Perkele! Finland Box Office

[manny1234]

@Marathon What is the average ticket price in Finland because I noticed that with the admission numbers in USD for instance the numbers are higher so I'm guessing going to the movies in Finland is very expensive.

[Marathon]

4 minutes ago, manny1234 said:

@Marathon What is the average ticket price in Finland because I noticed that with the admission numbers in USD for instance the numbers are higher so I'm guessing going to the movies in Finland is very expensive.

I live in a small town and my local cinema generally has cheaper tickets than the country average: €10 for most movies, sometimes up to €12,50 if there is sufficient demand.

 

In big cities the cheapest tickets are usually €12,50 or €12. But if it's a big blockbuster (or a breakout movie with huge demand) the price could go up to €14,50. I think anything beyond that is a premium format/luxury seat/etc ticket.

[Marathon]

A very quiet weekend. I'm guessing the winter - and the copious amounts of snow - that has lasted far longer than usual is encouraging people to go alpine and cross-country skiing, snowboarding, skating, etc. rather than to the movies.

 

Anyway, Aardman's Early Man opened and went to number one with 7.4k admissions. A poor figure for sure. It could be that unless there is a connection to Wallace & Gromit or that it is a Wallace & Gromit film, an Aardman flick won't set the box office on fire here. Shaun the Sheep did sort of ok, grossing about €0,75m, but other than that, Aardman films in the 2010s haven't done much of anything here, and looks like Early Man will continue that streak.

 

Tomb Raider dropped 41.2% to number three. Out of context that is a solid drop, but since it opened (very) modestly, any joy over that is understandably rather subdued. The overall admissions are at 21.6k.

 

Pacific Rim: Uprising bombed. The opening performance was a pathetic 6.1k admissions. That's under Tomb Raider's second weekend (6.2k admissions), a movie that, lest we forget, in and of itself is hardly setting the box office on fire here. The local reviews for PRU have been mostly scathing, with one quote in particular leaving me in stitches (translation by me):

"The only way to enjoy the Pacific Rim sequel is to use 2 percent of the brain - the rest 98 must be filled with popcorn." 

 

Black Panther dropped a great 25.8% to 5th place. The overall admissions are at 128.1k. Getting to 150k admissions would be a nice milestone, but it will require a clear overperformance in these late-run stages.

 

Coco suffered a rather harsh 45.3% drop to 7th place. Because its overall run has been so, so weird thus far, I'm not going to write off its late legs just yet, but nevertheless, this is still a disappointing drop because it looked like it had finally found some degree of stability after all the initial madness. Oh, well.

[manny1234]

 

12 minutes ago, Marathon said:

Black Panther dropped a great 25.8% to 5th place. The overall admissions are at 128.1k. Getting to 150k admissions would be a nice milestone, but it will require a clear overperformance in these late-run stages.

 

 

I am a huge CBM fan especially Marvel But I have to say congrats to Black Panther for beating GOTG 2 from last year to as for now being the most popular CBM this year in Finland until Infinity War and Deadpool 2 will duel out for the most popular CBM this year in Finland.

Edited March 26, 2018 by manny1234

[Marathon]

Two new openers: Ready Player One and Peter Rabbit. They were number one and two, respectively.

 

RPO had a staggeringly long opening, from 28th March 'til yesterday. The haul is 25.3k admissions, which is good, I think, especially considering that the IP probably isn't all that known here.

 

Peter Rabbit, however, was more impressive of the openers as it opened two days later, on 30th March, yet almost immediately caught up to RPO in terms of admissions: 24.5k.

 

Aardman's Early Man dropped 32.3% to number four. The drop would be solid IF the film had opened better, but since the opening was so lousy, Early Man's run here won't be much to write home about.

 

Tomb Raider had a very good drop, 33.6%. Unfortunately, these solid drops are scant consolation due to the underwhelming opening performance. The overall target admissions for TR will probably be 50-55k, which is still well off from a "typical", solid blockbuster performance (80-100k).

 

Black Panther had another stellar drop, 26.1%. The overall admissions are at 135.4k. That means the multiplier from the opening weekend is already 5.16x! 150k admissions could still be reachable.

