Hong Kong Hong Kong Box Office

[TigerPaw]

6 hours ago, Bluebomb said:

Yes. Even the Thursday pre-sales number looked really low. I said Ip Man 3 would start at 35,000 or above but it came in much lower and behind Star Wars, which is not right since Ip Man 3 had much faster pre-selling than Star Wars.

 

Showtimes weren't all packed before 4pm. A lot of them did not even sell out till about an hour in advance of the showtime. You should tell them that the admissions site is not reporting Ip Man 3's number accurately and that we won't know till actuals come in on Monday.

Argh! Thanks for the head up! That's great to know! =) 

Despite beating Star Wars in Admissions, I would assume due to large differences in ticket prices eg: 3D/IMAX... Ip Man 3 will probably not be at the top spot in terms of Box Office Gross this weekend right?

[Bluebomb]

7 hours ago, TigerPaw said:

Argh! Thanks for the head up! That's great to know! =) 

Despite beating Star Wars in Admissions, I would assume due to large differences in ticket prices eg: 3D/IMAX... Ip Man 3 will probably not be at the top spot in terms of Box Office Gross this weekend right?

It depends on how you look at it. If it's just the 4-day weekend then no but when you include Ip Man 3's previews, then there's a chance that Ip Man 3 will 'win' this weekend.

 

Thursday estimates

1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens - $593,470 (-17.3%)/$5,418,643 (36,500 admissions on about 440 showtimes, avg 83 per showing; 3D share 66%, 45 theaters playing)
2. Ip Man 3 - $399,947/$1,019,221 (Previews: $619,274; 39,500 admissions on almost 300 showings, avg 135 per showing; 42 theaters playing)
3. The Peanuts Movie - $174,170/$574,118 (Previews: $399,948; 13,500 admissions; avg 66 per showing from more than 200 showings)
4. The Little Prince - ($145,000)/$296,735 (Previews included; avg. more than 75 per showing, lower 3D share than Peanuts Movie, more than 180 showtimes)
5. Anniversary (previews) - $96,761/$193,522
6. Yo-Kai Watch - $64,507 (6,200 admissions on 110 showtimes from 29 theaters; avg 55 per showing)

This is interesting. I just calculated how much Star Wars is benefiting from IMAX and it's significant. They are showing Star Wars 7 times a day during the holidays which times that by 4 IMAX theaters and by an average of 300 seats per theater, that is a staggering 8,400 admissions that Ip Man 3 does not have access to. Include outlier theaters like Palace IFC/Pacific Place and Cyberport where they are deliberately limiting showtimes for Ip Man 3 and that figure increases to about 13,000-14,000. That means that from those 7 theaters alone, Star Wars has at least a 13,000 seat advantage against Ip Man 3. Hateful 8...meet the Vengeful 7. I think I truly underestimated how much those 7 skew in favor of Star Wars 7 when nearly every other theater is reporting more business for Ip Man 3 and in some cases, doubling Star War 7 admits.

Anyway, the skew for Star Wars is ridiculous. Only 36.5k admits and nearly $600,000 in gross. Geez. Ip Man 3 won the day in admissions but that Thursday number looks a little low. Previews look very high too. That is pretty good for The Peanuts Movie despite the competition. HK will probably be one of Peanuts' biggest Asian territories. The Little Prince did very well too despite the source material being foreign but there's been huge promotion from EDKO so this didn't do all that badly. Theaters going with 2D instead of 3D helped as well.

Anniversary sneaks look very good. Yo-Kai Watch did OK.
 

	Friday				December 25
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Ip Man 3	--	54,982	--	+35.4%
2	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	41,669	54,635	+31.1%	+29.0%
3	The Peanuts Movie	2,286	19,500	+753.0%	+38.2%
4	The Little Prince	--	18,232	--	+17.3%
5	Anniversary	--	12,425	--	+17.2%
6	Yo-Kai Watch	--	9,539	--	+33.4%
7	Initiation Love	812	1,443	+77.7%	+11.3%
8	Burnt	936	993	+6.1%	--
9	Ten Years	--	718	--	-13.7%
10	Keeper of Darkness	1,973	634	-67.9%	-0.6%

Ip Man 3 gets the win on Friday in admissions. The trend this weekend has Ip Man 3 steady while Star Wars 7 seems to be fading gradually. Sunday will be a very big day as Ip Man 3 can secure a weekend victory (including previews) over Star Wars 7 with the holiday officially over and the tide going back to the action flick on a non-holiday. The Peanuts Movie took command of 3rd place today beating The Little Prince. Reception seems to be warm with it delivering the highest marks of the new releases this week. The Little Prince is performing more like a drama than an animated movie. One of the lowest increases of the top 10 on Friday, that does not bode well for the rest of the weekend. Solid for Anniversary. Decent for Yo-Kai Watch.
 

	Saturday adm.	(so far)			December 26
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Ip Man 3	2,213	32,179	+1354.1%	-7.1%
2	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	38,988	31,368	-19.5%	-15.7%
3	The Peanuts Movie	2,326	13,259	+470.0%	-0.5%
4	The Little Prince	1,160	8,931	+669.9%	-26.8%
5	Yo-Kai Watch	--	6,413	--	-15.2%
6	Anniversary	--	5,633	--	-19.7%
7	Ten Years	611	586	-4.1%	-3.0%
8	Burnt	387	529	+36.7%	-19.4%
9	Initiation Love	--	462	--	-34.0%
10	The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2	424	414	-2.4%	-7.2%

Good hold for Ip Man 3 from Friday pre-sales. Most movies fall in 15% range on Boxing Day pre-sales so to fall under 10% is a great sign. Some theaters gave it extra showtimes beginning on Saturday so that might be why it didn't fall all that much from Friday. Eh for Star Wars 7. The drop week-to-week does not look all that good. Great hold for Peanuts. This is resonating well with moviegoers. In stark contrast, terrible for The Little Prince. Peanuts has stolen admissions away from The Little Prince. Standard drops for Yo-Kai Watch and Anniversary.

[Bluebomb]

5 PM Update: Ip Man 3 has passed 50,000 admissions and leads Star Wars 7 by over 5,000 admissions. In the battle of the animated films, The Peanuts Movie is 3,500 admissions ahead of The Little Prince.

