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Impact

2013 Best Picture Thread

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Philomena is a big Weinstein crowdpleaser. Those tend to happen pretty much by default. Frears might miss a BD nom if some unseen contenders (Scorsese, DOR) prove to be strong enough, but other than that I don't see it missing BP, Actress, or Screenplay. 

 

Basically this. I have Frears in second right not for BD actually. This is beginning to sound like Queen 2.0 in terms of Frears quality. It debuted with 78 on MC and is missing an absolute RAVE by THR which will push it into the 80s. That's "Universal" acclaim for a movie that everyone on IMDB and ADF had dismissed. 

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I think McQueen and Cuaron are as close to locked as they get (after last year's triple failure of Affleck, Bigelow and Hooper I'm hesitant to call anyone 100% locked), I'd give the #3 spot to the Coens, and the remaining two spots are between Scorsese, DOR, Frears, Howard and Greengrass.

 

If we see a Benh Zeitlin-like out-of-nowhere nominee this year, right now I'd place my bet on JC Chandor. And if Her really delivers - which it certainly could - I wouldn't be shocked to see Jonze get in at the last minute.

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I don't see it happening.

And Sims, I typed up a long response to your Philomena not happening post. But my computer crashed and I can't be bothered to type it. Basically:

12YAS No

Gravity No

American Hustle (IMO looks too gimmicky)

August Not happening unless it suddenly makes like 150 million.

Wolf on Wall Street No

What else is there?

 

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