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How much will Cold War gross in HK? Can it match Infernal Affairs's level?

In mainland I expect a 20m, it's a conservative number though.

It won't match Infernal Affairs for sure. Life of Pi is opening in 2 weeks and I can see that becoming a mini Avatar. I agree with Olive here. I see somewhere between 3-4m.

Skyfall weekend estimate - $1,950,000

Skyfall fell more than 11% on Sunday which suggests weak word of mouth and demand being met. It won't break 2m but that's where all the bad news stops.

Skyfall will increase 65% from both CR and QoS. More mainlanders/influx of British people, higher ticket prices and hot reviews accounts for most of this increase. It will pass 2m in just 5 days.

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Monday pre-sales - 4,898 (-71% from Thursday pre-sales)

Ouch! I didn't see this eroding so quickly. If it keeps on declining at this fast pace, it could fall over 70% next weekend. Early user reviews have been less than stellar for Skyfall. Since it only has decent word of mouth in HK, good legs most likely will not happen, especially with Cold War opening next week.

Cold War takes over the biggest screen next weekend. Pre-sales have looked solid at most theaters but they haven't been selling as fast as Skyfall did. Thursday looks a bit worrisome but Friday has seen admissions soar. With Skyfall exploding this weekend, theaters will have to make a big decision as to where to put their biggest screens on Saturday/Sunday. Most have already given Cold War the biggest screen on Thursday and Friday but if Skyfall cannot match the pace of Cold War, Cold War will take the biggest screen from Skyfall and that could give it the edge to win the weekend after Skyfall's surprising OW.

Moviegoers that caught the previews last week have given it a good rating so it seems word of mouth will spread nicely. I don't think it will have Overheard 2 legs but a higher OW is expected after the huge successes of the past 6 months (Vulgaria, Love in the Buff, A Simple Life, Nightfall). 1-1.2m OW is what I expect right now.

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Looking at the screen counts this week, Cold War has a huge advantage over Skyfall. It also helps to be distributed by the largest theater chain in HK (EDKO, which owns Broadway/AMC).

Cold War screen count

Broadway/AMC: 2-4 screens (most at 3)

UA: 2-3 screens

MCL: 2 screens

Skyfall - screen % loss (by theater chain)

Broadway/AMC: over 60% (some have cut Skyfall's screens by almost 75%)

UA: over 50%

MCL: 40% (The Grand is still a big supporter -- over 30 showings on Thursday)

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More screen counts are coming in and Broadway Mongkok (3rd highest grossing theater in HK) has cut 91% of Skyfall's screens on Thursday. Posted ImagePosted Image They're giving Cold War the 3 biggest screens and putting Skyfall in a small house.

Cold War is targeting a 1.3m OW while Skyfall is headed for a 62% collapse ($700,000 2nd weekend).

Edited by Bluebomb
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Cold War should lead off with 16,000-17,000 admissions in pre-sales. It is doing 5-10x Skyfall's night business at a number of locations and is in much bigger screens. For instance, at The ONE, Cold War is leading by nearly a 5:1 ratio while at Palace APM, Cold War has over an 8:1 advantage over Skyfall.Skyfall is heading for 4,000-5,000 in pre-sales (70-80% drop from OD pre-sales).

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Saw it at Sha Tin. My first movie experience in HK, and I hope the screens in other theaters are not the same because it was small.

Do you live in China?

Next time you watch a movie in HK, there are some theaters that have bigger screens. This post is from 2 pages ago.

The best theater is Pacific Place over in Admiralty. Comfy (leather seats), lots of legroom, stadium seating, big screens and decent sized theater. The only downside is that it's slightly more expensive (about $10-15 HKD more). If you like smaller theaters, you can head to Palace IFC in Central (also the same price as PP). It's essentially the same as PP but the houses are smaller. IFC also shows arthouse movies like Cinematheque does (although not as much). It's like a half blockbuster, half arthouse theater.

