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A Marvel Fanboy

China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

By A Marvel Fanboy, in China At The Box Office

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A Marvel Fanboy Global Phenomenon

A Marvel Fanboy

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Revised (and a bit more optimistic) prediction for Interstellar.

 

Interstellar Prediction  　
WEEK GROSS
(M/RMB) 		DATE GROSS
(M/RMB) 		GROSS
(M/US$) 		CHANGE
 (%) 		TOTAL
(M/RMB) 		TOTAL
(M/US$)
1 ￥261
NEW 		Midnight ¥2.2 $0.4 - ¥2.2 $0.4
Wed ¥33.0 $5.4 1400.0% ¥35.2 $5.7
Thu ¥30.6 $5.0 -7.3% ¥65.8 $10.7
Fri ¥44.0 $7.2 43.8% ¥109.8 $17.9
Sat ¥76.0 $12.4 72.7% ¥185.8 $30.3
Sun ¥75.2 $12.3 -1.1% ¥261.0 $42.6
2 ￥272
+4.2% 		Mon ¥31.0 $5.1 -58.8% ¥292.0 $47.6
Tue ¥32.0 $5.2 3.2% ¥324.0 $52.9
Wed ¥30.0 $4.9 -6.3% ¥354.0 $57.7
Thu ¥27.0 $4.4 -10.0% ¥381.0 $62.2
Fri ¥35.0 $5.7 29.6% ¥416.0 $67.9
Sat ¥62.0 $10.1 77.1% ¥478.0 $78.0
Sun ¥55.0 $9.0 -11.3% ¥533.0 $86.9
3 ￥167
-38.6% 		Mon ¥23.0 $3.8 -58.2% ¥556.0 $90.7
Tue ¥23.0 $3.8 0.0% ¥579.0 $94.5
Wed ¥20.0 $3.3 -13.0% ¥599.0 $97.7
Thu ¥17.0 $2.8 -15.0% ¥616.0 $100.5
Fri ¥20.0 $3.3 17.6% ¥636.0 $103.8
Sat ¥35.0 $5.7 75.0% ¥671.0 $109.5
Sun ¥29.0 $4.7 -17.1% ¥700.0 $114.2
4 　 　 ¥75.0 $12.2 -55.1% ¥775.0 $126.4
5 　 　 ¥20.0 $3.3 -73.3% ¥795.0 $129.7
Total 　 　 　 　 　 ¥795.0 $129.7
　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　

 

Fourth week coming two big movies The Crossing and My Girlfriend is Sick.

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A Marvel Fanboy Global Phenomenon

A Marvel Fanboy

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Since Interstellar performance is being clear by day and no more foreign release within 2014 except Roaring Currents and Autómata next week so it is time to do some little year-end research on 2014 foreign releases. Below research result is based on box office prediction of Interstellar, Roaring Currents and Autómata.

 

 

