MinaTakla Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 Release dates (pretty much official) are just set for some revenue-sharing imports: T5 ---------- Aug 23 A zori zdes tikhie (2015, Russia) --- Aug 25 Assassination (2015, South Korea) --- Aug 25 Pixels ----- Aug 27 MI5 -------- Sep 8 Minions --- Sep 13 IO, A-M, F4 probably all go Oct. Firedeep, what do you think of the dates for MI5 and Minions? Are these good dates for both films or is September a lesser month than August? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Marvel Fanboy Posted July 21, 2015 Author Share Posted July 21, 2015 These are all meh to poor dates. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Marvel Fanboy Posted July 21, 2015 Author Share Posted July 21, 2015 (edited) July looks to reach 5.5B. Projected 2015 year-end box office 44~45B $7B+, 48~51% YOY increase: Jan ~ Jun 20.2B July 5.5B Aug 3.6B Sep 4.1B Oct 4B Nov 3~3.5B (last year was 2.28B) Dec 4B (no major bomb from local films) According to SARFT's report, total box office of imports should be 10.8B as of now. (though I have counted a bit more than 10.6B, 19 quotas have been used). Local share is 54% as of last weekend. Predictions for some major imports for the rest of the year: Terminator: Genisys ----- 800m Assassination + A Zori Zdes Tikhie --- 100m Mission Impossible 5 ---- 1.5B Minions ----- 700m Pixels ---- 300m Inside Out ----- 400m The Fantastic Four ------ 500m Ant-Man ----- 600m Autobahn + Maze Runner 2 + Hitman ---- 1B Spectre ---- 700m The Walk + Everest ----- 500m That's 6.7B+10.8B = 1.75B total, of course there might be some buyout releases, making it 1.8B. Market share of imported films for 2015 should be about 40~41% (around 17B) or a bit more if something breaks out, one of the lower ones of the past ten years, about 8B less than local films. I think, even without SARFT's control on release dates, imports share is very hard to reach 50%, as now only 50~60 imported titles are getting released each year, vs 300 local ones. Without any censorship (on both local and foreign films), without SARFT's control on the release of foreign films, say China releases as many foreign films as possible just like South Korea and Japan, I think in the first few years, imports share could surpass 50% maybe even get close to 60%, but in ten years, with the quality of local films dramatically advancing, the market would be still dominated by Chinese language films (though maybe many of those would be co-productions), easily. In short, without any censorship, protection on local films would be unnecessary IMO: unlike any other country not-named the US, China has a huge market, allowing the possibility of a film industry as strong as Hollywood and its own rich history and culture, providing endless subjects for films. However, it is impossible for SARFT and other authorities to (totally) lift their censorship. Ultimately, the so-called protection on local films is just an excuse. The censorship is there to manipulate people's minds so the current ruling can last as long as possible. Edited July 22, 2015 by firedeep 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 Tueday Estimates Daily total 211M yuan 1). Monster Hunt ¥101M/cume: 879M($141.6M) 2). JianBing Man ¥70.3M/cume: 582M($93.8M) 3). TMK : Hero is back ¥28.4M/cume: 525M($84.6M) 4). Shaun the sheep ¥3.0M/cume: 33.2M($5.3M) 5). Tiny Times 4 ¥2.2M/cume: 479M($77.2M) 6). Forever Young ¥1.4M/cume: 373M($60M) 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CelestialFairyIX Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 How far will Monster Hunt go? I'm thinking $250 - 300 million seems reasonable at this point but what do I know about the China market. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lihongkim Posted July 21, 2015 Share Posted July 21, 2015 Tueday Estimates Daily total 211M yuan 1). Monster Hunt ¥101M/cume: 879M($141.6M) 2). JianBing Man ¥70.3M/cume: 582M($93.8M) 3). TMK : Hero is back ¥28.4M/cume: 525M($84.6M) 4). Shaun the sheep ¥3.0M/cume: 33.2M($5.3M) 5). Tiny Times 4 ¥2.2M/cume: 479M($77.2M) 6). Forever Young ¥1.4M/cume: 373M($60M) Great Monster Hunt, 100m 6days in a row Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sgchn40 Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 Great Monster Hunt, 100m 6days in a row Is this a first for local films? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiangsen Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 Is this a first for local films? Yes... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 How far will Monster Hunt go? I'm thinking $250 - 300 million seems reasonable at this point but what do I know about the China market. 1.75B yuan is the floor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Marvel Fanboy Posted July 22, 2015 Author Share Posted July 22, 2015 Among local films, only Breakup Buddies had two 100m+ days before MH. I think MH is going to make $300m, if not more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sgchn40 Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 Among local films, only Breakup Buddies had two 100m+ days before MH. I think MH is going to make $300m, if not more. Is there a thread on how much MH is making outside of China? