Jump to content

Jack Nevada

Perkele! Finland Box Office

Recommended Posts

Lmao at me for boldly(?) predicting 150k overall admissions for Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom😅 The movie suffered what can only be described as a precipitous drop: 59%. Ouch! From a normal FSS opening, that is a bad, bad drop, and there is absolutely no sugarcoating it. It remains to be seen how fast and to what extent JWFK could recover from this, but I'd say those 150k admissions are already dead. The next weekend would have been challenging no matter what (due to Midsummer festivities), so JWFK needed a good drop right from the get-go. Well, that didn't happen, so... JWFK will probably get over the 100k admissions line, but finish under 125k at the end of its run, which would be quite a hefty drop from JW1. The current admissions are at 64.5k.

 

Deadpool 2 held very well again, in fact leapfrogging Solo into 2nd place, with a 37.5% drop. Having said that, excitable as I sometimes am, I got overboard last weekend by saying DP2 could still have a chance at 200k admissions. Technically yes, but realistically not. Not without absolutely phenomenal (sub-20%) holds. So, DP2 will more likely finish in the 175-185k range at the end of its run. The current admissions are at 162.5k.

 

Solo dropped slightly harsher this time (and slipped to 3rd place): 49.5%. The current admissions are at 111.9k, and looks like the overall run will finish with well under 150k, an ignominious result for a Star Wars movie in Finland.

 

Infinity War dropped nicely: 37.6%. The current admissions are at 222.8k. The crawl towards 230k continues.

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites



A dead weekend, as was expected. Midsummer means that everyone is either at a summer cottage, a festival, or just otherwise partying with their friends/family. In fact, except for the biggest cities, cinemas were closed for the weekend, as there is just no point for small town exhibitors to screen movies to one or two patrons and zero walk-ups. Next weekend should see a bounce back, though, with most of the movies seeing increases of various magnitudes. Also, the current weather forecast for the weekend is pretty chilly, so, should that forecast come to fruition, that would boost the grosses further.

 

The new opener Hereditary perfectly illustrated the deadness of the Midsummer weekend: it was able to grab number two spot with a FSS figure of 2.2k admissions. While its total opening haul (it opened on June 20th) is a bit better, 6k, these are still awful figures. Quite simply, movies should not be released on a Midsummer week here. The size of the population seeing movies during this time is so small that even with a strong word of mouth, your movie will barely escape box office purgatory. And with mixed/negative WOM, your movie goes straight to the morgue. Let's hope Hereditary is "just" in the purgatory.

 

As for holdovers, this is such an abnormal weekend box office - wise that it doesn't make much sense to draw any conclusions from it (it isn't part of an overall pattern), so I'll just shortly put the drops (and boy, these drops on a normal weekend would be a full nuclear meltdown x infinity) and the current overall admissions for each movie:

 

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom. 65.9% drop. Overall admissions at 82.8k.

 

Solo. 57.2% drop. Overall admissions at 119.1k.

 

Deadpool 2. 65.2% drop. Overall admissions at 169.2k.

 

Infinity War. 58.7% drop. Overall admissions at 224.8k.

 

One bit of furry good news from the weekend is the leggy family film Supermarsu crossing 140k admissions. Should it be in the top 20 next weekend as well, it would then have over 5 full months of continuous top 20 positions. An incredible run.

 

Also, Coco reached a stellar 7x multiplier (7.02x to be exact), with overall admissions at 132.9k.

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

After the temporary dead zone of last weekend, we're back to normal operation again.

 

Ocean's 8 was the significant opener, and from a Wednesday-Sunday frame it posted 22 560 admissions. That's a respectable opening, as long as the film is not frontloaded. Speaking of which, in order for O8 to match the comp that makes the most sense, O13, which was a June opener (O11 & O12 were December releases), it would need the exact multiplier of 5.3875x. I'm pretty uncertain on that, so we probably need to brace for a lower overall total, maybe in the range of 80-100k.

 

And as expected, all of the holdovers bounced back.

 

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom increased a big 101.2% and crossed 100k admissions (with 100 287 to be exact).

 

Hereditary had an even bigger increase, 107.7%, with overall admissions now at 14.8k.

 

Deadpool 2 had a monstrous increase, 132.5%!! Wow. OK, 200k admissions still aren't likely to happen, but the distance to that will get shorter than I thought. The current admissions are at 176.7k.

 

Solo increased 97%. Overall admissions at 126.5k.

 

Infinity War increased almost as much as DP2, 129.4%! The overall admissions are at 226.9k.

 

In milestone news:

 

The local family film Supermarsu has now continuously been in the top 20 for over 5 full months (release date 26th January)! Remarkable in this day and age, even for a family film!

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites



Time to update after a long, long time.

