2013 Best Picture Thread

[Jake Gittes]

I would have assumed that The Social Network's loss would teach Oscar bloggers (and not just them, but everyone following the Oscar race) a damn good lesson, but apparently not. It doesn't matter if the movie is the greatest thing since sliced bread, you don't proclaim it an Oscar winner when it's still fucking September. Call it a frontrunner all you want, but it's not a winner until it actually is.

[DAR]

This year's Best Picture will be one that tells a story after the logo of the studio and production companies.

[Impact]

This year's Best Picture will be one that tells a story after the logo of the studio and production companies.

And has credits at the end.

[Impact]

BTW-Patton did not have the studio logo at the start of it.

[TLK]

Movies need an early start. Almost all of the BP winners of the past decade have had early starts (September , October). The truth of the matter is that Oscars voting and holiday have an almost complete overlap which prevents a lot of Oscar voters from seeing late releases. Theoretically, voters should watch all 20-30 legitimate contenders before voting. Practically, most voters have made up their minds weeks before their votes are due. 

[riczhang]

Movies need an early start. Almost all of the BP winners of the past decade have had early starts (September , October). The truth of the matter is that Oscars voting and holiday have an almost complete overlap which prevents a lot of Oscar voters from seeing late releases. Theoretically, voters should watch all 20-30 legitimate contenders before voting. Practically, most voters have made up their minds weeks before their votes are due. 

 

That's not strictly speaking true. There's a lot a lot of voters that vote last minute. 

[Michael Gary Scott]

Remember last year when Argo was the front runner than a month or so later saying it had no chance to win

[The Futurist]

Remember last year when Argo was the front runner than a month or so later saying it had no chance to win

 

An unexpected narrative that nobody could have predicted resurected Argo.

[Impact]

Munich was a frontrunner for a while. So was Gangs of New York. Those were both early frontrunners.

[4815162342]

Remember last year when Argo was the front runner than a month or so later saying it had no chance to win

Argo was not a frontrunner until its January miracle.

[Impact]

Argo was not a frontrunner until its January miracle.

Yes are people already forgetting Lincoln and Les Miserables?

[riczhang]

Argo was not a frontrunner until its January miracle.

 

This. everyone last year was predicting Lincoln or Les Mis. (Or at least the people that had any sense in them did. There were a few wackos on ADF and IMDB that thought differently, but Lincoln and Les Mis were the heavy frontunners)

[Impact]

I actually remember hearing that it was likely to only get nominated for screenplay and supporting actor.

[riczhang]

I actually remember hearing that it was likely to only get nominated for screenplay and supporting actor.

 

Was it that bad? I don't remember very clearly, but I remember that it was in the BP race. 

[Impact]

I remember people saying that.

[Sims]

Eh, Argo seemed like it was in fourth before nominations were announced, behind Lincoln, Les Mis, and ZDT. People thought it had a slight chance of winning, but that chance obviously seemed to dwindle to zero after the directing snub.

[Jake Gittes]

I actually remember hearing that it was likely to only get nominated for screenplay and supporting actor.

Someone actually thought Arkin was gonna get nominated? 

 

From what I remember Argo firmly entered the BP conversation right after its premiere, and its box office run only solidified that. It wasn't the frontrunner until January, but I think it was in the top 5 pretty much all along.

[Impact]

Actually I think Brian Cranston was the more popular choice at the time if I remember correctly.

[riczhang]

Eh, Argo seemed like it was in fourth before nominations were announced, behind Lincoln, Les Mis, and ZDT. People thought it had a slight chance of winning, but that chance obviously seemed to dwindle to zero after the directing snub.

 

I thought that by mid-December that Argo was basically dead. I remember talking about it with Baumer (I think) about it, and then gloating when Affleck got snubbed and its chances died in everyone's eyes, and then eating crow, lol, when it won. 

[4815162342]

I thought that by mid-December that Argo was basically dead. I remember talking about it with Baumer (I think) about it, and then gloating when Affleck got snubbed and its chances died in everyone's eyes, and then eating crow, lol, when it won. 

 

From what I remembered, Argo was given due notice when it came out, but the pundits didn't think there was enough meat to it to entice voters in Oscar season. Lincoln being a box office juggernaut with more weighty material, bigger pedigree, and nearly as good reviews seemed to relegate it. Then when SLP started making big waves and ZD30 made the critics orgasm, it was considered dead.

 

Then the January magic began to happen.