ChD Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 I love fish....but I'm not even sure how she came up with shriekapoo.But it means Return of the King.I know what movie it is, but I never knew why you called it like that. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Founder / Operator Shawn Robbins Posted December 9, 2012 Founder / Operator Share Posted December 9, 2012 It's holding better than Casino Royale, so it does have a shot at 300M... Just do the math.Current gross: 261.2M.Next weekend: 45% percent drop (steeper than CR - Hobbit comes) - Means: 6.05M + Dailies (-40% = 4x 0.75(Average) = 3mil), so next week = 9.05M270M21st December - Here, vacation kicks in... Kids are free and stuff.Light drop maybe? -25% = 4.55M weekend + Dailies (-20% = 4x 0.50 (Average) = 2mil) = 5.05MChristmas: Increase 50%, leads to = 6.82M + Dailies (+100% = 4 x 1 = 4mil) = 10.82MCurrently, total stands at: 286.3MNew year's weekend: Increase 85%, leads to = 12.61M + Dailies (-50% = 4x 0.5= 2mil) = 14.6M300.9MThese numbers are based on Casino Royale drops and increases (Skyfall did better in increases, because, let's face, better Word of Mouth than Casino Royale had... Next week drop is steeper because of the Hobbit)Great breakdown.The one point where I do think Skyfall has a major question mark is the fact that it loses IMAX, so not only will it drop big against The Hobbit but those are grosses it won't ever get back.Still, $300m definitely looks attainable. I'd give it a 50/50 shot right now, but I won't be surprised if it finishes just under it like Inception did. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Plus a lot of the male audience right now is eating up Skyfall. Once LOTR IV comes out, that audience will be there. So Skyfall could be in for a bigger drop than normal this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChD Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 (edited) Plus a lot of the male audience right now is eating up Skyfall. Once LOTR IV comes out, that audience will be there. So Skyfall could be in for a bigger drop than normal this weekend.In some way, it matters what genre the movie is too. There are people out there who love action, gun fights, explosions and stuff, and people who love adventure.The Hobbit is missing the action part (Some people who did reviews stated that), so if people like action, they'll surely go to Skyfall, whilst people who love Adventure go to the Hobbit.That mean that The Hobbit won't really steal Skyfall's attendance away since they are two completely different genres, each movie missing the others genre. So, until most people are cinephils who watch every single movie, I think Skyfall is going to hold pretty well. Edited December 9, 2012 by ChD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Founder / Operator Shawn Robbins Posted December 9, 2012 Founder / Operator Share Posted December 9, 2012 In some way, it matters what genre the movie is too. There are people out there who love action, gun fights, explosions and stuff, and people who love adventure.The Hobbit is missing the action part (Some people who did reviews stated that), so if people like action, they'll surely go to Skyfall, whilst people who love Adventure go to the Hobbit.That mean that The Hobbit won't really steal Skyfall's attendance away since they are two completely different genres, each movie missing the others genre. So, until most people are cinephils who watch every single movie, I think Skyfall is going to hold pretty well.But keep in mind, the vast majority of audiences will go into The Hobbit with their own expectations and not having read any online reviews. Even, for argument's sake, if audiences feel there isn't enough action in the movie then we won't see that affect anything until after opening weekend.Beyond that, we're then talking about Jack Reacher coming into play (if it does). But Skyfall has done so well up to this point, I'm not sure Reacher can really hurt it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CJohn Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 The Hobbit will rape everything. Rape. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Yea, The Hobbit definitely crosses into Skyfall demos. So it will kill pretty much everything next weekend. Kids films, Chick flicks, everything....it really crosses into everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Founder / Operator Shawn Robbins Posted December 9, 2012 Founder / Operator Share Posted December 9, 2012 Guardians and Ralph in particular will really get hit. They suffer on two fronts: 3D screens and family audiences. