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A Marvel Fanboy

China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

By A Marvel Fanboy, in China At The Box Office

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Olive Global Phenomenon

Olive

Posted
Posted
Thursday Estimates
Daily total 179M yuan 
1). Monster Hunt ￥81M/cume: 1051M($169.3M) 
2). JianBing Man ￥52.4M/cume: 696M($112.1M) 
3). TMK : Hero is back ￥22.1M/cume: 573M($92.3M) 
4). Seer 5: 12M/cume:12M($1.9M)
5). The Imitation Game ￥3.0M/cume: 9.1M($1.5M) 
6). Shaun the sheep ￥1.5M/cume: 37.4M($6M) 
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Infernus Box Office Gold

Infernus

Posted
Posted

China and India are very similar (except for animations)

 

Yeah, while China is opening more and more to animations and is responding much better to them now then earlier, they are still a no-no in India. India has opened a lot more and become a lot more receptive to Hollywood movies in the past year though so it can be said to be China as it was a few, 5-7, years, ago - a new 'Developing' China.

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sgchn40 Indie Sensation

sgchn40

Posted
Posted

Thursday Estimates

Daily total 179M yuan

1). Monster Hunt ￥81M/cume: 1051M($169.3M)

2). JianBing Man ￥52.4M/cume: 696M($112.1M)

3). TMK : Hero is back ￥22.1M/cume: 573M($92.3M)

4). Seer 5: 12M/cume:12M($1.9M)

5). The Imitation Game ￥3.0M/cume: 9.1M($1.5M)

6). Shaun the sheep ￥1.5M/cume: 37.4M($6M)

By the way, if this is the lockdown period for foreign films, why is Shaun and Imitation Game screening?

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Olive Global Phenomenon

Olive

Posted
Posted

By the way, if this is the lockdown period for foreign films, why is Shaun and Imitation Game screening?

Blackout is just for revenue-sharing Hollywood blockbusters, small- budget movies can be released because they don't make much money at any time.

Shaun and Imitation Game's rights are bought by local distributor for less than a few hundred thousand yuan.

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POTUS 2020 Blockbuster

POTUS 2020

Posted
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MF Lawrence, based on your earlier table, does it mean that MH has no chance of overtaking TF4's gross? Especially since, MH's gross is slower than TF4 the past two days?

I'd say they are pretty close. MH had a thur opening, that burn off could have lowered the daily numbers a little for the following week.

The new opener is weak so little competition this weekend. Looks like MH will do 80-90m today and stay in lock step with TF4. But it must maintain 50% or less drops in the following 2 weeks which TF4 did and is rare in china. That being said MH will hold -35%~ today which is extremely rare and could be a sign of more good holds.

 

TF4 was still making money when it was shut down at 30 days, MH has the advantage of staying open and gain ground if it does fall behind. I think MH has a better than even chance of beating TF4.  Depends on whats opening in the next 2 weeks. 

 

If it does maintain -35% for the weekend and holds like that next weekend, then we start talking about FF7

 

I assume it will hold 50% in which case the table will match TF4 after this weekend and will be a foot race. So here are projections at -35%, daily data matching the performance of the last 7 days just to make it interesting

 

 

  TF4           MH              
Day Yn Daily % +/- Last Week Tot $Tot Yn Daily % +/- Last Week Tot $Tot        
Thur           162     162 27        
Fri 195     195 32 131     293 48        
Sat 223 14.4%   418 69 187 42.7%   480 79        
Sun 213 -4.6%   631 103 181 -3.2%   661 108        
Mon 123 -42.1%   754 124 107 -40.9%   768 126        
Tues 112 -8.9%   866 142 101 -5.6%   869 142        
Wed 95 -15.7%   961 157 87 -13.9%   956 157        
Thur 84 -11.0%   1045 171 81 -6.9%   1037 170        
Fri 87 3.4% -55.3% 1132 186 85 4.9% -35.1% 1122 184 est      
Sat 130 48.8% -41.9% 1262 207 129 51.8% -31.0% 1251 205 proj      
Sun 118 -9.0% -44.6% 1379 226 121 -6.2% -33.1% 1372 225 proj      
Mon 54 -58.3% -56.1% 1433 235 71 -41.3% -33.6% 1443 237 proj      
Tue 53 -1.9% -52.8% 1486 244 66 -7.0% -34.7% 1509 247 proj      
Wed 43 -18.9% -54.5% 1529 251 60 -9.1% -31.0% 1569 257 proj      
Thu 39 -9.3% -53.7% 1568 257 53 -11.7% -34.6% 1622 266 proj      
Fri 42 7.7% -51.8% 1610 264 57 7.5% -32.9% 1679 275 proj      
Sat 62 47.6% -52.2% 1672 274 83 45.6% -35.7% 1762 289 proj      
Sun 58 -6.45% -50.8% 1730 284 77 -7.23% -36.4% 1839 301 proj      
Mon 26 -55.2% -51.9% 1756 288 45 -41.6% -36.6% 1884 309 proj      
Tue 28 7.7% -47.2% 1784 293 41 -8.9% -37.9% 1925 316 proj      
Wed 23 -17.9% -46.5% 1807 296 37 -9.8% -38.3% 1962 322 proj      
Thu 18 -21.7% -53.8% 1825 299 34 -8.1% -35.8% 1996 327 proj      
        1975 319       1996 327        

 

 

 

 

