peludo Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 13 minutes ago, ScareLol said: I will post today the Frozen pre-sales and what I've seen, they are so strong Same at Kinepolis Madrid. At the same level than TLK. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScareLol Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 I checked 3 theaters (2 of them Deluxe) and Frozen II has 90 shows for Friday across the three of them. One of them has a 10:15 AM show, unbelievable for a film that isn't Star Wars or Avengers 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 (edited) Presales 2 days to go (Kinepolis Madrid): Frozen 2: Total: 3,704 tickets (33 showtimes) Friday: 1,406 Saturday: 1,711 Sunday: 587 The Lion King: Total: 4,442 (82 showtimes) Thursday: 1,925 Friday: 1,163 Saturday: 879 Sunday: 475 I guess that tomorrow lots of showtimes more will be added. Hard to compare since TLK opened on Thursday. But for example, F2 has already matched Joker's OW presales (3,705 final presales). Right now, I am thinking in around €7m OW. Edited November 20, 2019 by peludo 5 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScareLol Posted November 20, 2019 Share Posted November 20, 2019 Pre-sales for Frozen on Friday with 27 shows (big numbers). The film has sold 609 tickets (D-1) and it's the fifth best for my theater with one day left. Joker is the second biggest wih 810 tickets, TLK with 668 (Thursday release) is the best comp with Aladdin. €7M OW are possible, let's see if it explodes on Saturday and Sunday Film Tickets OW Comp Toy Story 4 485 2.48M 3.11M Aladdin 379 4.76M 7.64M Maleficent: MoE 169 3M 10.81M 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScareLol Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 (edited) Frozen II Pre-sales for tomorrow at my theater (D-0): 804 tickets Film Tickets OW Comp Toy Story 4 485 2.48M 4.11M Aladdin 379 4.76M 10.09M Maleficent: MoE 169 3M 14.27M Third biggest pre-sale at my theater after EndGame and Joker (810 tickets, only 6 more than FII). Beats TLK on a Thursday release (+136 tickets), sold more than double of Aladdin (+425 tickets). This is going big so €7.25M OW is my prediction and It can go up if matinees on Saturday and Sunday smash Edited November 22, 2019 by ScareLol 1 3 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted November 22, 2019 Share Posted November 22, 2019 Final presales: Frozen: 5,630 tickets Friday: 2,154 Saturday: 2,587 Sunday: 889 TLK: 5,816 (4-day) Thursday: 2,452 Friday: 1,658 Saturday: 1,127 Sunday: 579 Hard to compare, but I agree with @ScareLol that over €7m is likely. I would not rule out 7.5-8 million. It is amazing, talking into account that first part opened to barely €3m. We have another monster in Spanish BO this year. 2 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScareLol Posted November 23, 2019 Share Posted November 23, 2019 (edited) Frozen II debuts at #1, Spanish films Adios and Intemperie overperform and debut at #3 and #9 Edited November 23, 2019 by ScareLol 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PKMLover Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Disney estimated $5.8M for OW of Frozen 2 in Spain.... Disney is underestimating??? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Claudio Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Frozen opening looks weak here with only $5.8M and the weird thing is the discrepancy between what @peludoand @ScareLol predicted at €7M and the actual OW. I wonder what caused that. Is it because presale heavy, bad WOM or others??? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Claudio Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 2 minutes ago, PKMLover said: Disney estimated $5.8M for OW of Frozen 2 in Spain.... Disney is underestimating??? I'm also wondering the same thing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny Max Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Just now, Claudio said: Frozen opening looks weak here with only $5.8M and the weird thing is the discrepancy between what @peludoand @ScareLol predicted at €7M and the actual OW. I wonder what caused that. Is it because presale heavy, bad WOM or others??? yeah .. was about to ask PS were actual on par with TLK but OW comes only $5.8 M .. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 1 hour ago, Claudio said: Frozen opening looks weak here with only $5.8M and the weird thing is the discrepancy between what @peludoand @ScareLol predicted at €7M and the actual OW. I wonder what caused that. Is it because presale heavy, bad WOM or others??? Yes, I have been wrong extraoplating the same results than TLK with similar presales. $5.8m means about €5.3m. even although with actuals it can increase, it is too far from €7m that we said. Heavy presales could be the main reason of my bad prediction. Critics are worse than for first part, but I think WOM can not be the reason. There is not any other external reason like weather to explain it. We overpredicted. That's all. With this opening we have to rule out the €30m target and be fine trying 24-25 (50% more in local currency and 25% in dollars than first part). That result would put Frozen 2 at the same level than Toy Story 3, Minions or Up (all with €24m), but behind Shrek 2 (€28m) which would remain to be the biggest animated film (if we exclude TLK 2019). 