Hong Kong Hong Kong Box Office

[Michael Seng Wah]

Ok, so after a few more hours of seeing where The Hobbit will finish on Thursday, I think I can confidently predict what will happen this weekend.

Thu: $300,000 (25,000 admissions)

Fri: $450,000 (+50%)

Sat: $950,000 (+111%)

Sun: $850,000 (-11%)

Total: $2,550,000 (+45% from ROTK's 7-day week)

The Hobbit should start off lower on Thursday but will pick up on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Saturday should see an enormous jump over 100% and weekend pre-sales are backing this scenario.

Christmas weekend should see a very strong hold, still in the 2m+ range.

Possible 5-6mil cume after X-mas?

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Too bad wont match TA.

[Bluebomb]

Possible 5-6mil cume after X-mas?

Should be about 6m after Xmas and 7.5m after New Year weekend.

[Michael Seng Wah]

Should be about 6m after Xmas and 7.5m after New Year weekend.

That is a fine number for me =)

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Fine but nothing special.

[Bluebomb]

	Thursday			December 13
Rank	Title	LW (adm.)	TW (adm.)	% chg (adm.)
1	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey	--	18,440	--
2	My Sassy Hubby	9,864	7,664	-22.3%
3	Life of Pi	9,443	5,142	-45.5%
4	Back to 1942	3,784	1,859	-50.9%
5	Cold War	4,386	1,658	-62.2%

Disappointing. I was counting on it hitting 25,000 today. It'll make over $200,000 with actuals but this wasn't what I had envisioned for The Hobbit. My Sassy Hubby had an excellent hold. Looks like this will make about 1.5m even though WOM is only so-so. Very good for Life of Pi but actuals should have it dropping over 50% due to the loss of IMAX. Back to 1942 had a decent hold. Cold War did poorly.

 

[Bluebomb]

How does The Hobbit's opening day fare compared to previous blockbusters?

Movie	OD admissions	% diff
The Hobbit	18,440
The Dark Knight Rises	38,750	-52.4%
The Amazing Spider-Man	32,580	-43.4%
The Avengers	47,317	-61.0%
Transformers 3	44,161	-58.2%
Harry Potter 7-2	62,089	-70.3%
Toy Story 3	32,294	-42.9%
Pirates 4	21,559	-14.5%
Shrek 3	49,634	-62.8%

Granted, everything else is from the summer. Still, The Hobbit should have done at least 20k.

Life of Pi actually beat its opening day admissions by 7%. Before anyone chides me over the fact that it's a 3 hour long movie, The Hobbit is a blockbuster with a built in fanbase. Life of Pi had none.

That doesn't mean The Hobbit can't recover from this setback. It can but it'll be a lot harder to increase over Christmas when you've did worse than theaters expected and with Jack Reacher, Twilight and Wreck-It Ralph all fighting for screens. I am still optimistic that The Hobbit will start to pull in admissions this weekend and it will spread over into Christmas but I'm definitely not liking this low start.

If we put in Mission Impossible 4 into the blockbuster mix...

Mission Impossible 4

24,390

-24.4%

Not an encouraging sign for The Hobbit.

Hoping for better from The Hobbit this weekend.

[Bluebomb]

	Friday adm.	(so far)			December 14
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg	QD % chg
1	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey	--	10,307	--	+18.2%
2	Life of Pi	5,835	2,390	-59.0%	+54.5%
3	My Sassy Hubby	2,436	1,712	-29.7%	+35.1%
4	Back to 1942	1,104	534	-51.6%	+39.8%
5	Cold War	1,711	528	-69.1%	+50.9%

Not a great Friday start for The Hobbit. Huge crash for Life of Pi. My Sassy Hubby had another excellent hold. Back to 1942 is doing OK. Cold War is dead in the water.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Hobbit officially flopped here.

[Bluebomb]

No it didn't. Stop being overdramatic.

[Ajde]

Hobbit officially flopped here.

Cut it out for god's sake.Stop trying to make drama happen, it's not going to happen!Hobbit isn't doing big bussines in HK as we see the first numbers but it's neither flopping nor bombing.

[Olive]

BD2 has previews this weekend?

[Bluebomb]

BD2 has previews this weekend?

Yes. So does Wreck-It Ralph.

[Bluebomb]

								Dec. 6 WKD
Rank	Movie	Distributor	Weekend BO	Weeks	Engmnts	Eng. average	% change	B.O. Cume
1	Life of Pi	Fox	$736,015	3	62	$11,871	-35%	$4,040,277
2	My Wife Is 18 (2)	Gala Films	$406,323	1	39	$10,419		$406,323
3	Cold War	Edko Films	$177,595	5	39	$4,554	-51%	$5,300,127
4	Back to 1942	Lark Films Distribution	$158,350	1	21	$7,540		$158,350
5	Code Name: Geronimo	Intercontinental Films	$65,240	1	14	$4,660		$65,240
6	Skyfall	Sony	$64,564	6	18	$3,587	-52%	$4,762,129
7	Rurouni Kenshin	Panasia Films	$47,354	1	12	$3,946		$47,354
8	Fierce Wife: Final Episode, The	BVI	$44,306	1	11	$4,028		$44,306
9	Rise of The Guardians	Intercontinental Films	$39,010	3	17	$2,295	-51%	$307,269
10	Sutekina Kanashibari (Once in the Blue Moon)(Ghost Of A Chance, A)	Golden Scene Co	$34,217	1	6	$5,703		$34,217