[Agafin]

Hello

Please, I would like to, is TFA having great legs here? I have no idea what qualifies as leggy in this market but those drops wk on wk look low.

 

And btw, is there anywhere I can find the list of highest grossing movies in HK?

 

 

[Bluebomb]

6 hours ago, Agafin said:

Hello

Please, I would like to, is TFA having great legs here? I have no idea what qualifies as leggy in this market but those drops wk on wk look low.

 

And btw, is there anywhere I can find the list of highest grossing movies in HK?

 

 

No, its legs have not been good. It has not had one day of walk-ins making up more than 50% of a day's admissions yet signifying that once the rush is over that it will fade quickly.

 

Top 50 Local Movies (up to December 23)

 

1	KUNG FU HUSTLE	2004	$61,278,697
2	SHAOLIN SOCCER	2001	$60,739,847
3	POLICE STORY 4 FIRST STRIKE	1996	$57,518,795
4	RUMBLE IN THE BRONX	1995	$56,912,536
5	INFERRAL AFFAIRS	2002	$55,057,176
6	GOD OF GAMBLERS II	1994	$52,541,028
7	CJ7	2008	$51,440,832
8	JUSTICE, MY FOOT	1992	$49,884,734
9	ALL S WELL END S WELL	1992	$48,992,188
10	LUST, CAUTION	2007	$48,758,480
11	Little Big Master	2015	$46,729,492
12	THUNDERBOLT	1995	$45,647,210
13	MR NICE GUY	1997	$45,420,457
14	Unbeatable	2013	$44,631,344
15	Our Times	2015	$44,507,142
16	FIGHT BACK TO SCHOOL	1991	$43,829,449
17	IP MAN II	2010	$43,313,345
18	Cold War	2012	$42,819,043
19	THE STORM RIDERS	1998	$41,532,235
20	God of Gamblers I: All for the Winner	1990	$41,326,156
21	Golden Chickensss	2014	$41,277,620
22	3D SEX AND ZEN	2011	$41,078,280
23	DRUNKEN MASTER	1994	$40,971,484
24	ROYAL TRAMP	1992	$40,862,831
25	THE GOD OF COOKERY	1996	$40,861,655
26	LOVE ON A DIET	2001	$40,435,886
27	ALL S WELL END S WELL 97	1997	$40,435,675
28	God of Gamblers II: AKA Knight of Gamblers	1991	$40,342,758
29	FLIRTING SCHOLAR	1993	$40,171,804
30	ARMOUR OF GOD II	1991	$39,048,711
31	WHO AM I	1998	$38,852,845
32	TO BE NUMBER ONE	1991	$38,703,363
33	KING OF BEGGARS	1992	$38,622,449
34	INITIAL D	2005	$37,862,364
35	FROM BEIJING WITH LOVE	1994	$37,523,850
36	IT S A WONDERFUL LIFE	1994	$37,367,669
37	EIGHTH HAPPINESS	1988	$37,090,776
38	God of Gamblers II	1990	$37,042,851
39	TREASURE HUNT	1994	$37,033,685
40	LOVE ON DELIVERY	1994	$36,906,730
41	ROYAL TRAMP II	1992	$36,583,964
42	NOW YOU SEE LOVE...NOW YOU DON T	1992	$36,475,536
43	THE MAGIC TOUCH	1992	$36,399,307
44	FORBIDDEN CITY COP	1996	$36,051,899
45	ALL S WELL END S WELL, TOO	1993	$35,481,480
46	AMOUR OF GOD	1987	$35,469,408
47	SIXTY MILLION DOLLAR MAN	1995	$35,236,551
48	NEEDING YOU	2000	$35,214,661
49	72 TENANTS OF PROSPERITY	2010	$34,760,735
50	SWORDSMAN II	1992	$34,462,861

 

Top 50 Foreign Movies

 

1	Avatar	2009	$183,411,471
2	AVENGERS: AGE OF ULTRON	2015	$132,983,949
3	Titanic	1998	$114,939,300
4	Iron Man 3	2013	$106,389,801
5	Transformers : Age of Extinction	2014	$98,196,851
6	Avengers 3D, The	2012	$96,705,670
7	Jurassic World	2015	$96,295,976
8	Toy Story 3	2010	$89,364,118
9	Transformers Dark of the Moon	2011	$84,703,797
10	Dark Knight Rises, The	2012	$80,269,966
11	Minions	2015	$78,403,991
12	Monsters University	2013	$77,372,721
13	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows 2	2011	$76,785,999
14	Inside Out	2015	$66,053,079
15	Amazing Spiderman, The	2012	$61,983,452
16	Jurassic Park	1993	$61,898,795
17	You are the apple of my eye	2012	$61,862,731
18	Furious 7	2015	$59,634,515
19	Batman the Dark Knight	2008	$58,524,393
20	Inception	2010	$58,380,823
21	The Lost World - Jurassic Park	1997	$58,231,885
22	Captain America: The Winter Soldier	2014	$56,552,117
23	Spider Man 3	2007	$55,016,986
24	THE AMAZING SPIDER-MAN 2	2014	$54,687,389
25	Mission Impossible：Rogue Nation	2015	$52,970,115
26	Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix	2007	$52,417,858
27	Interstellar	2014	$51,786,434
28	X-MEN: DAYS OF FUTURE PAST	2014	$50,768,991
29	Ant Man	2015	$50,710,391
30	Independence Day	1996	$49,655,445
31	Transformers Revenge of Fallen	2009	$48,115,274
32	Life of Pi	2012	$47,334,447
33	2012	2009	$47,027,272
34	STAND BY ME: Doraemon 3D	2015	$46,891,675
35	Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire	2005	$46,542,244
36	Speed	1994	$46,430,056
37	Harry Potter and the Half Blood Prince	2009	$45,526,732
38	Pirates of Caribbean On Stranger Tides	2011	$45,506,109
39	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows 1	2010	$44,971,073
40	Men In Black 3	2012	$44,752,201
41	Mission Impossible Ghost Protocol	2011	$44,239,802
42	Alice in Wonderland	2010	$44,105,776
43	Harry Potter and the Sorcerer s Stone	2001	$43,409,950
44	NIGHT AT THE MUSEUM: SECRET OF THE TOMB	2014	$43,386,857
45	World War Z	2013	$42,602,911
46	THE MARTIAN	2015	$42,230,385
47	Pirates of the Caribbean At World s End	2007	$42,067,777
48	Day After Tomorrow, The	2004	$41,630,063
49	Maleficent	2014	$40,855,289
50	Les Miserables	2012	$40,853,051

