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Hiccup

CAYOM Part 2: Year 6 Predictions

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January 1-3:

fun. Some Nights: 7.5M/18.0M
Vague Genre Movie: 5.2M/12.5M

January 8-10:
Killer Computer: 5.0M/11.1M

January 15-18 (MLK weekend):
Army of Two: The 40th Day: 22.4M/26.3M/62.8M
Taylor Swift: Safe and Sound: 7.2M/8.4M/17.9M

January 22-24:

Left Behind: 14.6M/33.5M
Yolo: 14.4M/37.6M

January 29-31:
The Story of Daniel Rigger: 17.1M/47.2M

February 5-7:

Murder at the Superbowl: 

Unbalanced 1/2 Re-Release: 9.2M/11.4M


February 12-15 (President's Day weekend):
Pokemon: The Champion's Gift: 56.9M/64.7M/156.1M
Unbalanced 3: 45.0M/49.9M/98.7M

February 19-21:

Things Not Seen: 15.8M/44.3M

 

February 26-28:

Minotaur 3D: 5.4M/10.6M

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January Predictions

 

January 1-3

 

This weekend is especially for December holdovers (along with next weekend too), but the moviegoing audience spikes on New Year's. With that, Fun: Some Nights should be able to break $10 million. Vague Genre Movie is too niche to be considered a big player, and so it's only going for $3 million this weekend.

 

January 8-10

 

Unsurprisingly, this weekend has only one nationwide release. Surprisingly, its rated NC-17 and playing at only 1,000+ locations. Killer Computer should be in for a quiet opening of only $3-4 million, though if word-of-mouth is strong among horror fans it could have good legs afterwards.

 

January 15-17

 

MLK weekend is usually when the January box office starts to kick in, and this year looks no different. Army Of Two: The 40th Day will go up from its predecessor, to an opening of $27-30 million for the three day and $34 million for the four-day. Taylor Swift: Safe and Sound will attract her fans, so an opening of $10-13 million seems reasonable.

 

January 22-24

 

After a bustling MLK weekend, the box office should quiet down next weekend. YOLO seems like it could attract teenagers modestly, so a weekend of $12 million is likely. Left Behind isn't looking to break out, so expect only $7-9 million for this. Finally, Miracle at the Meadowlands is trying to tap into the Super Bowl season, and in it's limited opening it should make $3 million.

 

January 29-31

 

The final weekend of January comes a possible Oscar contender, and this is The Story Of Daniel Rigger. It's currently looking at a high-teens gross. to be more specific, $17-19 million. Miracle At The Meadowlands is expanding into just less than 600 locations (wide release), and should add $4-5 million to its tally.

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February 5-7

 

Super Bowl weekend is here, and based on the crop of nationwide releases, it looks like people will prefer to watch the game. The only real contender here is Miracle at the Meadowlands, which finally reaches wide release on Superbowl weekend. With the coming of the Super Bowl, this seems more timely than ever, and so a weekend of $15 million is the bare minimum. Unfortunately, it will proceed to crash afterwards, and so it should only finish it's run with above $40 million. Another football-related movie, Murder At The Superbowl, is trying to gain attention from horror fans, but most of them will prefer to stay home. Expect just over $13 million for this niche entry. Before Unbalanced 3 comes next week, horror fans will be treated to see Unbalanced 1 and Unbalanced 2 in theaters again. It's reminiscent of a Fathom event, which would've seemed more realistic. It's playing at over 2,000+ locations, but because this seems only like an attraction for die-hard Unbalanced fans, it should make only $4-6 million.

 

February 12-15 (President's Day weekend)

 

After a relatively quiet Super Bowl weekend, President's Day could be the highest grossing weekend of the first quarter. Pokemon 3 will attract family audiences, who seem neglected this time around, and should earn over $55-60 million this weekend. Unbalanced 3, the newest entry in the horror franchise, will once again gun for the CAYOM record books, though it should earn the same as Unbalanced 2, with $40-42 million on its first weekend.

 

February 19-21

 

After an exciting weekend usually comes a boring weekend. Things Not Seen is the only wide release, and Pokemon 3 will still be gathering family audiences. $10-12 million is what you should expect.

