn/Default.aspx?week=1001

 

BOM: $200.49M and 1,269.9M yuan http://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/china/?yr=2018&wk=19&p=.htm

 

which is the right one? and if neither is right, who else is right? Deadline reported 1262M yuan and $199.3M.

 

Does a reliable source even exist?

EntGroup numbers are always a little bit over what Chinese posters (or Chinese experts) bring here. Don't know if it has to be with taxes or ticket fees. 

 

So it seems the ¢200M is more and more official? Someone said BOM had it below 200 but now it shows $200,4M. So is Deadline the only one holding in to those $199,...M?

[POTUS 2020]

9 hours ago, pepsa said:

Presales are at 13.5m atm

yesterday was just short of 5x, perhaps today it will be dead on.  67.5m -17.6%

midpoint increased to 345pm, should get to 4 today or more.

21.89 total at 1pm.  3.4 RR.  Should reach  22.1m at 4pm.  64.2m -22%.  415mp = 66

64-67m

 

FF8						IW
Day	Yn	Daily % +/-	Last Week	Tot	$Tot	Yn	Daily % +/-	Last Week	Tot	$Tot
Fri	417			480	70	386			445	70
Sat	488	17.0%		968	141	493	27.6%		938	148
Sun	385	-21.1%		1353	197	331	-32.8%		1269	200
Mon	163	-57.7%		1516	220	109	-67.1%		1378	217
Tues	121	-25.8%		1637	238	82	-24.8%		1460	230
Wed	94	-22.3%		1731	252	65	-20.7%		1525	241
Thur	77	-18.1%		1808	263	53	-18.5%		1578	249
Fri	103	33.8%	-75.3%	1911	278	72	35.8%	-81.3%	1650	260
Sat	160	55.3%	-67.2%	2071	301	136	88.9%	-72.4%	1786	282
Sun	117	-26.9%	-69.6%	2188	318	122	-10.3%	-63.1%	1908	301
Mon	42	-64.1%	-74.2%	2230	324	33	-73.0%	-69.7%	1941	306
Tue	37	-11.9%	-69.4%	2267	330	28	-15.2%	-65.9%	1969	311
Wed	33	-10.8%	-64.9%	2300	334	24	-16.1%	-63.8%	1992	315
Thu	29	-12.1%	-62.3%	2329	339	20	-14.9%	-62.3%	2012	318
Fri	30	3.4%	-70.9%	2359	343	26	30.0%	-63.9%	2038	322
Sat	60	100.0%	-62.5%	2419	352	53	103.8%	-61.0%	2091	330
Sun	75	25.0%	-35.9%	2494	363	38	-28.3%	-68.9%	2129	336
Mon	58	-22.7%	38.1%	2552	371	13	-65.8%	-60.6%	2142	338
Tue	18	-69.0%	-51.4%	2570	374	11	-15.4%	-60.7%	2153	340
Wed	14	-22.2%	-57.6%	2584	376	9	-14.5%	-60.0%	2163	341
Thu	13	-7.1%	-55.2%	2597	377	8	-14.9%	-60.0%	2171	343
.
Fri	8	-38.5%	-73.3%	2605	379	11	37.5%	-57.7%	2182	344
Sat	13.4	67.5%	-77.7%	2618	381	22	100.0%	-58.5%	2204	348
Sun	11.4	-14.9%	-84.8%	2630	382	17	-25.0%	-56.6%	2220	350
				2670	388				2270	366

 

Edited May 16, 2018 by POTUS

[RthDeadWov]

8 hours ago, Quigley said:

Entgroup and BOM report different numbers in yuan, but they also use different exchange rates

 

EntGroup: $211.2M and 1,315.9M yuan http://english.entgroup.cn/boxoffice/cn/Default.aspx?week=1001

 

BOM: $200.49M and 1,269.9M yuan http://www.boxofficemojo.com/intl/china/?yr=2018&wk=19&p=.htm

 

which is the right one? and if neither is right, who else is right? Deadline reported 1262M yuan and $199.3M.

 

Does a reliable source even exist?

 

8 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

That Ent group number is wildly off. Deadline is off too but not by much. BOM number is the correct one and you can check Maoyan for revised actuals and they match perfectly. 

 

The official and final word is SARFT as mentioned by people on this thread. 

 

But yeah go with the BOM number. Maoyan usually has actual numbers a day or two after and they barely gets revised after. 

or try now lc1272.7m , yeah not sure where DL number came from.

Also remember studios/producers convert to $us using intercompany weighted average exchange rates

[Fake]

2 hours ago, POTUS said:

yesterday was just short of 5x, perhaps today it will be dead on.  67.5m -17.6%

midpoint increased to 345pm, should get to 4 today or more.

