Hong Kong Hong Kong Box Office

[Bluebomb]

March 22 Weekend/Total Actuals

1 Nightfall - $1,618,699

2 The Hunger Games - $720,359 (weekend actual)

3 A Simple Life - $2,822,810

4 John Carter - $1,845,239

5 The Iron Lady - $666,783

6 Jack and Jill - $71,084 (weekend actual)

7 Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy - $106,159

8 Love Lifting - $47,976/64,832 (weekend actual)

9 Love Strikes - $78,899

10 The Second Woman - $26,383 (weekend actual)

[iceroll]

How is that for THG? Where will it end up?

[Bluebomb]

How is that for THG? Where will it end up?

Decent opening. It will end up somewhere between 1.6-1.8m depending on how well Titanic, Mirror Mirror, Lorax and Battleship do. It might end up in the top 30 for the year, maybe top 40 if box office continues to be this strong throughout summer and into winter.

[Bluebomb]

Thursday admissions so far (March 29)

1. Love in the Buff - 7,994

2. Wrath of the Titans 3D - 3,690

3. The Hunger Games 2,345 (-52.3%)

4. A Simple Life - 1,811 (-53.0%)

5. Nightfall - 1,154 (-69.6%)

Love in the Buff admissions will go up quickly with walk-ins. Not good for Wrath of the Titans at all. The Hunger Games's drop is OK. A Simple Life fell decently considering the loss of showtimes. Harsh drop for Nightfall but walk-ins will push it past A Simple Life today and most likely tomorrow.

[A Marvel Fanboy]

Ouch for Titans. That number is a disaster for this scale and kind flick.

[Bluebomb]

It's not going to make half of COTT's final gross.

[Bluebomb]

Honourable mention - Rise of the Planet of the Apes

Rise of the Planet of the Apes had a couple of uncertainties leading up to its release but all of that got flattened as Apes posted a $1.05m opening weekend, beating out Cars 2 on the traditional 4-day weekend. It held well in its 2nd weekend before succumbing to the weight of all the competition in the following 3 weekends and walked away with 3.07m total.

6. Overheard 2

Released: August 18

OW - $889,778

Total - $3,092,131 (3.48 multiplier)

Like many local crime dramas before it, Overheard 2 was the quintessential film. It had recognizable actors, action, high stakes drama and a suitable soundtrack accompanying the movie. What propelled it to new heights was great word of mouth that sustained its grip over the HK box office in its first 4 weeks of release. After the disappointment of the first Overheard, many were concerned that Overheard 2 would either be a rehash of the original or experience an even worse dip in quality. Their concerns would soon turn into anticipation as positive reviews rolled in and declared this better than the first one.

Slipping into the August 18 release date, it was the first of its kind for months and it powered ahead on opening weekend, taking in more than the other two openers, Larry Crowne and Final Destination 5, combined. In admissions, this took control on Thursday, storming to #1 with an average 18,374 admissions. WOM started to seep through as Friday bounced back with a 44% increase to lead all releases with a solid 26,363 admissions number. Saturday nearly doubled Friday's number as it took advantage of the great WOM and weekend and it pounced, shooting up 94% to 51,196 admissions, one of the best Saturday % increases of the 2011 summer. That wouldn't even be the highlight of its weekend as it slithered up another 9% on Sunday to finish off the weekend with 55,552 admissions and a whopping 151,485 in admissions over the 4-day weekend. That admissions number translated to $889,778 for the 4-day weekend. Its opening weekend beat the likes of other recent fellow local dramas by a big margin including The Beast Stalker, The Stool Pigeon and the first Overheard. Overheard 2 increased from the first Overheard by 30% and made more than $200,000 extra than its predecessor opening weekend.

