Perkele! Finland Box Office

[Marathon]

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald was the only significant opener. Its 5-day haul of 64 018 admissions is down from FB1, which (from a similar 5-day opening) posted 73 128 admissions back in 2016. FB1 finished its run with 236 018 admissions. I don't expect CoG to reach those heights, as FB1 had a relatively barren November and December to help stretch its legs, not to mention the novelty factor and generally better reception.

 

The holdovers:

 

Bohemian Rhapsody had an even better drop than last time with 23.8%! Quite simply, this movie is (no pun intended) a beast, a fantastic beast. In fact, should BR drop roughly in the same ballpark as the last two weekends (somewhere between 20-30%), it could already cross 200k admissions this coming weekend! Absolutely bonkers!

 

The Grinch had a pretty stellar drop from its OW with 24.4%. The movie will cross 50k admissions this coming weekend.

 

Oma maa had almost a carbon copy drop from its last weekend, 33.2%. It will cross 150k admissions this coming weekend. It would be lovely to get this movie eventually into the 200k admissions club, but it is pretty much touch and go at this point, largely dependent on if the December holidays will give it a boost or if the congested box office landscape of said month will cause it to get lost in the mix, especially so late into its run.

 

A Star Is Born dropped even better than last time with 25.9%. It probably won't quite cross 80k admissions this coming weekend. but should do so the following. There probably isn't enough firepower left to reach 100k admissions, unless it does so in a truly super slow crawl. But this is still a good performance!

 

A milestone:

 

Johnny English Strikes Again crossed 150k admissions (151 201). Small victories and all that. 🙂 But, as I said, overall, a disappointment.

[Marathon]

No significant openers, so straight into the holdovers:

 

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald dropped 66.2% from its 5-day opening weekend (the drop from the FSS was 49.1%). It is right on the cusp of crossing 100k admissions (99 963). We need to see the 3rd weekend drop before we can narrow down the end total prediction, but I would imagine it'll settle somewhere between 175k and 200k.

 

Bohemian Rhapsody is not letting up, dropping 28.3% this time. It just missed out on 200k admissions, but will officially fly past that mark this coming weekend. It is also already locked to become the 3rd most watched movie for the year (currently held by Infinity War with 234 115 admissions) unless something truly and unexpectedly breaks out.

 

The Grinch dropped 37% this time. The movie is doing solid business but the run is really not a particularly inspiring one so far. The finish line is probably somewhere between 100k and 125k, perhaps more towards the latter if the Xmas period can provide a significant boost.

 

Oma maa dropped once again in a very consistent manner with 36.6%. Even softer drops would be welcome because currently it looks like the movie will miss out on 200k admissions. But, perhaps the December holidays will give it an extra life, who knows.

[Marathon]

Nothing much to report... other than Bohemian Rhapsody, it's a very dull period at the box office. 

 

The holdovers:

 

Bohemian Rhapsody continued its rip-roaring run, dropping a stunningly soft 19.8% this time. It has now rocketed past 200k admissions (222 964) and should overtake Infinity War (234 105 adm.) next weekend as the third most watched for the year. 🤯

 

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, interestingly, had actually a pretty great drop with 29.5%! Whether this drop was just a flash in the pan or a sign of legs to come remains to be seen. But this does give some confidence that the movie could achieve 200k admissions if it can survive the stacked Xmas schedule onslaught.

 

The Grinch must have heard my grumbles about its solid-if-unspectacular run so far and proceeded to drop an absolutely stunning 12.2%! Perhaps the proximity of Xmas is finally starting to inspire families to check out the movie. If these kind of drops continue, the prospect of 125k admissions looks good.

[Marathon]

Only one significant opener, Mortal Engines, which opened (over an FSS frame) with an okay 10 171 admissions, but honestly, the fact it even did this well (relatively speaking) is a testament to the name brand of Peter Jackson, and - a couple of holdovers notwithstanding - a very barren period at the box office.

