China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[Blackout]

Lol gives you  a Brucel lee one inch punch for that blasphemy Sky -Hee hee

 

of Course there is only one true Juggernaut coming for us.....   WE WILL SEND THEM THE  MESSAGE!!! " THIS IS OUR LAND!"

 

 

I'm not sure about Avatar. The first one was a phenomenon, so if the second one is as well received as the first I think 300m+ can be reached.  

[Fake]

Avengers 2 should do 200m with a decent release date.

[Kalel009Shel]

 

I'm not sure about Avatar. The first one was a phenomenon, so if the second one is as well received as the first I think 300m+ can be reached.

My dear Sky I think James will push us even further than that, but shoot I wont be dissappointed with 300M+ in China, though I hope we can make a uber Blockbuster number in China(400+M) by the time Avatar 2 finally is upon us..

 

Can you believe this man takes a break after Titanic, no films can beat his and his very next one tops the Titan lol.  Hah hah love it.

[Kalel009Shel]

Avengers 2 should do 200m with a decent release date.

Yeah I figure 150-200M is possible.. Though Skys 150-160+m mark seems more likely.

[Blackout]

My dear Sky I think James will push us even further than that, but shoot I wont be dissappointed with 300M+ in China, though I hope we can make a uber Blockbuster number in China(400+M) by the time Avatar 2 finally is upon us..

 

Can you believe this man takes a break after Titanic, no films can beat his and his very next one tops the Titan lol.  Hah hah love it.

 

By the time Avatar 2 comes out the box office in China should have grown a lot too. 400m may be possible too

[A Marvel Fanboy]

haha. TA2 is a sure fire for $200m I think ....

 

Yeah, CEC is a big deal here, traditionally. There are students who see themselves have failed the exams committing suicide or getting serious mental problems almost every year ....

[alee7915]

haha. TA2 is a sure fire for $200m I think ....

 

Yeah, CEC is a big deal here, traditionally. There are students who see themselves have failed the exams committing suicide or getting serious mental problems almost every year ....

Based on what you said, you passed your exams...

[alee7915]

Firedeep is zhu zhu xia...

[A Marvel Fanboy]

This week's box office forecast from M1905 for June 9 ~ June 15:

 

1. Godzilla ------- 251m (NEW) -------- NEW

2. EOT ------- 166m (+4%) -------- 326M

3. DOFP ------- 47m (-67%) -------- 710M

4. OH3 ------- 36m (-66%) -------- 295M

 

Key readings:

 

1. Could Godzilla really top DOFP (245m) for Hollywood's three-days opening record ?

2. The forecast suggests EoT should hold well against King of Monsters and makes its way to 400m.

3. ..... suggests DOFP passing CA2 (720M) for biggest superhero of the year is a lock but IM3 (753m) for biggest superhero of all time is a stretch. 

[alee7915]

This week's box office forecast from M1905 for June 9 ~ June 15:

 

1. Godzilla ------- 251m (NEW) -------- NEW

2. EOT ------- 166m (+4%) -------- 326M

3. DOFP ------- 47m (-67%) -------- 710M

4. OH3 ------- 36m (-66%) -------- 295M

 

Key readings:

 

1. Could Godzilla really top DOFP (245m) for Hollywood's three-days opening record ?

2. The forecast suggests EoT should hold well against King of Monsters and makes its way to 400m.

3. ..... suggests DOFP passing CA2 (720M) for biggest superhero of the year is a lock but IM3 (753m) for biggest superhero of all time is a stretch. 

 

1. Could Godzilla really top DOFP (245m) for Hollywood's three-days opening record ?---> NO  

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Based on what you said, you passed your exams...

Depends ... I could have entered a top 50 college but actually ended up in a 150+ one .... but I am fine. College is useless for many people.

[Blackout]

This week's box office forecast from M1905 for June 9 ~ June 15:

 

1. Godzilla ------- 251m (NEW) -------- NEW

2. EOT ------- 166m (+4%) -------- 326M

3. DOFP ------- 47m (-67%) -------- 710M

4. OH3 ------- 36m (-66%) -------- 295M

 

Key readings:

 

1. Could Godzilla really top DOFP (245m) for Hollywood's three-days opening record ?

2. The forecast suggests EoT should hold well against King of Monsters and makes its way to 400m.

3. ..... suggests DOFP passing CA2 (720M) for biggest superhero of the year is a lock but IM3 (753m) for biggest superhero of all time is a stretch. 