 

Coco's bugnuts run continued. This time it dropped a mere 17.3%! I haven't got the slightest idea why Coco's run has been and continues to be so god damn bizarre, but it's never been boring, that's for sure! The overall admissions are at 114k. I think there's enough in Coco's bizarro box office tank for at least 125k admissions.

 

And finally, Pacific Rim: Uprising, which opened the week before with an abysmal 6.1k admissions, still managed to tank 58.9%(!) in its second weekend. Considering that the Finnish box office is mostly walk-up based and generally backloaded, dropping nearly 60% weekend-to-weekend is absolutely god-awful, like almost unspeakably god-awful. It's an epic bomb here for sure, and I would imagine exhibitors will be dropping it from their schedules ASAP.

[Marathon]

Nothing of interest in terms of newcomers, so all focus on holdover business.

 

Peter Rabbit dropped a very nice 30.8% to grab number one spot. Overall admissions at 39.3k.

 

Ready Player One fell to number two with a 37.4% drop. Slightly harsher drop than Peter Rabbit, but RPO had an extra-long opening which probably burnt up more demand as a consequence. The next weekend drop will be more interesting to see and more telling of its long-term prospects. Overall admissions at 40.3k.

 

Black Panther is not showing any late-run fatigue whatsoever. On the contrary, BP seems to be going as strong as ever. Once again, BP dropped only very softly: 27%. With these type of legs, 150k admissions is still a possibility, but even if BP misses that potential milestone, it won't be by much. Overall admissions at 139.4k.

 

Coco also had a splendid drop, only 25.9%. The overall admissions are now at 117.1k. The target overall admissions is still 125k. Doable, if no harsh drops the next few weeks.

 

Without wanting to pile on poor old Pacific Rim: Uprising, it must be highlighted that the film didn't even make the top 20 admissions list for the weekend.  This is absolutely extraordinary. I can't even remember the last time a would-be, big-budget action blockbuster dropped out of the top 20 in its 3rd(!!!) weekend. Considering that the 20th film on the list posted 1.2k admissions, it is possible PRU made less than 1k, but certainly less than 1.2k admissions. I can't get accurate statistics of PRU's drop and admissions because only the top 20 for a given weekend are freely available. I'd probably get more extensive info via a paid service, but I'm not going to do that; sorry, PRU. 

[Marathon]

Two new openers: A Quiet Place and Rampage.

 

A Quiet Place went to number one with 10.7k admissions. Not a particularly strong opening, but hopefully it will leg it out.

 

Rampage had an absolutely miserable opening. How miserable, you ask? Opening at fourth, it posted less admissions (slightly under 5.7k) than the 3rd weekends of Peter Rabbit (6.1k) and Ready Player One (slightly over 5.7k)! Even if the word of mouth is better than it was for Pacific Rim: Uprising (which had a similarly catastrophic opening), Rampage faces an almost hopeless task at the local box office. It would need to increase or at least stay flat the next weekend(s) to avoid being a mammoth bomb.

 

Moving on to holdover business:

 

Peter Rabbit dropped to number two, suffering a slightly harsher drop this time, 42.5%. Maybe nothing to worry about? We'll see. Overall admissions at 47.8k.

 

Interestingly, Ready Player One had nearly identical drop to Peter Rabbit, 43.2%, settling for the number three slot. All in all, PR and RPO have been almost sibling-like with regards to their box office performance: openings in a similar kind of ballpark, not too different weekend drops (so far), and even in terms of admissions there isn't too much difference between the two with RPO at 49.7k and PR at 47.8k.

 

Black Panther had another fantastic hold, dropping only 23.2%. The overall admissions are at 142.7k. 150k admissions is still in sights, but it will be a crawl if it happens.

 

Coco also had a very good drop, 26.3%. The overall admissions are at 119.4k. 125k admissions is still doable, but like BP for its own milestone, it will be a crawl if it happens.

 

A couple of random milestones:

 

The Shape of Water crossed 70 000 admissions (with 71 503 to be exact). It's in "almost-blockbuster" territory. 