Cinematheque in Yau Ma Tei is almost a full arthouse theater. They will show some first run blockbuster movies but most of the time, they will show indie movies or the like. They recently renovated their theaters to include leather seats.

If you don't want to pay as much for a ticket, you can head to The ONE or iSquare in Tsim Sha Tsui. They both have leather seats and they are stadium seating. I personally prefer The ONE because it has bigger screens. I also heard Palace APM is OK (Kwun Tong station).

I heard good things about the UA Shatin theater as well. [well, not so good anymore]

If you don't mind sitting in fabric seats, Olympian City (Olympic -- Tung Chung line) is pretty cheap. They also have 11:30 morning showtimes for most movies (almost half price of a regular ticket). Smell sometimes is unbearable. It depends on the day though.

The Grand Cinema (Kowloon [Elements mall] -- Tung Chung line) is also pretty good although a word of caution, only House 6 (Manhattan Galaxy) and House 1 are stadium seating. The rest are theaters where you have to look UP at the screen. But house 6 has the biggest screen, bigger than Pacific Place. I think it is close to the size of the iSquare IMAX. Very big.

It all depends on what you are looking for.

Barney Ross (Unagi) also recommended iSQUARE if that helps. I personally don't like iSQUARE as much as The ONE because the screens there are small.

My top 3 personal favourite theaters are

1. Pacific Place (best all around theater, big screen, leather seats, stadium seating, best service)

2. The ONE (slightly smaller screen than Pacific Place, leather seats, stadium seating)

3. Palace IFC (stadium seating [except house 5 -- watch out], same sized screen as Pacific Place, leather seats; downside...houses are way too small)

Edited by Bluebomb
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Thursday admissions (so far)

1. Cold War - 12,997

2. Skyfall - 3,996 (-75.9%)

Cold War pre-sales are looking good. It's up 62.6% from Love in the Buff's opening day and 112.8% higher than Overheard 2's opening day. It is lagging behind A Simple Life's opening day numbers, making just over half of ASL's opening day pre-sales. Weekend pre-sales for Cold War seem to be much better than its weekday evening shows. It will open to over 1m and could reach 1.5m if all goes well.

Skyfall is falling apart. With only average WOM in HK and Cold War taking the majority of screens, Skyfall's pre-sales have took a huge hit. Last Thursday saw huge pre-sales in the areas with more foreigners (Central, Admiralty, Tsim Sha Tsui) but this week, ticket sales for Skyfall in Tsim Sha Tsui have evaporated. The business sector on HK Island is still doing the best with sellouts for Skyfall as early as 5 PM today. Even with the fast selling for Skyfall there, Cold War has performed admirably. Cold War will remain on the biggest screens on Saturday and Sunday so chances of Skyfall mounting a comeback on the weekend to salvage a decent hold is very slim. Last week had very high pre-sales but this week, pre-sales have been slow at most places. Walk-ins could make up 75% of Skyfall's business today whereas last week, pre-sales accounted for almost 50%.

Some good news for Skyfall now. It opened to 1.97m last weekend according to Mojo and it pushed the total box office high enough to claim the biggest November weekend on record! Woo-hoo!