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Olive Global Phenomenon

Olive

Posted
Posted
Friday(7.24.2015) Estimates
Daily total 182M yuan 
1). Monster Hunt ￥79M/cume: 1129M($181.8M) 
2). JianBing Man ￥46M/cume: 741M($119.3M) 
3). TMK : Hero is back ￥21M/cume: 595M($95.8M) 
4). Only You: 18.1M/cume:20M($3.2M)
5). Seer 5 ￥7.2M/cume: 19.1M($3.1M) 
6). The Strange House  ￥4.5M/cume: 4.5M($0.7M)
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fmpro Global Phenomenon

fmpro

Posted
Posted

Friday(7.24.2015) Estimates

Daily total 182M yuan 

1). Monster Hunt ￥79M/cume: 1129M($181.8M) 

2). JianBing Man ￥46M/cume: 741M($119.3M) 

3). TMK : Hero is back ￥21M/cume: 595M($95.8M) 

4). Only You: 18.1M/cume:20M($3.2M)

5). Seer 5 ￥7.2M/cume: 19.1M($3.1M) 

6). The Strange House  ￥4.5M/cume: 4.5M($0.7M)

Drop from thursday with no big openers is not super great IMO

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sgchn40 Indie Sensation

sgchn40

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Posted

Drop from thursday with no big openers is not super great IMO

It is true since most would have hoped for a small increase instead...

Nevertheless, MH and TMK will break all time records this week. By today, TMK will be the top grossing animated film ever while MH will be the top grossing local film.

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POTUS 2020 Blockbuster

POTUS 2020

Posted
Posted (edited)

Drop from thursday with no big openers is not super great IMO

That happens a lot in china. you never see Friday lower than Thursday in domestic, with or w/o new competition. Even Saturdays can be lower than Thursday with some movies.

It is summer and Friday will have a much smaller bump. TF4 bumped just 3% its second Friday. MH's Monday drop was small and it held well throughout the week. I don't think Friday's performance was weak, it was Thursday performance was strong relative to Sunday's number. Evidence of this lies in the fact that Friday WoW was down just 38%. That's tremendous.

Lets see if it can bump 40-50% today. Its still on track to beat TF4 unless a big slide happens next week.

 

 

  TF4           MH            
Day Yn Daily % +/- Last Week Tot $Tot Yn Daily % +/- Last Week Tot $Tot      
Thur           162     162 27      
Fri 195     195 32 131     293 48      
Sat 223 14.4%   418 69 187 42.7%   480 79      
Sun 213 -4.6%   631 103 181 -3.2%   661 108      
Mon 123 -42.1%   754 124 107 -40.9%   768 126      
Tues 112 -8.9%   866 142 101 -5.6%   869 142      
Wed 95 -15.7%   961 157 87 -13.9%   956 157      
Thur 84 -11.0%   1045 171 81 -6.9% -50.0% 1037 170      
Fri 87 3.4% -55.3% 1132 186 79 -2.5% -39.7% 1116 183      
Sat 130 48.8% -41.9% 1262 207 112 41.8% -40.1% 1228 201 est    
Sun 118 -9.0% -44.6% 1379 226 108 -3.6% -40.3% 1336 219 proj    
Mon 54 -58.3% -56.1% 1433 235 60 -44.4% -43.9% 1396 229 proj    
Tue 53 -1.9% -52.8% 1486 244 55 -8.3% -45.5% 1451 238 proj    
Wed 43 -18.9% -54.5% 1529 251 51 -7.3% -41.4% 1502 246 proj    
Thu 39 -9.3% -53.7% 1568 257 45 -11.8% -44.4% 1547 254 proj    
Fri 42 7.7% -51.8% 1610 264 47 4.4% -40.5% 1594 261 proj    
Sat 62 47.6% -52.2% 1672 274 69 46.8% -38.4% 1663 273 proj    
Sun 58 -6.45% -50.8% 1730 284 64 -7.25% -40.7% 1727 283 proj    
Mon 26 -55.2% -51.9% 1756 288 36 -43.8% -40.0% 1763 289 proj    
Tue 28 7.7% -47.2% 1784 293 34 -5.6% -38.2% 1797 295 proj    
Wed 23 -17.9% -46.5% 1807 296 33 -2.9% -35.3% 1830 300 proj    
Thu 18 -21.7% -53.8% 1825 299 30 -9.1% -33.3% 1860 305 proj    
        1975 319       2150 340 -360    
Edited by M F Lawrence
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Infernus Box Office Gold

Infernus

Posted
Posted

Wow - I think Monster Hunt has a shot at FF7 now.

Maybe reaches 400 million USD? 

 

No, no reasonable shot yet. I don't even think this will pass 350m. 325-330m would be a good target unless we get a big saturday and Sunday and exceptional drops over the coming weekdays.

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POTUS 2020 Blockbuster

POTUS 2020

Posted
Posted (edited)

No, no reasonable shot yet. I don't even think this will pass 350m. 325-330m would be a good target unless we get a big saturday and Sunday and exceptional drops over the coming weekdays.

its bumping over 50% today and holding -35% w/o/w. staying just a few % behind TF4

yeah, the weekdays will tell us something. I think the dailies will start beating TF4

350m will be likely if it hold 40% or better next weekend

It will have to hold -38% w/o/w for 6 more weeks to beat FF7

Edited by M F Lawrence
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sgchn40 Indie Sensation

sgchn40

Posted
Posted

its bumping over 50% today and holding -35% w/o/w. staying just a few % behind TF4

yeah, the weekdays will tell us something. I think the dailies will start beating TF4

350m will be likely if it hold 40% or better next weekend

It will have to hold -38% w/o/w for 6 more weeks to beat FF7

Yup, looks like ¥120+ million is in for MH today. Incredible hold. Actually TMK is doing extremely well too!

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