Hong Kong Hong Kong Box Office

[Bluebomb]

Not sure yet. Even though it'll be a little more than $400,000 away after this weekend, I fear it might not survive the onslaught that is coming next week.A 55% drop this weekend isn't bad at all despite The Hobbit starting with a whimper. But it really needed to hold better if it wanted to convince theater chains of keeping it another week. I think it will get squeezed out next weekend. It's got The Hobbit, Jack Reacher, Twilight Breaking Dawn 2, Les Misérables, Wreck-It Ralph, CZ12 all getting screens. That leaves it without a screen. Now CZ12 might get a smaller release but I could easily see another screen going to The Hobbit/Twilight/Jack Reacher. It's all very up in the air right now but I think Life of Pi will lose out on a respectable hold next weekend and 5m overall.

[Bluebomb]

Opening week(end) comparisonFOTR: No dataTTT: $1,806,454 (7 day week + previews)ROTK: $1,762,788 (7 day week)Hobbit: $1,500,000 (4-day est., 7 day over 2m -- 80-85% 3D)I'd say that's an OK start for The Hobbit.

[Bluebomb]

December 13 Weekend Actuals

1. The Hobbit - $1,488,931 (weekend actual)
2. Life of Pi - $4,598,397 (~ $335,000 this weekend, -54.5%)
3. My Sassy Hubby - $913,486 (~ $290,000 this weekend, -29.0%)
Back to 1942 - $296,754 (~ $74,000 this weekend, -53.3%)
Cold War - $5,416,406 (~ $53,000 this weekend, -70.0%)
Penance (Part 1) - $9,031 (weekend actual)
All About My Wife - $2,838 (weekend actual)

Others
Skyfall - $4,806,125
A Ghost of A Chance - $64,511
Rurouni Kenshin - $91,606
Rise of the Guardians - $317,397
The Fierce Wife - $85,155

The Hobbit just missed 1.5m this weekend. I could have sworn Life of Pi made just over 4.6m this weekend. In any case, it has already passed 4.6m on Monday. 5m still unsure. My Sassy Hubby had a wonderful hold. Will pass 1m by Wednesday. Cold War stumbled 70% this weekend. 5.5m is gone. Penance Part 1 scored a $9,031 weekend from 1 theater. All About My Wife slumbered and opened very poorly.

Skyfall's time is just about up. A Ghost of A Chance, Rurouni Kenshin and The Fierce Wife won't make much more before leaving next week. Rise of the Guardians will be gone from the remaining theaters next weekend.

December 20 Predictions

[Bluebomb]

Thursday schedules

Olympian City
New	Holdovers	Leaving
Wreck-It Ralph (Can.) - 2 showings	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey 3D - 1 showing (▼ 6)	The Fierce Wife
Wreck-It Ralph (3D Can.) - 3 showings	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey - 5 showings (-)	Cold War
CZ12 - 4 showings	Back to 1942 - 2 showings (▼ 4)
Jack Reacher - 5 showings	My Sassy Hubby - 2 showings (▼ 6)
Twilight: Breaking Dawn 2 - 12 showings	Life of Pi - 2 showings (▲ 1)
	Life of Pi 3D - 1 showing (▼ 5)

Palace APM
New	Holdovers	Leaving
Wreck-It Ralph (Can.) - 1 showing	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey 3D - 5 showings (▼ 9)	Rurouni Kenshin
Wreck-It Ralph (3D Can.) - 4 showings	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey - 3 showings (▼ 5)	Life of Pi
CZ12 - 5 showings	My Sassy Hubby - 4 showings (▼ 7)	Cold War
Jack Reacher - 6 showings	Life of Pi 3D - 3 showings (▼ 5)
Twilight: Breaking Dawn 2 - 11 showings

Cityplaza
New	Holdovers	Leaving
Wreck-It Ralph (Can.) - 1 showing	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey 3D - 4 showings (▼ 10)	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Wreck-It Ralph (3D Can.) - 4 showings	Back to 1942 - 1 showing (▼ 4)	My Sassy Hubby
CZ12 - 7 showings	Life of Pi 3D - 1 showing (▼ 6)
Jack Reacher - 6 showings
Twilight: Breaking Dawn 2 - 7 showings