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                Nov 1 WKD
Rank Movie Distributor Weekend BO Weeks Engmnts Eng. average % change B.O. Cume
1 Skyfall Sony $1,824,640 1 132 $13,823   $1,824,640
2 Natural Born Lovers Newport Entertainment $175,995 2 37 $4,757 -40% $601,097
3 Silent Hill: Revelation 3D Edko Films $148,382 2 47 $3,157 -60% $657,573
4 Umizaru4 (Umizaru 4) Intercontinental Films $87,253 2 22 $3,966 -51% $438,036
5 Frankenweenie Disney $24,753 3 19 $1,303 -77% $543,378
6 The Perks of Being A Wallflower Deltamac (HK) $18,434 3 8 $2,304 -47% $131,158
7 Going With The West Newport Entertainment $17,664 7 6 $2,944 -42% $2,404,935
8 Heruta Sukeruta (Helter Skelter) Intercontinental Films $16,202 4 8 $2,025 -75% $766,966
9 Tai Chi II: Heroes Rise (Tai Chi II) Intercontinental Films $14,088 2 15 $939 -81% $115,317
10 The Intouchables Golden Scene Co $9,913 9 9 $1,101 -57% $1,061,937
Big discrepancy between Mojo and Variety this week. Regardless, Skyfall opened to huge numbers. Natural Born Lovers held very well. Silent Hill is having toxic WOM. Umizaru isn't doing too badly. Frankenweenie had most of its screens cut. The Perks of Being A Wallflower is holding excellently after that slow OW. Due West is holding decently. Helter Skelter has done pretty well. Tai Chi 2 is having terrible legs. Intouchables is holding on but won't last much longer.

 

Edited by Bluebomb
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  Thursday       November 8
Rank Title LW (adm.) TW (adm.) Gross (USD) % chg (adm.)
1 Cold War -- 41,798 $345,170 --
2 Skyfall 40,134 13,588 $138,383 -66.1%
3 Natural Born Lovers -- 1,840 $15,346 --
4 Umizaru: Brave Hearts -- 1,052 $8,474 --
5 Silent Hill: Revelation -- 1,030 $11,094 --
WOW. Cold War manages to defeat Skyfall's OD admissions. That is fantastic. It did a 3x multiplier today. This bodes really well for the weekend where pre-sales have looked even better than today. It will take home the biggest OW of the year for a local film and will pass 1.5m OW. 2m can not be counted out.

Its OD is +127.5% higher than Overheard 2's opening day, +124.0% bigger than Love in the Buff and +10.0% stronger than A Simple Life, which opened on a Friday and had a boost with night shows. This is unbelievable. WOM has looked good so far. If it holds, we might even see our first 5m grosser for a local film this year.

Skyfall crumbled under Cold War's watch. The negative word of mouth among the general public doesn't inspire confidence that it will hold better the coming weeks. Overall WOM remains ok but it is a divisive film amongst moviegoers. It'll rebound slightly this weekend but Cold War remains a huge force this weekend. It'll drop slightly bigger on Saturday while flexing a better hold on Sunday. Skyfall could squeeze out a 60% drop if it holds well on Sunday.

 

Edited by Bluebomb
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    Thursday Actuals           November 8
LW TW Title Last Thu. (USD) Thursday (USD) % chg Screens Days Total
-- 1 Cold War -- $259,836 -- 92 1 $269,658
1 2 Skyfall $346,399 $116,077 -66.5% 84 8 $2,576,356
2 3 Natural Born Lovers -- $11,306 -- 31 15 $699,560
3 4 Silent Hill: Revelation -- $8,317 -- 26 15 $721,450
4 5 Umizaru: Brave Hearts -- $5,759 -- 20 15 $480,502
-- 6 Bel Ami -- $2,547 -- 4 1 $2,547
-- 7 Due West -- $2,494 -- 5 50 $2,417,434
-- 8 The Perks of Being A Wallflower -- $2,027 -- 6 22 $144,506
-- 9 Monsieur Lazhar -- $1,708 -- 2 1 $2,580
-- 10 Frankenweenie -- $1,055 -- 3 22 $550,890

This is why ticket prices are so important in HK. Nearly $100,000 difference from Skyfall's OD actual. Cold War is still a huge hit even with the downgrade. It will still pass 1.5m this weekend. Huge plunge for Skyfall. Great reviews are not helping this movie. Average word of mouth in HK is sinking this. Natural Born Lovers is doing well. Silent Hill Revelation will come within $50,000 of the original. Umizaru is also showing some legs. Bel Ami flopped. Due West has been doing ok after the holiday. The Perks of Being A Wallflower has already surpassed a 4x multiplier after its OW. Monsieur Lazhar is off to a fairly good start. Frankenweenie has done ok for itself.

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