2014  Hollywood Films China-North America Box Office Ratio 　 　
Rank Tittle China Gross (US$) NA Gross (US$) China/NA Percentage Genre 2D/3D Open in China Open in NA Days Difference
1 The Expendables 3 $73,912,195 $39,322,544 188.0% Action 2D 1-Sep 15-Aug 17
2 Need For Speed (3D) $66,312,903 $43,577,636 152.2% Action 3D 14-Mar 14-Mar 0
3 Brick Mansions $30,493,548 $20,396,829 149.5% Action 2D 1-Aug 25-Apr 98
4 Transformers 4: Age of Extinction (3D) $319,185,484 $245,439,076 130.0% Sci-fi 3D 27-Jun 27-Jun 0
5 Transcendence (3D) $20,283,871 $23,022,309 88.1% Sci-fi 3D 18-Apr 18-Apr 0
6 Robocop (3D) $50,695,161 $58,607,007 86.5% Sci-fi 3D 28-Feb 12-Feb 16
7 Interstellar $129,000,000 $180,000,000 71.7% Sci-fi 2D 12-Nov 7-Nov 5
8 Pompeii (3D) $15,561,290 $23,219,748 67.0% Diaster 3D 15-Aug 21-Feb 175
9 Dawn of the Planet of the Apes $115,923,577 $208,514,872 55.6% Sci-fi 3D 29-Aug 11-Jul 49
10 X-Men: Days of Future Past (3D) $116,620,968 $233,921,534 49.9% Sci-fi 3D 23-May 23-May 0
11 The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (3D) $94,408,065 $202,853,933 46.5% Sci-fi 3D 4-May 2-May 2
12 Captain America: The Winter Soldier (3D) $116,158,065 $259,766,572 44.7% Sci-fi 3D 4-Apr 4-Apr 0
13 Jack Ryan $25,774,194 $59,440,000 43.4% Action 2D 17-Jan 17-Jan 0
14 Edge of Tomorrow $65,514,516 $100,206,256 65.4% Sci-fi 3D 6-Jun 6-Jun 0
15 Godzilla (3D) $77,608,065 $200,676,069 38.7% Sci-fi 3D 13-Jun 16-May 28
16 How to Train Your Dragon 2 (3D) $66,460,163 $176,888,270 37.6% Animation 3D 14-Aug 13-Jun 62
17 Into the Storm $17,580,645 $47,596,501 36.9% Diaster 2D 12-Sep 8-Aug 35
18 Ender's Game $22,580,645 $61,737,191 36.6% Sci-fi 2D 7-Jan 1-Nov 67
19 Lucy (3D) $44,145,161 $126,663,600 34.9% Sci-fi 3D 24-Oct 25-Jul 91
20 Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (3D) $62,000,000 $191,173,777 32.4% Sci-fi 3D 31-Oct 7-Aug 85
21 Rio 2 (3D) $39,262,903 $131,538,435 29.8% Animation 3D 11-Apr 11-Apr 0
22 Guardians of the Galaxy (3D) $96,334,959 $330,487,141 29.1% Sci-fi 3D 10-Oct 1-Aug 70
23 The Hobbit 2 (3D) $74,466,129 $258,366,855 28.8% Fantasy 3D 21-Feb 13-Dec 70
24 Homefront $5,241,935 $20,158,898 26.0% Action 2D 14-Mar 27-Nov 107
25 The Family $9,085,484 $36,918,811 24.6% Action 2D 7-Mar 13-Sep 175
26 The Maze Runner $23,837,398 $100,096,853 23.8% YA 2D 28-Oct 19-Sep 39
27 Penguins of Madagascar (3D) $30,000,000 $130,000,000 23.1% Animation 3D 14-Nov 7-Nov 7
28 The Legend of Hercules (3D) $4,082,258 $18,848,538 21.7% Fantasy 3D 11-Apr 10-Jan 91
29 Fury $16,000,000 $80,000,000 20.0% War 2D 21-Nov 17-Oct 35
30 Maleficent (3D) $47,759,677 $240,810,487 19.8% Fantasy 3D 20-Jun 30-May 21
31 Non-stop $16,793,406 $91,742,160 18.3% Thriller 2D 19-Sep 28-Feb 203
32 Hercules (3D) $13,073,171 $72,681,652 18.0% War 2D 21-Oct 25-Jul 88
33 Mr. Peabody & Sherman (3D) $19,577,419 $111,505,642 17.6% Animation 3D 28-Mar 7-Mar 21
34 The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones $4,580,645 $31,165,421 14.7% YA 2D 3-Jan 21-Aug 135
35 Free Birds (3D) $8,037,097 $55,750,480 14.4% Animation 3D 7-Mar 1-Nov 126
36 Despicable Me 2 (3D) $52,151,613 $368,061,265 14.2% Animation 3D 10-Jan 3-Jul 191
37 Frozen (3D) $48,016,129 $400,738,009 12.0% Animation 3D 5-Feb 22-Nov 75
38 The Monuments Men $7,680,645 $78,031,620 9.8% Drama 2D 28-Mar 7-Feb 49
39 Divergent $12,238,710 $150,947,895 8.1% YA 2D 8-Sep 21-Mar 171
40 American Hustle $3,162,903 $150,117,807 2.1% Drama 2D 4-Jul 13-Dec 203
41 Ice Age 2 (3D) $6,960,000 NA NA Animation 3D 13-Oct NA NA
　 Per film Average $50,452,707 $130,755,895 38.6% 　 　 　 　 　
　 Year projected total $5,000,000,000 $10,800,000,000 46.3% 　 　 　 　 　

 

 

Key notes:

 

1. After two decades, action and sci-fi films from Hollywood still sell the best in China.

  • Action flicks have the highest percentage but sci-fi finds the most audience.
  • Interstellar underperformed in NA while Godzilla and Tutles overperformed there.