Langham Place
New	Holdovers	Leaving
Wreck-It Ralph (Can.) - 1 showing	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey HFR 3D - 5 showings (▼ 6)	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Wreck-It Ralph (3D Can.) - 4 showings	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey 3D - 1 showing (▼ 5)	Code Name Geronimo
CZ12 - 10 showings	My Sassy Hubby - 3 showings (▼ 8)	Cold War
Jack Reacher - 7 showings	Back to 1942 - 1 showing (▼ 4)	Love in Time
Twilight: Breaking Dawn 2 - 10 showings	Life of Pi 3D - 2 showings (▼ 7)

Theaters are trying hard to boost Twilight to grab its first ever #1 weekend. Breaking Dawn Part 2 is getting the most showtimes at all locations due to very high pre-sales on Thursday. CZ12 is getting about 5 showtimes at Broadway but because it's a UA film, it is getting the most showtimes in most UA theaters. Jack Reacher looks to be getting 1 screen at most places. Wreck-It Ralph is getting morning and afternoon showtimes with a handful of theaters giving it night shows. The Hobbit will relinquish the biggest screen to Twilight and its showtimes will get cut in half due to the big competition. A mixed bag for Life of Pi with some theaters taking it out completely or leaving it with 1 showing while others have slashed half of its showings. My Sassy Hubby is still on at most locations with about 3-4 showtimes a day. Back to 1942 will leave a lot of theaters this week due to local competition from CZ12. Cold War is the big loser this week with more than 60% of theaters opting to show a different film.

 

[Bluebomb]

Here's the Thursday schedule over at Langham Place for my predicted top 3 this weekend.

Langham Place
	Breaking Dawn 2					The Hobbit (all v.)					Jack Reacher
Day	Time	Seats sold	Seats available	% filled	Day	Time	Seats sold	Seats available	% filled	Day	Time	Seats sold	Seats available	% filled
Dec. 20	9:10 AM	51	180	28.3%	Dec. 20	9:20 AM	5	202	2.5%	Dec. 20	9:10 AM	14	180	7.8%
	10:55 AM	14	191	7.3%		12:30 PM	2	202	1.0%		11:25 AM	1	180	0.6%
	1:35 PM	38	191	19.9%		3:40 PM	12	202	5.9%		1:45 PM	3	180	1.7%
	3:50 PM	69	191	36.1%		6:50 PM	21	180	11.7%		4:50 PM	3	180	1.7%
	5:25 PM	75	191	39.3%		9:30 PM	28	202	13.9%		7:00 PM	49	202	24.3%
	7:40 PM	139	191	72.8%		12:40 AM	2	202	1.0%		9:55 PM	19	191	9.9%
	8:25 PM	141	191	73.8%							12:20 AM	3	180	1.7%
	10:35 PM	120	202	59.4%
	12:00 AM	53	180	29.4%
	12:50 AM	13	202	6.4%
Total		713	1910	37.3%	Total		70	1190	5.9%	Total		92	1293	7.1%

That is scary bad for The Hobbit and Jack Reacher. Breaking Dawn Part 2 has over a 10x advantage over The Hobbit and is doing nearly 8 times the business of Jack Reacher. Crazy.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

BD2 will destroy Hobbit ...

[Bluebomb]

Posting the opening day schedules for the other 2 big openers as well.

Langham Place
	Wreck-It Ralph (all v.)					CZ12
Day	Time	Seats sold	Seats available	% filled	Day	Time	Seats sold	Seats available	% filled
Dec. 20	8:50 AM	0	191	0.0%	Dec. 20	9:00 AM	14	202	6.9%
	11:20 AM	0	202	0.0%		11:05 AM	4	191	2.1%
	1:10 PM	8	191	4.2%		1:30 PM	10	202	5.0%
	3:20 PM	15	191	7.9%		3:50 PM	5	202	2.5%
	6:10 PM	38	202	18.8%		6:05 PM	0	191	0.0%
						7:20 PM	13	180	7.2%
						8:15 PM	27	202	13.4%
						9:40 PM	16	180	8.9%
						10:00 PM	0	180	0.0%
						12:25 AM	0	191	0.0%
Total		61	977	6.2%	Total		89	1921	4.6%

CZ12 is doing slightly better than I expected. It still doesn't excuse the fact that it has the most seats available but is doing slightly worse than Jack Reacher. Wreck-It Ralph isn't doing too bad. For a Thursday, that is decent for a kids movie. It's even doing well with the 6 PM showtime.