21.89 total at 1pm.  3.4 RR.  Should reach  22.1m at 4pm.  64.2m -22%.  415mp = 66

64-67m

 

FF8						IW
Day	Yn	Daily % +/-	Last Week	Tot	$Tot	Yn	Daily % +/-	Last Week	Tot	$Tot
Fri	417			480	70	386			445	70
Sat	488	17.0%		968	141	493	27.6%		938	148
Sun	385	-21.1%		1353	197	331	-32.8%		1269	200
Mon	163	-57.7%		1516	220	109	-67.1%		1378	217
Tues	121	-25.8%		1637	238	82	-24.8%		1460	230
Wed	94	-22.3%		1731	252	65	-20.7%		1525	241
Thur	77	-18.1%		1808	263	53	-18.5%		1578	249
Fri	103	33.8%	-75.3%	1911	278	72	35.8%	-81.3%	1650	260
Sat	160	55.3%	-67.2%	2071	301	136	88.9%	-72.4%	1786	282
Sun	117	-26.9%	-69.6%	2188	318	122	-10.3%	-63.1%	1908	301
Mon	42	-64.1%	-74.2%	2230	324	33	-73.0%	-69.7%	1941	306
Tue	37	-11.9%	-69.4%	2267	330	28	-15.2%	-65.9%	1969	311
Wed	33	-10.8%	-64.9%	2300	334	24	-16.1%	-63.8%	1992	315
Thu	29	-12.1%	-62.3%	2329	339	20	-14.9%	-62.3%	2012	318
Fri	30	3.4%	-70.9%	2359	343	26	30.0%	-63.9%	2038	322
Sat	60	100.0%	-62.5%	2419	352	53	103.8%	-61.0%	2091	330
Sun	75	25.0%	-35.9%	2494	363	38	-28.3%	-68.9%	2129	336
Mon	58	-22.7%	38.1%	2552	371	13	-65.8%	-60.6%	2142	338
Tue	18	-69.0%	-51.4%	2570	374	11	-15.4%	-60.7%	2153	340
Wed	14	-22.2%	-57.6%	2584	376	9	-14.5%	-60.0%	2163	341
Thu	13	-7.1%	-55.2%	2597	377	8	-14.9%	-60.0%	2171	343
.
Fri	8	-38.5%	-73.3%	2605	379	11	37.5%	-57.7%	2182	344
Sat	13.4	67.5%	-77.7%	2618	381	22	100.0%	-58.5%	2204	348
Sun	11.4	-14.9%	-84.8%	2630	382	17	-25.0%	-56.6%	2220	350
				2670	388				2270	366

 

Yesterday's midpoint was around 3:15PM as far as I recall.  Today's midpoint may be 3:30-3:45PM. So, 62.5-64.5M.

[Fake]

1 hour ago, Rthanos said:

 

or try now lc1272.7m , yeah not sure where DL number came from.

Also remember studios/producers convert to $us using intercompany weighted average exchange rates

And what is the exchange rate that will be applied on the Chinese OW? Is that ER determined yet, or will it be at a later stage?

Edited May 16, 2018 by Fake

[ymblcza]

12 minutes ago, Fake said:

Yesterday's midpoint was around 3:15PM as far as I recall.  Today's midpoint may be 3:30-3:45PM. So, 62.5-64.5M.

64M seems appropriate

[POTUS 2020]

3 minutes ago, Fake said:

Yesterday's midpoint was around 3:15PM as far as I recall.  Today's midpoint may be 3:30-3:45PM. So, 62.5-64.5M.

Est was 81, Maoyan hit 82, maoyan at 80.5 now but not all shows reported yet.

I thought it was 41m at 345, 40m at 330

anyway, today it is 

330  31m

345  32

400  33

415  34 

RR got up to 4m like yesterday in the last 2 hours.  66m looking good with that rate, will be down just 18.5% if Tuesday is 81m. FF8 was -22.3% 

[ymblcza]

CA3 did 470M more after a 40M Wed, 1525+64/40*470=2277M ($360M)

Edited May 16, 2018 by ymblcza

[POTUS 2020]

10 minutes ago, ymblcza said:

CA3 did 470M after a 40M Wed, 1525+64/40*470=2277M ($360M)