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Yea, The Hobbit definitely crosses into Skyfall demos. So it will kill pretty much everything next weekend. Kids films, Chick flicks, everything....it really crosses into everything.So true. When I went to the LOTR marathon yesterday I was shocked myself at how diverse the audience was. I saw mother/daughters, buddy groups, girlfriend groups, 60 year olds, 10 year olds, and pretty much everything else. And no one group dominated. It was the total opposite of when I did the Avengers marathon and it was almost all guys under 40 and a lot of what you would call "comic geeks." LOTR really did hit every audience which is great for Hobbit's OW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 So true. When I went to the LOTR marathon yesterday I was shocked myself at how diverse the audience was. I saw mother/daughters, buddy groups, girlfriend groups, 60 year olds, 10 year olds, and pretty much everything else. And no one group dominated. It was the total opposite of when I did the Avengers marathon and it was almost all guys under 40 and a lot of what you would call "comic geeks." LOTR really did hit every audience which is great for Hobbit's OW. I guess you could say that LOTR is loved by The sportos, the motorheads, geeks, sluts, bloods, wastoids, dweebies, dickheads - they all adore the film. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
druv10 Posted December 9, 2012 Share Posted December 9, 2012 Strong weekend for holdovers. 300M alive for both BD2 and Skyfall. 100M for LOP and ROTG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ladyevenstar22 Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 So true. When I went to the LOTR marathon yesterday I was shocked myself at how diverse the audience was. I saw mother/daughters, buddy groups, girlfriend groups, 60 year olds, 10 year olds, and pretty much everything else. And no one group dominated. It was the total opposite of when I did the Avengers marathon and it was almost all guys under 40 and a lot of what you would call "comic geeks." LOTR really did hit every audience which is great for Hobbit's OW. you got to go to a LOTR marathon , i ammmm soooo jealous sighhhh so cool guess what i'm watching fellowship right now on french tv, without fail it plays every christmas holidays on different channels , galadriel just refused the ring , i love that scene! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoursTruly Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Not really understanding why Skyfall is so popular, but congrats for (probably) out-grossing Breaking Dawn Part 2, I guess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Michael Gary Scott Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Cause skyfall is a good movie that's why. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoursTruly Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Cause skyfall is a good movie that's why.Thank you for this brilliant elucidation. I can rest easy now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Accursed Arachnid!™ Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 (edited) Today, Skyfall #1 Sony grosser of all time WW.Tomorrow, Skyfall will pass TASM to become the fourth highest Sony grosser DOM, behind only the original Spider-Man trilogy. Edited December 10, 2012 by Accursed Arachnid!™ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jack Sparrow Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 (edited) Hobbit will take away a lot of audience and IMAX from Skyfall, even with good WOM I don't see Skyfall holding as well as Casino Royale next weekend. This weekend was a different story as there wasn't any competition whereas CR had Apocalypto so its hold still is mighty impressive. The big test for Skyfall is next weekend, it needs to avoid a 50% drop, if that happens then $300m should be easy and it might make some more otherwise it will need a push from Sony to get past that mark.Regardless at this point $300m is a lock for Skyfall.BD2 should reach that mark as well, it does not have anything major till Christmas, it should pass $277m by the time Guilt Trip opens. Even though Hobbit is a threat generally Twilight movies have had the same drops aside from "direct" competition. Edited December 10, 2012 by Jack Sparrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fake Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Great breakdown.The one point where I do think Skyfall has a major question mark is the fact that it loses IMAX, so not only will it drop big against The Hobbit but those are grosses it won't ever get back.Still, $300m definitely looks attainable. I'd give it a 50/50 shot right now, but I won't be surprised if it finishes just under it like Inception did.IMAX should be accounting for about 20% of the grosses right now. Assuming an IMAX ticket is twice as costlier as normal ticket and people who would have gone to IMAX still go to normal theaters, it will lose about 10% of its potential.With the new numbers, Skyfall may drop 50% this weekend, but still be on track. And that is the absolute high-end for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 End of Watch finished at 751K for the weekend.....much higher than originally mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
achooo Posted December 10, 2012 Share Posted December 10, 2012 Any weekend actuals yet ? What time do they normally start coming in ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