 

The reason for the hiatus was pretty simple: the box office stats company (the only one that compiles box office stats here) kept a vacation for a week and a half after my last update, and provided no stats during that time. So, reporting drops and openers was impossible.

 

They returned to "duty" last weekend, but since the admissions figures were relatively lackluster, I didn't bother with reporting.

 

Now, this weekend is another matter, because Mamma Mia 2 brought some much-needed firepower to a stagnant period at the box office. Indeed, MM2 opened with a normal FSS frame (July 20th) and posted 53 389 admissions, second only to Infinity War this year in terms of FSS figures. In terms of overall openings, both Deadpool 2 and the aforementioned Infinity War are ahead of MM2 for the year, but they were 5-day openings.

 

I can't the find the exact opening figure for the original Mamma Mia, and media reports here only use vague wording in the comparison ("MM2 had slightly over double the original's opening"). However, what is known is the overall total admissions for MM1, and that was a monstrous 404 112. Slightly speculatively, if the opening admissions figure was slightly over 25k, then the multiplier was a ludicrous 16x(!!!).

 

Needless to say, MM2 will have its work cut out to even dream of a similar multiplier, if for no other reason then for the fact that we live in a very different box office world nowadays, with ever-shorter theatrical runs followed by quick and snappy releases to streaming of HD and now 4K quality. Although, perhaps the musical genre is among the best-equipped to fight the shortening theatrical release windows, being still somewhat unique and not that ubiquitous in terms of yearly releases. It retains an event status, and a collective experiential feel. It will be interesting to follow MM2's run here and everywhere else in the light of all this.

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Mamma Mia 2 dropped 50.1% from its opening weekend, and has accumulated 128 132 admissions so far. That's a bit steeper drop than I expected, but I guess fan rush for the opening weekend inflated it a lot. Since MM2 doesn't have much in the form of any competition for its target audience for a while, I'm hoping for very soft drops the next month.

 

Other than MM2, it's been and continues to be a very dull period at the box office. Several movies are chugging along fine, but are basically just waiting to hit a certain milestone in slow crawl mode. Perhaps the only highlight outside of MM2 has been Hotel Transylvania 3 which is having a surprisingly robust performance for a relatively mid-tier animated franchise. In fact, it is on its way to easily outgrossing the previous one (which finished with 88 538 admissions; HT3 opened on July 13th and has already accumulated 76 269 admissions, having posted 10 002 admissions this weekend). If it has especially strong late legs, it could even gross as much or more than the previous two combined (HT1: 34 380 + HT2: 88 538 = 122 918).

 

In poignant milestone news, the local family film Supermarsu finally fell out of the top 20, just missing out on 6 full months of continuous top 20 positions. Farewell, you wonderfully leggy box office furry. 🙂

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites



Mission: Impossible - Fallout was the big opener, and from a normal FSS frame it posted 27 642 admissions, a +5.7% improvement on Rogue Nation (26 165 admissions from a similar FSS opening). Rogue Nation finished its run with 109 426 admissions, meaning a multiplier of 4.18x. A similar multi would thus get Fallout to 115 544 admissions, which sounds like a reasonable projection. Since M:I is almost completely a general audiences - driven franchise, I don't expect frontloading to be a factor.

 

The Darkest Minds was the other opener, and it followed the pattern it has expressed everywhere else, i.e. it bombed. With an FSS frame of 2 733 admissions, TDM is one of the absolute worst openers of the year. I don't think anyone outside of a handful of people had even heard of TDM here, and since the movie looked like a bunch of X-Men knock-offs in a hokey, contrived YA setting, the movie's atrocious box office performance will not have come as a huge surprise.

 

Moving onto the holdovers:

 

I wished for great holds for Mamma Mia 2, and I was not disappointed. MM2 had an absolutely breathtaking hold, dropping only 9.2%!! The movie will zoom past 200k admissions later this week, and with no competition for its target audience in sight, I'm hoping for 300k admissions already some time this month.

 

Hotel Transylvania 3 is another stellar performer in the marketplace, and in fact it had even softer drop than MM2's already ultra-soft drop: 5.5%!! The movie will (no pun intended) sail past 100k admissions later this week.

 

Really, thank goodness for MM2 and HT3, as otherwise the box office landscape would be pretty bleak for exhibitors. Now, let's hope Fallout will join those two in the uppermost performance echelon. The August doldrums (and this year it already started July) can always use some effective anodyne, and this would-be trio of perfectly coexisting movies should carry exhibitors well enough to September.