 

	Saturday				December 26
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Ip Man 3	8,095	55,219	+582.1%	+0.4%
2	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	59,026	48,360	-18.1%	-11.5%
3	The Peanuts Movie	4,533	18,145	+300.3%	-6.9%
4	The Little Prince	2,183	15,244	+598.3%	-16.4%
5	Anniversary	--	12,629	--	+1.6%
6	Yo-Kai Watch	--	8,135	--	-14.7%
7	Initiation Love	1,163	1,140	-2.0%	-21.0%
8	Burnt	1,110	943	-15.0%	-5.0%
9	Ten Years	--	715	--	-0.4%
10	The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2	1,235	660	-46.6%	--

Incredible for Ip Man 3. Of all the releases in the past 5 years that ranked in the top 5 on December 26, only 2 besides Ip Man 3 increased (Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked, Secret Life of Walter Mitty). Neither of them were as big as Ip Man 3. This bodes really well for Ip Man 3 down the stretch because all the films that have dropped less than 10% on December 26 from Christmas have gone onto at least a 3.4x multiplier. This means that for Ip Man 3, 7m is locked and 8m is very likely. At this point, we cannot count out 9m or even 10m. Star Wars 7 dropped hard despite having a holiday sandwiched between a holiday and a rest day. There really is no excuse for Star Wars 7 not to fall more than 10% despite heavy competition from Ip Man 3. Theaters were really pushing for Star Wars 7 this weekend but Ip Man 3 just kept on pouring it on with walk-ins so theaters gave Ip Man 3 slightly more showtimes starting on Saturday.

Star Wars 7 has good pre-selling but its Achilles heel has been walk-ins. I feel like there's a disconnect between the Star Wars watchers and the general audience who will want to watch something last minute. Star Wars is failing to pick up much of that crowd and it still has not had 50% walk-ups on any day since it has been released.

The Peanuts Movie rallied from its Thursday loss to The Little Prince in admissions and has opened up to almost a 3,000 admissions lead over TLP. Peanuts is the highest rated movie of the openers this week so to see it have good legs won't be too surprising. Along with Ip Man 3, this will be expected to finish with 3x its opening weekend, if not more with the hold in admissions today. For The Little Prince, this has been a terrible holiday so far. After its admissions win over The Peanuts Movie on Thursday, it was the weakest film of the top 5 full releases on Thursday and it had the biggest decline on Saturday. It also is the only film from the top 6 that garnered less admissions than its Christmas Eve admissions.

Anniversary might be picking up steam. Strong admissions. Decent for Yo-Kai Watch.
 

	Sunday adm.	(so far)			December 27
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Ip Man 3	2,783	25,324	+810.0%	-21.3%
2	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	41,626	24,812	-40.4%	-20.9%
3	The Peanuts Movie	3,727	11,115	+198.2%	-16.2%
4	The Little Prince	1,688	6,340	+275.6%	-29.0%
5	Yo-Kai Watch	--	4,937	--	-23.0%
6	Anniversary	--	3,391	--	-39.8%
7	Ten Years	562	661	17.6%	+12.8%
8	Burnt	495	408	-17.6%	-22.9%
9	Initiation Love	--	322	--	-30.3%
10	The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2	538	317	-41.1%	-23.4%

Decent for Ip Man 3. Not good for Star Wars but it did have 2 holidays preceding it so the film was going to drop pretty hard on Sunday. I see Ip Man 3 winning by over 10,000 admissions today. Very good for Peanuts. Terrible for The Little Prince. It has gone from being up over 5,000 admissions ahead of Yo-Kai Watch on Christmas Eve to now less than 1,500. Ok for Yo-Kai Watch.
 

	Weekend Projections			December 24
Rank	Movie	TW	% chg	Total
1	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	$2,480,000	-28.1%	$7,305,000
2	Ip Man 3	$2,075,000		$2,520,000
3	The Peanuts Movie	$840,000		$1,240,000
4	The Little Prince	$565,000		$715,000
5	Anniversary	$410,000		$507,000

Not great for Star Wars but it held up better than I expected. That's the good news. The bad news is that for a holdover film to drop almost 25% on this type of weekend configuration is very bad. In 2009, 2 films in the top 10 dropped by more than 35% on this exact weekend configuration and they both saw declines the next weekend over 80%. Star Wars isn't going to reach those heights but it could possibly fall 60-65% next weekend even with New Year's Day falling on a Friday. 10m is unlikely at this point with huge declines expected beginning next weekend. 9m is possible. Ip Man 3 had to battle outside influences and theater politics this weekend but it surpassed almost all expectations. Theaters were really dumb to only put this on 1 screen on Thursday since this is a sequel to 2 pretty well received hits. The marketing campaign was small and scattered and did not help Ip Man 3. Luckily, audiences that saw the film early were receptive and that pushed Ip Man 3 to defeat Star Wars in admissions. In gross, Ip Man 3 will lose the 4-day but if you tack on its previews, it will win. The holds this weekend have been fantastic so far and its future looks extremely bright with not much competition. The Peanuts Movie was in tough with 2 big movies and 2 animated films but it came out the best of the rest to snag #3. 3D prices aside, the film is doing well with users, scoring the highest of the 4 new films. This should make over 3.5m. The Little Prince suffered awful drops this weekend and it looks like it will be on its way out with less than 1.5m total. Anniversary opened to pretty strong sneaks and this will enter next weekend. Early reviews haven't been kind. That could change the course of its box office beginning on New Year's Eve.