 

The holdovers:

 

Bohemian Rhapsody. Ok, this run is absolutely crazy. Last weekend's drop was already incredible, but this time it was even better, with 13.1%!!! It's bonkers, it really is. And during the coming weekend BR will officially cross 250k admissions! If the December-January period gives an extra boost to already sensational legs, over 300k admissions will be a done deal, perhaps even comfortably so!

 

The Grinch has really staged a remarkable turnaround in form the last few weeks. At first TG looked like a solid but uninspiring box office run, but now it has clearly taken off. It managed to increase from last weekend by 2.4%! This coming weekend will see the movie cross 100k admissions, and with the holidays approaching, it should have enough to get to at least 125k overall admissions, maybe even 150k if all goes well.

 

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald dropped slightly worse than last time with 39.1%. The movie should cross 150k admissions this coming weekend. No excessive frontloading so far but nothing really all that exciting in terms of a box office run, either. 200k admissions aren't locked in yet.

[fabiopazzo2]

Nothing can stop BR 😎

Edited December 12, 2018 by fabiopazzo2

[Marathon]

Only one significant opener, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse. This Finland opening (over 3 days) is very much in line with the rest of the foreign markets' openings, which have ranged from meh to weak. With 6 365 admissions, ITSV is not a total bomb but neither is it - even with December legs - going to be of significance even at the level of Finnish box office. Many people have noted that animated films of already-established, well-known superheros tend to do weak business overseas, and this movie looks to be no exception.

 

The holdovers:

 

Bohemian Rhapsody, after the previous insane hold, understandably 'regressed to the mean' a bit (lol), with a 29.6% drop this time. But the cool/insane thing is, this movie still posted a weekend of over 10k admissions (10 152)! 300k admissions are looking good, as long as the movie doesn't start experiencing harsher drops than about thirty percent.

 

The Grinch is now in a good groove. Despite last weekend's hold being stupendous, it only dropped 19.6% this time. We'll see if the topicality (Xmas) of the movie will be to its legs' detriment after the holidays, but as of now TG is speeding on. It also crossed the 100k admissions threshold (102 842).

 

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald dropped almost the same as last time with 38.4%. These are ok drops that CoG is experiencing but they won't be anywhere near enough for CoG to reach 200k admissions. Unless the movie gets an absolutely extraordinary boost from the holidays, 200k admissions are already well dead. Even a wildly optimistic projection of constant 25% drops (when it hasn't even had one sub-25% drop yet) from hereon out sees the movie finish at about 185k admissions. A disappointing run, or at least disappointingly ho-hum.

 

Mortal Engines, despite its modest opening, showed some frontloading with a 2nd weekend drop of 51.5%. It is always a concern to me when a modest opener shows frontloading because then the question arises, is the word of mouth robust enough to carry the movie? So this is not an encouraging 2nd weekend for ME, but as always, we'll have to wait and see.

 

The upcoming weekend will be something of a wild card in terms of openers and holdovers because Xmas is at the beginning of next week; Christmas Eve (the primary Xmas celebration day) is not a moviegoing day at all in Finland, and even Christmas Day is usually very weak for movies. Business will pick up from Boxing Day onwards. Will people rush out to watch all of the movies they can this weekend, or will they postpone until after 25th December? So, in a very weird situation, one that I can't remember when it was previously, this coming weekend could be either inflated or deflated! It all depends on peoples' psychology (and whether they have done their Xmas shopping 😋).

[Marathon]

Last time I wondered whether we would have a deflated or an inflated pre-Christmas weekend, and the answer is clear: deflated. There were some harsh drops, and the big new opener was somewhat muted.

 

Aquaman was the only significant opener, and over a normal 3-day opening it posted 16 649 admissions. A good or even a fitting comp is hard to find because superhero movies haven't been released during December here.  Comparing to other recent DC movies, Justice League had a 5-day opening of 20 340 admissions, while Wonder Woman had a 3-day opening of 13 729 admissions. So, all of the recent DC movies have opened modestly within a relatively narrow band, suggesting that these movies are still very much general audiences-driven (no OW frontloading), but also that superhero movies without an event status/massive buzz are nothing extraordinary at the local box office. And even when an event status is attained (e.g. Infinity War), there seems to be a glass ceiling to their performances, which I have talked about in here: https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/8840-perkele-finland-box-office/?do=findComment&comment=3450887. No comic book/superhero movie has placed higher than 3rd in a yearly box office list, and (unadjusted) no movie has crossed €3m. If the likes of Nolan Batman, massively word of mouth driven Deadpool, or Infinity War couldn't break these barriers, it's hard to see anything else breaking them in the foreseeable future. Maybe Avengers: Endgame has a tiny chance, but that's it, I think.

