China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[POTUS 2020]

Saturday

STB                   31.8/332m

Shallows          21.4/36.9m

Nine Lives        21.4/34.3m

IA5                      7.3/419m

Bourne               2.9/440m

 

These movies will lose at least 60% of their screens on Wed the day before Autumn Festival. JTTW3 looking to open big with 3 other releases.  STB should still clear 400m. TS & NL should get over 100m.

 

Quiet around here these days. 

BO growth died and so goes the thread I guess.

Edited September 10, 2016 by No Prisoners

[peludo]

18 minutes ago, No Prisoners said:

Saturday

STB                   31.8/332m

Shallows          21.4/36.9m

Nine Lives        21.4/34.3m

IA5                      7.3/419m

Bourne               2.9/440m

 

These movies will lose at least 60% of their screens on Wed the day before Autumn Festival. JTTW3 looking to open big with 3 other releases.  STB should still clear 400m. TS & NL should get over 100m.

 

Quiet around here these days. 

BO growth died and so goes the thread I guess.

There is any big local release coming?

[POTUS 2020]

Just now, peludo said:

There is any big local release coming?

Journey to the West 3 on Wed 

[peludo]

9 minutes ago, No Prisoners said:

Journey to the West 3 on Wed 

That is, at least, a billion Yuan contender, isn't it? I do not have exact data, but if I remember well the second part did about $200m

Edited September 10, 2016 by peludo

[POTUS 2020]

9 minutes ago, peludo said:

That is, at least, a billion Yuan contender, isn't it? I do not have exact data, but if I remember well the second part did about $200m

Google translate threw me off.

I looked it up on imdb. It's, A Chinese Odyssey 3. Not JTTW. 

It's at 3m in PS. Could open 70m + and do well over the holiday weekend. Not sure about 1b

[Olive]

A Chinese Odyssey 3 won't be that big, it has different cast from the first two movies, nobody wants this movie because the first two are so good..

Presales are boosted by cheap tickets provided by the distributors.

[POTUS 2020]

Sunday

STB                   24.9/358m

Nine Lives        19.2/54.4m

Shallows          18.3/55.7m

IA5                      7.3/426m

Bourne               2.5/443m

Edited September 11, 2016 by No Prisoners

[Olive]

Weekend Box Office(Sep.9-11/2016)						(million)
Rank	Movie	Weekend￥	Wknd $	Change +/-	Total￥	Total $
1	Star Trek Beyond (US)	76.02	$11.38	-63%	358.17	$53.62
2	The Shallows (US)	56.10	$8.40	NEW	56.26	$8.42
3	Nine Lives (US)	54.80	$8.20	NEW	54.85	$8.21
4	Ice Age 5 (US)	17.51	$2.62	-59%	426.34	$63.82
5	Jason Bourne (US)	7.30	$1.09	-70%	443.12	$66.34
6	Absolutely Anything（UK）	6.53	$0.98	NEW	6.53	$0.98
7	Parasyte (Japan)	5.50	$0.82	-78%	45.52	$6.81
8	Mc Dull 2016 (China/HK)	4.68	$0.70	NEW	4.71	$0.71
9	Line Walker  (China/HK)	2.69	$0.40	-68%	604.71	$90.53
10	Days of Our Own (China)	2.14	$0.32	-91%	39.64	$5.93

[Nova]

21 minutes ago, Olive said:

Weekend Box Office(Sep.9-11/2016)						(million)
Rank	Movie	Weekend￥	Wknd $	Change +/-	Total￥	Total $
1	Star Trek Beyond (US)	76.02	$11.38	-63%	358.17	$53.62
2	The Shallows (US)	56.10	$8.40	NEW	56.26	$8.42
3	Nine Lives (US)	54.80	$8.20	NEW	54.85	$8.21
4	Ice Age 5 (US)	17.51	$2.62	-59%	426.34	$63.82
5	Jason Bourne (US)	7.30	$1.09	-70%	443.12	$66.34
6	Absolutely Anything（UK）	6.53	$0.98	NEW	6.53	$0.98
7	Parasyte (Japan)	5.50	$0.82	-78%	45.52	$6.81
8	Mc Dull 2016 (China/HK)	4.68	$0.70	NEW	4.71	$0.71
9	Line Walker  (China/HK)	2.69	$0.40	-68%	604.71	$90.53
10	Days of Our Own (China)	2.14	$0.32	-91%	39.64	$5.93

Is that a decent number for a movie like The Shallows? I'm not sure how films like that play in China so I was just wondering if you have any insight on it 

[Gavin Feng]

