China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[sgchn40]

10 hours ago, No Prisoners said:

Thx.  just got out of 80% of my position. You get nearly 10% in 24 hours, take it. Let some of it ride though.

So you think BO continues at 40-50% this year. I wrote in my thread today, April thru July could be tough.

 

I believe the floor is 30% for the year. 

[bangbingchan]

1 hour ago, Fake said:

Nah..... I still reckon it will do 220M+. Pre-sales have been dropping every day, but it is being compensated by stronger walk-ups.

Presale for first Monday after holiday is 1.5M now.I don't think 3B is locked

[druv10]

Mermaid's at 100M on Maoyan, 200M will happen for the day and probably push towards 220M like Fake said. Macau3 is continuing to go down and it's lead over KFP3 is shrinking.

 

[Fake]

2PM updates vs final grosses:

 

MON - 170.1 - 267.8 = 1.57x

TUE - 162.8 - 239.5 = 1.47x

WED - 161.9 - 245.2 = 1.52x

THU - 150.5 - 243.7 = 1.62x

FRI - 139.6 - 235.9 = 1.69x

SAT - 128.9

 

Slowly the multiplier is shifting towards the "normal" multiplier of ~2x.

 

Let's say 1.75x for today, which yields 225M.

[Fake]

1 hour ago, bangbingchan said:

Presale for first Monday after holiday is 1.5M now.I don't think 3B is locked

I won't put too much stock in presales...... it will mostly be driven by walk-ups from Monday onward..... which are bound to be HUGE.

 

I see this as the low end

 

Week 1: 1750M

(Mon-Thu: 1000M

Fri-Sun: 750M)

 

Week 2: 850M

 

Week 3: 250M

 

Week 4: 100M

 

Rest: 50M+

 

So 3B will be done even with "harsh" drops.

 

[Olive]

Valentine‘s day showtimes:155k+

Mermaid 34.4%

Macau 3/ TMK2 16.6%

Romcom A 11.6%

Romcom B 9.0%

KFP3  4.7%

[fmpro]

55 minutes ago, Olive Skywalker said:

Valentine‘s day showtimes:155k+

Mermaid 34.4%

Macau 3/ TMK2 16.6%

Romcom A 11.6%

Romcom B 9.0%

KFP3  4.7%

 

Is that good for KFP3

[keysersoze123]

That is good. it will still go up with final count. That's bigger than what it had on CNY. It has recovered well with Macau 3 and TMK2 disappointing.

[efialtes76]

7 hours ago, Olive Skywalker said:

Um, presales dropped a lot, Mermaid may have its first sub-200M day..

6:00PM

Maoyan:

Mermaid-193,13M

TMK2-66,89M

Macau 3-56,98M

KFP3-24,44M

 

[keysersoze123]

220-230m for mermaid. 80m for TMK2 and 65m for Macau3. KFP3 generally does not move much beyond 6PM. Still 25m is great for it.

[Fake]

2 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

6:00PM

Maoyan:

Mermaid-193,13M

TMK2-66,89M

Macau 3-56,98M

KFP3-24,44M

 

Yeah...... 220M looking good............

 

Tomorrow..... 300M!!!!

[peludo]

So today Mermaid can finish with about 1.46 billion, right? That is about $223m in 6 days. Top put into perspective: it is a similar 6-day opening to Ultron (227) or TDK (222) in US... And if tomorrow finishes with about $275m that would be just behind the opening week of TFA (363) and Jurassic World (296), and similar to Avengers (270).

[Lihongkim]

35 minutes ago, Fake said:

Yeah...... 220M looking good............

 

Tomorrow..... 300M!!!!

I'm speechless!!!

[weihai111]

so 500m$ is possible

[Fake]

My optimistic projection for Mermaid:

 

SUN: 300M(1760M cume)

 

WEEK 2:

 

MON: 150M

TUE: 150M

WED: 130M

THU: 120M

FRI: 110M

SAT: 150M

SUN: 130M

 

TOTAL: 940M (2700M cume)

 

WEEK 3:

 

MON: 55M

TUE: 55M

WED: 45M

THU: 40M

FRI: 40M

SAT: 70M

SUN: 55M

 

TOTAL: 360M (3060M cume)

 

WEEK 4: 140M (3200M cume)

 

FINISH: 3300M

[Fake]

My pessimistic projection for Mermaid:

 

SUN: 290M(1750M cume)

 

WEEK 2:

 

MON: 140M

TUE: 140M

WED: 120M

THU: 110M

FRI: 100M

SAT: 140M

SUN: 120M

 

TOTAL: 870M (2620M cume)

 

WEEK 3:

 

MON: 50M

TUE: 50M

WED: 40M

THU: 35M

FRI: 35M

SAT: 60M

SUN: 45M

 

TOTAL: 315M (2935M cume)

 

WEEK 4: 105M (3040M cume)

 

FINISH: 3100M

Edited February 13, 2016 by Fake

[keysersoze123]

So the CNY week gross is 3.5B!!!! what was the gross last year. with 2 more weeks I can see another 2B !!!

[Lihongkim]

1 hour ago, Fake said:

My optimistic projection for Mermaid:

FINISH: 3300M

 

1 hour ago, Fake said:

My pessimistic projection for Mermaid:

FINISH: 3100M

Wow!!! just a small difference between your O & P. Anything over 3B is crazy IMO. 

[Lihongkim]

On 2/25/2015 at 5:32 PM, Olive Skywalker said:

Spring festival Golden week(Feb 18~24) box office hit 1.73 billion yuan/$275m, +37% vs last year.

Market daily gross averaged at $46.2m for the last 6 days.

 

23 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

So the CNY week gross is 3.5B!!!! what was the gross last year. with 2 more weeks I can see another 2B !!!

CNY 2016 double CNY 2015

[keysersoze123]

WOW. I guess this month will be way ahead of last year as well.