 

The holdovers:

 

Bohemian Rhapsody suffered a very harsh drop of 54.3%. This drop can be attributed to the calendar configuration, as people clearly chose preparing for Xmas rather than going to the movies so there's no reason to panic. BR should bounce back this coming weekend.

 

The Grinch also suffered from the calendar configuration, dropping a whopping 51.6%. While the movie should bounce back the following weekend, it remains a mystery how robust the bounce-back will be due to the movie's topicality. We'll see then.

 

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald dropped 46.3%. The total admissions are 157 250 so far, and it's impossible to see a Christmas miracle for CoG wherein it bridges the gap to 200k admissions during and after the holidays. The movie is quite certain to finish under 180k admissions, which would be a significant drop from the original Fantastic Beasts (236 108).

 

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse dropped like a block of granite in its second weekend, an absolutely eye-watering 69%. While I have been keen to point out the effects of the calendar configuration, this is still a concerning drop because it might show the exhibitors have no confidence in the movie posting justifiable per screen averages from hereon out. I was hoping some word of mouth effect would boost the movie after its opening, but so far not so good. This coming weekend the movie will need to, if it can, increase massively lest the exhibitors' patience runs out completely.

 

Mortal Engines continued its very much not-immortal box office run with a drop that somehow "bested" ITSV's own eye-watering drop with a singularity-creating crash of 75%(!!!).  Mortal Engines' run so far has really put the front in frontloading; it seems the only audience for this movie has been Peter Jackson fans and quite no one else.

 

In happy milestone news:

 

A Star Is Born crossed 100k admissions (102 345)! Its late legs have been very, very impressive because at one point it did look like running out of fuel for 100k, but the longevity it has displayed has been a surprise, a nice one at that.

 

As I said earlier, this coming weekend should see movies that did well before Xmas bounce back (or drop softly in Aquaman's case). I'm hoping for flat holds or even increases for the holdovers. Mortal Engines is a lost cause already, but maybe there is some miniscule sliver of hope for ITSV (most likely not, but...). We'll see.

 

[Marathon]

Haven't updated in a long while. The main reason is I've been very busy on weekdays and thus not had the energy to compile reports. And truth be told, there really hasn't been anything particularly exciting to report about. While there have been a few local titles do well, nothing phenomenal and/or exciting has sprung up. It seems the situation is pretty much the same everywhere - the global box office is more or less asleep (except for The Wandering Earth in China), and hopefully something will wake it up soon, most likely Captain Marvel.

 

Anyway, the actual reason for this update: milestones!

 

A Star Is Born has had a tremendous run here, especially vis-à-vis expectations, and in terms of legs. The movie opened on 19 October 2018, yet is still going strong. It just passed 150k admissions (151 562). It has already racked up a 10.36x multiplier from its opening weekend. That's a massive expansion of the opening weekend audience, and thus speaks truly and well on how the movie won over audiences. 11x multi should happen, but 12x is probably a bridge too far... although, who knows with this movie? 😋

 

Bohemian Rhapsody is another movie that just doesn't seem to stop. It has now accumulated over 400k admissions (401 711) and is by far the most watched movie of 2018. It has racked up a 7.6x multiplier from its opening weekend - more than impressive considering the OW was huge in its own right. Some work still to do to reach 8x multi, but it should happen!