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

BlacKkKlansman opened here on 10th August, and the result is a pretty big (for the type of movie it is) 21 803 admissions. Apparently this is the best ever weekend for a Spike Lee movie here, but truthfully, it's explained almost completely by the presence of Finnish actor Jasper Pääkkönen. This reminds me of Blade Runner 2049, where the presence of Finnish actress Krista Kosonen carried that movie's Finland box office to an overperformance relative to the world average. As for legs? I have no idea, none whatsoever. If we use the aforementioned "Finnish" movie as comparison, BR2049 received a 3.87x multi, but with the caveat it benefited from various holiday periods in October, November, and December. BKKK is in the August, September doldrums, and has for more divisive subject matter, so matching BR2049's legs would definitely be an achievement.

 

The holdovers are robust.

 

Mamma Mia 2 had a very soft drop again, only 17.1%. It is already the most watched movie for the year* with 236 615 admissions, and will get past 300k admissions by the end of August.

 

Mission: Impossible - Fallout also had a nice drop, 41.6%. The multiplier from the opening weekend is already 2.17x, so the weekdays have been very strong. As schools/studies begin, work vacations end, etc. I would expect the demand to shift more to weekends, which will also hopefully result in softer weekend-to-weekend drops.

 

Hotel Transylvania 3 had another absolutely terrific drop, only 16.2%. It is now locked to outgross HT1 and HT2 combined. Amazing performance.

 

*The top 3 for the year in admissions are:

 

Mamma Mia 2 (236 615)

Avengers: Infinity War (233 064)

Deadpool 2 (195 599)**

 

**DP2's mid and late legs have been very impressive, because at one point it looked like finishing quite a bit below 200k, but now it has a realistic chance of reaching that milestone.

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites



Well, well, well.

 

BlacKkKlansman sprang a major surprise, and increased from last weekend by 17.6%!! Apparently it's the first movie this year to debut at number one and increase the following weekend (and retain number one). The total admissions are 66 609 so far. Unless the movie falls off a cliff, 100k admissions are already locked.

 

Mamma Mia 2 had another stellar drop, only 19.3%. 300k admissions will be crossed quite soon, most likely before September begins.

 

Mission: Impossible - Fallout dropped a tiny bit better than last weekend with 39.3%. Crossing 100k admissions will probably happen in September, unless the film gets an absolute super hold the next weekend.

 

Hotel Transylvania 3 continues to be one of the absolute highlights and most delightful box office surprises of the year. It had another astounding drop, only 13.4%! It has now officially outgrossed the previous two installments combined with 123 950 admissions so far.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lots of moving parts now at the box office.

 

Let's begin with the new openers which were both notable for, er, "slightly" different reasons.

 

Ilosia aikoja, Mielensäpahoittaja (rough translation by me: Happy Times, The Grump), a sequel to the 2014 local dramedy and box office behemoth Mielensäpahoittaja (The Grump), opened with 50 789 admissions over an FSS frame. That's 54.2% bigger than the original opening (32 942 admissions, also from an FSS frame). In order for the sequel to match the original's mind-bending final total, 500 926 admissions, it needs a multiplier of 9.86x; interestingly, this new film has actually gotten better reviews from the press than the original, but whether it can match the original's crazy-hot word of mouth - which resulted in a 15.2x(!!!) multi - is of course up in the air. That'll be interesting to see.

 

There is bombing, then there is cratering with enough force to create a world-ending singularity. The Happytime Murders is somewhere beyond the latter. With 1 277 admissions from an FSS frame, THM is probably the worst opening performance I can remember for a movie meant for general audiences, with a decent theater count (46). To put that into perspective, Ocean's 8, which opened two months ago, posted 973 admissions this weekend from 13 theaters. Well, as consolation, at least the upcoming theater count drops will be epic.

 

Moving onto the holdovers:

 

BlacKkKlansman has already exceeded, you could say, even the most wildly optimistic predictions. The movie has already gone past 100k admissions (with 102 227 to be exact). And this weekend it only dropped 22.8%! Quite simply, this performance is off the charts. I was wondering whether it could possibly match Blade Runner 2049's multi (3.87x). Well, er, it's already 4.69x. 😅

 

Mamma Mia 2 held well again, although not quite as strongly as before, with a 29.2% drop, which means that it just missed out on the 300k admissions milestone. It'll have to await until the next weekend. 🙂

 

Mission: Impossible - Fallout had its best drop yet with 33.2%. Hopefully this pattern of slightly better drops continues as move into September. It is touch and go whether the 100k admissions milestone is crossed next weekend or not, but I'm thinking it'll more likely be the weekend after that.

 

Hotel Transylvania 3 held almost as well as last weekend with a 18.1% drop. 150k admissions are still feasible, although how much the upcoming Incredibles 2 opening will cut into its legs will be seen then.

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites



Very congested now at the box office with strong holdovers and a couple of openers.

 

Incredibles 2, the biggest of the openers, posted 55 985 admissions from an FSS frame. I can't find the original's opening, so can't comp that, but the overall admissions for the original were 164 516. So, I2 would only need a 2.94x multiplier to match it, thus making surpassing the original a done deal.