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 TF4 MH Day Yn Daily % +/- Last Week Tot $Tot Yn Daily % +/- Last Week Tot $Tot Thur 162 162 27 Fri 195 195 32 131 293 48 Sat 223 14.4% 418 69 187 42.7% 480 79 Sun 213 -4.6% 631 103 181 -3.2% 661 108 Mon 123 -42.1% 754 124 107 -40.9% 768 126 Tues 112 -8.9% 866 142 101 -5.6% 869 142 Wed 95 -15.7% 961 157 Thur 84 -11.0% 1045 171 Fri 87 3.4% -55.3% 1132 186 Sat 130 48.8% -41.9% 1262 207 Sun 118 -9.0% -44.6% 1379 226 Mon 54 -58.3% -56.1% 1433 235 Tue 53 -1.9% -52.8% 1486 244 Wed 43 -18.9% -54.5% 1529 251 Thu 39 -9.3% -53.7% 1568 257 Fri 42 7.7% -51.8% 1610 264 Sat 62 47.6% -52.2% 1672 274 Sun 58 -6.45% -50.8% 1730 284 Mon 26 -55.2% -51.9% 1756 288 Tue 28 7.7% -47.2% 1784 293 Wed 23 -17.9% -46.5% 1807 296 Thu 18 -21.7% -53.8% 1825 299 1975 319 707 116 TF4 held rather well with an average of 50% drops WoW MH dailies started off smaller , can it hold better than TF4? It will have the advantage of staying in theaters longer than 30 days. Lets see how it faces off this weekend Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sgchn40 Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 TF4 MH Day Yn Daily % +/- Last Week Tot $Tot Yn Daily % +/- Last Week Tot $Tot Thur 162 162 27 Fri 195 195 32 131 293 48 Sat 223 14.4% 418 69 187 42.7% 480 79 Sun 213 -4.6% 631 103 181 -3.2% 661 108 Mon 123 -42.1% 754 124 107 -40.9% 768 126 Tues 112 -8.9% 866 142 101 -5.6% 869 142 Wed 95 -15.7% 961 157 Thur 84 -11.0% 1045 171 Fri 87 3.4% -55.3% 1132 186 Sat 130 48.8% -41.9% 1262 207 Sun 118 -9.0% -44.6% 1379 226 Mon 54 -58.3% -56.1% 1433 235 Tue 53 -1.9% -52.8% 1486 244 Wed 43 -18.9% -54.5% 1529 251 Thu 39 -9.3% -53.7% 1568 257 Fri 42 7.7% -51.8% 1610 264 Sat 62 47.6% -52.2% 1672 274 Sun 58 -6.45% -50.8% 1730 284 Mon 26 -55.2% -51.9% 1756 288 Tue 28 7.7% -47.2% 1784 293 Wed 23 -17.9% -46.5% 1807 296 Thu 18 -21.7% -53.8% 1825 299 1975 319 707 116 TF4 held rather well with an average of 50% drops WoW MH dailies started off smaller , can it hold better than TF4? It will have the advantage of staying in theaters longer than 30 days. Lets see how it faces off this weekend Great chart! Today's charting slower than yesterday. The 100m yuan streak should end today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 Wednesday Estimates Daily total 180M yuan 1). Monster Hunt ¥87M/cume: 967M($155.7M) 2). JianBing Man ¥58M/cume: 641M($103.2M) 3). TMK : Hero is back ¥24.5M/cume: 550M($88.6M) 4). The Imitation Game ¥3.1M/cume: 5.9M($0.95M) 5). Shaun the sheep ¥2.7M/cume: 35.9M($5.8M) 6). Tiny Times 4 ¥1.9M/cume: 481M($77.5M) 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MinaTakla Posted July 22, 2015 Share Posted July 22, 2015 In terms of Asia, are there any markets that seem to mirror China in terms of audience interest/movie legs etc? An interesting thought that came to mind when I was looking at MI5 and Big hero 6 as examples. Does success in Singapore/Hong Kong/Taiwan/Philippines etc signal success/flop in China or it doesn't work that way? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samsha22 Posted July 23, 2015 Share Posted July 23, 2015 In terms of Asia, are there any markets that seem to mirror China in terms of audience interest/movie legs etc? An interesting thought that came to mind when I was looking at MI5 and Big hero 6 as examples. Does success in Singapore/Hong Kong/Taiwan/Philippines etc signal success/flop in China or it doesn't work that way? China and India are very similar (except for animations) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sgchn40 Posted July 23, 2015 Share Posted July 23, 2015 (edited) In terms of Asia, are there any markets that seem to mirror China in terms of audience interest/movie legs etc? An interesting thought that came to mind when I was looking at MI5 and Big hero 6 as examples. Does success in Singapore/Hong Kong/Taiwan/Philippines etc signal success/flop in China or it doesn't work that way? It doesn't work that way I am afraid. Chinese films do not do well in Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore these days. For example, MH is a disappointment in HK grossing much less than Ant-man. Furious 7 did not do as well in Hong Kong compared to China. There really seems to be a cultural difference despite them being all of Chinese ancestry. Edited July 23, 2015 by sgchn40 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sgchn40 Posted July 23, 2015 Share Posted July 23, 2015 (edited) MH has crossed ¥1 billion in 1/3 of the time of LIT today. By Sunday, it should be the number 1 local film of all time (not adjusted for inflation)? Edited July 23, 2015 by sgchn40 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiangsen Posted July 23, 2015 Share Posted July 23, 2015 #ChinaBoxOffice Thurs 7.23 (Est) #1 #MonsterHunt $13M/$169.25M #2 #JianbingMan $8.4M/$112.1M #3 #MonkeyKingHeroIsBack $3.6M/$92.3M — China Box Office (@ChinaBoxOffice) July 23, 2015 #ChinaBoxOffice Thurs 7.23 (Est) #4 #Seer5 NEW $1.9M #5 #AuraStar NEW $0.5M #6 @ImitationGame $0.48M/$1.5M Daily Total $28.8M — China Box Office (@ChinaBoxOffice) July 23, 2015 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiangsen Posted July 23, 2015 Share Posted July 23, 2015 #ChinaBoxOffice #MonsterHunt became the highest grossing Chinese film of 2015 w/ an est. $169.25M through Thursday pic.twitter.com/xMUQiIwTtM — China Box Office (@ChinaBoxOffice) July 23, 2015 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...