Weekend #s Hobbit 84.7 ROG 7.4 Linc 7.2 Sky 7.0 Pi 5.4 BD2 5.2 pg 90

[fishstick]

Twilight is different. Also finales are different. ROTK would have easily opened with 100m+ if it had a 3-day release 10 years ago.I am not saying 100m is impossible...... it is possible.... for movies which have Must-See-ASAP-factor.TH1 doesn't qualify.

TH isn`t essintial viewing even for fans. LOTR was. TPM was. I don`t know why it is so hard to understand that TH was never TPM. The story of how Anakin became Vader was fandom obsession ever since the I am your father reveal. Nobody obsessed about TH. Cute,lovely book but do you discuss plot points with your kids or with other fans 20-30 years since you read the book? Nope.

[Fake]

after a crappy start, guardian is showing excellent legs. it should make 120M which is not bad considering its awful opening.

Yes.... after opening even 100m looked difficult but it has had some great drops since then.

[rockNrollaDIM]

Has Shawn weighed in? Mr. $130m... somebody must be serving him crow about now... Ray Subers?

[baumer]

Let this put to rest that LOTR is more popular than SW. TPM killed in in 99 after a 17 year hiatus. The Hobbit is going to well also, but the layoff has shown that it is not immune to a slump, even a tiny one.

[baumer]

Has Shawn weighed in? Mr. $130m... somebody must be serving him crow about now... Ray Subers?

Go back a couple of pages and read his 2012 preview. I posted the link. Again, not to centre him out, it's just interesting to look back on some of our predictions after the results are in.Just so no one thinks I'm centering anyone out, please don't think I am...just remember I'm the one who predicted The Hangover to make 16 mill total, TTT to do 264, Expendables 2 to do 150 and ASM to make under 200 mill. I'm not posting this to embarass anyone, just showing this for perspective:http://boxofficetheory.com/2012/01/30/2012-forecast-top-10/ Edited December 16, 2012 by baumer

[Elessar]

Twilight is different. Also finales are different. ROTK would have easily opened with 100m+ if it had a 3-day release 10 years ago.I am not saying 100m is impossible...... it is possible.... for movies which have Must-See-ASAP-factor.TH1 doesn't qualify.

Okay, that sounds different than "movies don't open to $100m".

[rockNrollaDIM]

Shawn Robbins ‏@BoxOfficeTheory

My final call: $130 million opening @filmnerdjamie @raysubers @edouglasww #thehobbit #fandangohobbit

Shawn Robbins ‏@BoxOfficeTheory

I'll make this interesting: if #TheHobbit opens < $100m, I won't predict any 2013 pre-summer releases. @filmnerdjamie @edouglasww @raysubers

Gitesh Pandya ‏@giteshpandya

Massive freefall for #Hobbit on SAT. Wknd possibly closer to low 80s. Official #s coming soon.

Gitesh Pandya ‏@giteshpandya

$84.8M debut for #Hobbit, biggest DEC opening wknd ever. 25% SAT drop. A CinemaScore, 49% 3D.

[rockNrollaDIM]

Go back a couple of pages and read his 2012 preview. I posted the link. Again, not to centre him out, it's just interesting to look back on some of our predictions after the results are in.Just so no one thinks I'm centering anyone out, please don't think I am...just remember I'm the one who predicted The Hangover to make 16 mill total, TTT to do 264, Expendables 2 to do 150 and ASM to make under 200 mill. I'm not posting this to embarass anyone, just showing this for perspective:http://boxofficetheo...orecast-top-10/

Heh, yeah, nothing against Shawn personally of course but I was following along his expectations for this via Twitter late last week and chuckling to myself about it. You win some, you lose some.

[GodIsCool]

LOL WOW.That's just downright bad for The Hobbit.

No. No, it's not. Stop being dense. I bet you were one of those clowns that said AVATAR was a flop after its opening weekend too.$85 million for any movie the week before Chistmas is not bad. THE HOBBIT will be fine.