 

The Meg, the (no pun intended) smaller opener, didn't do that well. With 11 297 admissions from an FSS frame, it is almost an exact carbon copy of Tomb Raider's opening performance from earlier this year (11 635). The Meg has a better per-theater average than TR had, but nevertheless, I don't expect much from The Meg going forwards, or at least not much better than what TR did (under 50k overall admissions).

 

The holdovers:

 

Ilosia aikoja, Mielensäpahoittaja (Happy Times, The Grump) dropped 37.8% from its opening frame, and is already past 100k overall admissions. So far no extreme frontloading.

 

BlacKkKlansman had almost the exact same drop as last time, 22.9%. Should these very soft drops continue, then even 200k overall admissions could be on the cards, which would be a crazy performance for this kind of movie. Finland has to be one of the most impressive OS regions for this movie, relatively speaking.

 

Mamma Mia 2 "bounced back" (lol) from its somewhat "harsh" drop last weekend with a stunningly impressive 19.7% drop this weekend. It also went past the 300k admissions milestone (with 315 944 to be exact). There probably isn't enough firepower left to reach 400k, but this is still a very impressive retention considering MM1 was an absolute behemoth at the box office.

 

Mission: Impossible - Fallout had its most impressive drop so far, only 24.9%. Since there is no reason for it to somehow start performing worse now, getting past Rogue Nation is a done deal. Nice, nice. 100k admissions will be crossed next weekend.

 

Hotel Transylvania 3 suffered an understandably harsh drop, 55.9%, due to the Incredibles 2 opening. If it can recover from this, then 150k admissions could still happen, but only just about.

 

And finally, a special high(or low?)light:

 

The Happytime Murders, which opened last weekend with such cratering force as to create a world-ending singularity (and thus I am writing this from The Beyond 😛), still managed to drop an eye-watering 61.2%(!!) this weekend. What the hell. Even the most bombtastic bombs or the most fan rush - driven opening weekends this year weren't followed by an over sixty-one % drop. Seriously. This has to be some sort of serious hall of shame contending achievement. If I have the time, I could take a look at the second weekend drops for all noted openers this year. Wow is all I have to say.

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Only one significant opener, so let's get it out of the way.

 

The Nun opened with 24 765 admissions. Compared to similar-ish timed Conjuring franchise releases (between August and October), that's a huge improvement over Annabelle: Creation (12 640), and a gigantic improvement over Annabelle (6 686). All of these releases were over an FSS frame. AC received a 4.47x multi, and A 5.48x multi. If The Nun would be as proportionally shorter legs-wise compared to AC as AC was to A, then The Nun would receive a 3.65x multi. That would get it to 90 392 admissions, which doesn't sound too unreasonable of a projection. All speculative, of course, until we get the first actual weekend-to-weekend drop.

 

The holdovers:

 

Incredibles 2 dropped 40.7% from its opening weekend. I2 had pretty big previews, so that inflated the OW to an extent. It's still a good drop, and the drops should get better from hereon out. It's already at 104k admissions.

 

Ilosia aikoja, Mielensäpahoittaja (Happy Times, The Grump) dropped an excellent 20.1%. It probably won't cross 200k admissions the upcoming weekend, but the milestone will be very soon around the corner after that.

 

BlacKkKlansman had its "harshest" drop so far with 25.9%. On the cusp of surpassing 150k admissions (will happen the upcoming weekend).

 

Mamma Mia 2 dropped 25.3%. There should be enough in the tank to reach at least 350k admissions, but 400k is probably not feasible. Maybe the finish line is at 360-365k.

 

The Meg didn't show massive frontloadedness, but nothing spectacular either, by dropping 48.6% from its opening frame. Since the opening was so modest, the movie really needs (no pun intended) massively better holds if wants to have any sort of year-end box office relevance.

 

Mission: Impossible - Fallout (and hopefully I didn't jinx it with my last report, lol!) dropped a surprising 49.4%. I honestly did not see this drop coming... but I guess there is so much congestion now at the box office that some collateral damage was bound to happen to some film, and M:I-F was the unlucky one. Hopefully recovery will be swift, though, so that at least the minimum "acceptable" target for the movie, 4x multiplier and upending Rogue Nation, happens.

 

Hotel Transylvania 3 is another movie suffering (so to speak) in the marketplace, due to the presence of Incredibles 2. While HT3 dropped better this time with 38.9%, the last two weeks are a far cry from the spectacular holds the movie enjoyed before the arrival of I2. The prospect of 150k admissions is iffy at the moment, pending massive recovery in the coming weeks.

