China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[efialtes76]

any updtate for Escape Plan?$40m?

[Olive]

any updtate for Escape Plan?$40m?

1.6m Wed, 245m total

[druv10]

1.6m Wed, 245m total

 

Is Thor 2 done? 55M? 

[Olive]

Is Thor 2 done? 55M?

Around that.

[Bob Violence]

Benny Chan is a fine director. Who Am I? is one of my favourite movies. I'm well up for The White Storm, and hearing of its running time has only made me more excited.

 

So that's two votes for Who Am I? Here's the thing, when the go-to movie for a particular director is something they co-directed with a much, much more experienced filmmaker, then a revaluation might be in order. I don't consider Raymond Lee a great director because he has credits on New Dragon Inn and a couple of Swordsman movies, or Patrick Yau because he did those great movies with Johnnie To in the '90s. I'd agree with Benny Chan being a fine director if he'd stopped with Who Am I? and Big Bullet, but alas...

[A Marvel Fanboy]

$35m total for CF seems too high. more like sub $30m.

[vc2002]

Do they hate you for it?

 

They will actually "kind of" admire you, because speaking English is still not what most can do in China.

[Alex Bennett]

They will actually "kind of" admire you, because speaking English is still not what most can do in China.

Define speaking.    Everyone in China can speak yes or no in English.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

 

Gravity-----------15.7M----------------235m

CF----------------8.6m -----------------88m

Control------- --- 3.9m -------------- 25.8m

TDW ----------    2 M- --------------326M

EP-----------------1.5m --- ------------241m

 

Uh ... that is ugly for Gravity, down 65% from Sunday. Noticed its Sunday was also down over 20% from Saturday. While Life of Pi Sunday did not decrease from Saturday. That is the difference between astonishing run and aeverage run. But of course, Pi is a superior film than Gravity.

 

Based on that Monday number, the better case:

 

220m (33/29/24/32/58/44)

140m (16/17/16/14/18/33/26)

70m

30m

5m

= 465M finish

 

Worse case:

220m (33/29/24/32/58/44)

130m (16/17/15.5/12.5/16/29/23)

50m

15m

3m

= 420M finish

 

Apparantly 500m is not happening at this point. 420~465m $69~76m total depending on how new releases hurt it.

 

Thursday estimates:

 

Gravity-----------14M----------------  283m

CF---------------- 7.3m -----------------113m

Control------- --- 3.6m -------------- 37.4m

TDW ----------    1.7 M- --------------334M

EP-----------------1.8m --- ------------247m

 

Friday screening count (roughly):

 

The White Storm ----------- 27.3% (NEW)

Gravity ----------------------- 26.4% (33.9%)

CF----------------------------- 18.3% (26.7%)

EPIC -------------------------- 8.5% (NEW)

Control ----------------------- 6.4% (15.2%)

TDW -------------------------- 2.5% (7.2%)

EP----------------------------- 2.9% (6.7%)

 

[*]A level opening for TWS as a local film, 22000 shows on OD. There are hopes for 400m on it, which I think is improbable. 90~100m 3days and 300m total has more realistic shot. Should win at least Friday easily. For example, Cold War did 95M 4days last November. It is possible that TWS 3-days opening tops that number.

 

Cold War also holds the local produced gangster/action flick record with 253M, if Switch (300m) doesnt count ..... TWS should refresh the record without problem.

 

[*]Gravity is not showing any spectacular staying power, though so far it indeed is playing right on course with the high end of my early projection. However we did not know its screening count would drop 23% on Friday. That puts 18m Friday in uncertain. Even if Friday does hit 18m (it is still very likely), A 140m or so 2nd week is nothing special in terms of legs. Tuesday-Sunday drop would be around 44%, with only one major opener on its 2nd Friday. One word to describle: average.

 

Bigger test is coming week, which has two big new releases: one bigger than TWS (No Man's Land, Tuesday) and one smaller than TWS  (The Four 2, Friday). A sandwich. 70M 3rd week is probably not happening. 60M probably.

 

When I earlier insisted that Gravity wont hit either 600m or $100m (500m more realistic), the super crowded schedule and not out-of-world-level WOM had been my arguments. Well looks worrys turn true. Gravity now should be happy to settle in the 440m range. The good news is that it can play in IMAX until end of its run.

 

[*]The performance of CF, on the other hand, so far almost has become something not worth mentioning ... At first, it was small increase from its predecessor, then its was struggling to match its predecessor, and now that struggling proves to be little helpful. Middle 170m $28m at the moment sounds about right.

 

[*]EPIC has just half screening count as Hotel (73m) did on its OD. Will do less than Hotel.

[*] 

[*]Control can be gone ....

[*] 

[*]TDW and EP from here on, with less than 2000 shows per day nationalwide and less than 10 people per show, are pretty much closing before they officially close by next Wed and Sunday respectively.