[rockNrollaDIM]

Go back a couple of pages and read his 2012 preview. I posted the link. Again, not to centre him out, it's just interesting to look back on some of our predictions after the results are in.Just so no one thinks I'm centering anyone out, please don't think I am...just remember I'm the one who predicted The Hangover to make 16 mill total, TTT to do 264, Expendables 2 to do 150 and ASM to make under 200 mill. I'm not posting this to embarass anyone, just showing this for perspective:http://boxofficetheo...orecast-top-10/

Wow, I forgot about that too, but it's a good reminder of what the wild expectations have been for this. A prediction like that back then was not out of ordinary in the slightest, as you recall TH > THG thread which majority laughed at.

[Fake]

Has Shawn weighed in? Mr. $130m... somebody must be serving him crow about now... Ray Subers?

I remember Ray also got a lot of crap from some of the posters hers for this prediction:

1. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Dec. 14)

The Lord of the Rings franchise earned over $1 billion at the domestic box office between 2001 and 2003, and the conclusion (Return of the King) racked up 11 Academy Award wins. The series still has a lot of goodwill, which should carry over to The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey. Still, franchise reboots and prequels tend to fall a bit short of their predecessors, and the lower stakes and confusing adaptation strategy (One children's book in to three movies? Really?) will keep The Hobbit from matching Return of the King's $377 million. Forecast: $330 million"

[Alpha]

Quote from The Hollywood Reporter:

In more good news for New Line and MGM, which partnered on the film, The Hobbit earned an A CinemaScore domestically.

[seduh]

i was expecting more from the Hobbit, it's going to hit $300 but nothing more. Skyfall could outgross it!

[rockNrollaDIM]

I remember Ray also got a lot of crap from some of the posters hers for this prediction:

1. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Dec. 14)

The Lord of the Rings franchise earned over $1 billion at the domestic box office between 2001 and 2003, and the conclusion (Return of the King) racked up 11 Academy Award wins. The series still has a lot of goodwill, which should carry over to The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey. Still, franchise reboots and prequels tend to fall a bit short of their predecessors, and the lower stakes and confusing adaptation strategy (One children's book in to three movies? Really?) will keep The Hobbit from matching Return of the King's $377 million. Forecast: $330 million"

Could end up right on the money. Guess that's why he's editor of BOM!

[Olive]

Silver Linings Playbook $2,084,000 -4%

[rockNrollaDIM]

SLP has a non-drop, with no screen loss. Fuck yeah! Time-to-expand.

[rockNrollaDIM]

No. No, it's not. Stop being dense. I bet you were one of those clowns that said AVATAR was a flop after its opening weekend too.$85 million for any movie the week before Chistmas is not bad.THE HOBBIT will be fine.

Avatar also did not plummet its first Saturday/Sunday. I think we can now safely end any comparisons to Avatar, right?

[Poseidon]

after a crappy start, guardian is showing excellent legs. it should make 120M which is not bad considering its awful opening.

Depends if audiences see it as a christmas movie, "Arthur Christmas" and "A Christmas Carol" dropped like a rock after christmas, so even 100m aren't locked at the moment. Let's hope it's another "Tangled" over the holidays.But WTF @ SLP. What a horrible job by the studio. That movie could be past 30m right now. It's really time to expand. There was so much space the last two weekends, i just don't get it. Edited December 16, 2012 by Poseidon

[Fake]

Well... as of now BD2, Skyfall and TH1 all look set for 300m+.... good for all three franchises.

[GodIsCool]

Avatar also did not plummet its first Saturday/Sunday. I think we can now safely end any comparisons to Avatar, right?

I'm not saying THE HOBBIT will emulate AVATAR. Get that right.But saying any film with a $85 million opening the week before Christmas is "bad" is absurd.Also AVATAR did not have a massive in-built fanbase that drove demand on OD, which is why THE HOBBIT dropped significantly.The die-hard went to see the movie. Normal people are too busy in the run up to Christmas and will see it in the coming weeks. This is how the Christmas period works. Edited December 16, 2012 by GodIsCool