 

A milestone:

 

Ocean's 8 passed 80k admissions with 80 012 to be exact. That's the low end of blockbuster territory (which I put at 80-100k). A solid performance, but hopefully O9 (when/if it gets made) will do a bit better.

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites



A slightly delayed update due to being struck down with flu.

 

The Predator was the only big opener, but it didn't do well. With 9 021 admissions over an FSS frame, the movie's fate as insignificant even in terms of the local box office was sealed right away. The earlier Predator(s) movie from 2010 did 32 630 overall admissions here. Thus, for the newest movie, the multiplier required to reach that would be slightly under 3.62x. That multi shouldn't be too tall of an order for most modest openers, but who knows with The Predator. Anyway, the second weekend drop will be very interesting to see.

 

Onto the holdovers:

 

Incredibles 2 had a nice drop, 22.9%. Will get past 150k admissions the upcoming weekend. 200k admissions will probably be crossed in early October. Also, in October, it should get a pretty good boost from a week-long holiday most educational institutions have.

 

Ilosia aikoja, Mielensäpahoittaja (Happy Times, The Grump) dropped fantastically well, only 14.8%! It will officially overtake Deadpool 2 as the third most watched movie for the year this upcoming weekend. After that, overtaking Infinity War for the second most watched movie for the year will also happen (might be as soon as the last weekend of this month).

 

The Nun had, interestingly, a very good drop, only 31.6%! I wonder why this is? We've seen quite a bit of frontloading for the movie in most markets, but not here so far. Whatever the reason for the good hold, if the 3rd weekend drop is sweet as well, we might need to upgrade the total admissions target to over 100k. 😇

 

BlacKkKlansman had another amazing drop, a teeny 14.3%. The dream of 200k admissions is still alive, which is crazy for this kind of movie. While I do think the presence of a popular Finnish actor in the movie has been necessary for this run, I do not think it would have been sufficient if the movie itself sucked balls, if that makes sense.

 

Mamma Mia 2 is showing enormous vitality late into its run by increasing 2.5% from last weekend! Thus, 340k admissions were also broken. If the the movie gets some extra late legs, maybe even 370-375k could be possible. The multiplier from the opening weekend is already slightly over 6.38x. A 7x multiplier would be a lovely achievement considering how massive the opening was.

 

The Meg had a pretty decent drop at 40.7%.

 

Mission: Impossible - Fallout recovered tremendously from last weekend's harsher drop by dropping a mere 12% this weekend. That's a relief. I was worried the movie might start to slow down significantly, but this drop should calm some nerves. Rogue Nation will be passed at the end of September, roundabout.

 

Hotel Transylvania 3 recovered even better from its own recent harsh(er) drops by increasing a whopping 23.5%! 150k admissions' dream is thus still alive.

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Three new movies opened, but they really didn't do much of anything. A Simple Favor (6 199 admissions), Crazy Rich Asians (3 832 admissions), and Peppermint (2 223 admissions) are all non-starters at the box office.

 

Onto the holdovers:

 

Ilosia aikoja, Mielensäpahoittaja (Happy Times, The Grump) had an absolutely stupendous drop, only 10.5%! It is already the third most watched movie for the year*, and will usurp Infinity War for the 2nd place this upcoming weekend

 

Incredibles 2 dropped 27.6% this frame, It has now zoomed past the original Incredibles, and should get past 200k admissions sometime in early October.

 

The Nun dropped harsher this time, 45.4%. That means we have to calm a bit down on the projections, but I'll still have it on over/under 100k admissions.

 

BlacKkKlansman had another outrageously good drop, only 10.9%! This movie just keeps on astonishing. 200k admissions should happen now, though how much over that is still up in the air. Regardless, this movie is already one of the absolute best performances of this year (vis-à-vis expectations).

 

Mamma Mia 2 dropped, perhaps understandably due to an increase last time, slightly harsher this weekend, with 32.3%. Nevertheless, MM2 will get over 350k admissions this upcoming weekend. The finishing line is still approximately at over/under 370k, depending on the late-late-legs.

 

The Predator, despite its lowly opening, crashed and burned in its second weekend with a 58.2% drop. Even allowing for unrealistically good legs from hereon out, will finish under the 2010 Predators.

 

For the rest of the holdovers, I'll update on them once they cross a milestone, given that they are posting quite small weekend numbers now.

 

*The top 3 for the year in admissions are:

 

Mamma Mia 2 (348 878)

Avengers: Infinity War (~234k)

Ilosia aikoja, Mielensäpahoittaja (229 521)

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites



Johnny English Strikes Again, the only major opener, posted 39 027 admissions from an FSS frame. A good start. The Johnny English franchise has been something of a huge blockbuster series here: the first movie (from 2003) did 260 643 admissions, the second one (from 2011) 279 283 admissions. Let's see where the latest one will end at.

