China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

[Issac Newton]

4 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

what type of gross could we have expected from avatar if it had as many screenings as wandering earth 2 over CNY?

Firstly, this isn't happening. You can see Hollywood controlling 80-90% Share in Europe leading to almost zero existence to local works.

 

East Asian countries currently have strong local works like markets of South Korea &Japan. But, remaining countries like Vietnam &Malaysia market has collapsed completely and are a region where local works can't recover budget. Indonesia still surviving &Philippines already dying out.

 

Although, many of us think that all works should get chance to play on lucrative festival but China's today's policy of no-Hollywood Plays on Spring Festival/National Holidays safe their local content from total collapse (You know how inferior are Chinese Productions)

 

10 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

Cant imagine things have changed too much since last week, so I ask, if covid was somewhat under control why wasnt avatar grossing 10-20 million a day; the types of daily grosses that would correspond with many of our pre-release no covid predictions

Remember China is a fastburn ~hard to find films doing more than 3x (need a really impressive WOM) &Piracy

 

13 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

last week, avatar still had over 100k screenings and was only making 2-3 million a day, most people believe that has a lot to do with covid, now a week later CNY new year comes around and we get 2 500 million plus grossers with one threatening 700 million, all the while its possible this year's CNY box office haul surpasees last year's non-covid affected one

At the end, you can't compete with Spring Festival Works ~they are really strong.. And when it comes to them they save money weeks ahead. (Because you don't know how high a ticket price can go)

[interiorgatordecorator]

7 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

Firstly, this isn't happening. You can see Hollywood controlling 80-90% Share in Europe leading to almost zero existence to local works.

 

East Asian countries currently have strong local works like markets of South Korea &Japan. But, remaining countries like Vietnam &Malaysia market has collapsed completely and are a region where local works can't recover budget. Indonesia still surviving &Philippines already dying out.

 

Although, many of us think that all works should get chance to play on lucrative festival but China's today's policy of no-Hollywood Plays on Spring Festival/National Holidays safe their local content from total collapse (You know how inferior are Chinese Productions)

 

Remember China is a fastburn ~hard to find films doing more than 3x (need a really impressive WOM) &Piracy

 

At the end, you can't compete with Spring Festival Works ~they are really strong.. And when it comes to them they save money weeks ahead. (Because you don't know how high a ticket price can go)

 

For the first point I was talking about a hypothetical scenario to ask if avatar making 2 million a day last week was a sign of lack of interest or something like saving money for spring festival as you say

 

And shouldnt the massive covid wave during the opening weeks have totally nullified the fastburn argument? and with the last point, some believed avatar 2 was capable of doing a billion from china, shouldnt a 1 billion potential grosser be strong enough to compete against spring festival works? 

Edited January 27, 2023 by interiorgatordecorator

[Issac Newton]

3 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

And shouldnt the massive covid wave during the opening weeks have totally nullified the fastburn argument? and with the last point, some believed avatar 2 was capable of doing a billion from china, shouldnt a 1 billion potential grosser be strong enough to compete against spring festival works?

Whether it's a CoVid-19 affecting or not. Everyone agrees with the fact that China is fastburn

 

Without CoVid-19, it could have done $300M OW / $700M Final. But, ofc no extension. ~ which is still less than 3x multiple.

 

And ofc Spring Festival Works are stronger than Avatar 2. Please don't ever attempt to compare them.

[Issac Newton]

China at the same time is good with HD Cam Rip 

[Clear Sky Master]

25 minutes ago, Sophia Jane said:

no,this one ¥1300m max

it’s a kids movie and the attendance seems to holding steady ever since it premiered. Also, there is literally no competition besides Deep Sea till at least March.
 

I don’t see it ending below $200 million especially with CNY boost. 

[teard1972]

39 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

 

And shouldnt the massive covid wave during the opening weeks have totally nullified the fastburn argument? and with the last point, some believed avatar 2 was capable of doing a billion from china, shouldnt a 1 billion potential grosser be strong enough to compete against spring festival works? 

 

1B US dollars alone from China? if so that's ridiculous "belief."

 

34 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

 

 

And ofc Spring Festival Works are stronger than Avatar 2. Please don't ever attempt to compare them.

