China Box Office Thread | Deadpool & Wolverine- July 26

[Tower]

So how many people have seen FF7 in China ?

Any estimate for an attendance number ?

Thanks a lot.

51.8M admissions per the entgroup site posted above.

[Olive]

Entergroup always under-reports a bit.

[The Futurist]

Thx guys and oh boy, when you do the maths using mature western markets, China still has a lot of growing to do ...

Biggest success in France was Titanic with 21m tickets whist is about 1/3 of the french population.

Apply that percentage to China and you have 433m tickets out of a population of 1,3B people.

Biggest us movies are 100m+ ticket sellers.

And you re telling me 52m chinese saw FF7 ? Crazy.

[tupek]

Well, many old movies had hundreds of millions admissions when western movies were forbidden in China. 

Hundreds?

[Olive]

Well, 50% of Chinese population are living in the rural area and no theaters are built near them.

General moviegoers who at least visit cinemas once a year should be no more than 300M IMO.

Most people still think the ticket prices are way too expensive.

75% of Chinese moviegoers are 19-35 years old, the average is 21.5 years old.

In the near future some movie should reach 100M admissions.

[Olive]

Hundreds?

Yeah, 500M admissions for Shaolin Temple.

[Olive]

Yearly admissions of Top 5 cities in China:

#1 Beijing - 51.98M - 22.5M inhabitants

#2 Shanghai - 46.2M - 25M

#3 Guangzhou - 32.4M - 13M

#4  Shenzhen - 29.4M - 10.7M

#5 Chengdu - 29.5M - 14.2M

[keysersoze123]

Yeah, 500M admissions for Shaolin Temple.

 

WOW. I assume ticket prices were cheap. Still BO would have been insane. I dont think there are any equivalent BO for any movie in any country.

 

You mentioned TOp 5 BO locations but what % of folks live outside these cities and are there multiplexes to serve folks outside cities?

 

Edit: your post above already answered it. I guess China could grow even more if they start serving rural population. At least domestic movies should benefit.

Edited April 28, 2015 by keysersoze123

[grim22]

WOW. I assume ticket prices were cheap. Still BO would have been insane. I dont think there are any equivalent BO for any movie in any country.

 

You mentioned TOp 5 BO locations but what % of folks live outside these cities and are there multiplexes to serve folks outside cities?

 

Well, India has a film industry which penetrated even interior towns in the smallest nooks of the country. The largest grosser in terms of footfalls is Sholay with an estimated 150 Million admissions: http://www.naachgaana.com/2011/06/14/biggest-bollywood-hits-on-5-scales-ff-iar-roi-ppp-drs/

 

The top 5 estimated admissions are all 50 Million and above.

Edited April 28, 2015 by grim22

[keysersoze123]

Well, India has a film industry which penetrated even interior towns in the smallest nooks of the country. The largest grosser in terms of footfalls is Sholay with an estimated 150 Million admissions: http://www.naachgaana.com/2011/06/14/biggest-bollywood-hits-on-5-scales-ff-iar-roi-ppp-drs/

 

The top 5 estimated admissions are all 50 Million and above.

 

Then why dont we see movies with 100m admissions today. I would think that should not be difficult with good penetration.

[grim22]

Then why dont we see movies with 100m admissions today. I would think that should not be difficult with good penetration.

 

The Indian movie industry is highly fragmented, each state has it's own language movies and movie industries with their own system, setup, heroes/heroines and so on. It is extremely hard to make a movie which will appeal across every single state, language and culture even within India. Only half the country actually speaks or even understands Hindi. The Tamil, Telugu, Malayalam and Kannada industries serve the southern states, Bhojpuri for the interiors of North India, Gujarati, Marathi etc. have their specific industries as well.

[Fake]

Then why dont we see movies with 100m admissions today. I would think that should not be difficult with good penetration.

Two main reasons:

1. Piracy: You have DVDrip quality prints available on net and local stores @ Rs. 10 by first Sunday itself. So A LOT of admissions are lost.

2. Quality: Good movies which can sustain for months at cinema have simply stopped coming.

[Fake]

The Indian movie industry is highly fragmented, each state has it's own language movies and movie industries with their own system, setup, heroes/heroines and so on. It is extremely hard to make a movie which will appeal across every single state, language and culture even within India. Only half the country actually speaks or even understands Hindi. The Tamil, Telugu, Malayalam and Kannada industries serve the southern states, Bhojpuri for the interiors of North India, Gujarati, Marathi etc. have their specific industries as well.

And this too......

[POTUS 2020]

Thx guys and oh boy, when you do the maths using mature western markets, China still has a lot of growing to do ...

Biggest success in France was Titanic with 21m tickets whist is about 1/3 of the french population.

Apply that percentage to China and you have 433m tickets out of a population of 1,3B people.

Biggest us movies are 100m+ ticket sellers.

And you re telling me 52m chinese saw FF7 ? Crazy.

A ticket in france(US and Europe too) is affordable to just about everyone. work 1 hour or less and buy a ticket. In china, minimum wage can vary from $1-3 per hour. For some its nearly a days pay to buy a ticket. That doesn't include the 650m that are rural and subsist. Even when GDP matches that of  the US, BO will not match as the money will be distributed to 4 times as many people many of which will not buy a ticket. I believe their admissions would go thru the roof(maybe 230m sold to the 690m that live in urban areas, same percentage as france, for a big movie) if they brought ticket prices down to the average hourly minimum wage, say $1.50- $2.

 

In India they have pricing from $1-$4. They sell 3,3B tickets or nearly 3x their population, That's close to DOM at 3.5x population

China's BO would then be 4B in tickets sold if it matched India or DOM but not at $7 per ticket  That's where I feel that you have to look at the amount of people that are both urban and can afford a ticket. Is that 200m? 300m? 400m? Will ticket sales for the all-time movie max at 1/3 that number. Will total ticket sales be 3-4 times that number? I think we'll see the all-time movie max out at 70-80m admissions and total admissions begin to level off at 1B-1.2B at these prices

[Olive]

AOU already has sold out midnight showtimes.

[POTUS 2020]

Yearly admissions of Top 5 cities in China:

#1 Beijing - 51.98M - 22.5M inhabitants

#2 Shanghai - 46.2M - 25M

#3 Guangzhou - 32.4M - 13M

#4  Shenzhen - 29.4M - 10.7M

#5 Chengdu - 29.5M - 14.2M

these cities are quickly approaching 3 tickets per person per year like DOM and other countries and have surpassed countries like Japan that sell than 2 per capita. we may see a decline in growth real soon

[Olive]

It seems that April 2015 Box office just doubles April 2014.

[druv10]

AOU already has sold out midnight showtimes.

 

What is your prediction for OD? Do you think 25M, more or less?

[Olive]

What is your prediction for OD? Do you think 25M, more or less?

25-30M

[keysersoze123]

I think 200m rmb can happen. Pre-sales look stronger than Furious 7. Only question is can it get similar number of showtimes as Furious 7?