 

Holdovers:

 

Ilosia aikoja, Mielensäpahoittaja (Happy Times, The Grump) dropped slightly harsher this time, but nothing dramatic, with 24.4%. 300k admissions will be crossed sometime later this month.

 

Incredibles 2 had a very good drop, 23.3%. It should get past 200k admissions this coming weekend.

 

BlacKkKlansman is, once again, a highlight of the fall box office weekend, by dropping a mere 16.8%. Crossing 200k admissions won't quite happen this coming weekend unless it essentially stays flat, but the weekend after that should seal it. Just an amazing run. I think I'd already nominate it for the best box office performance of the year, considering expectations weren't even remotely near to what is has done.

 

The Nun had an almost carbon copy drop from last weekend, 44.8%. The second weekend drop promised a lot more in terms of legs, but the subsequent weekends have definitely disappointed. Sure, it hasn't crashed and burned, but it hasn't really taken to flight, either. 100k admissions could still happen, but the prospects are dimming with each lackluster drop.

 

Mamma Mia 2 dropped a bit harsher again with 35.5%. I wonder if the movie's late run is starting to sputter out somewhat. Not yet a panic at a possible late-run downward spiral, ha, but maybe finally the most demand having been burnt is showing up. Anyway, MM2 now has a mighty haul of 354 438 admissions.

 

The Predator's miserable run continued. It dropped even worse than last weekend, which is just ridiculous considering that was already an awful drop to begin with. The movie dropped an absolute (preda-?)mammoth 64.1%! Movies don't drop that much here unless they have truly venomous word of mouth. So, at least in terms of box office, this movie here is truly a (preda-)dog.

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites



Am late with the update. 😅

 

Venom opened with 28 737 admissions over an FSS frame. That's slightly better than what Black Panther opened with (26 238 admissions). BP had fantastic legs (final total 151 480 admissions). Matching BP's final admissions figure would be a fantastic achievement for Venom. We'll have to wait and see...

 

But the biggest overall opener of the weekend (because of its hefty previews) was a local biopic about the legendary local singer Olavi Virta (which is the name of the movie as well). The overall haul was 33 714 admissions. If you take away OV's previews, Venom was slightly ahead. But they are very neck to neck. Thus, it will be very interesting to see their respective 2nd weekend drops.

 

Onto the holdovers:

 

Johnny English Strikes Again had the epitome of an "alright" drop in its second weekend, 43.5%. Not much you can read into that, but at least the movie is not showing excessive frontloading.

 

Ilosia aikoja, Mielensäpahoittaja (Happy Times, The Grump) had more or less a xerox copy of its last weekend drop with 24.6%. 300k admissions will be crossed by the end of this month or slightly earlier.

 

Incredibles 2 just missed out on the 200k admissions milestone due to a slightly harsher drop of 37%. No panic, only a slight delay. 😊

 

BlacKkKlansman continued its already-legendary run with a 28.2% drop this time, again a very good drop considering two sizable openers and a generally combative box office landscape with various genres and offerings on play. It should get past 200k admissions this coming weekend, and thus, overtake Deadpool 2. That's absolutely mental. Yes, there are some special circumstances at play here (mainly a Finnish actor), but still, show me another market where BlacKkKlansman outgrossed Deadpool 2. 🤯

 

The Nun had a slightly better drop, 40.1%, but again, nothing all that stellar. 100k admissions will require a late crawl if they are to happen at all.

Edited by Marathon
A better selection of emoji
  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites



A few new openers (all of them over an FSS frame), but sadly the news is not good for any of them.

 

Smallfoot opened with 9 734 admissions, but with the caveat it was massively previews-heavy (2 392 admissions, so nearly one fourth of the total admissions!). This should mean a relatively harsh drop next weekend, unless there is some magical word of mouth kicking in right now.

 

Christopher Robin opened with 7 981 admissions. It was also a bit previews-heavy (1 364 admissions out of the total OW). The result would be sort of ok if CR had a low or even a modest theater count, but unfortunately CR had the second highest theater count (117) for the weekend. It thus remains to be seen whether exhibitors will have patience for the flick or will it start shedding theaters quickly. This week is crucial because it's a national, week-long holiday for all of the educational institutions, and thus all family fare should get a boost. CR is not trending all that high in the main ticketing service's top sellers list (currently 9th), so it'll need lots and lots of walkups.

 

First Man had a lousy opening with 6 304 admissions. It doesn't seem the kind of movie to get a rapturous word of mouth, so I'd expect a finish well below 60k admissions.

 

Bad Times At The El Royale predictably bombed, with a total of only 3 440 admissions.

 

The holdovers:

 

Venom dropped 41.1% from its opening weekend. That's a solid enough drop for now. We need to see the 3rd weekend drop as well, but the finish line is probably somewhere between 100-125k admissions.

