China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[CJohn]

37 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

 

The $144m includes the Sunday numbers?

 

No.

[Cynosure]

12 hours ago, Agafin said:

WC should do about ¥1.01B ($154m) for the five day OW.

 

 

Are you serious?

 

I think it's going to underperform relative to expectations.

[POTUS 2020]

On Friday, April 08, 2016 at 3:23 PM, No Prisoners said:

Im going to track JB and CA3 to see if we can find a multi. Ill keep each movie in one post and edit to make it more accessible. 

 

Jungle Book OD April 15, 2016

                         Maoyan PS

0000 F  4/8.    1.10m

0000 S  4/9     1.33 +20%

0000 S  4/10   1.86 +40%

0000 M 4/11   2.48 +33%

0000 T  4/12   3.67 +50%

0000 W 4/13   5.86 +67%

0000 T  4/14   9.76 +67%

0000 F  4/15 19.10 +96%     Midnight OD

0900 F  4/15 20.00 +  5%      Morning OD

 

OD Total    77.8m      PS Multi 4.1 x 00:00 PS
OW Total 325.0m

Total.       980.0m

OD  Multi.  8.74

OW Multi   3.03

 

50-66% increases in the final days followed by a 100% increase on the last day is a typical trend.

The 4.1 PS multi is an outlier. Most fall between 2.5-3.0

FD at 170k. TJB was at 1.86m. It went on to have the highest PS multi of 4.1 with immediate good WoM and did ¥77.8m OD and a $150m total.v Zoo opened with just 23m/$3.5 then exploded over the next week and made 166m/$25m the following Saturday to a $250m total. FD will have competition and screen loss. With lack of marketing, low PS and competition I don't see how makes anything considerable, <$50m? AB will do $80m.  It may be a sequel, but FN came out when the CBO was less than 1/10th what it is today. 

Edited June 12, 2016 by No Prisoners

[Mojoguy]

I thought China LOVES talking animal animated films?

[superweirdo87]

How is "Finding Nemo" seen in China?

[POTUS 2020]

51 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

I thought China LOVES talking animal animated films?

Maybe they draw the line at fish.

Edited June 12, 2016 by No Prisoners

[Mojoguy]

No.

They should wait until Sunday numbers are out before reporting the 5 day opening week numbers.

[POTUS 2020]

WC on its way to 55-60, -58%~ 1.010B/$153.5m

XMA 15-17m  -50%~   641m/$97.5m

A work day with school off, these are similar to a summer Monday drop. 

 

With FD looking weak and WC having a lot of demand burn, XMA may be able to keep most of its screens next weekend. Should do 50m M-th, and 35m+ next weekend taking it to ¥725m beating DoFP.  However it needs to get to ¥762m to beat DOFP in dollars. 

Edited June 12, 2016 by No Prisoners

[a2k]

So 154m 5-day for WC?

1.5-1.6x gives $231-246m. (ZOOTP did $236m)

Big Huge numbers. Pre-sales and predictions just before the release skewed expectations.

I read $300m+, $400m+ and even $500m on the forums.

Edited June 12, 2016 by a2knet

[keysersoze123]

Since this is a workday I thought evening gross will be strong. So the mid point should be later like 3PM. May be WC can do 65m while XM can do close to 20m.

[keysersoze123]

9 minutes ago, a2knet said:

So 154m 5-day for WC?

1.5-1.6x gives $231-246m. (ZOOTP did $236m)

Big Huge numbers. Pre-sales and predictions just before the release skewed expectations.

I read $300m+, $400m+ and even $500m on the forums.

 

pre-sales the way it started looked like 500m OD. but it was frontloaded. Thursday hold was great. Since then its all downhill. Good thing is it has open 11 more days until ID4-2 opens.

[Blackout]

XMA looks like its slowly regaining showings for the past few days 

[POTUS 2020]

6 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Since this is a workday I thought evening gross will be strong. So the mid point should be later like 3PM. May be WC can do 65m while XM can do close to 20m.

Yup, you're right.  With school out I thought evenings would be weaker than afternoon and reduced the run rate for the evening.  Going to be over 70m and 18m

 

[NCsoft]

10 hours ago, Mojoguy said:

I thought China LOVES talking animal animated films?

May be true but negated by the fact that China never warmed up to Pixar 

Edited June 12, 2016 by NCsoft

[Olive]

Sunday est

WC 73M/1026M

X  19.2m/645M

Alice 2.9m/367m

Birds  1.5m/507m

[snitch]

41 minutes ago, Olive said:

Sunday est

WC 73M/1026M

X  19.2m/645M

Alice 2.9m/367m

Birds  1.5m/507m

 

So about 11 mil, much better than your prediction of 7-8 M.

[Agafin]

That's actually a very good hold for Warcraft. Sub 50% drop.

 

13 hours ago, Cynosure said:

 

I think it's going to underperform relative to expectations.

 

That's not what you said though. There's a difference between "x is guaranteed" and "I think x shall happen." It might disappoint but there's no way to lock anything before the movie has even opened in any territory.

[Mojoguy]

So $156m for first 5 days for Warcraft in China?

[Frank]

By my calculations, Warcraft made $322,921,000 with $155,600,000 of China. 

[POTUS 2020]

School is back in session and the drops will be bigger than a weekday to weekday but much smaller than a typical Monday.  1600 should be the midpoint.

 

WC  tracking mid 40s. Could be 50m if evening plays stronger with an older demo. Maybe 1630 midpoint. 

 

XMA 12-13m

 

FD still with only 600k in PS. If it follows the normal trend of 50% increases this week and a 90% increase on Thursday, just a total of 2.8m in PS and 7-9m OD will happen. Lose big time to AB? Ouch. Disney is going to need to do a marketing push or offee discounted tickets to get these numbers up. This could be another IO situation. With Warcraft having big demand burnoff and XMA finishing up(could have great hold) it could be a very low BO weekend. 

Edited June 13, 2016 by No Prisoners