A couple of other theaters that scheduled Wreck-It Ralph for 7 or 8 PM are seeing solid admissions with that showing. So it's not just playing to families but couples as well.

 

[Bluebomb]

Thursday pre-sales

	Thursday adm.	(so far)		December 20
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Twilight: Breaking Dawn Part 2	--	14,846	--
2	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey	8,719	4,502	-48.4%
3	CZ12	--	2,214	--
4	Wreck-It Ralph	--	2,061	--
5	Jack Reacher	--	1,872	--

How does this compare to previous "Twilight" installments?

"Twilight" Movie	Thu. Presales	% diff
Breaking Dawn Pt. 2	14,876
Eclipse	25,553	-41.8%
Breaking Dawn Pt. 1	16,573	-10.2%

It's down from the previous 2 but the good news is that Eclipse was buoyed by a holiday and Breaking Dawn Part 1 had no special screenings like Part 2 did. If we add the 6,292 admissions from last Saturday...

"Twilight" Movie	Thu. Presales	% diff
Breaking Dawn Pt. 2	21,168
Eclipse	25,553	-17.2%
Breaking Dawn Pt. 1	16,573	+27.7%

Not too shabby. Decent start for Twilight. It is looking at 32,000 admissions for the day.

The Hobbit will hold much better throughout the day. I'd say about a 12,000 2nd Thursday (or a 35% drop from opening day). CZ12 started off well considering Jackie Chan's most recent films. Wreck-It Ralph opened quite good. Very poor for Jack Reacher. Might not even make half of Knight and Day's opening day admissions.

I'll be doing more comparisons tomorrow.

 

[Bluebomb]

Wreck-It Ralph is ahead of Happy Feet 2 and Megamind at this stage, however, both Happy Feet 2 and Megamind had Christmas holidays included in their weekends yet Wreck-It Ralph will not. Also, Wreck-It Ralph had week long sneaks to dilute its opening day.I see Wreck-It Ralph making at least 1.5m with an outside shot at 2m depending on how great WOM is.

[Bluebomb]

CZ12 is up more than 100% from 1911 on opening day. And 1911 had a typhoon holiday to boost admissions. It will be Jackie Chan's largest opening in 2 years -- where he had the starring role, not a supporting one.

[Bluebomb]

Introducing...the top 10 admissions for the first time!

Pre-sales

	Thursday adm.	(so far)		December 20
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Twilight: Breaking Dawn Part 2	--	14,846	--
2	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey	8,719	4,502	-48.4%
3	CZ12	--	2,214	--
4	Wreck-It Ralph	--	2,061	--
5	Jack Reacher	--	1,872	--
6	Life of Pi	1,547	1,057	-31.7%
7	My Sassy Hubby	1,267	640	-49.5%
8	Penance Part 2	--	239	--
9	Bunny Drop	--	180	--
10	Penance Part 1	--	118	--

Final

	Thursday			December 20
Rank	Title	LW (adm.)	TW (adm.)	% chg (adm.)
1	Twilight: Breaking Dawn Part 2	--	32,222	--
2	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey	18,440	10,728	-41.8%
3	CZ12	--	10,043	--
4	Jack Reacher	--	8,167	--
5	Wreck-It Ralph	--	6,050	--
6	Life of Pi	5,142	3,521	-31.5%
7	My Sassy Hubby	7,664	3,280	-57.2%
8	Bunny Drop	--	506	--
9	Cold War	1,658	479	-71.1%
10	A Ghost of A Chance	--	343	--