2nd weekend brought the release of the sci-fi Western Cowboys & Aliens and 5 other releases. When Cowboys & Aliens release date was first announced, there was much anticipation but interest started to wane in the weeks leading up to its opening day. That set the stage for Overheard 2 to deliver a good hold and it did just that. It fell 37% on its 2nd Thursday and fell 28% for the weekend to an outstanding 1.94m in 11 days. It would pass the first Overheard and 2m by the end of week 2, making it the biggest local crime drama in the past 3 years.

Its 3rd weekend saw kids go back to school but its drop remained steady declined only 35%. By contrast, The Stool Pigeon fluttered away 58%, The Beast Stalker 60% and Overheard 49% on their 3rd weekends respectively. It cruised to its 3rd weekend on top with a magnificent $416,066 for a 2.6m total.

4th weekend threw a wrench into Overheard 2's quest for a top 10 spot as 6 new openers clamored for screens that week. It performed below par and squandered 65% to put its 3m hopes in jeopardy and a place in the top 10 out of reach.

Things didn't go much better for Overheard 2 in its 5th weekend as it delivered the worst PSA of any film in the top 10 that week and fumbled 59% but one bright spot did happen. It hit its next milestone in 3m and snuck out a 5th week in the top 10.

6th weekend was the end of the road for it as it lost 60% and had the worst PSA of the top 15 but it tiptoed by Rise of the Planet of the Apes in the end.

While most of the damage was done in the first two-thirds of its run, it proved to doubters and critics alike that sequels can make a good run at the box office in the summer. This not only beat Overheard's opening weekend but consistently performed better than it in drops which was definitely not expected. Where most of the local box office faded into the background, this completely ran away and put local films back on the map in a way not many people visualized.

Top 10 Surprises of 2011 Recap (so far)

10. Transformers: Dark of the Moon

9. X-Men: First Class

8. Mr. Popper's Penguins

7. Fast Five

6. Overheard 2

Edited March 29, 2012 by Bluebomb

[Bluebomb]

Love in the Buff is exploding this weekend. It might be able to do 1m OW without previews.

Edited March 29, 2012 by Bluebomb

[Bluebomb]

All schedules updated along with new May schedule posted.

Decent opening for The Hunger Games. Nice hold for Nightfall. Not bad for A Simple Life. John Carter got trampled. Terrible for Jack and Jill. Awful for Love Lifting. The Iron Lady twisted the wrong way. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy had a respectable hold. Horrible for The Second Woman. Weak for Carnage.

Healthy start for Love in the Buff. It is just a little bit behind You Are the Apple of My Eye's opening Thursday admissions. Quite good for The Hunger Games. Poor for Wrath of the Titans although I can't help but feel that its admissions are being under-reported like John Carter. Decent for A Simple Life. Sizable drop for Nightfall.

April should be a very profitable month. We'll have 3 weekends where total grosses should be over 2m, maybe all 4 weeks if April 19 turns out to have 1 or 2 shockers.

April begins with Easter weekend and this year, there's going to be some serious money-making. April 4, 6, 8 and 9 are all public holidays so grosses are expected to pull in amazing business over the week. With the Ching Ming Festival on April 4, studios have offered to release some movies on April 4 (Titanic and Pleasant Goat and Big Bad Wolf 4) while others are offering special night previews (Mirror Mirror) so all movies will probably have some sort of advanced previews on April 4 leaving it with inflated grosses for the "4-day weekend". This week could top 5m total (Tues-Mon). Titanic is going to be the big movie as couples (ladies and their forced significant others) will storm theaters ready to reminisce about Leo back in his younger days. On tap, however, is Mirror Mirror, also ready to do some mega business. Romance movies are trending toward being more popular nowadays especially with the explosion of Apple of My Eye last year. Other offerings like The Soul of Bread and Guilty of Romance will most likely be for a small target audience. The Lorax will play heavily to children as they have been ignored for the past 2 months. Man on a Ledge is hoping to benefit from the action crowd like Source Code last year but that had a more interesting premise than this. Ledge has also been delayed at least twice which doesn't bode well for it. Bollywood hopes to work like 3 Idiots did and start small but gradually increase its earnings.

