China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[fmpro]

TASM 2 - May 4thIt will not have May-day holiday boost sadly.

Not just that. Holiday ends on 5.3. So ASM2 comes out on the first day of a long working week, right after load of local films have egregiously collected box office from a booming holiday.

FUCK YOU CHINA!!!!!

[avis121]

Yep, indeed. But, I suppose TASM 2 should still well, in spite of these head-winds. $75 Mill should be in range?

[avis121]

Olive - Do you have Tuesday's revised estimates and today's estimates?

[Olive]

Tuesday revised

Robo 7.7M 276M

DOS 4.1M 444M

FB   850K 32.2M

Frozen 630k 291m

 

Wed est

Robo 7.2M 283M

DOS 3.7M 448M

FB   800K 33.1M

Frozen 550k 292m

[avis121]

Thanks Olive.

 

Does it look like DOS will go past RMB 500M ? It's looking good.

 

And Robocop in China is looking like it's on track to be the World's biggest box office, as it should go past 56-57M that the US is likely to finish at. This is around RMB 340-350M or so.

 

Maybe they should have released Robo in 3D, worldwide?

[zackzack]

Thanks Olive.

 

Does it look like DOS will go past RMB 500M ? It's looking good.

 

And Robocop in China is looking like it's on track to be the World's biggest box office, as it should go past 56-57M that the US is likely to finish at. This is around RMB 340-350M or so.

 

Maybe they should have released Robo in 3D, worldwide?

 

I am glad ROBO does well in China. That figure vis-a-vis domestic take shows that Hollywood cannot ignore the Chinese market at all.

[Olive]

Thanks Olive.

 

Does it look like DOS will go past RMB 500M ? It's looking good.

 

And Robocop in China is looking like it's on track to be the World's biggest box office, as it should go past 56-57M that the US is likely to finish at. This is around RMB 340-350M or so.

 

Maybe they should have released Robo in 3D, worldwide?

Two new wide releases on Friday will take a lot of screens from holdovers..

[Olive]

Ray Subers ‏@raysubers  3m

Sign of the times: China box office passes $1 billion in 2014 before U.S. hits $2 billion... http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/envelope/cotown/la-et-ct-us-movies-help-drive-chinese-box-office-over-1-billion-20140312,0,5009414.story …

[Olive]

Early Friday showtimes

Need for Speed 31.4%

Homefront 19.9%

Robocop 11.8%

DoS 5.1%

Free Birds 4.3%

Frozen 1.4%

[avis121]

OK, thanks for that Olive. So, I suppose expectations for Robo should be tempered a bit and even though its at RMB 283M as of today, it may not do well enough in the next few days to hit the RMB 340M mark? Is this a fair assumption?

[A Marvel Fanboy]

FUCK YOU CHINA!!!!!

On the bright side, the date is still significant better than what the last one got .... (head to head with TDKR on the first day of autumn school season)

 

Yep, indeed. But, I suppose TASM 2 should still well, in spite of these head-winds. $75 Mill should be in range?

They were hoping for $100m but right now probably more like $80m.

 

Thanks Olive.

 

Does it look like DOS will go past RMB 500M ? It's looking good.

 

And Robocop in China is looking like it's on track to be the World's biggest box office, as it should go past 56-57M that the US is likely to finish at. This is around RMB 340-350M or so.

 

Maybe they should have released Robo in 3D, worldwide?

With Speed and Homefront coming to kill Robocop and Smaug, I dont think 500m is possible, more like sub 470m. As for Robocop, likely it can still climb to around 340m. 330m is a much safer bet, though.

 

And I second that they should have released Robocop in 3D internationallly, not just in China.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

 

 

 Alibaba is to pay HK$6.24 billion ($805 million) for a controlling stake in Hong Kong-listed Chinese film and TV producer Chinavision

 

Columbia beefs up China production Edited March 12, 2014 by firedeep

[Lordmandeep]

Well ASM2 increases by 20 million in China alone should do near 600 million overseas then. 

[avis121]

Thursday's estimates / Wednesday's revised, Olive? Thanks

[Olive]

Thur est

Robo 6.1M 289M

DOS 3.1M 451M

FB   800K 34M

Frozen 500k 292.5m

[A Marvel Fanboy]

This year's Qing Ming Holiday is officially announced Apr 5 ~ Apr 7 (Monday). The date for CA:WS, which will launch in 3D and 3D IMAX but no 2D, seems pretty safe as far as concerned. It is a rare thing that a big Hollywood film drops right before a national public holiday kicks in. 3 days holiday benifits, one could only dream given the fierce foreign slot stuation in the last three years. For the record, Frozen, Lone Ranger or Taken 2 all opened on the last day of certain national holidays. And those were the best treatments Hollywood films used to get in past few years. Even Ironman 3 only managed to enjoy one day's holiday. 

 

The trick is that a bunch of local major releases, including Iceman 3D (4.25), My Old Classmate (4.25, Colombia Pic coproduct), The White Haired Witch of Lunar Kingdom (4.25), The Great Hypnotist (4.29), Old Boy: The Way of The Dragan (5.1), The Golden Era (5.1 for now) and Zhang Yimou's Return (5.1 for now), are all striving for the May holiday instead of Qing Ming Festival. Thus leaves room for Captain America. The later long Summer holidays will be loaded with Chinese films too, of course. Otherwise, take a quick recap at March ~ May foreign schedule: Free Birds (3.7), Need for Speed (3.14), Snowpiercer (3.17), The Monuments Men (3.28) ,Mr. Peabody & Sherman (3.28), Captain American 2 (4.4), Rio 2 (4.11), Transcendence (4.18) and Amazing Spiderman 2 (5.4). Noah probably will go later May. Looking forward, at this point, it is unclear how many Hollywood summer blockbusters can get into the most important box office mine ----- summer holidays (June ~ Aug) ----  besides Transformer 3 (6.27).

 

Not much further to say. Back to Cap, I am expecting no less than $75m for the Marvel sequel, with $30m+ three-days OW. Unless weirdly not enough people are coming to cinemas during Qing Ming weekend.

 

Speaking of current Friday, it is hard to tell at this early. But pre-12am tracking indicates NFS (Need for Speed) is performing on par with, if not slightly ahead of, Robocop OD two weeks ago. That is not surpring though, since the video game NFS is very popular in China.

 

Prepare for a $20m OW for NFS, if the trend holds. Also an actioner released on Friday, on the other side, the Jason Statham - James Franco starring Homefront is not working.

Edited March 14, 2014 by firedeep

[avis121]

Do you have any early Friday estimates yet, Olive? Thanks

[Olive]

Friday est

Need for Speed 35M new

Homefront 5.7M new

Robocop 3.8M 293M

DOS 1.4M 451M

[avis121]

NFS is tracking very well. Are we looking at 130M for this weekend? Was this expected?

 

Both Robo and DOS are fading away now. Geez. Even 330 M for Robo and 470M for DOS might be difficult. Is this a correct read?

[A Marvel Fanboy]

NFS is tracking very well. Are we looking at 130M for this weekend? Was this expected?

 

Both Robo and DOS are fading away now. Geez. Even 330 M for Robo and 470M for DOS might be difficult. Is this a correct read?

Robocop Sat increased 26% (39 to 49) but that was unusual. So we need to see how NFS does on Sat. Theoretically, current range for NFS OW is 120m~130m, if it follows normal trends. Yes.