[TigerPaw]

@Bluebomb

Do you think Ip Man 3 would have done better if it sticked to its original release date of Feb 04 - 2016, Lunar New Year? The major competition then would be Vegas to Macau 3,  Monkey King 2(which I believe will flop). Non of them would be as powerful as Star Wars. 

I mean comparing total grosses, no. of showtimes, no. of screens. Do you think Lunar New Year would be a better release date? =) Compared to Christmas Eve?

[Bluebomb]

11 hours ago, TigerPaw said:

@Bluebomb

Do you think Ip Man 3 would have done better if it sticked to its original release date of Feb 04 - 2016, Lunar New Year? The major competition then would be Vegas to Macau 3,  Monkey King 2(which I believe will flop). Non of them would be as powerful as Star Wars. 

I mean comparing total grosses, no. of showtimes, no. of screens. Do you think Lunar New Year would be a better release date? =) Compared to Christmas Eve?

It was supposed to come out in January 2016 but if it had moved to February 4, it would have had to deal with those Chinese releases plus The Good Dinosaur and the big one Deadpool. Simply put, there is too much competition on Chinese New Year's and I'd be afraid that it would get lost in the shuffle. If one of those releases is better received then Ip Man 3 then audiences will go to that one. Also not to mention that there would be a swath of fans that will flock to see the latest Marvel movie.

 

The move up to Christmas was a brilliant move by Pegasus. They, like me, saw that Star Wars is not a big franchise and that if the Ip Man movie was any good that it would play very well over the holidays. In the end, Ip Man 3 had nearly identical admissions to Star Wars 7 on opening weekend. That says more about Star Wars not being the blockbuster that everyone thought it would be than Ip Man 3 doing worse than Ip Man 2's admissions because of the interference caused by Star Wars. There's this level of supremacy that everybody exudes when it comes to Star Wars 7 but the reality is that Disney is propping up its grosses big time with huge ticket prices that is unjustified and admissions are dropping/not performing to studio's expectations because of this and apathy in general for this sequel and the franchise.

 

	Sunday				December 27
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Ip Man 3	9,003	49,221	+446.7%	-10.9%
2	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	60,394	37,719	-37.5%	-22.0%
3	The Peanuts Movie	7,176	16,898	+135.5%	-6.9%
4	The Little Prince	2,896	12,632	+336.2%	-17.1%
5	Anniversary	--	10,163	--	-19.5%
6	Yo-Kai Watch	--	6,750	--	-17.0%
7	Initiation Love	1,123	1,002	-10.8%	-12.1%
8	Burnt	1,196	771	-35.5%	-18.2%
9	Ten Years	--	713	--	-0.3%
10	Keeper of Darkness	2,409	547	-77.3%	--

Excellent hold for Ip Man 3. It is in good company with films dropping around the same mark on December 27. Les Miserables and Mission Impossible 4 both fell around this % on December 27 and both went on to at least a 4 multiplier. Star Wars had a terrible hold. It joins Twilight: Breaking Dawn x2 in the club that dropped over 20% from December 26. Both Twilight films went onto less than a 3x multiplier. That admissions number looks even worse when I tell you that Star Wars had 40% of its showtimes in 2D on Sunday, the highest share of 2D showtimes to 3D yet. In gross, Ip Man 3 might have even won Sunday due to Star Wars being switched over to 2D more and more. Strong hold for Peanuts. Awful for The Little Prince. Anniversary had a big drop on Sunday after a surprise increase on December 26.
 

	Daily admissions (OW)
	Previews	Thursday	Friday	Saturday	Sunday	Total
Ip Man 2	15,463	47,608	38,240	74,368	73,483	249,162
Ip Man 3	40,620	40,617	54,982	55,219	49,221	240,659
Gap	25,157	18,166	34,908	15,759	-8,503

It was very close but Ip Man 2 won in admissions over Ip Man 3, however, considering the politics this week, I'd consider this a huge victory for Ip Man 3 due to interference from Star Wars 7.

	Weekend adm.			Dec 24-27
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	% chg
1	Ip Man 3	17,098	200,039	+1070.0%
2	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	201,418	183,056	-9.1%
3	The Peanuts Movie	13,995	68,653	+390.6%
4	The Little Prince	5,285	61,654	+1066.6%
5	Anniversary	--	45,819	--
6	Yo-Kai Watch	--	31,574	--
7	Initiation Love	3,665	4,881	+33.2%

Star Wars admissions hold is very deceiving with 2 holidays falling on Friday/Saturday. You can't ask for a better weekend configuration than that during the Christmas period.
 

	Weekend Estimates			December 24
Rank	Movie	TW	% chg	Total
1	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	$2,480,000	-28.1%	$7,305,000
2	Ip Man 3	$2,090,000		$2,535,000
3	The Peanuts Movie	$845,000		$1,245,000
4	The Little Prince	$570,000		$720,000
5	Anniversary	$415,000		$512,000

Minor adjustments for the bottom 4 of the top 5.

 

[TigerPaw]

8 hours ago, Bluebomb said:

It was supposed to come out in January 2016 but if it had moved to February 4, it would have had to deal with those Chinese releases plus The Good Dinosaur and the big one Deadpool. Simply put, there is too much competition on Chinese New Year's and I'd be afraid that it would get lost in the shuffle. If one of those releases is better received then Ip Man 3 then audiences will go to that one. Also not to mention that there would be a swath of fans that will flock to see the latest Marvel movie.

 

 

 

Thank you for your detailed analysis. I do agree, and that's what I felt. However, last week, Fox has decided to move Deadpool from 4th Feb to 11th Feb 2016 in Malaysia dn Singapore, which is a STUPID movie considering that they will probably earn more at that release date.  I have a feeling it will be a matter of time before they do the same in HK, if it hasn't been announced already. Therefore with Deadpool out of the equation(possibly), CNY will be extremely profitable for most firms, right.

The Good Dinosaur is a good movie and I didn't know its release date will be pushed to Feb next year in HK, what about Alvin and Chipmunks in HK? I heard its around CNY too.
PS: Just wanted to ask about Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon 2, IMDB stated its HK release date is Feb 8, but from my understanding it will only be released in China...(and Netflix in the US). SG, Malaysia and HK will not be showing it in theaters, don't know whether you know anything about this? 