	CA3
Yn	Daily % +/-	Last Week	Tot	$Tot
17			17
181			198	30
249	37.6%		447	69
180	-27.7%		627	96
60	-66.7%		687	106
49	-18.3%		736	113
40	-18.4%		776	119
33	-17.5%		809	124
49	48.5%	-72.9%	858	132
92	87.8%	-63.1%	950	146
67	-27.2%	-62.8%	1017	156
20.0	-70.1%	-66.7%	1037	159
18.0	-10.0%	-63.3%	1055	162
15.4	-14.4%	-61.5%	1070	165
13.8	-10.4%	-58.2%	1084	167
24.0	73.9%	VD Day	1108	170
31.0	29.2%	-66.3%	1139	175
23.6	-23.9%	-64.8%	1162	179
7.5	-68.2%	-62.5%	1170	180
6.9	-8.0%	-61.7%	1177	181
6.3	-8.3%	-58.9%	1183	182
3.1	-51.0%	-77.5%	1186	182
			1244	191

[Fake]

2 hours ago, ymblcza said:

CA3 did 470M more after a 40M Wed, 1525+64/40*470=2277M ($360M)

If IW can match the CA3 Fri  and Sat jumps, then it should finish with that amount. But the corresponding Sat would be 92*64/40 = 147.5M.... doubtful if it can go that high, but hope so.

 

BTW IW @ 47M right now as compared to 61M yesterday, i.e. down 23% . If it continues with the same pace, it will finish with 62.5M, but evening shows should hold a little better. 63-64M looking likely.

[Michael Seng Wah]

Is 350m USD locked? Seems that the leg is just so-so...

[ymblcza]

11 minutes ago, Fake said:

If IW can match the CA3 Fri  and Sat jumps, then it should finish with that amount. But the corresponding Sat would be 92*64/40 = 147.5M.... doubtful if it can go that high, but hope so.

 

BTW IW @ 47M right now as compared to 61M yesterday, i.e. down 23% . If it continues with the same pace, it will finish with 62.5M, but evening shows should hold a little better. 63-64M looking likely.

Later competition is much weaker and could cover this weekend’s gap

Edited May 16, 2018 by ymblcza

[fabiopazzo2]

13 minutes ago, Michael Seng Wah said:

Is 350m USD locked? Seems that the leg is just so-so...

Not yet

[fastclock]

3 hours ago, Fake said:

And what is the exchange rate that will be applied on the Chinese OW? Is that ER determined yet, or will it be at a later stage?

 

4 hours ago, Rthanos said:

 

or try now lc1272.7m , yeah not sure where DL number came from.

Also remember studios/producers convert to $us using intercompany weighted average exchange rates

 

So, CBO or SARFT will decide the official yuan number, which is 1272.7m.

 

Disney will decide the $ equivalent using the intercompany weighted average exchange rates, which we don't know. Disney probably will not announce this as it probably relates to tax and other financial calculations. This is probably lower than the midpoint of the conversion rate - as you don't exchange currency at exactly the midpoint if it is being converted from one to another. Hence, the $ amount announced by Disney is probably lower than $200m. But had it been converted by the midpoint conversion rate, it would have been more than $200m.

[jiangsen]

53 minutes ago, fastclock said:

 

 

So, CBO or SARFT will decide the official yuan number, which is 1272.7m.

 

Disney will decide the $ equivalent using the intercompany weighted average exchange rates, which we don't know. Disney probably will not announce this as it probably relates to tax and other financial calculations. This is probably lower than the midpoint of the conversion rate - as you don't exchange currency at exactly the midpoint if it is being converted from one to another. Hence, the $ amount announced by Disney is probably lower than $200m. But had it been converted by the midpoint conversion rate, it would have been more than $200m.

If y’all are gonna get super technical about exchange rates and how it looks in Disney’s books, why not go all the way? The official gross that Disney will eventually report (and should be reported elsewhere) will exclude the ticketing fees that aren’t calculated in their revenue share at all. That means opening weekend was ¥1.19309B = $187.6M. 

[terrestrial]

1 hour ago, jiangsen said:

If y’all are gonna get super technical about exchange rates and how it looks in Disney’s books, why not go all the way? The official gross that Disney will eventually report (and should be reported elsewhere) will exclude the ticketing fees that aren’t calculated in their revenue share at all. That means opening weekend was ¥1.19309B = $187.6M. 

Bot the general BO reporting changed to incl fees and that was what the 'discussion' around the OW was about.

So even if for Disney (and all the other foreign distributors) changed nothing, the BO reporting websites did adjust, so 'we' look nowadays for that kind of # too.

[jiangsen]

17 minutes ago, terrestrial said:

Bot the general BO reporting changed to incl fees and that was what the 'discussion' around the OW was about.

So even if for Disney (and all the other foreign distributors) changed nothing, the BO reporting websites did adjust, so 'we' look nowadays for that kind of # too.

General box office reporting in China contains both 综合 (with fees) and 分账 (without). It’s only in English that reporting failed to understand the changes.