[Olive]

NOT good hold for CF

Edited November 28, 2013 by Olive

[alee7915]

And Gravity ? 

 

Can it go to $75 M  ?

 

Yes.  It can go $100 M...  

[zackzack]

 

[*]The performance of CF, on the other hand, so far almost has become something not worth mentioning ... At first, it was small increase from its predecessor, then its was struggling to match its predecessor, and now that struggling proves to be little helpful. Middle 170m $28m at the moment sounds about right.

 

Is this something to do with the protagonist being a female?

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Is this something to do with the protagonist being a female?

dont think so  ... 

 

CF is not doing well, relatively, in all Asian/Eastern markets. Those kinds of Young Adult movies are just not popular here. 

[alee7915]

zackzack VS Algren™    ... ... lol

Edited November 29, 2013 by deep mama

[dezorz]

 

[*]Gravity is not showing any spectacular staying power .....  One word to describle: average.

 Gravity now should be happy to settle in the 440m range.

 

 

 

well, being a 3rd biggest foreign film of 2013 is not your usual ´average´.   i hopped gravity would have better legs in its second week, now it seems it will not. shame. it remains to be seen how much imax can help gravity in its 3rd and 4th weekend.  but even if it finisnes with 75M dollars, it is a huge success.

[dezorz]

dont think so  ... 

 

CF is not doing well, relatively, in all Asian/Eastern markets. Those kinds of Young Adult movies are just not popular here. 

 

this is exactly why i thought catching fire would do half of gravity eventhough it is a following to very successfull hunger games. maybe, when chinese do their own ´battle royale´ type of movie it would make 100M dollars. i am curious, if hollwyood would make a running man remake with schwarzeneger, how big it would be in china.  in US it woul not make more than 30M, but in china, seeing EP, it could do more than any hunger games movie.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

well, being a 3rd biggest foreign film of 2013 is not your usual ´average´.   i hopped gravity would have better legs in its second week, now it seems it will not. shame. it remains to be seen how much imax can help gravity in its 3rd and 4th weekend.  but even if it finisnes with 75M dollars, it is a huge success.

I meant in terms of legs. Very normal legs.

 

Hollywood 2013 had a bad year in China anyway, only 4 movies over 400m yuan, on par with 2011 (4) in this catagory.  Last year there were 6. 

[dezorz]

I meant in terms of legs. Very normal legs.

 

Hollywood 2013 had a bad year in China anyway, only 4 movies over 400m yuan, on par with 2011 (4) in this catagory.  Last year there were 6. 

well, 2 things are to blame. first, china doesnt play fair. second, chinese film on rise. i am not happy about the first thing, but i keep my fingers crossed for the second.

[Bob Violence]

Free Birds is supposedly in line for release sometime around the Chinese New Year (which falls on January 31st next year). Yes, Free Birds. A couple of local animated films (something called I Am a Wolf and another one of those goddamn Xi Yangyang movies) are scheduled for mid-January, so I'm guessing they'll put a couple of weeks of space between them and Free Birds. Wouldn't really be surprised if it gets put against Despicable Me 2...

Edited November 29, 2013 by Bob Violence

[A Marvel Fanboy]

well, 2 things are to blame. first, china doesnt play fair. second, chinese film on rise. i am not happy about the first thing, but i keep my fingers crossed for the second.

Aout the first. China Film / Sarft have always been like that. I dont see how it could suddenly cause a dramatic change on the market compared previous years.

 

Second is actually a good thing. At least it means the marketplace is still rocking. It doesnt really matter what films the audience prefer as long as more and more people are showing up in theaters. What people say, as long as one (for any studio) is still at the table, lose or win at the moment is no big deal, because it is just a matter of time before he gets his share of cake. What really a problem is when one can not get his chance to play on the table.

 

The culture differences mean Hollywood can never fully take over the China film market, even if Sarft fully loosen its regulations (which is of course, at least for now, impossible). Check South Korea and Japan, both of which have very loose rugulation over foreign releases, but still local films dominate. 

 

Anyway, release your film, get your share of money and then leave. That is just very junior game playing. Smart studios are already beginning coproductions on different levels. Unlike every other international market, China is one that will in a few years become as big as the US film market (and eventually possibly surpass the US market). That is something never happened before. And that makes deep co-productions on both mega tent poles and small indies possible for the first time in world cinema history. We'll see how it turns out. But I wont be surprised, if say in 10 years, the global entertainment industry looks quite different from what it looks today.

 

Speaking back weak 2013, it is also partly due to the fact that the blockbusters Hollywood have been releasing this year happen to be less appealing abroad compared to 2012. We can see the trend as those blockbuster overally do much less numbers in international markets than those in 2012. The case just got strengthened in China as Chinese local films happened to be playing much stronger than 2012. There are big years and small years. I figure 2014 should be fairly even.