April 12 will feature Battleship and pretty much nothing else. The April 11 sneaks will beef up its gross for the weekend and it is looking at a weekend of about 1.2m right now. It should be a hit but not a mega blockbuster. I can't help but wonder if Battleship should have moved to Easter here because it will have 4 holidays instead of only 3. The Wednesday holiday along with the Friday-Monday layoff could help its grosses. Right now though, I also think Battleship could get away with having some special screenings Easter weekend. None of this year's films really stand out except Titanic but Titanic is a wildcard. It could easily surprise or flop. Therefore, Battleship having early previews could get people talking before its release. Shame should be a limited release. Sunny will play to a niche audience.

April 19 is the "dead" weekend of the month as distributors and studios look to put their blah films to die. None of them are expected to gross more than $400,000 at this point for the weekend.

The Avengers will mark the territory on April 26. Early predictions seem to have it at 1.8m for OW. First Time, Declaration of War and Thomas & Friends are all counterprogramming. The Avengers will continue to play strongly with the May 1 holiday the next week and no real strong competition until Men in Black III on March 24.

Edited March 30, 2012 by Bluebomb

[Bluebomb]

Good opening for Love in the Buff. It looks headed to over 1m this weekend including previews. It looks like Wrath's opening Thursday admissions were underestimated like John Carter. Its opening Thursday gross doesn't change the fact that it is below average for a 3D film of this magnitude. Wrath is heading to about $600,000-$700,000. Good hold for The Hunger Games. Nightfall nosedived. A Simple Life did decently although weekend drops will be larger. The Grey debuted softly. Love Actually...Sucks did OK on Thursday. Love Lifting declined well. Jack & Jill completely fell apart. The Iron Lady did better than recent Thursday holds.

Weekend will be very interesting to watch as nothing is pulling away. All of the top 5 is experiencing slow pre-sales at different theaters.

[Bluebomb]

Just an ok increase for Love in the Buff. The Hunger Games had an excellent drop. Wrath's Thursday admissions look to be underestimated so I'm assuming these Friday admissions are more in line with its actual admissions. (Only 80% of HK theaters are included.) Nightfall is still posting hefty drops although it did increase a healthy 69% on Friday. A Simple Life is running out of steam. That is its biggest admissions drop on the weekend since it opened.

_______________________________________________________________________

Facts about the top 5 surprises of 2011

- None of them are from the summer. 4/5 films of the bottom tier of the top 10 are summer hits; there are no summer entrants in the top 5.

- Only 2 movies are from Hollywood.

- 2 of the top 5 are 3D releases.

- 4 of the top 5 are huge hits in Hong Kong but may not be everywhere else.

Can you guess the top 5 and in what order?

[lab276]

Sex and Zen Extreme Ecstasy 3D?

[Bluebomb]

Sex and Zen Extreme Ecstasy 3D?

Yes, 1 down. 4 to go.

Explosive opening for Love in the Buff. It not only crushes Wrath of the Titans but surpasses Love in a Puff's total in 4 days (+ sneaks). Wrath of the Titans got sidelined by Buff. If it wasn't facing such tough competition, it would have done a lot better, possibly a 1m start. Interesting to note that Wrath of the Titans has not beaten Clash of the Titans admissions on any given day. Thursday, Friday and Saturday's Wrath admissions have all come in below Clash's admissions on those particular days. The Hunger Games had an exceptional outing. Even though the top 2 combined for more than 1.5m, it only dropped 35%. Good WOM must be spreading. Nightfall took a turn for the worst this weekend. A Simple Life is holding on but interest is dying down.

Titanic sneaks start on April 3. Ticket sales have been selling out quickly in IMAX. Regular theaters are doing fine. The only problem is the running time and theaters do not have that many screens to allocate especially with 9 releases out this weekend.