 

A local family film, Supermarsu (Super Guinea Pig in English), is the only film released in January that's still in the top 20. In fact, it only needs two more weekends in the top 20 to secure an unbroken streak of three consecutive months in the top 20 (the film was released on 26th January). I think it's doable since it isn't really shedding theaters and the holds it's been having in the 14-to-19 positions have been generally better than the competition. In terms of admissions it's at 126.6k; if it can secure the 3mo unbroken top 20 streak, I'm sure it will also get the 130k overall admissions milestone.

Edited April 16, 2018 by Marathon

[manny1234]

@Marathon What genres typically do well at the Finnish Box Office? One thing for sure the CBM genre which I am a huge fan of, and just like most of Europe it seems to do sometime okay business in Finland I guess.

Edited April 16, 2018 by manny1234

[Marathon]

@manny1234 I think the Finnish box office is more brand/franchise-driven than genre-driven. The brands/franchises which are huge in Europe (Bond, Star Wars, LotR & Hobbit, Potter, PotC, and so on) are also huge here. Other than those it's hard to think of a "surefire" thing at the local box office. Well, maybe local family films. Those always seem to do at least solid business.

 

For CBMs the ceiling seems to be lower than the very biggest blockbusters. Those CBMs that do well, can do really well, but even the best-performing of them never reach stratospheric heights. For example, and as far as I know, only one CBM has ever been in the top 3 in a yearly list. The best yearly rank in terms of admissions (figures also in euros when available) for a CBM, starting from 2002 (because after that there's been at least one major CBM per year):

 

2002: 6th (Spider-Man)

 

2003: 30th (X2: X-Men United)

 

2004: 3rd (Spider-Man 2) 💶 €1.72m

 

2005: 11th (Batman Begins) 💶 €1.06m

 

2006: 27th (X-Men: The Last Stand)

 

2007: 15th (Spider-Man 3) 💶 €1.03m

 

2008: 4th (The Dark Knight) 💶 €2.48m

 

2009: 32nd (Watchmen)

 

2010: 22nd (Iron Man 2)

 

2011: 57th (X-Men: First Class)

 

2012: 6th (The Dark Knight Rises) 💶 €2.79m

 

2013: 12th (Iron Man 3) 💶 €1.44m

 

2014: 18th (Guardians of the Galaxy) 💶 €1.10m

 

2015: 14th (Avengers: Age of Ultron) 💶 €1.51m

 

2016: 7th (Deadpool) 💶 €2.70m

 

2017: 20th (Guardians of the Galaxy 2) 💶 €1.38m

Edited December 26, 2018 by Marathon

[Marathon]

Continuing on the CBMs:

 

The clear box office standouts are the first two Raimi Spider-Man films, the Nolan Bat-films, and Deadpool.

 

The seemingly large increase in € between TDK and TDKR is somewhat misleading because the average ticket price increased a flabbergasting 19% between 2008 and 2012. In admissions, TDK is ahead of TDKR.

 

As we can see from the above list, when a CBM doesn't break out big, it usually doesn't even make the top 10 yearly list. Having said that, the emergence of MCU, especially post-Avengers, seems to have improved the landscape somewhat. From 2002 to 2011 the average best yearly rank for a CBM was 20,7. From 2012 to 2017 it improved to 13. In 2018 it's so far so good, as Black Panther has the highest overall admissions out of all of the movies that have premiered this year.

[Marathon]

No significant newcomers, so all focus on holdovers.

 

A Quiet Place retained number one, dropping 33.2% in the process. In and of itself that is a good drop, but the lowly opening weekend means AQP won't be significant even in terms of the local box office, which is a shame. The admissions are at 23.1k.

 

Peter Rabbit retained its number two spot with a splendid 19.5% drop. The overall admissions are at 54.3k.

 

Ready Player One retained its number three with a drop of 23.1%. The overall admissions are at 56.8k.

 

Rampage dropped 41.1% from its massively bombtastic opening weekend. It will still be a massive bomb, but at least it avoided Pacific Rim: Uprising's ignominy of nearly 60% second weekend drop.

 

Black Panther must have gotten a bump from the upcoming Infinity War, since it increased 10.8% from last weekend! We'll probably see a harsher drop next weekend as a consequence, but nevertheless, I don't see how BP could now miss 150k admissions (it's currently at 146.4k admissions).