3 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Claudio Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 17 minutes ago, peludo said: Yes, I have been wrong extraoplating the same results than TLK with similar presales. $5.8m means about €5.3m. even although with actuals it can increase, it is too far from €7m that we said. Heavy presales could be the main reason of my bad prediction. Critics are worse than for first part, but I think WOM can not be the reason. There is not any other external reason like weather to explain it. We overpredicted. That's all. With this opening we have to rule out the €30m target and be fine trying 24-25 (50% more in local currency and 25% in dollars than first part). That result would put Frozen 2 at the same level than Toy Story 3, Minions or Up (all with €24m), but behind Shrek 2 (€28m) which would remain to be the biggest animated film (if we exclude TLK 2019). Ahhh I see.. Don’t worry too much. People make mistake sometimes and over predict something is common. Hmmm... why is this reminding me of someone in the Weekend thread 👀. Anyway , I’m just confused about the estimates cause it’s very rare to see both of the market’s expert agree on something but somehow the actual thing is pretty off. On top of that, usually ( if not all the time ) , all your estimates always accurate. Because of that , I almost believed that Disney gives wrong estimate before your clarification 😆. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScareLol Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 We overpredicted the film for sure, the best comp was TS4 at last but I used TLK. Sorry 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 25 minutes ago, Claudio said: Ahhh I see.. Don’t worry too much. People make mistake sometimes and over predict something is common. Hmmm... why is this reminding me of someone in the Weekend thread 👀. Anyway , I’m just confused about the estimates cause it’s very rare to see both of the market’s expert agree on something but somehow the actual thing is pretty off. On top of that, usually ( if not all the time ) , all your estimates always accurate. Because of that , I almost believed that Disney gives wrong estimate before your clarification 😆. Thank you I have started this year to track presales. so I do not have too many examples to compare. It is obvious that I have to learn a lot to try to give more accurate numbers. Sorry for creating unreal expectation. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
keysersoze123 Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 Dont worry folks. keep trying it. It makes this thread more interesting. For example Peludo predicted breakout of Joker well before release. So its ok to over predict at times. More the data better you will get. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScareLol Posted November 24, 2019 Share Posted November 24, 2019 (edited) I think I will start tracking more theaters (4-5 for example) to do a better job at predicting. A lot of movies don't have a lot of pre-sales and other ones have a lot so the tracking is a bit volatile at my theater. Expanding the tracking to 5 theaters instead of 1, I will have a lot more data to predict and see potential breakouts, flops easier. Frozen II was frontloaded at my theater according to pre-sales. It didn't work as a family film but as a superhero one with a bit of family flavour. Late night shows were pretty much empty (I thought Frozen II would have a better multi-generation appeal) and 4-8PM were full. Thanks for your understanding and sorry again for the overprediction Edited November 24, 2019 by ScareLol 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 €5.2m: provisional OW for Frozen 2. €1.7m for "Si yo fuera rico". Amazing hold (-19%) after the €2.1m OW. Another local hit. We will see where it can finish. €0.5m for Joker, which should outgross Endgame by next Sunday. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danhtruong5 Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 1 hour ago, peludo said: €5.2m: provisional OW for Frozen 2. €1.7m for "Si yo fuera rico". Amazing hold (-19%) after the €2.1m OW. Another local hit. We will see where it can finish. €0.5m for Joker, which should outgross Endgame by next Sunday. $5.8M OW...... can leg to $30M finish??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peludo Posted November 25, 2019 Share Posted November 25, 2019 4 minutes ago, danhtruong5 said: $5.8M OW...... can leg to $30M finish??? Yes, it has that chance. IMO, the target is €25m, what means about $27.5m. But if it is able to hold well and with so many holidays it could reach those $30m (€27m). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