 

Is there a reason for the big drops this week? 

[fmpro]

where is fmpro?

Out in real life having fun

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Is there a reason for the big drops this week? 

Yes, market nature ... they should be lucky that they are about to drop only sub 70% on third week and still able to rank in the top 5. Many movies simply disappear after two weeks.

 

Some features of China box office market:

 

1. strong weekday but soft Friday jump. Mon-Sun drop, 45~55% for local films and 50~60% for Hollywood movies, is common. But Fri-Thu increase, which is higher for Hollywood films than local ones, almost always is less than 50% even without openers. If there is a big opener on Friday, holdovers would be lucky to stay flat .... But this pattern is slowly becoming closer to mature markets with time. For instance, animated movies are already performing in China like in US.

 

2. Most movies drop normally in the first two weeks but from the third week and on, they drop like rocks. 60% third week drop would be considered very good for any movie (without holidays). 70%+/80%+ fourth week drop is everywhere. Out of the 300+ movies released every year, over half disappear from top 15 within two weeks, the rest after four or five weeks. 95% movies end run after 30 days. China dont have the concept of wide release or limited release. Or every release is a wide release. A movies tries its best to get as many theaters and screens as possible and then it disappears if no one watches it.

 

3. Audience trend to rush to the lastest hot movies, hence the frontloadness and poor late legs. When the next hot movie comes, audience immediately turns to it and theaters automatically replace the old one with it, almost without looking at how the old one is holding.

 

4. More than half audience seems to have no idea what movies are playing in the theater until they stand in front of the box office. They look at the posters and then usually choose the one that is scheduled with the most shows. Frequent audience probably only counts less than one third.

 

And so on ....

[Blackout]

Yes, market nature ... they should be lucky that they are about to drop only sub 70% on third week and still able to rank in the top 5. Many movies simply disappear after two weeks.

 

Some features of China box office market:

 

1. strong weekday but soft Friday jump. Mon-Sun drop, 45~55% for local films and 50~60% for Hollywood movies, is common. But Fri-Thu increase, which is higher for Hollywood films than local ones, almost always is less than 50% even without openers. If there is a big opener on Friday, holdovers would be lucky to stay flat .... But this pattern is slowly becoming closer to mature markets with time. For instance, animated movies are already performing in China like in US.

 

2. Most movies drop normally in the first two weeks but from the third week and on, they drop like rocks. 60% third week drop would be considered very good for any movie (without holidays). 70%+/80%+ fourth week drop is everywhere. Out of the 300+ movies released every year, over half disappear from top 15 within two weeks, the rest after four or five weeks. 95% movies end run after 30 days. China dont have the concept of wide release or limited release. Or every release is a wide release. A movies tries its best to get as many theaters and screens as possible and then it disappears if no one watches it.

 

3. Audience trend to rush to the lastest hot movies, hence the frontloadness and poor late legs. When the next hot movie comes, audience immediately turns to it and theaters automatically replace the old one with it, almost without looking at how the old one is holding.

 

4. More than half audience seems to have no idea what movies are playing in the theater until they stand in front of the box office. They look at the posters and then usually choose the one that is scheduled with the most shows. Frequent audience probably only counts less than one third.

 

And so on ....

 

Thanks. that was insightful. Biggest superhero movie of the year, I'll take that.    Although I hope it does better than estimates, since TASM2 didn't drop that much in its fourth week compared to this estimate. Hoping for at least 60m.

Edited June 9, 2014 by Skybreaker™

[A Marvel Fanboy]

[fmpro]

DOFP should hit 700 mill next weekend and give Cap2 a run for 1st place CB movie 2014

[Olive]

Monday est

EOT 27M  185M

DOFP 8.3M  671M

[keysersoze123]

Excellent for EOT.

[fmpro]

Monday estEOT 27M  185MDOFP 8.3M  671M

Great for EOT and good for DOFP