 

yeah, since the second half of 2010s, local films began to take over the market, Hollywood films, no matter how big, are simply standard blockbusters. AEG, the cumulation, climax of Marvel cinematic serials, is a unique case post 2020, probably the highest a HLW can go, not the norm.  

[xieh tie]

 

[Clear Sky Master]

Boonie Bears: Guardian Code is sitting at approximately $109 million after 6 days. So far it’s outpacing Avatar 2 and looks to catch up with James Cameron’s juggernaut by 16 February at the latest. 

[peludo]

57 minutes ago, Clear Sky Master said:

Boonie Bears: Guardian Code is sitting at approximately $109 million after 6 days. So far it’s outpacing Avatar 2 and looks to catch up with James Cameron’s juggernaut by 16 February at the latest. 

I do not see it doing that. Maoyan is projecting 1.289b for Boonie Bears, which is nearly 400m less than A2's gross.

You should take into account that after the 7-day holiday period the daily grosses drop a lot for every film released along CNY.

[thajdikt]

Is covid still having a affect on the attendance? Thought Wandering Earth would do more to be honest

[Clear Sky Master]

1 hour ago, peludo said:

I do not see it doing that. Maoyan is projecting 1.289b for Boonie Bears, which is nearly 400m less than A2's gross.

You should take into account that after the 7-day holiday period the daily grosses drop a lot for every film released along CNY.

Maoyan predictions change constantly. Also, there likely won’t be a huge drop after CNY holiday week since a lot of people are starved for cinemas due to zero Covid restrictions which have been in place for three years. I suspect theatres in China remain busy until after Lantern Day.

 

So two weeks should be enough for Boonie Bears to outgross Avatar 2.

[xieh tie]

 

[Shanks]

Want to See

D-10

Black Panther: WF  - 199.9k

Black Panther 1 - 215k

 

D-20

AntMan - 84k

AntMan & Wasp - 211k

A&TW: Quantomania -  150k

Edited January 28, 2023 by Shanks

[Sophia Jane]

Hope the disappointed performence for TWE2 doesn’t destroy the environment of Sci-Fi in China… 

[peludo]

1 hour ago, Sophia Jane said:

Hope the disappointed performence for TWE2 doesn’t destroy the environment of Sci-Fi in China… 

It is maybe a bit disappointing, but it was targeting 3b yuan 3-4 days ago and today we could even see 4b. It is meh, but not a failure. And we must take into account that conditions have not been the best possible. Maybe without covid Full river red would be setting a new all time record.

Edited January 28, 2023 by peludo

[XXR vs XXR]

BPWF and AMQ WTS are encouraging, especially BPWF. Might get $100M from it after all. 

[Issac Newton]

2023 Spring Festival Box Office

 

¥6.76B / $1B (+11.9%)

 

2nd Best behind 2021 SF (¥7.84B) where Detective Chinatown 3 set highest daily boxoffice record & Hi Mom subsequent breakout, making it the highest grossing film directed by Female. Also since Valentine's Day falls on Day 3.

[Sophia Jane]

1 hour ago, peludo said:

It is maybe a bit disappointing, but it was targeting 3b yuan 3-4 days ago and today we could even see 4b. It is meh, but not a failure. And we must take into account that conditions have not been the best possible. Maybe without covid Full river red would be setting a new all time record.

You totally don’t understood,TWE2 need around 3.6B to get break-even…The offical of TWE2 now even started to selling the TWE’s franchise toy on Weibo to get break-even…

Edited January 28, 2023 by Sophia Jane

[Clear Sky Master]

47 minutes ago, Sophia Jane said:

You totally don’t understood,TWE2 need around 3.6B to get break-even…The offical of TWE2 now even started to selling the TWE’s franchise toy on Weibo to get break-even…

I highly doubt The Wandering Earth 2 cost over $500 million to make. Anyway, TWE3 has already been confirmed. 

[Clear Sky Master]

1 hour ago, XXR You Ok Annie said:

BPWF and AMQ WTS are encouraging, especially BPWF. Might get $100M from it after all. 

100M is being overly optimistic imo. $50 million is a realistic figure especially with the film coming to streaming sites on 1 February