[Bluebomb]

4 hours ago, TigerPaw said:

Thank you for your detailed analysis. I do agree, and that's what I felt. However, last week, Fox has decided to move Deadpool from 4th Feb to 11th Feb 2016 in Malaysia dn Singapore, which is a STUPID movie considering that they will probably earn more at that release date.  I have a feeling it will be a matter of time before they do the same in HK, if it hasn't been announced already. Therefore with Deadpool out of the equation(possibly), CNY will be extremely profitable for most firms, right.

The Good Dinosaur is a good movie and I didn't know its release date will be pushed to Feb next year in HK, what about Alvin and Chipmunks in HK? I heard its around CNY too.
PS: Just wanted to ask about Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon 2, IMDB stated its HK release date is Feb 8, but from my understanding it will only be released in China...(and Netflix in the US). SG, Malaysia and HK will not be showing it in theaters, don't know whether you know anything about this? 

Yep, just checked. Deadpool moved to 2/11. You're right, it's a stupid move. I still wonder if Deadpool will get CNY sneaks though. Alvin and the Chipmunks has moved up to 2/4 in Deadpool's place.

 

Nothing on CTHD 2 here. It might be a China only release for now with a HK/Southeast Asia release to be determined for a later date.

 

Updated Weekend Estimates

1. Star Wars 7 - $7,353,873 (Estimated Sunday revenue: $509,610-$516,061 from 31k admits, Sunday avg. 74 per showing)
2. Ip Man 3 - $2,642,233 (opening weekend estimate with previews included, estimated Sunday revenue: $490,258-$496,708 from 48k admits, Sunday avg. more than 130 per showing)
3. The Peanuts Movie - $1,186,940 (opening weekend estimate with previews included, estimated Sunday revenue: $141,916, 3D share lower on Sunday than Christmas Eve)
4. The Little Prince - $799,894 (opening weekend estimate with previews included)
5. Anniversary - $577,988 (Estimated Sunday revenue: $113,533, Sunday avg. 90 per showing)
6. Yo-Kai Watch - $283,833 (opening weekend estimate, estimated Sunday revenue: $64,507, Sunday avg. 55 per showing)

Ip Man 3 came very close to winning Sunday over Star Wars 7. Ip Man 3's opening weekend came in 53% higher than Ip Man 2's opening weekend despite massive interference from theaters due to Star Wars 7. If Ip Man 3 got another screen, this would have made 3m easily. Peanuts had lower share of 3D on Sunday which is why it was overestimated slightly. The Little Prince saw slightly more 3D on the holidays which is why it jumped by more than $50,000. Very strong for Anniversary.

Early Thursday schedules

Schedules have been posted at most Broadway/AMC locations and a couple of other theaters. At Lux Theatre, one of only 2-3 theaters not showing Ip Man 3 this week, they will cut Star Wars 7 completely in favor of the martial arts drama on New Year's Eve. At Cyberport, one of the 7 theaters that had little to no Ip Man 3 presence last week have moved Ip Man 3 into the biggest or 2nd biggest theater on Thursday, sharing the largest screen with Star Wars 7. Now that the holidays are ending and theaters have some wiggle room from their contractual obligations from Star Wars 7, Ip Man 3 should see a bigger slice of showtimes this week.

Star Wars 7 is moving down to the 2nd or 3rd biggest screen (depending on location) behind Ip Man 3 or Ip Man 3 and Anniversary.

Anniversary will begin on the 2nd biggest screen or the 3rd biggest. The Little Prince will keep their 2nd or 3rd biggest screen and a majority of showtimes on Thursday. Peanuts was not so lucky. It will get cut down to half day screenings.

Joy will be given sparse showtimes at best with most giving it 2 or 3 showtimes on Thursday.

[Bluebomb]

	Monday adm.				December 28
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Ip Man 3	4,800	29,050	+505.2%	-41.0%
2	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	27,159	21,140	-22.2%	-44.0%
3	The Peanuts Movie	3,419	8,917	+160.8%	-47.2%
4	The Little Prince	--	7,380	--	-41.6%
5	Anniversary	--	6,525	--	-35.8%
6	Yo-Kai Watch	--	3,032	--	-55.1%
7	Ten Years	629	855	+35.9%	+19.9%
8	Burnt	814	707	-13.1%	-8.3%
9	Initiation Love	623	393	-36.9%	-60.8%
10	The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2	1,019	373	-63.4%	--

Strong for Ip Man 3. It had the best hold out of the top 4 from Sunday. Star Wars 7 fought back slightly. The drop is still not all that great. Weaker for Peanuts today but it is playing more to the family crowd than The Little Prince. Good for Anniversary.
 

	Tuesday adm.	(so far)			December 29
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	17,946	12,347	-31.2%	--
2	Ip Man 3	1,526	9,469	+520.5%	--
3	The Peanuts Movie	3,071	4,959	+61.5%	--
4	The Little Prince	--	3,251	--	--
5	Yo-Kai Watch	--	1,815	--	--
6	Anniversary	--	1,603	--	--
7	Ten Years	450	772	+71.6%	--
8	Burnt	244	171	-29.9%	--
9	Go Lala Go 2	--	139	--	--
10	Port of Call	197	105	-46.7%	--

Ehhh for Star Wars. Very strong for Ip Man 3. Nice rebound for Peanuts.

 

[TigerPaw]

9 hours ago, Bluebomb said:

Yep, just checked. Deadpool moved to 2/11. You're right, it's a stupid move. I still wonder if Deadpool will get CNY sneaks though. Alvin and the Chipmunks has moved up to 2/4 in Deadpool's place.

 

How much will sneaks affect the box office of other wide release? Next Year's CNY weekend is extremely long, Feb 8th and 9th should be public holidays right?

[Bluebomb]

12 hours ago, TigerPaw said:

How much will sneaks affect the box office of other wide release? Next Year's CNY weekend is extremely long, Feb 8th and 9th should be public holidays right?

February 8-10 are holidays in Hong Kong so combine that with Saturday, Sunday, Deadpool should have 5 days of sneaks. Sneaks don't affect box office of other releases too much. Take 2 weekends ago when Ip Man 3, Anniversary, The Little Prince and Peanuts Movie all had sneaks against Star Wars OW. Star Wars still had plenty of seats left to fill.

