Weekend #s Hobbit 84.7 ROG 7.4 Linc 7.2 Sky 7.0 Pi 5.4 BD2 5.2 pg 90

[iceroll]

http://www.hollywood...yeing-82-402969

Box Office Report: 'The Hobbit' Eyeing $82 Million-Plus Domestic Opening

eter Jackson's 3D fantasy-adventure -- set 60 years before the events chronicled in The Lord of the Rings -- is pacing to debut in the $82 million to $90 million range, easily besting the $77.2 million opening of Will Smith's I Am Legend on the same weekend in 2007.

Box office observers, however, are cautioning that the elementary school shooting in Newton, Conn., that left 26 people dead, including 20 children, could dampen moviegoing among families. The killing rampage is a reminder of the mass theater shooting in Colorado last summer that left 12 dead and 58 others injured.

Well shit... that's awful. 250 is gone.

[fishstick]

With holidays who says $400m still won't be a walk in the park? Are we forgetting that it is easily possible for a movie to open sub $80m in December and still cross 400?

Happened 2 times and both times it was original movie not a sequel/prequel. So no sequelitis (aka tendency of later movies to drop harder than the original).

We need to see how WOM will be before anyone starts writing off 400, even if that disappointing $85m OW (not buying it) does happen.

We need to see Saturday first before we take "disappointing" $85 mio as the done deal. If it`s following LOTR pattern than Saturday will push it over.

[lab276]

Well shit... that's awful. 250 is gone.

Well it's not good, but $250m is definitely not gone.

[TylerDurden365]

It's 7 o' clock on the west coast. I will be pardoned if I choose to wait until like midnight PST to start considering gross projections to be legitimate. Not saying the numbers we have now are wrong per se, just saying I'm going to wait before coming down one way or the other. Guess it's the old schooler in me.

[Cmasterclay]

As someone who loved the LOTR and has read the Hobbit and is rooting for the Hobbit to succeed- the split into three movies really hurt the demand. For me, it dropped it from an opening day movie to an opening weekend one, as long as I get to see the Star Trek prologue. And I know it's the same for my mom, my brother, and one of my closest friends. If this had been two movies, it would have hit over 100 million. But the rush demand is not near as strong because of the split into three. That's my reasoning for why it's underperforming a bit.

[rb02]

For a comparision, Sherlock Holmes 2, another holiday period movie that, coincidentally enough, was called a "disaster" after it sported just under $40 OW, managed to hit a 4.5X muliplier for nearly 190 DOM. I had a lot of fun calling out the trolls who said that SH2 was a bomb, after the legs kicked in. Will trolls do the same on this occasion? If the Hobbit hits an OW of "only" 85, and ends up with 350, will the trolls eat the crow?

PS, the Hobbit could open with 50M this weekend, and the studio would be all but guaranteed to make money in the final analysis.

[lab276]

Also, if anyone cares, after this Friday, 2012 will be over 2011 in admissions.

[The Futurist]

[John Marston]

82-90m? So another ranger. Getting annoying

[The Futurist]

I see a 320-350 finish for Bombur.

[Elessar]

Yeah, it seems it kinda is overperforming DOM ...

It's not. It's in line with OS numbers.This is mimicking FOTR in totals ($850m). Although, i wouldn't be surprised if it misses $300m DOM. Its first Sunday might very well be bellow $20m. By the time holidays start it won't do that much per day. Edited December 15, 2012 by Elessar

[lab276]

I see a 320-350 finish for Bombur.

Low end of expectations, but expectations nonetheless.

[rb02]

Well, at the moment, "hit" is a debatable word. ;)As for my being a detractor with objectivity, I`m full of shit last two days to tell you the truth. Neo slapped me with a warning so I`m playing nicer and more objective than usual.

Good for Neo. He has helped you to return from the dark side. :)BTW, you will hate me for this, but I was absolutely stunned by Blanchete in this. I had never really viewed her as truly beautiful until today- not even in the first trilogy. She captured the look and essence of Galadriel with perfection.

[fishstick]

Sorry, i don't get your logic then, stating that "franchises tick like a clock" cause that's not what your explanation tells.

Franchises behave like a clock. But prequel to a trilogy is not a usual situation. It could continue franchise pattern or it could start behaving like a new one. It really depands on the overlap with first trilogy`s audience. I`m just insisting on it that TH is likely going to follow LOTR because of weak Friday which was typical for LOTR. LOTR always unmistakably recovered on Saturday. And by recovered I really mean recovered.

[riczhang]

Now's about the time for me to take a moment away from the forums before I have a meltdown.

[lab276]

It's not. It's in line with OS numbers.This is mimicking FOTR in totals. Although, i wouldn't be surprised if it misses $300m DOM. Its first Sunday might very well be bellow $20m. By the time holidays start it won't do that much per day.

It's not missing $300m.

[rb02]

No. Not at all. Not unless I hear that the budget was 500M to 600M per movie.

[MovieMan89]

http://www.hollywood...yeing-82-402969

Box Office Report: 'The Hobbit' Eyeing $82 Million-Plus Domestic Opening

Box office observers, however, are cautioning that the elementary school shooting in Newton, Conn., that left 26 people dead, including 20 children, could dampen moviegoing among families. The killing rampage is a reminder of the mass theater shooting in Colorado last summer that left 12 dead and 58 others injured.

The fact that no one here is bringing up the tragedy today as possibly hurting box office (which I'm glad people aren't) when that's all you heard about here with TDKR, just proves my point now that I got so mad about this past summer that most people here were using the Aurora tragedy to justify their crazy TDKR predictions not coming true. Shame on those people. Glad us Hobbit fans are above using tragedies to justify a movie not meeting our highest expectations. Edited December 15, 2012 by HobbitMan89

[blenderbus]

Big fat meh.

[Moviefanatic]

How is it doing OS? I thought this would be massive OS but so far I am not impressed with anything this movie has done