Good hold for Life of Pi. Good start for My Sassy Hubby. Cold War just missed being the first film in a while to drop less than 50% for 4 straight weeks. Exceptional total, however, and it will pass 5.4m. Back to 1942 opened OK. Code Name Geronimo blew up. Skyfall is dying now that Life of Pi and My Sassy Hubby have taken over. Ruruoni Kenshin, Fierce Wife both had dismal openings. Rise of the Guardians couldn't drop under 50% despite falling less than 50% on Sunday. A Ghost of a Chance put in a decent performance.

	Friday				December 14
Rank	Title	LW (adm.)	TW (adm.)	% chg (adm.)	QD % chg (adm.)
1	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey	--	22,592	--	+22.5%
2	My Sassy Hubby	11,450	8,948	-21.9%	+16.8%
3	Life of Pi	14,703	7,328	-50.2%	+42.5%
4	Back to 1942	4,328	2,448	-43.4%	+31.7%
5	Cold War	6,314	2,290	-63.7%	+38.1%

Hobbit isn't doing so great. I am still a believer that it will do great things this Christmas. It looks like this will start off with 1.5m. Saturday and Sunday should pick up a bit but not too much considering the holidays are just around the corner. Before anyone calls it a flop, please remember that ROTK made only 1.76m from 7 days so it will still gross more in 1 week than ROTK. And it will still beat ROTK's final gross.

My Sassy Hubby had an outstanding hold. Of course, it won't hold as well on Saturday and Sunday but it should be able to get $275,000 this weekend. Life of Pi held OK but its Saturday and Sunday drops will be larger so the drop isn't anything spectacular. Back to 1942 is showing signs of a decent hold. Cold War is almost dead. The 50% drop last week was the beginning of the end for it. It'll still leave theaters with 5.4m, far above what anyone expected from this movie.

	Saturday adm.	(so far)			December 15
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg	QD % chg
1	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey	--	16,202	--	+57.2%
2	Twilight: Breaking Dawn 2	--	5,282	--	--
3	Life of Pi	11,416	4,341	-62.0%	+81.6%
4	My Sassy Hubby	3,940	2,310	-41.4%	+34.9%
5	Wreck-It Ralph	--	1,583	--	--

Still not that good for The Hobbit. I expected a huge jump and it didn't materialize. Let's see if it picks up with walk-ins.

Twilight got off to an early start thanks to Saturday night previews. Only 10 PM shows were scheduled throughout the city so this is a pretty nice start. I don't want to say it's outstanding because Twihards love to come out on opening day and then start to disappear afterward. Let's see how much this will help with its opening weekend next week. I think it will get to $900,000 including these previews but I think 1m will be a stretch because it will be fighting for the female demographic with Les Miserables and The Hobbit this year. It had the female demographic to itself last year when Sherlock Holmes/Mission Impossible clogged up the majority of the screens and in 2010 when Eclipse opened against Shrek 4. The only time it faced a movie with a female demographic was Avatar in 2009. Avatar killed everything and New Moon fell from Twilight by $300,000 (1.89m total for New Moon). Twilight has never hit #1 ever in HK and next week will be no different. The Hobbit will beat it; Jack Reacher could do it. To this day, Twilight remains the biggest film of the franchise in HK.

Notice the increasingly bigger drops for Life of Pi this week? Good because The Hobbit is snatching away its weekend screens and as a result, it doesn't have the showings to maintain the business it did last weekend. It is pursuing a $350,000 weekend and a total of 4.6m. My Sassy Hubby has pulled off very strong performances the past few days. Although it slid a harder 41% with pre-sales on Saturday, it is looking at a very strong hold of just -30%.

Wreck-It Ralph also got the special screenings treatment on Saturday. Theaters have given it different showtimes. Some have given it only 1 morning showing while others have given it 5, 6, even 7 showings. While this is only pre-sales for previews, it nearly matched Rise of the Guardians even though it had less showtimes and awareness. It'll stomp all over Rise of the Guardians and crush its total with just its opening weekend.

 

[Bluebomb]

Les Misérables sneaks begin Dec. 22 and will last until Christmas Eve.

[Bluebomb]

Opening day

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey - $255,627

Much lower than what I initially predicted but higher than what its admissions and avg price suggested. It'll make about 1.5m this weekend, which is an acceptable gross for The Hobbit here. It still has a lot of work ahead if it wants to make 10m.

Figures for the holdovers will be posted later.