 

Olavi Virta dropped a disappointing 55.2%. Granted, the share of previews in the OW was very big, but even if you compare to the "true" FSS weekend, you still only get a so-so drop of 44.6%. I'm going to assume the word of mouth is thus not all that. Next weekend drop just became even more interesting! It's either poor word of mouth or a momentary blip. 😶

 

Johnny English Strikes Again had a slightly better drop this time, 37.4%. It's almost at 100k admissions (which it will cross this coming weekend). But, unfortunately, because of the only solid (and not spectacular drops), the first two movies of the franchise are already completely out of reach, but maybe if JESA exhibits some firepower in the late stages, 150k admissions will be reached.

 

Incredibles 2 dropped a very harsh 54.2%, most likely due to all of the new family fare that opened in theaters this weekend. But, most importantly I2 crossed the 200k admissions milestone (201 893), and thus, everything after now is pretty much gravy. The finish line is probably at 215-220k.

 

BlackKkKlansman dropped 33.1% and frustratingly missed out on the 200k admissions milestone - with 199 802 so far, lol. 😋

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites



Two new openers (over an FSS frame), and both performed solidly.

 

Halloween posted 18 572 admissions, which is very good considering the 2007 version did 2 865 over its entire run here and the 2009 film went straight to video (no cinematic release). It could be the hype of key personnel returning (Curtis, Carpenter) to the franchise which explains this much better performance.

 

A Star Is Born posted 14 634 admissions. That's solid enough assuming the drops will be soft going forward. I have some hesitation about its longevity, if only because Bohemian Rhapsody will provide fierce competition already on November 2nd. If BR is well received, ASIB could take a big hit, at least temporarily.

 

Onto the holdovers:

 

Johnny English Strikes Again dropped only 9.5%, but this soft drop is explained almost completely by the massive boost the week-long holiday provided to family-friendly entertainment. I'd expect JESA to drop quite a bit harder next weekend.

 

Olavi Virta dropped better this time with 22.3%, but I'm hesitant to declare the coast clear, so to speak. While this eases the initial frontloading, this drop could have been aided by the holiday, even if the movie is not quite the absolute family-friendliest alternative.

 

Venom has gotten into a seemingly consistent groove. It dropped 38% this time - slightly better than last weekend. It also surpassed 80k admissions (80 853), which means it's in blockbuster territory. The finish line prediction is still the same as last time, but perhaps more towards the higher end (125k).

 

Smallfoot was another recipient of the holiday boost, increasing 2.7% from last weekend (previews included). I was worried such an enormously previews-heavy OW would cause the movie come down like a lead balloon the next weekend, but clearly I underestimated both the movie and (especially) the power of the holiday week. Certainly a very interesting performance for this movie so far!

 

Christopher Robin got an even bigger boost from the holiday, with a 10.2% increase from last weekend (previews included). Hopefully word of mouth can carry the movie these coming weeks now that the audience expanded rapidly for a moment.

 

In happy milestone news:

 

Ilosia aikoja, Mielensäpahoittaja (Happy Times, The Grump) crossed 300k admissions! BlacKkKlansman crossed 200k admissions!

 

And thus, the updated and expanded, top 5 most watched movies for the year (in admissions):

 

Mamma Mia 2 (365 203)

Ilosia aikoja, Mielensäpahoittaja (303 955)

Avengers: Infinity War (234 106)

Incredibles 2 (214 893)

BlacKkKlansman (205 679)

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites



Only one significant new opener, a local history pic called Oma maa, detailing the post-war years from 1945 to 1952 (Helsinki Olympics), posted 34 252 admissions over an FSS frame. The portion of previews of the total OW was somewhat heavy, a tad over 15%.

 

The holdovers:

 

Halloween, interestingly, did not show frontloading, dropping only 29.3%! That's fantastic and definitely, for me, an unexpectedly good drop.

 

A Star Is Born dropped only 15.9% from its opening weekend. Nice, but now the movie needs to show a bit of fortitude + robustness because Bohemian Rhapsody is opening this coming weekend.

 

Johnny English Strikes Again dropped harder this time after being boosted by the holiday previously. A 32.9% drop is still good, though, even if in the end JESA won't come close to the totals of the previous movies. If this was some random, non-franchise action comedy movie, JESA's numbers wouldn't be disappointing (at all), but as a franchise movie, when compared to the first two movies, the drop-off is quite dramatic. Why that is, I don't know. But, Finland can take some comfort from the fact that, adjusted for inflation, the OS grosses for this series have declined with each sequel. While Reborn did nominally better OS than the first one ($151.7m vs $132.5m), in adjusted dollars Reborn was about $10m short of the first one. And now, JESA might nominally go a bit above the first movie, but the adjusted figure ($181.8m) is hopelessly out of reach. Thankfully these movies exhibit good budget control, meaning, at least in theory they could keep on churning out these movies "forever".

