BSG KITIK WINS!!

[Mattrek]

My top 15:1. Iron Man 360m locked2. Man of Steel 340m locked3. Star Trek Into Darkness 320m locked4. Despicable Me 300m locked5. Monsters University 240m locked6. Fast and Furious 6 220m locked7. Grown Ups 190m locked8. Wolverine 185m unknown9. The Hangover Part 3 180m unknown10. The Great Gatsby 135m locked11. The Lone Ranger 130m doubtful12. After Earth 125m doubtful13. Elysium 120m unknown14. Pacific Rim 115m unknown15. World War Z 110m locked

[Cedarpoint1111]

I hope at least one of pacific rim or Lone Ranger makes it to top 15. I'm screwed otherwise.

[chasmmi]

Well I desperately need to nail the top 15 if I want to break into the top 20 (or even 30 the rate things are going) so...

 

 

1) Iron Man 3 - 425M  Huzzah
2) Star Trek - 365M   In but the gross makes me sad
3) Monster's University: - 335M  See above
4) Despicable Me 2 - 315M  Huzzah
5) Man of Steel - 305M   Huzzah
6) Fast and furious 6 - 225M   Huzzah
7) Hangover 3 - 205M   Unknown AND the gross makes me sad
8) Lone Ranger - 185M  Who in the arse was I listening to when i put this in here! It was always going to be a disaster.
9) After Earth - 155M umm... yes I see what I did wrong here
10) Wolverine - 145M  Unknown
11) Pacific Rim - 135M  Unknown
12) Smurfs - 130M unknown
13) Turbo - 125M Unknown
14) WWZ - 120M   Yes but gross makes be sad yet again
15) Grown Ups 2 - 115M  Yes

 

 

So is there a bonus point for getting closest to the cut off gross for the top 15? Seriously I'll accept even a single bonus point if its going. (and if I turn out to be closest also. I need to win something)

[Dementeleus]

Shit, are we doing the embarrassment of our Top 15 now?

 

1: IM2 - 369
 In, and barely under the $40m safety margin, so STOP MAKING MONEY IM3!)

2: STID - 302
 In, but ouch

3: FF6 - 270 In


4: MOS - 259
 In, but I think I'll take a bit of a hit

5: MU - 258
 In, ditto

6: DM2 - 240
 In, OUCH

7: HM3 - 185 Out? OUCH


8: PR - 170 OUCH


9: The Heat - 160
 In

10: White House Down - 148
 OW OW OW

11: Grown Ups 2 - 145
 In

12: Lone Ranger - 142


13: Wolverine - 140 Unknown


14: WWZ - 133 In, but OUCH


15: Smurfs - 131 Unknown

[Michael Gary Scott]

Top 15 (as of September 2nd)1: Iron Man 3 - 360-decent2: Star Trek into Darkness -330-damn JJ!3: Monsters University - 275-good4: Man of Steel-270-good5: Despicable Me 2-260-ugh6: Fast and Furious 6-230-good7: Hangover 3-200-damn Bradley Cooper8: Lone Ranger-180-damn Depp9: Wolverine-160-inc10: Heat-140-good11: Pacific Rim-130-I blame tele12: World War Z-125-too low really13: Smurfs 2-123-inc14. 2 guns-120-inc15. WHD-118-damn Tatum!

[Blankments]

1. Iron Man 3 - 400M Good2. Star Trek Into Darkness - 345M Good for top15, bad for everything out3. Despicable Me 2 - 310M Low, but will be here4. Man of Steel - 300M Good5. Monsters University - 260M Good6. Pacific Rim - 230M Ouch, hope it'll be here7. Fast & Furious 6 - 220M Good

8. The Hangover Part III - 200M So yeah

9. White House Down - 190M These three

10. The Lone Ranger - 180M Suck hard

11. The Smurfs 2 - 165M Unknown, although I did start the less than 100M thread12. The Heat - 160M Goodish13. The Wolverine - 155M Unknown14. World War Z - 150M I'm happy I have it on the list

15. This Is The End - 140M Come on I hope it makes it

[glassfairy]

1) Iron Man 3: 450M

2) Man of Steel: 300M

3) Monsters University – 282M

4) Star Trek Into Darkness: 280M 

5) Despicable Me 2 – 279M

6) Fast and Furious 6 - 276M

7) After Earth – 164M

8) The Heat – 161M

9) The Smurfs 2 - 159M ???

10)The Great Gatsby - 150M

11)The Wolverine – 145M ???

12)White House Down – 138M http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/uploads/emoticons/default_dunce.gif' alt=':dunce:'>

13)Hangover 3 – 130M

14)Epic – 113M 

15)Elysium - 110M ???

 

I'm not even mad.

[MovieMan89]

My Top 15

1. Iron Man 3 - $415m Excellent

2. Despicable Me 2 - $382m Good-Excellent

3. Star Trek Into Darkness - $317m Bad

4. Monsters University - $315m Good

5. Man of Steel - $285m Good

6. Fast and the Furious 6 - $200m Decent

7. White House Down - $178m Lol, Epic FAIL

8.The Hangover 3 - $175m Bad

9. The Wolverine - $150m Unknown

10. The Heat - $145m Good

11. The Lone Ranger - $142m Bad-Decent (might still end up within 40m)

12. The Smurfs 2 - $125m Unknown

13. The Great Gatsby - $118m Good-ish

14. World War Z-$115m Bad

15. RED 2 - $110m Unknown (but looks bad at the moment)

 

Wishing so hard right now I would have swapped Red 2 for Elysium. Stupid mistake right there. Also shoulda swapped my WWZ and WHD predictions and then WHD wouldn't have screwed me so bad. I did nail the top 2 though and 4 of my top 5 are pretty good, so happy about that.