[Bluebomb]

Thursday actuals (December 13)
1. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey - $255,627 (opening day)
2. My Sassy Hubby - $50,350 (-20.5%)/$675,217
3. Life of Pi - $45,186 (-43.6%)/$4,309,513
4. Back to 1942 - $12,910 (-50.8%)/$236,261
5. Cold War - $10,199 (-59.4%)/$5,374,626

Others
Skyfall - $4,785,909
The Fierce Wife - $67,134
Rurouni Kenshin - $2,582 (-67.8%)/$77,462
A Ghost of A Chance - $2,065/$50,350
All About My Wife - $516 (opening day)

My Sassy Hubby held well. Ok for Life of Pi. Back to 1942 had an average hold. Cold War is fading.

	Saturday				December 15
Rank	Title	LW (adm.)	TW (adm.)	% chg (adm.)	QD % chg (adm.)
1	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey	--	34,430	--	+52.4%
2	Life of Pi	29,638	11,919	-59.8%	+62.7%
3	My Sassy Hubby	19,945	11,604	-41.8%	+29.7%
4	Twilight: Breaking Dawn 2	--	6,292	--	--
5	Wreck-It Ralph	--	4,235	--	--

Decent increase for The Hobbit. All holdovers today saw steep drops compared to Thursday and Friday. Life of Pi went down 60% today because of Hobbit/Breaking Dawn Part 2/Wreck-It Ralph combo. My Sassy Hubby held the best of any holdover and only dropped 42%. Those are good sneak numbers for Breaking Dawn Part 2. Wreck-It Ralph unofficially opened to a fairly good number. It will increase on Sunday.

 

[Bluebomb]

The Hobbit will generate a 3D market share of about 80-85% this weekend.

	Weekend Projections			December 13
Rank	Title	TW	% chg	Total
1	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey	$1,500,000		$1,500,000
2	Life of Pi	$320,000	-56.5%	$4,585,000
3	My Sassy Hubby	$260,000	-36.0%	$885,000
4	Wreck-It Ralph	$75,000		$75,000
5	Back to 1942	$72,000	-54.5%	$295,000

Breaking Dawn Part 2 grossed $35,000 in sneaks.

A slow-ish start for The Hobbit. But if we compare its projected HK gross to other places, 1.5m isn't bad at all. I expect a slight increase over the Christmas holidays. Life of Pi is capsizing due to weaker Saturday/Sunday admissions. 5m is a toss up. My Sassy Hubby will have the best hold of the top 10. Likewise with almost all holdovers this weekend, its best days were Thursday/Friday when it only dropped 20%~. It'll pass 1m next week. Wreck-It Ralph sneaks were decent. The sneaks will help bring in more awareness before next week's official opening day. Early reviews are looking good. Back to 1942 was looking at an OK hold before dipping quite hard on Saturday. $400,000 is out of the picture.

	Sunday adm.	(so far)			December 16
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg	QD % chg
1	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey	--	16,525	--	+2.0%
2	Life of Pi	14,168	5,382	-62.0%	+24.0%
3	My Sassy Hubby	3,967	2,828	-28.7%	+22.4%
4	Wreck-It Ralph	--	2,473	--	+56.2%
5	Back to 1942	2,131	1,244	-41.6%	--

Not bad for The Hobbit. Life of Pi is still feeling the weight of lost Saturday/Sunday showings. It'll increase today. Great hold for My Sassy Hubby in pre-sales but it'll fall about 40% on Sunday. Huge increase for Wreck-It Ralph. It'll make close to 10,500 admissions in 2 days. Decent pre-sales hold for Back to 1942 but it will give way to a larger drop, possibly over 55% today.

 

[Bluebomb]

	Sunday				December 16
Rank	Title	LW (adm.)	TW (adm.)	% chg (adm.)	QD % chg (adm.)
1	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey	--	32,628	--	-5.2%
2	Life of Pi	29,320	12,277	-58.1%	+3.0%
3	My Sassy Hubby	19,260	11,903	-38.2%	+2.6%
4	Wreck-It Ralph	--	6,578	--	+55.3%
5	Back to 1942	6,894	3,377	-51.0%	+16.3%

8 out of the top 9 films increased on Sunday except for The Hobbit. Still, that number is OK for The Hobbit. Underwhelming hold for Life of Pi. My Sassy Hubby held well. Massive Sunday increase for Wreck-It Ralph. It even beat Rise of the Guardians' biggest admissions day with just its Sunday previews. It will see a huge spike next week when it opens for good. It will at least quadruple Rise of the Guardians' final gross. Back to 1942 posted a solid Sunday increase as well.

	Weekend adm.			Dec 13-16
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey	--	108,090	--
2	Life of Pi	83,104	36,666	-55.9%
3	My Sassy Hubby	60,519	40,119	-33.7%
4	Wreck-It Ralph	--	10,813	--
5	Back to 1942	22,506	10,588	-53.0%

	Weekend Estimates			December 13
Rank	Title	TW	% chg	Total
1	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey	$1,500,000		$1,500,000
2	Life of Pi	$320,000	-56.5%	$4,585,000
3	My Sassy Hubby	$260,000	-36.0%	$885,000
4	Wreck-It Ralph	$80,000		$80,000
5	Back to 1942	$75,000	-52.6%	$298,000

Not much change with estimates except for the bottom 2 which saw double digit increases on Sunday.

 

[Fake]

LoP will do 5m, right?