Weekend Estimates (Identity Thief: $36.6M, Warm Bodies $11.5M, Side Effects: $10M)

[Taylor]

With Winter Storm Nemo starting to rage over the East Coast, these early numbers could change. Especially because more and more movie theaters are closing throughout the Northeast. The Designated Market Areas (DMAs) that are going to be impacted represent approximately 10% of the marketplace, with the NY DMA accounting for 7+%. But matinee trends with noon averages are showing very strong numbers for Universal frenemies comedy Identity Thief >(originally 3,141 theaters) with fantastic box office in the center of the country. But “it’s going to be very very hard to stick to these predictions,” a studio exec tells me. Right now the Melissa McCarthy-Jason Bateman comedy has the potential to gross $10+M for Friday for a $30+M weekend. That’s 1/3 better than Hollywood predicted even without the storm.

 

Also overperforming despite the storm is the Open Roads/Steven Soderbergh crime thriller Side Effects (originally 2,605 theaters) which at this time it still trending for a $3.5M-$4M opener today and $11M-$12M weekend. Paramount’s Top Gun reissue in 3D IMAX (267 locations) is showing decent results which could mean around $2M for the weekend  in support of the film’s Blu-ray debut later this month. And Warner Bros pushed up the print count to 1,405 for its Best Picture Oscar lead contender Argo in its 18th week.

 

http://www.deadline.com/2013/02/eastern-winter-storm-could-devastate-box-office-as-movie-theatre-chains-shut-down/

Edited February 10, 2013 by Taylor

[CJohn]

Well, Nikki was fast today

[JackO]

Wow! Will reserve judgments till alter though. 

[riczhang]

That's brilliant for Identity Thief, and Good for Bitter Pill. I'm seeing both this weekend. But, I highly doubt that the 30 million for Identity Thief is possible. Too high, and it's not even half-one yet. 

[fishstick]

Are these the earliest ver (and undoubtly most wrong)?

[lilmac]

According to Wiki,  Greater Boston is tenth in population among U.S. metropolitan statistical areas in the United States, home to over 4.6 million people as of the 2010 U.S. Census.  

 

You can pretty much count that region out due to the epic blizzard.  I believe NYC will be spared.  

[kitik]

I'm not sure I'd call $11 million for Side Effects "overperforming".

 

Obviously, its way early, and these numbers will change. But thank you to Nikki for an early conversation starter.

[RichWS]

I believe NYC will be spared.  

 

Probably getting a foot. Wouldn't be surprised at all if most theaters close early.

[rockNrollaDIM]

$30m?! So prob 20m. But still. Go McCarthy! I wanna see it.

[Jack Nevada]

Surprisingly good for Side Effects. The movie got great reviews too, isn't it like 89% at RT?

[rockNrollaDIM]

According to Wiki, Greater Boston is tenth in population among U.S. metropolitan statistical areas in the United States, home to over 4.6 million people as of the 2010 U.S. Census.

You can pretty much count that region out due to the epic blizzard. I believe NYC will be spared.

Damn right. Me and my friends were gonna see IT tonight but now we're holed in until tomorrow night at the earliest.

[Jim Shorts]

Wow! Will reserve judgments till alter though. 

if IT holds up, great 27m call on the Olympiad game!

[Dragon]

Get that money Side efffects. No Lie I predicted 8 mil weekend lol

[CJohn]

That OW sucks for Side Effects.

[Jack Nevada]

That OW sucks for Side Effects.

No it doesn't

 

*checks out the budget*

 

Yes it does.

[CJohn]

No it doesn't

 

*checks out the budget*

 

Yes it does.

What is the budget?

[CoolioD1]

What is the budget?

30m

[Jack Nevada]

30m

I thought Soderbergh doesn't do movies that cost 16M+ 

[Dragon]

I'l take it for side effects  I thought it was going to do worse than that.

[RichWS]

Directed by Seth Gordon, the Universal pic is looking to gross $10 million or more on Friday for a possible $30 million-plus weekend. The film marks McCarthy's first starring role since the breakout comedy hit Bridesmaids (likewise a Universal title), which opened to roughly $26 million.

 

 

Winter Storm Nemo in the Northeast is sure to impact grosses, particularly if New York City gets hit hard. Already, theaters in the Boston area are closing because of Nemo. Generally speaking, New York City alone makes up 8 percent of box office grosses, while Boston accounts for 2 percent.

 

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-report-melissa-mccarthys-419781