[Marathon]

Captain Marvel had a 5-day opening and posted 56 168 admissions. A good comp is hard to find because of the type of superhero movies released early spring (TWS, Deadpool, Logan...). I guess of the recent batch (released within the last 5 years) Black Panther would be the best comp, though BP had a normal FSS opening. BP posted an OW of 26 238 admissions back in February 2018. It also reached a pretty impressive multiplier, 5.77x. Naturally, CM, with its 5-day opening, will post a smaller multiple at the end of its run. Though I'm starting to think these Marvel movies, especially in the post-Infinity War landscape, might start to become frontloaded to a degree. Infinity War in itself was already disappointingly frontloaded, for the local market anyway. I guess the increasing brand awareness makes a bigger portion of the people already attuned to the opening weekend, thus leaving less people to carry the baton in subsequent weeks and weekends.

 

Anyway, unless CM ends up insanely frontloaded, it should get over 100k admissions. BP's end total, 151 480 admissions, require a (rounded up) 2.7x multiplier from CM's 5-day opening. Doable.

[Marathon]

Captain Marvel dropped 60.4% from its 5-day opening. The drop from the FSS was 39.1%. Will get past 100k admissions this coming weekend (current admissions are at 89 868). It should have a pretty clear pathway to at least match Black Panther's final admissions, and most likely go past it.

 

Other movies are chugging along just fine, but many/most of them are just  to hit a milestone...

[Marathon]

Finally something to report... 😛

 

Us opened over a normal FSS frame and posted 12 430 admissions. It's a very big improvement percentage-wise (94.5%) over Get Out which opened (with a similar FSS frame) back in May 2017 with 6 391 admissions. Get Out finished its run with 27 257 admissions, a 4.265x multiplier. A similar multi would give Us a final total of 53 014 admissions, which sounds about right (if not sky-high, but then again, this is a very domestic-skewing movie box office-wise), so let's go with that projection. Although how much Pet Sematary could hurt it early April remains to be seen.

 

Holdover business:

 

Captain Marvel dropped pretty solidly again, 41.2% from last weekend. It has accumulated 110 612 admissions so far. However, I don't want to put too lofty, or at least any loftier targets for CM to reach (I got a bit ahead of myself after last weekend) because its best comp, Black Panther, had very strong legs, so even matching BP's final total would be great. After its 3rd weekend BP had accumulated 91 858 admissions, less than a 19k difference despite CM having a 5-day opening, and actually BP posted a better 3rd weekend haul than CM now did (14 272 vs 13 082). Unless CM starts dropping softer, BP is going to close the total admissions gap in their respective runs quite soon, certainly sooner than I thought. But, perhaps the proximity of Endgame will give CM a late-legs boost. We'll see.

 

Milestones:

 

A Star Is Born is still going strong. It's almost at 180k admissions now, with 179 264 to be exact. However, the most impressive thing about ASIB? Legs. It has racked up a ridiculous 12.25x(!!) multi from its opening weekend already. Even 13x multi might still be possible... 🙊

 

Bohemian Rhapsody is very close to 450k(!) admissions now, with 441 787 to be exact. BR's multi is also pretty outrageous considering its huge OW: 8.36x!

[Marathon]

Dumbo opened very solidly. With 26 942 admissions (and no previews!) over an FSS frame, Dumbo has every chance to get over 100k admissions at the end of its run. A good comp is hard to find, though. A spring release, live-action remake, CGI animal(s) in prominent role? 😂 Let's go with The Jungle Book (2016), even though that was more of an adventure movie. TJB had a 5-day opening back in mid-April 2016 and posted 27 029 admissions, so Dumbo almost matched that despite a shorter opening. TJB finished its run with 94 162 admissions, a 3.484x multiplier from the 5-day opening. The multi from the FSS portion was 4.426x, a solid if not spectacular multi especially for a family-skewing film. So using roughly the same multi should get Dumbo to over/under 120k admissions. Again, a solid if not spectacular end result. Of course, things can still swing either which way, but using 120k as a goal at this point seems reasonable.

 

The holdovers:

 

Captain Marvel dropped in a very similar ballpark as the previous weekends, 38.8%. Overall admissions so far 124 499. Once again Black Panther narrowed the gap in their respective runs, the difference now only slightly under 17k admissions. Interesting to see how small the gap gets before, assumedly, CM will match BP's end total admissions.