Acceptable for Breaking Dawn Part 2. Its opening day multiplier was 2.17. While opening day was in line with the previous Twilight films, Twilight is known for not gaining much through the period. I still think it will miss 1m although it shouldn't be by too much. Not bad for The Hobbit. Despite Breaking Dawn 2 having a 3:1 advantage in admissions, the gap in gross won't be that big. Maybe only $50,000 separation between the two. The Hobbit will continue to close the gap from last weekend and it should increase on Sunday, possibly Saturday as well. The Hobbit should be able to pass Twilight on Friday and then it should start to pull away on Saturday and Sunday. CZ12 is the first Jackie Chan film in 2 years to begin with 10,000 admissions on opening day. Reviews are horrible but that won't stop it from becoming the first Jackie Chan film in 2 years to make over $200,000 on opening weekend. Jack Reacher opened very poorly. It didn't even make half of Knight and Day's OD. Early reviews are fantastic though so this might be able to play well during the holiday season. Wreck-It Ralph opened very well. There's a slight chance it could gross over $500,000 for the 4-day. Life of Pi was very solid. I'm not calling 5m until I see Saturday first. Life of Pi will get clobbered by Les Mis sneaks so it's possible that it will have great holds on Thursday and Friday before nosediving on Saturday and Sunday. My Sassy Hubby's honeymoon is over. It won't get to 1.5m. Bunny Drop did pretty well despite only playing in 2 theaters. Cold War is eroding quickly. It will probably leave theaters next weekend. A Ghost of A Chance is holding on tight. Not bad.

Early Saturday Pre-sales

Les Misérables will be making its HK debut on Saturday. Most theaters will show sneaks on Saturday, Sunday and Monday before moving to a fuller release on Tuesday. Heck, some theaters have already given Les Mis full day showtimes due to extremely strong pre-selling. #1 is not of the question on Saturday and Sunday.

Twilight: Breaking Dawn Part 2 is still doing well with pre-sales but its not as robust as opening day. While theaters have rewarded it with 2, even 3 screens, it likely won't match the screens given because of frontloading.

The Hobbit is looking very strong on Saturday and Sunday. It's been doing much better than Thursday and Friday. It's also right on Breaking Dawn 2's tail. Some places have The Hobbit nearly tied with BD2 in admissions. When you factor in The Hobbit having double the ticket prices...well, The Hobbit is extremely likely to win over Breaking Dawn Part 2 on Saturday and Sunday.

Wreck-It Ralph will be the #4 contender this weekend. Since its Thursday admissions were strong, theaters have decided to upgrade its screen to a bigger one. This one has an outside chance of $500,000 for the 4-day.

[Bluebomb]

		Thursday Actuals						December 20
LW	TW	Title	Last Thu. (USD)	Thursday (USD)	% chg	Screens	Days	Total
--	1	Twilight: Breaking Dawn Part 2	--	$218,062	--	62	1	$273,534
1	2	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey	$255,235	$124,847	-51.1%	68	8	$2,175,044
--	3	Wreck-It Ralph	--	$64,242	--	56	1	$220,365
--	4	CZ12	--	$63,796	--	43	1	$63,796
--	5	Jack Reacher	--	$55,642	--	32	1	$55,642
3	6	Life of Pi	$45,028	$31,858	-29.2%	33	29	$4,785,641
2	7	My Sassy Hubby	$49,858	$20,320	-59.2%	26	15	$1,085,476
5	8	Cold War	$10,185	$2,901	-71.5%	7	43	$5,450,185
4	9	Back to 1942	$13,245	$2,405	-81.8%	7	15	$332,990
--	10	Bunny Drop	--	$2,388	--	2	1	$2,388

Skyfall	$4,824,501
Due West 3D	$2,474,440
Rurouni Kenshin	$99,989

Breaking Dawn Part 2 beat BD1's opening day by over $33,000 without sneaks. For Twilight, it's an extremely strong opening day. It'll likely hit 1m this weekend for the first time ever. The Hobbit didn't have as strong of a multiplier as opening day. More people went and saw it in 2D yesterday which diluted its 2nd Thursday gross. Wreck-It Ralph had a wonderful opening day. It snuck by CZ12 to vault into 3rd. This is on course for $600,000+ this weekend (+ previews). CZ12, meanwhile, did extremely well considering Jackie Chan's recent spate of flops. It'll be Jackie Chan's biggest film since Shinjuku Incident. It will likely make around $300,000 this weekend. Jack Reacher opened meekly. It might not make half of Knight and Day's opening weekend but reviews are fantastic. Life of Pi held amazingly, however, Les Mis sneaks will affect it on Saturday and Sunday. 5m is almost a lock. My Sassy Hubby collapsed with all the new competition. Looking at a 1.3m finish. 5.5m for Cold War is now an unlikely maybe although it will need a big bump on Christmas to have any sort of chance. Back to 1942 got pounded by CZ12. Bunny Drop opened OK. Unlikely to get much more than $11,500 this weekend.