___________________________________________________________________________________

Ip Man 3 is primed for an increase this weekend. Star Wars 7 is going to drop big. Anniversary is doing very well and even selling tickets faster than Ip Man 3 at a couple of locations so far.

[TigerPaw]

3 hours ago, Bluebomb said:

February 8-10 are holidays in Hong Kong so combine that with Saturday, Sunday, Deadpool should have 5 days of sneaks. Sneaks don't affect box office of other releases too much. Take 2 weekends ago when Ip Man 3, Anniversary, The Little Prince and Peanuts Movie all had sneaks against Star Wars OW. Star Wars still had plenty of seats left to fill.

___________________________________________________________________________________

Ip Man 3 is primed for an increase this weekend. Star Wars 7 is going to drop big. Anniversary is doing very well and even selling tickets faster than Ip Man 3 at a couple of locations so far.

Stupidest move ever by 20th Century Fox. Asian territories, the best release date is Chinese New Year, can't believe they are forgoing 5 days of reaping profits.

What are Anniversary's reviews and ratings like?

[Bluebomb]

1 hour ago, TigerPaw said:

Stupidest move ever by 20th Century Fox. Asian territories, the best release date is Chinese New Year, can't believe they are forgoing 5 days of reaping profits.

What are Anniversary's reviews and ratings like?

Maybe they are scared of spoilers leaking out ahead of Deadpool's US release. I don't know. That's incredibly dumb.

 

Anniversary ratings are mixed with slightly more than half giving it a thumbs up but comments seem to be quite positive with many praising Louis Cheung's performance. Judging from early pre-sales and reviews, reaction seems to be good and should play as a nice counterpart to Ip Man 3 this weekend. We'll know more on Thursday when reviews come in en masse when the film officially opens.

[Bluebomb]

		Weekly Gross (Mon-Sun)							Dec 21-27
LW	TW	Title	Last Week (HKD)	This Week (HKD)	Days in release	% chg	Total (HKD)	This Week (USD)	Total (USD)
1	1	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	$26,645,964	$30,134,633	11	+13.1%	$57,023,022	$3,887,402	$7,356,036
--	2	Ip Man 3	$1,708,559	$18,795,184	4	+1000.1%	$20,503,743	$2,424,600	$2,645,006
3	3	The Peanuts Movie	$1,561,533	$7,638,876	4	+389.2%	$9,229,752	$985,423	$1,190,648
9	4	The Little Prince	$607,461	$5,576,683	4	+818.0%	$6,204,713	$719,398	$800,415
--	5	Anniversary	$27,538	$4,425,406	0	+15970.2%	$4,452,944	$570,882	$574,434
--	6	Yo-Kai Watch	--	$2,202,285	4	--	$2,202,285	$284,097	$284,097
2	7	Keeper of Darkness	$1,613,101	$587,550	32	-63.6%	$17,362,679	$75,794	$2,239,805
--	8	Initiation Love	--	$515,670	18	--	$1,541,369	$66,522	$198,838
6	9	Burnt	$741,068	$472,207	18	-36.3%	$2,429,475	$60,915	$313,405
7	10	The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2	$724,375	$415,799	39	-42.6%	$26,422,055	$53,638	$3,408,475

Don't be fooled by that increase for Star Wars 7. It should have increased by 30-40% this weekend even with the new openers since it had 3 days of holidays (Christmas, December 26 and Sunday) and Christmas Eve which sees pretty good admissions as well. That being said, it is already in the top 25 of all time in 1.5 weeks. Legs will be a huge issue with the holidays coming to an end and its drops increasing every day this week so far. Excellent for Ip Man 3. It is the 2nd highest opening weekend by a local release ever behind Kung Fu Hustle's 3.2m. 7m is locked. The Peanuts Movie also had something to celebrate as well. Peanuts OW is the biggest Blue Sky OW outside of Ice Age 3 & 4 and is the highest animated OW during the Christmas period. The Little Prince did quite well with it being a source material from a foreign language. Awareness was an issue but it had one of the top 5 Christmas animated OW's ever. Anniversary had strong sneak previews. It will have banked $750,000 in previews before its released officially on New Year's Eve. Yo-Kai Watch was the weak link and was pushed aside in favor of Peanuts/The Little Prince.
 

	Tuesday adm.				December 29
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Ip Man 3	9,218	30,564	+231.6%	+5.2%
2	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	33,947	22,527	-33.6%	+6.6%
3	The Peanuts Movie	6,668	10,201	+53.0%	+14.4%
4	The Little Prince	--	8,301	--	+12.5%
5	Anniversary	--	7,423	--	+13.8%
6	Yo-Kai Watch	--	3,048	--	+0.5%
7	Ten Years	715	868	+21.4%	+1.5%
8	Burnt	937	762	-18.7%	+7.8%
9	Initiation Love	--	451	--	+14.8%
10	Port of Call	880	425	-51.7%	--

Good for Ip Man 3. Pretty bad drop for Star Wars despite this Tuesday being in the holiday period still. Decent for Peanuts. Not looking good for The Little Prince. Great for Anniversary. Ouch for Yo-Kai Watch. Superb for Ten Years.
 

	Wednesday adm.	(so far)			December 30
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	17,377	10,291	-40.8%	-16.7%
2	Ip Man 3	2,020	7,400	+266.3%	-21.9%
3	The Peanuts Movie	3,529	4,197	+18.9%	-15.4%
4	The Little Prince	1,163	2,753	+136.7%	-15.3%
5	Anniversary	993	1,473	+48.3%	-8.1%
6	Yo-Kai Watch	--	1,326	--	-26.9%
7	Ten Years	359	825	+129.8%	+6.9%
8	Burnt	212	133	-37.3%	-82.8%
9	Initiation Love	--	128	--	--
10	Go Lala Go 2	--	121	--	-12.9%

41% drop now. Yikes. Harsh drop for Ip Man 3. Ok for Peanuts. Really bad for Little Prince and Yo-Kai Watch. Great for Anniversary. Wow for Ten Years.