China Box Office
Jason Bourne
Day #	Date			Rank	Gross	% - YD	% - LW	Gross-to-Date	Weekly Gross	% - Change
					USD / M			USD / M	USD / M
0	Aug.	22	Mon	1	$0.61	-	-	$0.61	$49.31	-
1		23	Tue	1	$11.20	-	-	$11.81
2		24	Wed	1	$7.53	-36.22%	-	$19.34
3		25	Thu	1	$5.90	-21.60%	-	$25.24
4		26	Fri	1	$6.69	13.37%	-	$31.93
5		27	Sat	1	$9.61	43.56%	-	$41.54
6		28	Sun	2	$7.77	-19.12%	-	$49.31
7		29	Mon	2	$3.34	-57.07%	-	$52.64	$14.38	-70.83%
8		30	Tue	2	$2.99	-10.38%	-74.68%	$55.63
9		31	Wed	2	$2.45	-18.14%	-67.50%	$58.08
10	Sep.	1	Thu	2	$1.92	-21.54%	-67.47%	$60.00
11		2	Fri	5	$0.90	-53.33%	-86.61%	$60.90
12		3	Sat	3	$1.57	74.79%	-83.70%	$62.46
13		4	Sun	4	$1.23	-21.63%	-84.21%	$63.69
14		5	Mon	4	$0.47	-61.72%	-85.91%	$64.16	$2.89	-79.93%
15		6	Tue	4	$0.47	-0.64%	-84.38%	$64.63
16		7	Wed	3	$0.44	-6.45%	-82.15%	$65.06
17		8	Thu	3	$0.41	-6.90%	-78.82%	$65.47
18		9	Fri	6	$0.27	-33.33%	-69.75%	$65.74
19		10	Sat	5	$0.46	69.44%	-70.67%	$66.20
20		11	Sun	5	$0.38	-18.03%	-69.33%	$66.58

[Gavin Feng]

China Box Office
Star Trek Beyond
Day	Date		Rank	Gross	% - YD	% - LW	Gross-to-Date	Day #	Weekly Gross	% - Change
				USD / M			USD / M		USD / M
Thu	Sep . 1		1	$0.37	-	-	$0.37	0	$30.85	-
Fri	Sep . 2		1	$9.31	-	-	$9.68	1
Sat	Sep . 3		1	$12.19	25.93%	-	$21.87	2
Sun	Sep . 4		1	$8.98	-26.37%	-	$30.85	3
Mon	Sep . 5		1	$3.37	-62.44%	-	$34.22	4	$22.70	-26.43%
Tue	Sep . 6		1	$2.97	-11.78%	-	$37.20	5
Wed	Sep . 7		1	$2.65	-11.08%	-	$39.84	6
Thu	Sep . 8		1	$2.30	-13.03%	-	$42.14	7
Fri	Sep . 9		1	$2.76	20.20%	-71.44%	$44.91	8
Sat	Sep . 10		1	$4.91	77.51%	-59.74%	$49.81	9
Sun	Sep . 11		1	$3.73	-23.97%	-58.43%	$53.55	10
Mon	Sep . 12		2	$1.29	-65.46%	-61.78%	$54.83	11

[Gokai Red]

Despite The Mermaid earlier this year, it really seems like China BO has slowed down. Obviously it can't keep going up forever, but it seems like gone are the days when record after record would be broken. When is the next Chinese super blockbuster coming out?

[seduh]

I was thinking the same. It seems that box office has been very quiet lately. Maybe it's stabilizing (it had crazy jumps in the last years)

[POTUS 2020]

On Thursday, July 21, 2016 at 4:24 PM, No Prisoners said:

funny you brought that up I was just working on an updated table for BO/GDP. That's the primary indicator.  Many look at the trajectory over the years and assume 30%+ will continue because the population is so large, more moving to the city and more theaters to be built. The facts are; the city population is increasing by less than 2%, GDP is down to 6% growth and that is considered to be fudged. With BO/GDP at the level of mature markets, the growth will now rely on GDP and urban migration, 2-6% per year. The audience is maturing and rejecting some sequels like the rest of the world as we see some of them barely match their predecessors now. Deadline recently mentioned that China is expected to pass Domestic again, they haven't looked at the recent numbers and realized that bandwagon is dead.