 

Us dropped 37.9% from its opening weekend. Overall admissions 26 105 so far.

[fabiopazzo2]

https://www.finnkino.fi/news/Ajankohtaista/2019-04-05/5506/Avengers-Endgame-rikkoo-ennatyksia/

 

@Marathon

 

record?

[Marathon]

Yes, apparently it's a new 24h presale record, last held by The Last Jedi.

[Marathon]

An extremely late update on last weekend's box office action, and I'm exhausted after a busy week so this will be short 😛, but nevertheless:

 

Pet Sematary opened over a normal FSS frame and posted 15 664 admissions. An ok-ish start for this reboot, but it's not going to rip up trees as far as box office is concerned. A finish over 50k admissions should still happen.

 

Shazam! likewise opened over a normal FSS frame but didn't do that well. With 11 748 admissions it's one of the lowest superhero openers in recent years. Wonder Woman is not necessarily a good comp for a variety of reasons, but its opening (over an FSS frame) was in a pretty similar ballpark, with 13 729 admissions back in summer 2017. WW had a leggy run, though, and finished with a 5.44x multiplier. That would take Shazam! to 63 909 admissions. I honestly don't know where it will land, but unless word of mouth is toxic it should still get over 50k admissions.

 

Holdovers:

 

Dumbo enjoyed a solid drop from its opening weekend, 43.5%. It has 50 360 admissions so far in its trunk.

 

Captain Marvel had its worst weekend-to-weekend drop so far with 43.5%. No sign of Endgame boost just yet. And once again Black Panther gained on CM in their respective runs. CM's total admissions are now 132 260, and BP is only 12.6k short of it.

 

Us suffered a harsh 58.4% drop from last weekend, but the biggest explanation is probably the opening of Pet Sematary. Us should drop softer this weekend. Total admissions 32 367 so far.

 

Milestones:

 

Bohemian Rhapsody continued its ridiculous run and crossed 450k admissions, with 450 047 to be exact. The multiplier from the opening weekend is now 8.51x, which is pretty nuts considering the OW was big in its own right.

 

A Star Is Born is also still going strong. It is looking to go over 190k admissions soon, even if 200k might be a bridge too far (perhaps?). The total admissions so far are 186 370. The multiplier from the OW is now 12.74x. A 13x multi should happen.

[Marathon]

A very late update again. Last weekend was a bit deflated, especially Sunday, due to the parliamentary elections and the women's national ice hockey team playing in the World Championships final.

 

After opened with a meh instead of a bang. 8 817 admissions over an FSS frame. Too tired and lazy to find any suitable comps, especially when this start means year-end irrelevance even at the local box office level (unless it goes absolutely nuclear next weekend, lmao).

 

Hellboy didn't so much bomb as crater through the earth. It posted 475 admissions over an FSS frame. It was playing in 36 theaters, meaning slightly over 13 people per theater saw the movie over the whole weekend. Meaning, approx. 4.4 people per day per theater. So, I, theoretically, could have been a personal chauffeur for all these people as my Citroën fits 5 persons.

 

Holdovers:

 

Pet Sematary held surprisingly well - I thought it would be a frontloaded affair - dropping 41.6% in its second weekend. 31 094 admissions so far.

 

Dumbo held OK again with a 45.7% drop. Nothing spectacular in the legs department so far, but ambling around solidly (wrong animal reference, yes I know, haha). 63 820 admissions so far.

 

Shazam! could have done with a better drop, but it has to contend with a 50.3% drop from its opening weekend. Definitely a disappointing 2nd weekend drop, especially when the opening wasn't that sizable. 21 998 admissions so far.

 

Maybe the vaunted Endgame Boost(tm) has now begun for Captain Marvel in earnest as it dropped the softest amount so far, 30.3%. 137 414 admissions in the bag now. Due to this drop, CM didn't lose as much ground to BP as it had previously, but still, the gap narrowed again, and is now only 9 302 admissions. Goes to show how impressive BP's run was here, as it started from a much lower base than CM.

 

Us dropped 39.6% from last weekend. 35 683 admissions so far.