Edited April 1, 2012 by Bluebomb

[Bluebomb]

April 5 Predictions

[Bluebomb]

April 5 Predictions

Wrath beat The Hunger Games at the finish line in admissions. Love in the Buff had a pretty strong Sunday even though 7,000 admissions disappeared in 1 day. A Simple Life managed to slip by Nightfall, something it also took the finish line to do.

There are no real changes to estimates although that Wrath number may be too low. The Hunger Games had an amazing hold this weekend. It's going to pass 2m with ease now. The Nightfall and A Simple Life battle is going on strong. Nightfall will still have the edge when actuals come in but grosses will be much closer this weekend than they have been the 2 previous weekends.

Wednesday outlook

Love in the Buff is firmly in front. Titanic is doing well with limited showtimes. Mirror Mirror sneaks have been lukewarm. Wrath is doing OK. Hunger Games has done slightly better than Wrath in admissions.

[Bluebomb]

ThursdayEarly theater schedules are seeing big cuts for holdovers. The Hunger Games, Nightfall, A Simple Life are all down to 1 showtime per day at different locations. Wrath of the Titans gets half day showtimes while Love in the Buff is carrying around 2 screens.The openers are posting intriguing results. Mirror Mirror and The Lorax are getting full day and half day showtimes respectively at a number of theaters. Titanic is only getting half day showtimes. Man on a Ledge is showing half day. Brutal scheduling for the holdovers so far.

[Bluebomb]

April, May and blockbuster schedules all updated on first post.

Tuesday watch

Titanic has not made it into the top 5 admissions yet today.

Thursday schedules

No really outstanding debuts expected this week. Theaters seem to be going forward with Buff and Wrath. I am not convinced that Wrath will do normal holiday business. It seems very frontloaded to my eye.

The Hunger Games is losing some theaters and showtimes at Broadway. UA will continue to promote this.

There's no real clear consensus except for Love in the Buff repeating as the top film. Everything else seems to be in a big pack huddled together.

________________________________________________

The Avengers has gotten one of the biggest marketing campaigns ever here. This has been promoted ever since January and no other film has seen that kind of early promotion. It should be able to reach 2m but there are things that concern me about the OW for this film. While marketing has been extremely aggressive, all 4 of the superhero films last year couldn't pass 1.3m OW. Iron Man 2 came up with 1.53m with a 3-day weekend against Ip Man 2 (Battle of the 'Man' sequels). 3D should help it clear 2m OW although superhero movies tend to get stuck in a rut after opening weekend.

One good thing that is helping is that none of the openers after it will be very big including Dark Shadows. I think this could run the table for about a month before Men in Black 3 takes over.

There could be some overlap with Battleship's 3rd weekend but I don't think it will affect it too much. I don't see Battleship making much money as it seems to grab people by hype, explosions and the nametag 'Transformers' and not by WOM. There is a minuscule chance though that Battleship does break out and if that's the case then The Avengers should see OW returns down.

The 1st major contender of the summer arrives April 26.

[Bluebomb]

Weekend actuals1. Love in the Buff - $1,180,7862. Wrath of the Titans - $614,185The Grey - $84,981Holy crap, that is terrible for Wrath.

Edited April 3, 2012 by Bluebomb

[Bluebomb]

Love in the Buff is doing really well. Good increase. Not liking that number for Wrath. Ouch for The Hunger Games. Nightfall is bleeding admissions badly. A Simple Life increased due to the holiday effect.

Love in the Buff could reach 50,000 admissions today. Wrath is continuing to lose admissions by the day here. Not a good sign. Excellent start for Titanic! It'll definitely be frontloaded but this might hit $200,000-$250,000 opening day. Underwhelming for The Hunger Games. Longer action films should do well on holidays. Great showing for A Simple Life.

[RTX]

I don't undertand why 7K for Titanic is considered "wild", but 6K for HG is "underwhelming"?