2. Fantasy and animation do so-so.

 

3. YA continues not to connect.

 

4. War pic is tough sell.

 

5. Drama/comedy always bomb.

 

6. 3D does help a lot in the world's most 3D friendly market but 2D movies can also do well.

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A Marvel Fanboy Global Phenomenon

A Marvel Fanboy

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Foreign Studios Revenue-shared Gross & Market Share - China Box Office 2014
Rank Studios Releases Total Gross

(M/RMB)

 		Total Gross

(M/$)

 		Average

(M/$)

 		Year Market Share
1 Paramount 4 ¥2,588 $420.8 $105.2 8.4%
2 Disney 5 ¥2,317 $376.7 $75.3 7.5%
3 WB 4 ¥2,253 $366.3 $91.6 7.3%
4 FOX 6 ¥1,915 $311.4 $51.9 6.2%
5 Sony 2 ¥900 $146.3 $73.2 2.9%
6 ODW 3 ¥719 $116.9 $39.0 2.3%
7 Universal 1 ¥323 $52.5 $52.5 1.1%
8 LGF 1 ¥140 $22.8 $22.8 0.5%
　 Others 8 ¥975 $158.5 $19.8 3.2%
　 Total 34 　 $1,972.4 $58.0 39.4%
*: 2014 Overal Market Volume = $5.0B

 

When there are Autobots, Paramount wins .... Disney, WB and Fox were not far behind. All had a great year. Decent year for ODW. Awful for Sony, Uni and LGF.

 

Domestic/Foreign Gross & Market Share - China Box Office 2014
Type Releases Total Gross

(M/RMB)

 		Total Gross

(M/$)

 		Average

(M/$)

 		Year Market Share YOY Increase

(2014/2013)
Local Language 260+ ¥17,600 $2,861.8 $11.0 57.3% 37.5%
Foreign Language 57 ¥13,100 $2,130.1 $37.4 42.6% 47.2%
Foreign-RS 34 ¥12,130 $1,972.4 $58.0 39.4% 　
Foreign-Buyout 23 ¥970 $157.7 $6.9 3.2% 　
US 27 ¥11,734 $1,908.0 $70.7 38.2% 　
France 6 ¥546 $88.8 $14.8 1.8% 　
South Korea 2 ¥104 $16.9 $8.5 0.3% 　
Other Countries 10 ¥162 $26.3 $2.6 0.5% 　
Total 317+ 30700 $4,991.9 $15.75 100.0% 41.4%
*: 2014 Overal Market Volume = 30.7B RMB 　

 

 

Total foreign gross in 2014 looks to be 13.1B RMB, +47% from last year's 8.9B. Foreign films market share in 2014 should be around 43%.

 

Note, Lucy, despite being counted as a Hollywood movie, was classed a French release by SARFT.

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Olive Global Phenomenon

Olive

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Posted (edited)

Friday est showtimes:

Rise of Legend 27.2%

Interstellar 21.5%

Fury 20.4%

Interstellar loses more showtimes than expected since it has way longer run time than new releases.

