POTUS 2020 Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 (edited) 8 hours ago, StephenN18 said: Any kind of prediction for X Men? 3 hours ago, A District 3 Engineer said: 110M to beat DOFP in USD, is that possible? It's got DoFP beat in Yuan. XR has changed by 6%. 40m this week thru Thursday This weekend could be 40-60m depending on show count. 25m next week before ID2 opens, and make a little more after. It should have DOFP beat in dollars as well. 770m -790m. $117-120m. Would've had SW7, 825m, beat if it opened a week earlier. FD PS at 900k Tues am AB was at 2m. It popped last minute because of holiday, did 50m OD, would've been 35m w/o holiday. TJB 3.67m popped on OD with great WOM. 80m OD. Still looking like sub 20m OD. Edited June 14, 2016 by No Prisoners 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dementeleus Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 Is there any way to find out what sort of exchange rate a studio is able to lock in for a release? (I'm assuming no.) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 7 hours ago, Frank said: Are you sure? I saw that Taiwan made $2.7m to Warcraft. oh, what I post is only for Taipei city, about 40% of Taiwan. 31.5M NT$ = 980K USD Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 4 hours ago, Telemachos said: Is there any way to find out what sort of exchange rate a studio is able to lock in for a release? (I'm assuming no.) No, since exchange rate doesn't vary too much in a month(a movie's normal run), we usually use the OD ER. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 If midpoint today is 4pm again we could look at numbers around WC 40 mill (big drop, not that good) XMA 13,5 mill (tiny tiny drop, very very good) 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fabiopazzo2 Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 7 hours ago, fmpro said: If midpoint today is 4pm again we could look at numbers around WC 40 mill (big drop, not that good) XMA 13,5 mill (tiny tiny drop, very very good) WC can reach 300$? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olive Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 Tuesday est WC 41.4M/1119M X 14.2M/675M 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 2 minutes ago, fabiopazzo2 said: WC can reach 300$? No 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 2 minutes ago, Olive said: Tuesday est WC 41.4M/1119M X 14.2M/675M Very good for XMA... Meh drop for WC Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alex Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 22 hours ago, fmpro said: More like 225 mill is the roof So what are the est. drops after this week? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 1 hour ago, Alex said: So what are the est. drops after this week? I will let @No Prisoners handle this one. But it will colapse when ID2 opens soon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POTUS 2020 Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 1 hour ago, Alex said: So what are the est. drops after this week? 2 minutes ago, fmpro said: I will let @No Prisoners handle this one. But it will colapse when ID2 opens soon yup. safe to assume a 75%+ drop next Friday against ID2. 60% next mon-thu. still on course for $200-205m by sunday. $10m more next mon-thu, another 10m next fri-thu and not much more after that. should get into the $220s then be done Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 Yeah. Should land around 225 mill~ish when all is said and done.. Pretty good number when they get 50% instead of 25% That plus DOM covers budget and the rest covers P&A.. Homemarket will make the profit Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alex Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 1 minute ago, fmpro said: Yeah. Should land around 225 mill~ish when all is said and done.. Pretty good number when they get 50% instead of 25% That plus DOM covers budget and the rest covers P&A.. Homemarket will make the profit Are you sure that they get 50% from China instead of 25%? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalismanRing Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 11 minutes ago, fmpro said: Yeah. Should land around 225 mill~ish when all is said and done.. Pretty good number when they get 50% instead of 25% That plus DOM covers budget and the rest covers P&A.. Homemarket will make the profit I think these are high end totals China: $225 x .50 =- $112.5m O/S - China = $210m x .40 = $84m Domestic: $60m x .55 = $33m = approx $229.5 from the B.O $160m + $110m = $270m (P&A from Deadline) It'll break even and eventually make a profit with ancillary but the problem is that ancillary from China is almost non existent and the Dom market where it's strongest isn't going to yield a lot in comparison to it's WW theatrical total. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snitch Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 7 minutes ago, TalismanRing said: I think these are high end totals China: $225 x .50 =- $112.5m O/S - China = $210m x .40 = $84m Domestic: $60m x .55 = $33m = approx $229.5 from the B.O $160m + $110m = $270m (P&A from Deadline) It'll break even and eventually make a profit with ancillary but the problem is that ancillary from China is almost non existent and the Dom market where it's strongest isn't going to yield a lot in comparison to it's WW theatrical total. It is much more complex than that. You have to factor in the tie-in , adds and deals with other companys. Plus, Wanda owns 18% of all screens in China, so that is 100% revenue from those. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalismanRing Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 (edited) 14 minutes ago, snitch said: It is much more complex than that. You have to factor in the tie-in , adds and deals with other companys. Plus, Wanda owns 18% of all screens in China, so that is 100% revenue from those. The revenue Wanda gets from Warcraft is partially also revenue they would have got showing another film so that doesn't all go to the bottom line of what makes Warcraft profitable for them. Like Disney advertising on ESPN or ABC might get a lower rate but they still pay into those divisions and that P&A cost is assessed to the specific film even if the money all eventually goes to Disney's bottom line. Tie ins and cross promotional deals are usually are there to mitigate and add on to spending on P&A so that's factored in. Maybe the biggest not easily quantifiable factor though is how it impacts gaming and if it will bring in new and maybe bring back old players to the game. Edited June 14, 2016 by TalismanRing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fmpro Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 48 minutes ago, Alex said: Are you sure that they get 50% from China instead of 25%? Thats what they say Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blaze Heatnix Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 That's a insane drop for Warcraft...75%, lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Agafin Posted June 14, 2016 Share Posted June 14, 2016 46 minutes ago, fmpro said: Thats what they say Who said that? I don't think that even local productions get a 50% cut from the theatrical run there so I highly doubt that Warcraft gets any more than the usual Hollywood fare especially since it's still considered an import there (Wanda bought Legendary after it has already been produced). KFP3 for example is considered a local movie yet only got a 37% cut (according to Firedeep). What I did read was that Wanda's theater chains (about 18% of the country's) do give it a bigger cut (perhaps more than 50%) but the other theaters (making up 82% of the market) give the usual 25%. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...