 

Olavi Virta dropped 32.1% from last weekend. In and of itself solid, but it's kind of disheartening to see the movie already post a well under 10k admissions (7 965) weekend. A movie about a legendary singer now looks unlikely to break 200k admissions. If the worst comes to pass, it might not even pass 150k admissions! Somehow the movie is not connecting quite as it should.

 

Venom continued its very consistent ways with a 35.4% drop this time. It's touch and go whether the 100k admissions milestone will be crossed this coming weekend. If not, then the following weekend will do the job.

 

Smallfoot dropped 32.5% from last weekend. A somewhat harsher drop was expected after the previous, holiday-inflated frame. Bizarrely, Smallfoot now has the exact admissions figure of 44 444! I'm not making this up. 😆

 

Christopher Robin is having a tough time at the box office with a very harsh 49.4% drop this time. Even with a holiday-boosted last frame this drop is massively disappointing. Maybe the movie is too niche for mainstream audiences, even with the Disney branding behind it. Unless it gets some extraordinary late legs, CR will probably finish with slightly over 50k admissions.

  • Like 6
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites



Two new openers (both over an FSS frame).

 

Bohemian Rhapsody blew the roof off of the box office with a stunning opening weekend of 52 873 admissions. That's only slightly below Mamma Mia 2's OW. Whether BR will become a behemoth like MM2 remains to be seen, but the start is certainly encouraging.

 

The Nutcracker and the Four Realms, perhaps predictably, did poorly, with a measly haul of 6 327 admissions. Unless it develops some magic legs out of nowhere, the movie will be insignificant here in the terms of the box office.

 

The holdovers:

 

Oma maa, despite having a somewhat previews-heavy OW, had a fantastically good drop, only 22%! The word of mouth must be good, then. Let's see where this one will end. It could cross the 100k admissions milestone already next weekend (it currently has slightly under 85k).

 

A Star Is Born continues to perform fantastically well, as despite the presence of the predictably big Bohemian Rhapsody, it dropped only slightly more with 22.7%. So far the co-existence of ASIB and BR is going splendidly.

 

Halloween suffered a harsh 57.2% drop this time. Whether the movie is already starting to wind down (as moviegoers' focus turns to other movies) or not remains to be seen.

 

Olavi Virta doesn't seem like picking up late legs, or at least not yet. The drop, while a tiny bit worse than last weekend at 34.9%, is nevertheless in a very similar ballpark. It just not a particularly inspiring ballpark, especially after the very harsh 2nd weekend drop. Considering the subject matter of the movie (a legendary local singer), it definitely feels like an underperformance.

 

Smallfoot had a slightly better drop this time with 27.5%. It has crossed 50k admissions. The finish line is probably at over/under 80k.

 

Venom suffered a bit harsher drop this time with 44.4%. Perhaps, like Halloween, horror, or horror-influenced material (or just "darker") is starting to wind down now that October is over, Venom included. We'll see. At any rate, Venom will cross the 100k admissions milestone next weekend. ☺️

 

Johnny English Strikes Again suffered a very bad drop, 57.8%. Overall the movie's run here has a been disappointment (especially when comparing to the first two movies of the series), there are no two ways about it.

 

Christopher Robin did slightly better than last time, still rather uninspiringly with a 43.1% drop. The movie just not has connected with a wider audience here. The finish line is still at slightly over 50k admissions.

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites



Only one significant opener: The Grinch. It posted 23 458 admissions over a normal FSS frame. The performance is OK, I guess? Especially considering Dr. Seuss is mostly a North American phenomenon. Indeed, this relatively solid opening could be attributed as much to the Illumination brand as anything else.

 

The holdovers:

 

Bohemian Rhapsody is showing tremendous overall strength at the box office by dropping only 28.6% despite its massive opening weekend. The overall admissions are already 116 308!

 

Oma maa dropped slightly harsher this time, but still good at 34.4%. The overall admissions are now 120 508.

 

A Star Is Born is interestingly not showing any "ill effects" from Bohemian Rhapsody, again dropping only very softly at 28.8%. Having said that, they (ASIB & BR) are operating at different overall levels of performance, with BR looking to become one of the biggest movies of the year, while ASIB is looking to finish at over/under 100k overall admissions. Understandable, as ASIB is more of a North American thing. But, ASIB's performance here is still very good, all things considered.

 

For the rest I'm just going to report when they cross a milestone, as they aren't posting any particularly interesting weekend numbers anymore.

 

Speaking of which, Venom crossed the 100k admissions milestone (102 984). A success story here as well.

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites



Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.