 

Coco also got an increase! 12.2%. The overall admissions are at 121.9k, and I don't see how Coco could miss 125k admissions now.

 

The local family film Supermarsu (Super Guinea Pig in English) was once again in the top 20 for the weekend (at 15th place this time). It'll only need one more weekend in the top 20 for an unbroken streak of three consecutive months in the top 20. What a delightful little run it's having. Very pleased to see this kind of thing (longevity and late-late-legs) still happening at the box office.

[Marathon]

No prizes for guessing the number one movie this weekend. 

 

Infinity War opened on Wednesday and the overall haul for the 5-day opening is a massive 95.5k admissions, by far the best opening performance of 2018. It is hard to find a good comp because this level of performance indicates a far different type of reception than the previous two Avengers films, which were relative non-events at the local box office (neither even made the top 10 for the respective year-end lists), and the only CBM to break out massively since TDKR has been Deadpool (a non-sequel, surprise hit with a very leggy run at the local box office). But, I guess, naive apples-to-apples will have to do.

 

I can't find the long opening haul for The Avengers, so for that I can only comp the FSS haul.

 

"True" FSS weekend of IW (62.4k) versus...

 

TA: 31.1k, +100.6% difference

AoU: 33.9k, +84.1% difference

 

IW's long opening (95.5k) vs AoU's long opening (53.4k): +78.8% difference

 

As you can see from these figures, comparing IW to the previous Avengers seems like a somewhat futile effort. IW is (so far) playing like a huge blockbuster, whereas the previous two were solid performers but nothing spectacular. Of course, it is still unknown how much demand this massive opening has burnt for IW, but the Finnish box office is generally not frontloaded; this is why I expressed such astonishment at Pacific Rim: Uprising's nearly 60% second weekend drop, as such drops are almost unheard of at the local box office. There is thus hope that IW will not be frontloaded, and that would allow IW to target a couple of milestones which have so far eluded even the most popular CBMs here: 300k total admissions and €3m total gross.

[Marathon]

Alas, as soon as I had hoped Infinity War would not show frontloading, it dropped 52.9% from the FSS opening, which is slightly on the harsher side (at the local box office), but thankfully not crater-like, especially given the size of the overall opening. Moreover, staying relatively close to a 50% drop from said opening feels like important for the future, as the drops should become softer from hereon out.

 

And of course, for perspective, it is also important to keep in mind how huge this 2-week admissions surge for Infinity War has been: it already went past Black Panther (IW: 151.8k, BP: slightly under 150k) which itself comfortably surpassed the most popular CBM from last year, Guardians of the Galaxy 2 (123.5k).

 

It is hard to do a projection for the overall admissions before we see the 3rd weekend drop, but at any rate, I think IW should target 250k admissions. Under that would feel disappointing. The "dream" target, 300k admissions, seems like distant at the moment, unless IW starts having some absolutely astonishing holds.

 

In other box office news:

 

Black Panther dropped pretty hard this weekend, as it fell out of the top 20. It is infinitesimally close to 150k admissions now, and should get there regardless. Great milestone for that pic.

 

Coco went over 125k admissions, and seems to have extraordinarily good late legs. Even 130k admissions could still happen.

 

The local family film Supermarsu (Super Guinea Pig) continued its utterly splendid run. It has now been continuously in the top 20 since its opening (January 26). It has also gone past 130k admissions, and it barely drops from weekend to weekend, so even 140k admissions could still happen.

[Marathon]

:sadface:

 

Looks like the dream of 300k admissions is over for Infinity War. It dropped 52.4%, in other words, nearly identically to last weekend. I just hope not even 250k is dead, but we can't rule that out. It depends on the next weekend now.

 

So what's contributing to this unusual degree of frontloading/lack of legs?

 

I guess:

 

1) Massive opening

2) Very good weather for over a week now

3) The national ice hockey team playing at the IIHF world championships

4) Eurovision grand final on Saturday

 

If Infinity War was released slightly earlier here, it could have avoided issues 2-4 for slightly longer, even if that wouldn't have guaranteed super duper legs.