Edited by Carol Olive Danvers
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Olive Global Phenomenon

Olive

Posted
Posted (edited)
Thursday Est
Interstellar  23.2M    375M  $61.2M
Penguins      6.0M   94.3M  $15.4M
Don't Go II   7.2M    169M   $7.6M
Turtles         1.8M    380M  $62.0M
Edited by Carol Olive Danvers
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Olive Global Phenomenon

Olive

Posted
Posted
Friday Est
Interstellar  31.0M    407M  $66.4M  -30%
RotL           18.7M    OD      $  3.1M
FURY         12.2M    OD      $  2.0M
Penguins      5.6M   100M   $16.3M  -51%
Don't Go II   3.2M    174M   $28.4M
Turtles         1.0M    381M   $62.2M
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Quigley Box Office Gold

Quigley

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Friday Est
Interstellar  31.0M    407M  $66.4M  -30%
RotL           18.7M    OD      $  3.1M
FURY         12.2M    OD      $  2.0M
Penguins      5.6M   100M   $16.3M  -51%
Don't Go II   3.2M    174M   $28.4M
Turtles         1.0M    381M   $62.2M

 

 

Are the percentages a daily comparison to last Friday?

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A Marvel Fanboy Global Phenomenon

A Marvel Fanboy

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IS vs DOFP Showdown
Date X-MEN-DOFP Interstellar IS-DOFP
Daily (M/￥) C (%) Total (M/￥) Daily (M/￥) C (%) Total (M/￥)  (M/￥)
Wed 　 　 　 ¥35.2 - ¥35.2 35.20
Thu 　 　 　 ¥30.6 -13.07% ¥65.8 65.80
Fri 69.17 - 69.17 ¥44.0 43.79% ¥109.8 40.63
Sat 95.83 38.54% 165.00 ¥76.0 72.73% ¥185.8 20.80
Sun 80.20 -16.31% 245.20 ¥75.2 -1.05% ¥261.0 15.80
Mon 33.85 -57.79% 279.05 ¥31.0 -58.78% ¥292.0 12.95
Tue 33.57 -0.83% 312.62 ¥32.0 3.23% ¥324.0 11.38
Wed 27.74 -17.37% 340.36 ¥27.0 -15.63% ¥351.0 10.64
Thu 21.60 -22.13% 361.96 ¥24.0 -11.11% ¥375.0 13.04
Fri 32.09 48.56% 394.05 ¥31.0 29.17% ¥406.0 11.95
Sat 57.10 77.94% 451.15 ¥60.0 93.55% ¥466.0 14.85
Sun 69.60 21.89% 520.75 ¥55.0 -8.33% ¥521.0 0.25
Mon 47.80 -31.32% 568.55 ¥22.0 -60.00% ¥543.0 -25.55
Tue 16.53 -65.42% 585.08 ¥23.0 4.55% ¥566.0 -19.08
Wed 14.30 -13.49% 599.38 ¥19.0 -17.39% ¥585.0 -14.38
Thu 13.52 -5.45% 612.90 ¥16.0 -15.79% ¥601.0 -11.90
Fri 12.77 -5.55% 625.67 ¥20.0 25.00% ¥621.0 -4.67
Sat 20.70 62.10% 646.37 ¥35.0 75.00% ¥656.0 9.63
Sun 17.00 -17.87% 663.37 ¥30.0 -14.29% ¥686.0 22.63
Week4 44.00 　 707.37 ¥70.0 　 ¥756.0 　
Week5 14.00 　 721.37 ¥15.0 　 ¥771.0 　
　 　 　 　 　 　 　 　

 

By first Sunday, IS gained 15.8m advantage over DOFP but by By second Sunday, IS is losing all the advatange due to Dragonboat holiday that boosted DOFP. On second Monday, for the same reason, IS will start to trail behind DOFP. However, because of higher weekend effect, IS is likely to gain advantage again by third Sunday. In total, IS could gain some 50m advantage through the third and the four week. Both movies basically close by week 5.

 

(All numbers above is RMB)

 

IS also has the RMB-US$ rate advantage, so possible finally gross:  IS $125m VS DOFP $116m.

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Olive Global Phenomenon

Olive

Posted
Posted
Saturday Est
Interstellar  58.0M    466M   $76.0M  -22%
RotL           27.0M    54.2M  $  8.8M
Penguins     21.0M    122M   $19.9M  -25%
FURY          17.1M    28.7M  $  4.7M
Don't Go II   4.1M    178M   $29.0M
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