 

 

	GDP (000)	GDP Growth	BO (000)	BO Growth	BO/GDP	Urban %
South Korea	1,400,000		1,600		0.114%	82
Australia	1,450,000		1,000		0.069%	89
Mexico	1,280,000		870		0.068%	79
China 2016	11,300,000	+4.5%	7,500	+10%	0.066%	57
France	2,850,000		1,800		0.063%	79
China 2015	10,800,000	+5.0%	6,800	+42%	0.063%	56
Russia	1,326,000		796		0.060%	74
UK	3,050,000		1,700		0.056%	82
Dom 2016	20,000,000		11,000		0.055%	81
Spain	1,400,000		700		0.050%	77
China 2014	10,400,000	+5.8%	4,800	+41%	0.046%	55
Japan	4,600,000		2,000		0.043%	92
Italy	2,150,000		800		0.037%	67
China 2013	9,500,000	+12.0%	3,400	+32%	0.036%	54
Brazil	2,350,000		800		0.034%	80
Germany	3,850,000		1,300		0.034%	69
China 2012	8,500,000	+12.0%	2,600	+34%	0.031%	53
China 2011	7,500,000	+15.0%	1,900	+33%	0.025%	52
Average	5,761,444		2,854		0.053%	71

 

BO at .050 -.070% of GDP is the sweet spot for large established markets. China will be near the top of that range after this year.  SK is an outlier. They love movies and they make good ones that gross $80-100m in a market that is a little more that 1/10th the size of domestic. If china was to become like an SK outlier it will have to get its urban population up to 80%. That will take 25 years at the current rate migration.

Below .050% are: Italy and Germany with lower urban populations.  Brazil is a growing market. Japan is an aging market.

The economy has been exploding since the 90s, the BO didn't get going until 04, it was playing catch up at twice the growth rate of GDP and caught up in half the time.

I think we see flat to up 10%, with some down years mixed in, in the years ahead leading to an average annual increase of 3-5%.

 

2 hours ago, Gokai Red said:

Despite The Mermaid earlier this year, it really seems like China BO has slowed down. Obviously it can't keep going up forever, but it seems like gone are the days when record after record would be broken. When is the next Chinese super blockbuster coming out?

 

1 hour ago, seduh said:

I was thinking the same. It seems that box office has been very quiet lately. Maybe it's stabilizing (it had crazy jumps in the last years)

The amount spent on BO vs GDP/nom has reached established market levels.  The growth stopped cold right after CNY and right at the upper end of other large markets BO spending ratio. 

 

SK is the outlier with both a high urban population and high GDP/ppp

[Nova]

So I watched The Mermaid today and I get why it was big. It's a very good film. I wish I had watched it sooner. 

[Lihongkim]

20 hours ago, Nova said:

So I watched The Mermaid today and I get why it was big. It's a very good film. I wish I had watched it sooner. 

I'm glad that you liked Mermaid. I watched it with my family during CNY. It's so enjoyable and I could hear everyone in the cinema laugh so hard. 

[Polaroids]

On 9/14/2016 at 0:12 AM, Gokai Red said:

Despite The Mermaid earlier this year, it really seems like China BO has slowed down. Obviously it can't keep going up forever, but it seems like gone are the days when record after record would be broken. When is the next Chinese super blockbuster coming out?

The next one with the potential to be huge is Journey to the West 2 coming out on CNY. Different cast but the selling point is Tsui Hark as the director and Stephen Chow as the producer.

[Nova]

8 hours ago, Lihongkim said:

I'm glad that you liked Mermaid. I watched it with my family during CNY. It's so enjoyable and I could hear everyone in the cinema laugh so hard. 

Yea I really really liked it. I wish I had watched it sooner. I've been looking at more international films since I watched the Train to Busan and loved that as well. The Mermaid and Train to Busan are two of my favorite films this year for sure. 

[jiangsen]

THURSDAY ESTIMATES (MID-AUTUMN FESTIVAL)

A Chinese Odyssey: Part 3 - ￥85.5M/￥127M

Z Storm 2 - ￥34.2M/￥52.8M

Cock and Bull - ￥22.8M/￥37M

Soulmate - ￥18.1M/￥28.3M

Star Trek Beyond - ￥12.6M/￥394M

My War - ￥9.6M (OD)

Nine Lives - ￥5.9M/￥78.85M

McDull: Rise of the Rice Cooker - ￥4.95M/￥9.7M

Ice Age: Collision Course - ￥4.35M/￥434M

The Shallows - ￥3.6M/￥80.45M

 

[Lihongkim]

22 hours ago, Nova said:

Yea I really really liked it. I wish I had watched it sooner. I've been looking at more international films since I watched the Train to Busan and loved that as well. The Mermaid and Train to Busan are two of my favorite films this year for sure. 

There are so many good Asian films you need to watch. Continue your journey guy...