 

It is currently at 183k admissions, so getting past 200k admissions is guaranteed of course, but much beyond that looks admittedly iffy now. Deadpool 2 opening this Wednesday could be another spanner in the works. Ditto for SOLO opening on May 23rd.

 

But, on more positive news, the local family film Supermarsu (Super Guinea Pig) just keeps on continuing its astonishing run. It surged to the top 10 this weekend (8th position)! From last weekend it added a screen, and from last weekend it increased by 15.7% (1362 vs 1177 admissions)! All this for a movie that was released on 26th January!!

[Marathon]

Deadpool 2 had a long Wednesday-Sunday opening and posted 76.5k admissions. Very impressive, considering the terrific weather and various other factors. Comping to the first Deadpool is difficult because that one had a normal FSS opening, and was of course very walk-up driven due to the word of mouth. If we compare the FSS hauls only, DP2's FSS (44 878 admissions) was slightly smaller than the first one's (49 583 admissions). However, considering DP2's extra-long opening, such small difference is, again, pretty impressive.

 

On the other hand, being a sequel, some frontloading will probably be inevitable; I don't think DP2 can reach the original's overall haul of 245 780 admissions. The original benefited from a relatively blockbuster-empty February and March, so, in addition to its word of mouth, it was able (from the FSS) to leg it out to a stunning 4.96x multiplier. DP2 won't have the luxury of lack of competition - on the contrary, as the summer blockbuster season now kicks into high gear with SOLO already this Wednesday, then Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom on 8th June. Not to mention Infinity War still playing in theaters.

 

Speaking of which, Infinity War had its softest drop so far, only 37.1%! This is a rather peculiar drop, considering Deadpool 2 opened. I honestly don't have any explanation for this drop, so I'm just going to enjoy it, lol. Overall IW now has 202.1k admissions, and if these kind of soft drops continue, then 250k admissions could still happen, but it will require massive legwork in these late stages.

[Marathon]

An absolutely horrendous weekend.

 

Everything crashed, and I mean everything. Deadpool 2 and Infinity War suffered ghastly drops, Solo opened way below Rogue One, and even several holdovers with fantastic late-run legs just downright collapsed. A bloodbath.

 

Let's start with the opener Solo. It had a long Wednesday-Sunday opening and posted 48 535 admissions, grabbing number one spot. Compared to Rogue One's Wednesday-Sunday opening of 110 893 admissions, that's an ugly -56.2% lesser result. Considering that we're not in the lucrative December-January holiday period, and that Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom is about to open soon, Solo hasn't got a snowball's chance in hell of getting even near Rogue One's total admissions (345 172). In fact, Solo might not breach 200k admissions: even allowing a generous 4x multiplier from the long opening haul would see Solo under 200k. And under 200k admissions for a STAR WARS movie in Finland would be just pure and utter humiliation. Lucasfilm have messed up, and messed up badly.

 

Moving onto the other grim news:

 

Deadpool 2 suffered a grisly 60.6% drop from the opening FSS figure. That's a shocking degree of frontloading for the local box office (and here I thought - and justifiably as well! - that Infinity War's second weekend drop was quite poor). The overall admissions are at 113.4k. If it doesn't stabilize, then it is bound to miss 200k admissions, which would be quite the drop from the original's total haul. Some drop from the original was of course inevitable, but missing 200k admissions would still be a letdown.

 

Infinity War was another movie that was not spared of the weekend box office bloodbath, dropping an eye-watering 60%, which is somehow even worse than Deadpool 2's drop, considering that IW is late into its run and "should" not be dropping to such a degree in a (generally) backloaded market like Finland. The overall admissions are at 209.3k, but unless IW stages a miraculous late-run recovery, 250k admissions are out of reach. Considering the explosive opening, that's more than disappointing, and IW's run here shall forever be tinged with a hefty degree of bittersweetness.

 

Since all the other holdovers were victims of the same massacre, I'm not going to bother with them, just to sing the same grim note over and over again. So... I guess the only good news from the weekend is Coco (despite it too dropping heavily) getting past 130k admissions (with 130 361 to be exact). Coco's multiplier from the opening is now 6.89x. Reaching 7x could still happen.