Thursday schedules

Sherlock Holmes: An Abominable Bride will premiere on January 2. These schedules below are not going to last through the entire weekend.

Broadway/AMC
 

Hollywood
New	Holdovers	Leaving
Anniversary - 8 showings	Ip Man 3 - 13 showings (▲ 12)	The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2
Joy - 3 showings	The Peanuts Movie (Can.) - 6 showings (=)
	The Little Prince (Can.) - 6 showings (▼ 7)
	Yo-Kai Watch - 2 showings (▼ 3)
	Star Wars: The Force Awakens 3D - 1 showing (▼ 2)
	Star Wars: The Force Awakens - 6 showings (▼ 9)

Anniversary will begin with full day showings on the 2nd biggest screen at 6/7 locations. Joy will start with half day showings at 10 locations. Pre-sales for Anniversary have been very good though not as good as Ip Man 3's. Joy hasn't been doing that well and will see its showtimes cut down on Friday. On Saturday, Sherlock Holmes will begin with 3/4 showtimes at theaters that have already released the entire weekend schedules.

Star Wars 7 will move from 2 screens to 1 or will move into smaller houses with full day showtimes. Early scheduling for Saturday/Sunday sees Star Wars get slashed to 4 or 5 showtimes. Ip Man 3 will remain stable or increase showtimes/screen size especially in last week's pesky theaters like Palace IFC/Cyberport. Most theaters will give it 2 screens. Early scheduling for Saturday/Sunday sees it still get full day showtimes in the biggest screen. The Little Prince will continue to get support from these 2 theater chains. It will have full day showtimes almost everywhere. Peanuts will have a mixed bag. Some will schedule it for the whole day while others will cut it down to half day. Yo-Kai Watch will see showtimes crash to just 2.

UA
 

Cine Moko
New	Holdovers	Leaving
Anniversary - 6 showings	Ip Man 3 - 17 showings (▲ 9)	The Little Prince (3D Can.)
	The Peanuts Movie (3D Can.) - 2 showings (▼ 4)	The Little Prince (Can.)
	The Peanuts Movie (Can.) - 1 showing (▲ 0)	The Little Prince (3D Eng.)
	The Peanuts Movie (3D Eng.) - 1 showing (▲ 0)	Yo-Kai Watch
	Star Wars: The Force Awakens 3D Atmos - 1 showing (▲ 0)
	Star Wars: The Force Awakens 3D - 5 showings (▼ 9)
	Star Wars: The Force Awakens - 2 showings (▲ 0)

Anniversary will start on 3-6 showings at most UA theaters. Pre-sales are quite good. Joy will be on 1 or 2 less UA theaters but will have bigger screens than Anniversary. Ten Years will debut in 2 UA theaters. Pre-sales are fantastic with even midnights getting a lot of action.

After last week's scheduling debacle, Ip Man 3 will run slightly freer this week. Star Wars 7 will still lock down the biggest screen through Jan. 3 but theaters are already starting to feel the itch. One theater took down pre-selling for Star Wars on New Year's Day and gave the night shows on the biggest screen to Ip Man 3 instead. The rest will add another screen to Ip Man 3 to compensate for their big mistake of reserving the biggest screen for Star Wars through the new year. Star Wars, meanwhile, has had pre-selling for this weekend run more than a week now and theaters are reluctant to add anymore showtimes due to slow pre-selling. Some theaters will still add a couple of showtimes but nothing drastic. Peanuts will still have 4-6 showtimes at UA though The Little Prince wasn't so lucky. It will exit some theaters while getting squashed at others. Those that remain will show it once or twice a day. Yo-Kai Watch will leave theaters here.

MCL
 

STAR Cinema
New	Holdovers	Leaving
Anniversary - 6 showings	Ip Man 3 - 11 showings (▲ 9)	The Peanuts Movie (Can.)
The Boy and the Beast (Jap.) - 2 showings	The Peanuts Movie (Eng.) - 6 showings (▲ 4)	The Little Prince (Can.)
The Boy and the Beast (Can.) - 1 showing	The Little Prince (Eng.) - 2 showings (▲ 1)
Joy - 5 showings	Yo-Kai Watch - 5 showings (▼ 8)
	Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Eng.) - 7 showings (▼ 9)

Anniversary will begin on the 3rd or 4th biggest screen here but will have full day showtimes. Joy gets half day showtimes. The Boy and the Beast will play on 2-3 showtimes.

Yo-Kai Watch is still getting major support from this theater chain with it on 5 showtimes almost everywhere before 6 PM. Ip Man 3 will increase showtimes at a couple of locations or will remain steady or lose 1 or showtimes at the remaining theaters. The GRAND will increase Ip Man 3's showtimes on Thursday to 14 then 15 on Friday. Star Wars will get 5-7 showtimes on the 2nd or 3rd biggest screen.

GH
 

Whampoa
New	Holdovers	Leaving
Anniversary - 8 showings	Ip Man 3 - 8 showings (▲ 7)
	The Peanuts Movie (Can.) - 3 showings (▼ 5)
	The Little Prince (Can.) - 3 showings (=)
	Yo-Kai Watch - 2 showings (▼ 4)
	Star Wars: The Force Awakens - 7 showings (▲ 5)

Anniversary will get the biggest screen at GH. Joy gets half day showtimes on the 3rd or 4th biggest screen.

Ip Man 3, Star Wars 7 will remain fairly stable from Wednesday's schedules. Peanuts/The Little Prince will fight behind those 2. Yo-Kai Watch will get some showtimes here.

Newport

Ip Man 3 moves into the biggest theater at all locations with full day showtimes. Anniversary gets the other screen with almost full day showtimes. Star Wars 7 crashes and burns with only 1 showtime (the one that Anniversary does not get). If there's a 3rd screen, Star Wars receives the smallest of the 3.

Independent theaters

Ip Man 3 is on the biggest theaters. At Ip Man 3's home turf, it gets 29 showtimes. Paris London Milano New York theater will still push Ip Man 3 on almost 2 screens. Anniversary gets 1 screen at Paris. Star Wars gets almost 1 screen. The rest will be dispersed among Peanuts/Little Prince/Yo Kai Watch. At Metroplex, Ip Man 3 gets the biggest screen over Star Wars. Anniversary gets full day showtimes. Star Wars is still playing well here with about 15 showtimes.