 

	Friday adm.	(so far)			December 21
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg	QD % chg
1	Twilight: Breaking Dawn Part 2	--	14,579	--	-1.8%
2	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey	10,307	6,431	-37.6%	+42.8%
3	Wreck-It Ralph	--	3,213	--	+55.9%
4	CZ12	--	3,145	--	+42.1%
5	Jack Reacher	--	2,796	--	+49.4%
6	Life of Pi	2,390	1,900	-20.5%	+79.8%
7	My Sassy Hubby	1,712	787	-54.0%	+23.0%
8	Cold War	528	197	-62.7%	--
9	Skyfall	--	151	--	--
10	Penance Part 2	--	150	--	-37.2%

It could have been worse for Breaking Dawn 2. BD1 fell 6% on its opening Friday pre-sales but BD2 is already ahead with only a 2% drop. The Hobbit increased more than I expected. The rest of the top 5 did about what I expected. Life of Pi had a huge jump on Friday due to more favourable showtimes.

[Bluebomb]

	Friday				December 21
Rank	Title	LW (adm.)	TW (adm.)	% chg (adm.)	QD % chg (adm.)
1	Twilight: Breaking Dawn 2	--	35,117	--	+9.0%
2	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey	22,592	14,140	-37.4%	+31.8%
3	CZ12	--	11,740	--	+16.9%
4	Jack Reacher	--	11,045	--	+35.2%
5	Wreck-It Ralph	--	8,811	--	+45.6%
6	Life of Pi	7,328	5,138	-29.9%	+45.9%
7	My Sassy Hubby	8,948	3,520	-60.7%	+7.3%
8	Cold War	2,290	595	-74.0%	+24.2%
9	Back to 1942	--	476	--	--
10	Bunny Drop	--	464	--	-8.3%

Twilight increased?! If you're keeping score, BD1 didn't increase on its 2nd day. OK hold for The Hobbit. CZ12 is having weaker holds because of rancid WOM. Jack Reacher saw a good bump from Thursday. Very good for Wreck-It Ralph. Strong for Life of Pi. My Sassy Hubby continues to drop like a hot potato. Horrible for Cold War. Yikes for Back to 1942. Bunny Drop hopped down 8% on Friday. Not great news.

 

[Olive]

Ralph is so strong, why not give it more screens?

[Bluebomb]

Ralph is so strong, why not give it more screens?

A few reasons. First, because of ROTG bombing. ROTG had a decent # of showtimes and after almost all were empty, theaters were reluctant to schedule WIR. Now, WIR is doing well in the afternoon and at night so they are playing catch up this weekend.But there is also Breaking Dawn 2/The Hobbit and Les Mis to consider this weekend. Those are still playing better than Wreck-It Ralph so WIR is the 3rd or 4th biggest choice for theaters. And some theater chains scheduled the whole week (up to Dec. 26) a few days ago so they're using data from sneaks/opening day to schedule Christmas holidays. WIR should have one of the best holds next weekend though. It has no competition till Hotel Transylvania on Chinese New Year (and HT isn't big competition anyways).

[Bluebomb]

	Saturday adm.	(so far)			December 22
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg	QD % chg
1	Twilight: Breaking Dawn 2	5,282	17,618	+233.5%	+20.8%
2	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey	16,202	10,326	-36.3%	+60.6%
3	Les Misérables	--	6,815	--	--
4	Wreck-It Ralph	1,583	5,795	+266.1%	+80.4%
5	CZ12	--	4,315	--	+37.2%
6	Jack Reacher	--	4,045	--	+44.7%
7	Life of Pi	4,341	2,842	-34.5%	+49.6%
8	My Sassy Hubby	2,310	798	-65.5%	+1.4%
9	Cold War	--	334	--	+69.5%
10	Bunny Drop	--	250	--	--

BD2 will have a slight increase today but Hobbit will win. Les Mis opened well.

 

Edited December 22, 2012 by Bluebomb

[Bluebomb]

	Saturday				December 22
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg	QD % chg
1	Twilight: Breaking Dawn 2	6,292	38,914	+518.5%	+10.8%
2	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey	34,430	19,775	-42.6%	+39.9%
3	CZ12	--	15,762	--	+34.3%
4	Wreck-It Ralph	4,235	13,737	+224.4%	+55.9%
5	Jack Reacher	--	13,136	--	+18.9%
6	Les Misérables	--	12,301	--	--
7	Life of Pi	11,919	5,729	-51.9%	+11.5%
8	My Sassy Hubby	11,604	3,346	-71.2%	-4.9%
9	Cold War	--	793	--	+33.3%
10	Bunny Drop	--	695	--	+49.8%

Twilight is driving me nuts. Look below.