 

Unfortunately, next weekend might not offer much respite for the overall box office from this weekend's devastation because it is graduation weekend here, meaning people will be busy even before Friday, and certainly on Friday and Saturday, then hungover on Sunday. If the weather is nice as well, I don't even want to think about the possible drops and admission figures.

[salvador-232]

What is ironic is this must be one of the better drops worldwide against Rogue One, wow. Is there a reason of why everything crashed and burn? Champions, climate or something else?

[Marathon]

9 minutes ago, salvador-232 said:

What is ironic is this must be one of the better drops worldwide against Rogue One, wow. Is there a reason of why everything crashed and burn? Champions, climate or something else?

A Champions League final could maybe, at best, explain a slightly muted weekend, but not the kind of nuclear apocalypse (lol) we just witnessed.

 

I think the weather is the single biggest reason. Since the climate here is unpredictable, outdoor activities take priority over everything else when the weather is good. There could also be some pent-up frustration being released, as last summer (2017) was probably the worst ever for outdoor activities in terms of temperatures (very cold), wind, and the sheer amount of rain, and thus, this year no one wants to waste even a day of good weather. The good winter weather earlier this year also explained some very muted periods at the local box office, as it was the first proper winter (in terms of snowfall and temperatures) in at least 5 years.

[Marathon]

This weekend seems to have been something of a mini-recovery from the apocalyptic wipeout of last time. Not quite enough to classify as a bounce back, but certainly better than feared.

 

No significant openers, so onto holdover business right away.

 

Solo dropped 51.4% from the FSS figure. That's a so-so drop. Certainly not the worst, but context is king here: the soft opening means Solo has limited scope at the box office, so only meh drops aren't going to improve Solo's overall situation. Anyway, Solo has posted 80.5k admissions so far.

 

Deadpool 2 dropped a decent 40.8%. The overall admissions are at 135.3k. Getting to 200k overall admissions by the end of its run is still hanging in the balance. If I were to hedge my bets, I would say DP2 won't reach the milestone. Last weekend's nasty over 60% drop did considerable damage. But, perhaps, as an R rated movie, it could coast along in its own niche, considering most of the upcoming competition in the summer is PG-13/family oriented. Quite obviously that won't still guarantee 200k admissions but it could give DP2 an outside chance.

 

Infinity War recovered from last weekend's horrendous fall to drop only 25.8% this time. Sadly, this is a case of too little too late. Even with 215.3k already in the bag, the overall admissions target of 250k seems beyond IW now (it only posted 2 619 admissions this weekend). It'll probably settle in the 225-235k range now. Bittersweet.

[Marathon]

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom opened with a normal FSS frame and grabbed the top spot with 33 018 admissions. That's only slightly down from JW1's similar FSS opening frame (39 006 adm.), a mere -15.4% difference. However, JW1 finished its run with 198 143 admissions, a stellar 5.08x multiplier. So, even in the unlikely event that JWFK matched that multi, it won't match the total haul of JW1 anyway. And since it stands to reason that the legs could be affected by sequelitis, the overall haul of JWFK could fall to 150k admissions, which at face value sounds bad, but even that would be a 4.54x multi. But, as always, the 2nd weekend drop will tell us more of its longer-term prospects.

 

In holdover news:

 

Solo had an absolutely fantastic hold, dropping only 36.3%! It still won't reach 200k admissions, but at least it's not dropping like a stone. Overall admissions at 101.6k.

 

Deadpool 2 took one look at Solo and said: "You may have shot first, but I dropped better!", and drop better he did, with a stupendous 24.8%!! That honestly is an absolutely crazy good hold, so maybe the initial frontloading scare has evaporated somewhat. If, IF, DP2 can stabilize from hereon out, 200k admissions could still be on the table! It currently has 152.7k admissions.

 

Infinity War also had a fantastic drop, only 28%. The overall admissions are currently an almost perfectly balanced 😜 220 200. Not much left in the tank, so IW will probably finish over/under 230k admissions for the totality of its run.

Edited June 11, 2018 by Marathon