[Bluebomb]

There will be sneaks scattered around town this weekend with Concussion, Secret in their Eyes, Steve Jobs getting the most play.

New Year's Eve pre-sales at Palace APM for the expected top 3
 

Palace APM
	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	(all v.)				Ip Man 3					Anniversary
Day	Time	Seats sold	Seats available	% filled	Day	Time	Seats sold	Seats available	% filled	Day	Time	Seats sold	Seats available	% filled
Dec. 31	9:05 AM	33	98	33.67%	Dec. 31	9:15 AM	43	167	25.75%	Dec. 31	11:20 AM	27	167	16.17%
	11:00 AM	32	114	28.07%		10:40 AM	42	286	14.69%		1:25 PM	6	167	3.59%
	1:25 PM	16	98	16.33%		2:30 PM	38	286	13.29%		3:30 PM	37	167	22.16%
	3:55 PM	31	98	31.63%		3:55 PM	10	98	10.20%		5:35 PM	63	167	37.72%
	5:30 PM	33	114	28.95%		4:30 PM	42	286	14.69%		7:40 PM	97	167	58.08%
	7:50 PM	68	112	60.71%		5:55 PM	13	98	13.27%		9:45 PM	115	167	68.86%
	10:00 PM	42	114	36.84%		6:30 PM	81	286	28.32%		11:55 PM	12	167	7.19%
						7:55 PM	45	98	45.92%
						8:30 PM	166	286	58.04%
						9:55 PM	56	98	57.14%
						10:35 PM	103	286	36.01%
						12:35 AM	37	286	12.94%
Total		255	748	34.09%	Total		676	2561	26.40%	Total		357	1169	30.54%

Drops from Christmas Eve pre-sales: -43.5% Star Wars 7, -35% for Ip Man 3.

Decent for Ip Man 3 though that drop is slightly concerning. Star Wars 7's drop is troublesome given that Saturday will drop like a rock from last Saturday's admissions. It still has not hit 50% walk-ins in final admissions on any dey yet which is very worrisome for this week. Pretty good or Anniversary but usually these movies are very frontloaded so it'll be interesting to see how this holds up once Sherlock enters on Saturday.

[Bluebomb]

	Wednesday adm.				December 30
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Ip Man 3	9,504	25,092	+164.0%	-17.9%
2	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	29,715	18,751	-36.9%	-16.8%
3	The Peanuts Movie	7,046	8,267	+17.3%	-19.0%
4	Anniversary	2,937	6,991	+138.0%	-5.8%
5	The Little Prince	3,004	6,932	+130.8%	-16.5%
6	Yo-Kai Watch	--	2,541	--	-16.6%
7	Ten Years	705	871	+23.5%	+0.3%
8	Burnt	725	646	-10.9%	-15.2%
9	Initiation Love	679	415	-38.9%	-8.0%
10	The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2	854	400	-53.2%	--

Drops from Monday admissions:
The Little Prince -6%
Peanuts Movie -7%
Star Wars 7 -11%
Ip Man 3 -14%

Not good for Ip Man 3. It is down 4,000 admissions from Monday. Star Wars 7 might have had a resurgence on Wednesday due to a handful of places cutting its showtimes significantly on Thursday. Harsh for Peanuts. The Little Prince is closing the gap from about 1,600 on Monday to 1,300 on Wednesday. Excellent for Anniversary. Terrible for Yo-Kai Watch. Great for Ten Years.
 

	Thursday adm.	(so far)			December 31
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Ip Man 3	28,064	19,305	-31.2%	+160.9%
2	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	28,227	13,883	-50.8%	+34.9%
3	Anniversary	7,412	9,937	+34.1%	+574.6%
4	The Peanuts Movie	10,089	5,909	-41.4%	+40.8%
5	Joy	--	5,275	--	--
6	The Little Prince	11,079	4,832	-56.4%	+75.5%
7	Yo-Kai Watch	5,629	1,286	-77.2%	-3.0%
8	Ten Years	647	1,087	+68.0%	+31.8%
9	Initiation Love	743	402	-45.9%	+214.1%
10	Burnt	288	254	-11.8%	+91.0%

Very good for Ip Man 3. It should be able to increase from Christmas Eve in admissions. Bad for Star Wars. Only a 35% increase from Wednesday's pre-sales and the 2nd weakest increase of the top 10 from yesterday's pre-sales. It is aiming for 23-24k today. Good for Anniversary though heavy pre-sales are limited to night time shows. There are still plenty of seats available in the afternoon. Decent hold for Peanuts though the trend the last few days is concerning. Now the gap between it and The Little Prince is down to 1,100 admissions. There was no joy on New Year's Eve for Joy. Its opening day pre-sale admissions were the lowest of any wide release opener the past 2 weeks. Troubling for The Little Prince. Abysmal for Yo-Kai Watch, the only holdover in the top 10 to decrease from Wednesday's pre-sales. Excellent for Ten Years.

Drops for all holdovers will increase on Saturday/Sunday with the holiday period winding down.

[#ED]

So how much has SW grossed in USD?

[Bluebomb]

10 hours ago, #ED2-D2 said:

So how much has SW grossed in USD?

It's been posted above. Figures are accurate with them coming directly from HK MPIA unlike The-Numbers and Mojo's inflated numbers.

[Bluebomb]

4 PM Update: Ip Man 3 is well out in front with 33k admissions. It will increase from last Thursday's opening day admissions. Star Wars 7 is just below 21,000 right now and is looking at 23-25k for today. Anniversary has been behind Star Wars 7 all day and is looking at about 20,000 admissions for the day barring a last minute rush tonight. Mixed reviews have come in so far with Anniversary sitting at 3.6/5 from 31 reviews. In the battle of animated films, Peanuts is closing in on 10k while The Little Prince is nearing 8,500. Peanuts is looking at 11-12k today while The Little Prince is aiming for 10-10.5k. Joy has really struggled during the day, falling behind The Little Prince. It is going for 10k admissions as well. Reviews are good with a 4.1/5 so far.