[TalismanRing]

On 4/18/2019 at 7:40 PM, Marathon said:

Hellboy didn't so much bomb as crater through the earth. It posted 475 admissions over an FSS frame. It was playing in 36 theaters, meaning slightly over 13 people per theater saw the movie over the whole weekend. Meaning, approx. 4.4 people per day per theater. So, I, theoretically, could have been a personal chauffeur for all these people as my Citroën fits 5 persons.

[Marathon]

This update is reserved for one movie only...

 

Avengers: Endgame opened over a 5-day frame and posted a mind-boggling 148 013 admissions! To give some perspective to that, it's only slightly less than what Black Panther did over the entirety of its run (151 480 admissions).

 

Comping to Infinity War, which opened (with 95 542 admissions) over a similar 5-day frame, Endgame showed a 54.9% improvement! That's definitely more than I expected, considering that IW itself improved massively compared to the previous Avengers movies.

 

Infinity War, however, "paid the price" for such a massive improvement back in 2018 vis-à-vis previous Avengers movies, and finished with, dare I say, a weak multiplier (for the market) of 2.45x from the 5-day opening. Were Endgame to "suffer" from the same low multiplier, it would finish its run with 362 632 admissions, still a record for a superhero/comic book movie. We cannot count out the possibility of it ending up even more frontloaded than IW, but even then, I'd bet on it to comfortably cross 300k admissions. And of course there is the (slightly less probable) scenario that Endgame actually becomes leggier than IW. We'll just have to wait and see how the run develops.

[Marathon]

The mandatory Avengers: Endgame report first. In its second weekend, EG dropped 66% from the 5-day opening, and 46.5% from the FSS portion. Tell you what, I don't think the drop is bad at all considering how massive the opening was, and actually the drop from the FSS was better than Infinity War's, which dropped 52.9% back in 2018. The admissions haul is already 240 170. The upcoming, 3rd weekend drop will be very interesting to see. Will it start to taper off due to possibly burnt demand, or just keep on going?

 

In other news, Tolkien was the only significant opener and posted 23 661 admissions from a normal FSS opening. It's an alright start, but I wonder if exhibitors expected a bit more, considering it was booked into 123 theaters, the most during the weekend (even more than Endgame which had 105 theaters). Hopefully it can still leg it out.

 

Milestones:

 

Green Book surpassed 100k admissions with 104 066. Very nice run for this movie here (and in general overseas).

 

Bohemian Rhapsody is still going. The multiplier is now 8.66x. With 457 883 admissions in the bag, 460k could still happen, but maybe not much more.

 

A Star Is Born is still going. It has reached a stupendous 13.2x multiplier. The admissions haul is so close to 200k now, with 192 912. Will be touch and go if it can reach it.

[Nakamura]

1 hour ago, Marathon said:

The mandatory Avengers: Endgame report first. In its second weekend, EG dropped 66% from the 5-day opening, and 46.5% from the FSS portion. Tell you what, I don't think the drop is bad at all considering how massive the opening was, and actually the drop from the FSS was better than Infinity War's, which dropped 52.9% back in 2018. The admissions haul is already 240 170. The upcoming, 3rd weekend drop will be very interesting to see. Will it start to taper off due to possibly burnt demand, or just keep on going?

 

In other news, Tolkien was the only significant opener and posted 23 661 admissions from a normal FSS opening. It's an alright start, but I wonder if exhibitors expected a bit more, considering it was booked into 123 theaters, the most during the weekend (even more than Endgame which had 105 theaters). Hopefully it can still leg it out.

 

Milestones:

 

Green Book surpassed 100k admissions with 104 066. Very nice run for this movie here (and in general overseas).

 

Bohemian Rhapsody is still going. The multiplier is now 8.66x. With 457 883 admissions in the bag, 460k could still happen, but maybe not much more.

 

A Star Is Born is still going. It has reached a stupendous 13.2x multiplier. The admissions haul is so close to 200k now, with 192 912. Will be touch and go if it can reach it.

How much in USD EG has now? Prediction for the weekend?