 

EDIT: Horror flick A Warning To The Curious was just scheduled for February 19. Although Unbalanced 3 will crash this weekend, it's hard to imagine this breaking out. $13-15 million seems likely.

 

February 26-28

 

Another horror movie will come into the foray, Minotaur 3D, but it will only make so much, with only $13 million. Love Song seems more likely to break out, and could attract date night audiences. Expect $18 million.

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March 4-6:

The Improper Exchange: 40.2M/120.6MIsolation: No Plot Released

March 11-13:The Enigma: 11.7M/26.9M

The Screwtape Letters: 20.5M/54.3M

 

March 18-20:Honey Boo-Boo Makes a Movie: 12.3M/26.0M

Uncharted: Drake's Fortune: 64.3M/180.1M

 

March 25-27:

Avatar: The Last Airbender – The Promise: 22.3M/77.0M

Senior Citizens: 13.3M/36.0M

April 1-3:

Bounty Hunters From Heaven: 18.0M/50.5ML.A. Noire: 34.4M/91.6MApril 8-10:

The Archivist: 15.0M/42.1MSilent Invasion 2: Revelation: 19.7M/46.3M

April 15-17:

No Surrender: 9.2M/24.4M

 

April 22-24:Chopping Mall: 19.8M/45.5MMy Little Pony: Friendship is Magic – The Return of Queen Chrysalis: 23.6M/81.2MApril 29-May 1:The Impact of Sir Roger the Alien 2: 35.2M/80.7M

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Top 10 Pre-Summer

 

1. Uncharted: Drakes Fortune: 180.1M

2. Pokemon: The Champion's Gift: 156.1M

3. An Improper Exchange: 120.6M

4. Unbalanced 3: 98.7M

5. L.A. Noire: 91.6M

6. My Little Pony: Friendship is Magic- The Return of Queen Chrysalis: 81.2M

7. The Impact of Sir Roger the Alien 2: 80.7M

8. Avatar: The Last Airbender- The Promise: 77.0M

9. The Army of Two: The 40th Day: 62.8M

10. The Screwtape Letters: 54.3M

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Two-fifths of Andrew's list is my films. :D Really interested in the MLP actuals, it will either be a nice sleeper hit, or all the bronies will pirate it, causing it to bomb. :P

There is zero family films in this first quarter of the year. MLP has a G rating and will be appealing to children.

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Top 10 Pre-Summer

 

1. Uncharted: Drakes Fortune: 180.1M

2. Pokemon: The Champion's Gift: 156.1M

3. An Improper Exchange: 120.6M

4. Unbalanced 3: 98.7M

5. L.A. Noire: 91.6M

6. My Little Pony: Friendship is Magic- The Return of Queen Chrysalis: 81.2M

7. The Impact of Sir Roger the Alien 2: 80.7M

8. Avatar: The Last Airbender- The Promise: 77.0M

9. The Army of Two: The 40th Day: 62.8M

10. The Screwtape Letters: 54.3M

 

I love this list. Guess why? :lol:

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March 4-6The Improper Exchange is set to be the ultimate date night choice, and should gross $38-40 million. Isolation should open below, with $26-29 million. Paddles: The Video Game Story, a documentary about the creation of Pong, is opening at 8 locations in NY/LA. It should make $300,000 this weekend.March 11-13Another good weekend is in store. The Enigma is up for a good start of $19-22 million, while The Screwtape Letters should make $16 million. Paddles expands to 52 locations, and will make $850,000.March 18-20This weekend brings Uncharted: Drake's Fourtune, a possible franchise starter. It's headed for about $54-56 million, and should hold well throughout Spring. Honey Boo Boo Makes A Movie seems like a wild card. It's got a popular child star headlining the movie, but its depiction of Mexican drug cartels should keep away a large portion of her fans. It's only headed for $8-10 million. Paddles' run starts to kick in this weekend, and it should make $2 million.March 25-27Avatar The Last Airbender - The Promise seems promising. It should make $24-27 million. Senior Citizens will be an interesting batch, and will make $15-17 million. Paddles finally reaches wide release, and will make $4-5 million.
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