Edited July 14, 2013 by MovieMan89

[Shawn Robbins]

1. Iron Man 3 - $375m In the safe zone, at least.

2. Despicable Me 2 - $311m My confidence in this grew too slowly until May.

3. Star Trek Into Darkness - $310m Ouch. Some will say Pacific Rim's marketing fouled up the most this summer. I offer STID as a counter-argument.

4. Man of Steel - $290m Yay!

5. Monsters University - $275m Not bad.

6. Fast & Furious 6 - $226m Yay, but lowered from $235m at the last second. That might haunt me in 6 weeks.

7. Pacific Rim - $225m !@#$... probably. A year ago, I had this doing $125-150m. Tell myself to slap myself if legs don't come.

8. The Hangover Part III - $182m Ugh. Props to filmnerdjamie for having the balls in the winter to suggest this would fight for 2nd place on Mem Wknd.

9. The Heat - $150m - Not bad.

10. The Wolverine - $145m - Unknown, but seems like a movie most will have similar #s for.

11. Grown Ups 2 - $116m - Me likey things so far. Definitely don't see any 4x multiplier coming.

12. The Smurfs 2 - $115m  - Unknown

13. White House Down - $114m - Bah! I wanted to go $90-100m and said "no way, dude...it's Tatum".

14. The Lone Ranger - $110m - Please make top 15 and sprout legs to get to $105m (lulz)!

15. This Is the End - $95m - Need a bit of a miracle to get the benefit of this one... Elysium and Conjuring would both have to disappoint, methinks. Can't see that happening right now.

Edited July 14, 2013 by ShawnMR

[MovieMan89]

So happy I'm one of the few who don't have PR in my top 15.

[Shawn Robbins]

So, question: does anyone have a list of EVERYTHING that has or hasn't been scored for? Specifically, for SOTMs and all pre-season questions/bonuses/etc.

[Shawn Robbins]

So happy I'm one of the few who don't have PR in my top 15.

 

It's way to early yet to make that call. Won't take many upcoming releases to somewhat disappoint in order to lock top 15 for PR--even without strong legs (greater than 3x).

Edited July 14, 2013 by ShawnMR

[MovieMan89]

It's way to early yet to make that call. Won't take many upcoming releases to somewhat disappoint in order to lock top 15 for PR--even without strong legs (greater than 3x).

I still can't see much better than 3x multi for it. The Hellboy movies were more acclaimed than PR is and look at their WOM. GDT just doesn't appeal to the GA. 100 seems like a slim chance, unless it had a great Sat today and the OW is gonna be higher than the low 30's it looks like now. 12 movies are over 100m already, and Wolverine is locked and Smurfs is a near lock. TLR still has a shot and Elysium is looking like a solid bet for 100 as well. If PR can't hit 100 I don't see it hitting top 15.

Edited July 14, 2013 by MovieMan89

[Shawn Robbins]

I still can't see much better than 3x multi for it. The Hellboy movies were more acclaimed than PR is and look at their WOM. GDT just doesn't appeal to the GA. 100 seem like a slim chance, unless it had a great Sat today and the OW is gonna be higher than the low 30's it looks like.

 

Again, it's way too early to make any of those calls. One day doesn't make this film's box office run, and even for arguement's sake, that puts it on track for roughly $100 million, which is close to where the #15 film of summer is likely to be. Let's not be hasty in assuming anything is a done deal yet. 

[MovieMan89]

Again, it's way too early to make any of those calls. One day doesn't make this film's box office run, and even for arguement's sake, that puts it on track for roughly $100 million, which is close to where the #15 film of summer is likely to be. Let's not be hasty in assuming anything is a done deal yet. 

I think the fact that PR had such a high midnight percentage of its OD along with GDT's track record in the multi department give us a pretty solid idea of where PR is heading (the 90's range). No it's not a done deal, but seems likely it won't be really leggy. Unless the Sat # surprises and shows it's not so frontloaded.

Edited July 14, 2013 by MovieMan89

[Olive]

Top 15

1.Iron Man 3 – 381M A little lowballed

2.Star Trek Into Darkness – 320M Cheated by online buzz

3.Man of Steel – 281M Very good guess.

4.Monsters University – 265M Decent prediction.

5.Despicable Me 2 – 235M I must be out of mind

6.Pacific Rim – 230M Hope for out of world legs

7.Fast & Furious 6 – 225M Another good guuess

8.The Hangover Part III – 185M Damn..

9.Wolverine – 141M I have good feeling about this

10.The Lone Ranger – 135M Fuck it

11.After Earth – 120M Fuck again.  

12.White House Down – 115M   

13.Epic – 115M   

14.The Great Gatsby – 88M   

15.This Is The End – 86M   

[Sam]

After seeing everyone's lists, I just got even more depressed. Don't even want to take a look at my list cause I know it'll be horrendous 

[Olive]

So DM2 is set to drop more than 45%?

Another preseason question is saved.

[Olive]

Question 15:

Will Monster's University be the top grossing animated film this year in any of these three regions: (so even if it is in one of them, your answer is yes)

Japan
China
South Korea

 

Do we count local releases? Miyazaki 's The Wind Rises will be huge in Japan.

[MovieMan89]

So PR had a better Sat hold than I expected. Looks like 100 will happen now. Still think it may not make top 15, but it could.