	Daily admissions (OW)
	Sneaks	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday	Total
Twilight: Breaking Dawn 2	6292	32222	35117	38914	?	112545
Twilight: Breaking Dawn 1		34290	32989	51869	42343	161491
Gap	6292	4224	6352	-6603	-48946

BD2 will most likely start with less admissions than BD1 yet will have a much bigger gross than it? Are admissions being under-reported again? I don't understand at all.

The Hobbit didn't increase by much but almost every film had a tough time increasing today. CZ12 is doing surprisingly well. I don't know where this 2nd wind is coming from but that is a weird turnaround from Friday. Great for Wreck-It Ralph. Jack Reacher didn't gain much and it lost ground on CZ12. Les Mis had an excellent start. That number translates to about $100,000 for its unofficial opening day. It's getting rave reviews and it sits at a pristine 100% from HK moviegoers. I think 2m will be achieved. Life of Pi had a great hold considering the screen/showtime loss and 5m is now assured. My Sassy Hubby was the only film to decline from Friday. Yikes. Will Cold War make it to 5.5m? Still a maybe. It'll all depend on EDKO. They could cut it completely or be extra generous and leave it with one or 2 showtimes so that it'll crawl to 5.5m. Bunny Drop had the 2nd biggest rise but that looks to be a correction for Friday's loss.

	Weekend Projections			December 20
Rank	Title	TW	% chg	Total
1	Twilight: Breaking Dawn 2	$920,000	+1672.7%	$975,000
2	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey	$805,000	-46.0%	$2,855,000
3	Wreck-It Ralph	$470,000	+301.3%	$625,000
4	CZ12	$350,000		$350,000
5	Jack Reacher	$340,000		$340,000

Depending on how Sunday goes, weekend estimates could see major revisions. BD2 will hit #1 but it will just barely eke past BD1's OW gross. 1m could still happen but it needs to increase on Sunday. The Hobbit majorly disappointed this week. It'll likely make 6m and then leave theaters which is about half of what I was expecting. Wreck-It Ralph did great. It will nearly double Rise of the Guardians' total on opening weekend. CZ12 did surprisingly OK. It will triple 1911's opening weekend. Jack Reacher was unreachable this weekend. A yucky start. Even though its opening weekend is terrible, 100% of users have given this the thumbs up so we could see some great legs develop.

 

[Bluebomb]

	Sunday adm.	(so far)			December 23
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg	QD % chg
1	Twilight: Breaking Dawn 2	--	16,316	--	-7.4%
2	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey	16,525	11,304	-31.6%	+9.5%
3	Wreck-It Ralph	2,473	8,832	+257.1%	+52.4%
4	Les Misérables	--	7,046	--	+3.4%
5	CZ12	--	6,294	--	+45.9%
6	Jack Reacher	--	5,261	--	+30.1%
7	Life of Pi	5,382	3,660	-32.0%	+28.8%
8	My Sassy Hubby	2,828	1,184	-58.1%	+48.4%
9	Cold War	--	553	--	+65.6%
10	Bunny Drop	--	292	--	+16.8%

Wow for Twilight. After the pretty good Friday and OK Saturday, Sunday is looking bad. Down 7% from Saturday pre-sales. Eek. Not a great increase for The Hobbit. #1 is gone. Wreck-It Ralph has impressed the entire weekend. It's the only film in the top 8 to see a bump over 50%. Les Mis did not see a huge bump because it's the 2nd day of sneaks. CZ12 must have Mainlander effect going on. These weekend increases seem to be more Mainlander-driven due to its extremely weak Friday increase. Jack Reacher is doing alright although it should be behind CZ12 this weekend. Life of Pi is holding on even with huge screen loss. That is slightly better for My Sassy Hubby but weekend has been a total disaster. Cold War is trying to climb back and at least salvage a 5.5m total. Seeing it have the biggest increase of the top 10 could mean just that. Not great for Bunny Drop.

 

[Bluebomb]

	Sunday				December 23
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg	QD % chg
1	Twilight: Breaking Dawn 2	--	35,164	--	-9.6%
2	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey	32,628	19,895	-39.0%	+0.6%
3	CZ12	--	18,404	--	+16.8%
4	Wreck-It Ralph	6,578	17,817	+170.9%	+29.7%
5	Jack Reacher	--	14,401	--	+9.6%
6	Les Misérables	--	12,995	--	+5.6%
7	Life of Pi	12,277	6,130	-50.1%	+7.0%
8	My Sassy Hubby	11,903	3,458	-70.9%	+3.3%
9	Cold War	2,270	1,090	-52.0%	+37.5%
10	Bunny Drop	--	619	--	-10.9%

Twilight fell 10% on Sunday, one of the worst daily holds I've ever seen for the franchise. Hobbit limping up only 1% on Sunday is a disaster. I thought it would bump up 10-20%. Hobbit has been having terrible walk-ups the last 2 days, not even reaching a 2x multiplier on either Saturday or Sunday. CZ12 had another solid increase although WOM should start to affect it really soon. Wreck-It Ralph remains the standout film of any wide release. It's the only film in the top 10 that increased at least 30% each day this weekend. WOM is exceptional and reviews are better than Ice Age 4 or Madagascar 3. It is looking at a 1m week (not including sneaks). Good for Jack Reacher. While CZ12 may have exploded the last 2 days, I fully expect Jack Reacher to play through the holidays and into the new year. Reviews are stellar and it's the only film to have a 100% approval rating from users. Les Misérables inched up 6% but that is a deceiving increase. Saturday was its first day of public previews so naturally, its "opening day" would be slightly inflated. Les Mis will do well through the holidays. Not only is this musical perfect for a cold winter day but it's also received numerous accolades and public adoration up till this point. The musical only has itself in the marketplace and the combined starpower in the movie will draw people in. I still see a 2m gross in the future. Life of Pi did very well to come back from its showtime loss. 5m will happen on Christmas Eve or Christmas Day. My Sassy Hubby struggled the entire weekend. It is likely gone from theaters next weekend. Cold War is coming back with a vengeance. 5.5m will probably happen. Bunny Drop had another bad hold.

	Weekend adm.			Dec 20-23
Rank	Title	LW	TW	% chg
1	Twilight: Breaking Dawn 2	6,292	141,417	+2147.6%
2	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey	108,090	64,538	-40.3%
3	CZ12	--	55,949	--
4	Jack Reacher	--	46,749	--
5	Wreck-It Ralph	10,813	46,415	+329.3%
6	Les Misérables	--	25,296	--
7	Life of Pi	36,666	20,518	-44.0%
8	My Sassy Hubby	40,119	13,604	-66.1%
9	Cold War	--	2,957	--
10	Bunny Drop	--	2,121	--

	Daily admissions (OW)
	Sneaks	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday	Total
Twilight: Breaking Dawn 2	6292	32222	35117	38914	35164	147709
Twilight: Breaking Dawn 1		34290	32989	51869	42343	161491
Gap	6292	4224	6352	-6603	-13782

	Weekend Estimates			December 20
Rank	Title	TW	% chg	Total
1	Twilight: Breaking Dawn 2	$915,000	+1663.6%	$970,000
2	The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey	$795,000	-46.6%	$2,845,000
3	Wreck-It Ralph	$485,000	+310.9%	$640,000
4	CZ12	$360,000		$360,000
5	Jack Reacher	$340,000		$340,000

Nothing much to say except BD2 is #1, albeit not because of its own extraordinary business.

Christmas Eve, Christmas and [boxing Day] pre-sales

Les Mis is doing very well. Showings are about 75% almost everywhere. Breaking Dawn 2 is slowly declining. Christmas could even see another decline in admissions like BD1. The Hobbit is seeing high pre-sales but walk-ins remains a huge problem. Wreck-It Ralph is doing wonderfully. It has even done better than Breaking Dawn 2 and The Hobbit in a couple of places.

 

Edited December 24, 2012 by Bluebomb

[Bluebomb]

All of the major releases are finding it difficult to rise on Christmas Eve. None of the top 6 have increased from their Sunday admissions yet.The only 2 in the top 10 that have done the job so far are Life of Pi and Bunny Drop.