Hong Kong Hong Kong Box Office

[Bluebomb]

	Thursday adm.	(so far)			July 25
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	The Lion King	--	13,263	--	--
2	Toy Story 4	10,939	5,293	-51.6%	-29.5%
3	Once Upon A Time in Hollywood	--	1,992	--	--
4	The White Storm 2: Drug Lords	5,303	1,981	-62.6%	-42.3%
5	The Confidence Man JP: The Movie	--	958	--	--
6	Spider-Man: Far From Home	1,941	451	-76.8%	-67.3%

Decent for The Lion King. It should be able to get over 35,000 admissions today. Good hold for Toy Story 4. Great for Once Upon A Time in Hollywood. It actually beat The Hateful Eight's opening day admissions with just its pre-sales. Not great for The White Storm 2. Terrible for The Confidence Man JP. A lot of theaters are reporting showtimes nearly empty aside from a handful of showtimes. Disaster for Spider-Man.

 

[Bluebomb]

	Thursday				July 25
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	% chg	QD % chg
1	The Lion King	--	34,670	--	--
2	Toy Story 4	30,895	17,249	-44.2%	-16.6%
3	The White Storm 2: Drug Lords	21,754	8,983	-58.7%	-28.3%
4	Once Upon A Time in Hollywood	--	6,985	--	--
5	The Confidence Man JP: The Movie	--	2,837	--	--
6	Spider-Man: Far From Home	7,101	2,184	-69.2%	-54.4%
7	Crayon Shin-chan: Honeymoon Hurricane	--	1,616	--	-43.7%
8	Parasite	--	727	--	-40.1%
9	Children of the Sea	--	690	--	--
10	Annabelle Comes Home	--	542	--	-48.6%

The Lion King couldn't break through 35,000 admissions. It's still a good opening day though. Opening day reviews are in and its user score sits at an average 3.5/5. If that continues throughout this weekend, this might be worrying for the lions.

Opening day estimate - $375,000

Solid for Toy Story 4. Meh for White Storm 2. Great opening day for Once Upon A Time in Hollywood. Poor opening for Confidence Man JP. Spider-Man was wiped out.
 

	Friday adm.	(so far)			July 26
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	The Lion King	--	13,758	--	+3.7%
2	Toy Story 4	16,392	7,717	-52.9%	+45.8%
3	The White Storm 2: Drug Lords	8,236	2,974	-63.9%	+50.1%
4	Once Upon A Time in Hollywood	--	2,537	--	+27.4%
5	The Confidence Man JP: The Movie	--	1,029	--	+7.4%
6	Spider-Man: Far From Home	2,912	622	-78.6%	+37.9%

Wow. That is a troubling sign for The Lion King. If it decreases on Friday, that would be shocking. All the holdovers saw slightly bigger drops on Friday. Another good hold for Toy Story 4. Ho-hum for White Storm 2. Very nice for Once Upon A Time in Hollywood.

[Bluebomb]

	Friday				July 26
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	The Lion King	--	34,939	--	+0.8%
2	Toy Story 4	40,303	21,322	-47.1%	+23.6%
3	The White Storm 2: Drug Lords	27,364	11,452	-58.1%	+27.5%
4	Once Upon A Time in Hollywood	--	7,900	--	+13.1%
5	The Confidence Man JP: The Movie	--	3,544	--	+24.9%
6	Spider-Man: Far From Home	9,087	2,688	-70.4%	+23.1%
7	Crayon Shin-chan: Honeymoon Hurricane	3,581	1,586	-55.7%	-1.9%
8	Parasite	1,981	1,163	-41.3%	+60.0%
9	Annabelle Comes Home	1,637	651	-60.2%	+20.1%
10	Children of the Sea	--	606	--	-12.2%

The Lion King managed to squeak out an increase within the last 2 hours. User score is still at a very low 3.6/5. Aside from horror films, it is the lowest major release out in theaters right now. Not bad for Toy Story 4. Average for The White Storm 2. Excellent for Once Upon A Time in Hollywood. Not good for Confidence Man JP. Disaster for Spider-Man.
 

	Saturday adm.	(so far)			July 27
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	The Lion King	--	19,129	--	+39.0%
2	Toy Story 4	27,553	10,765	-60.9%	+39.5%
3	The White Storm 2: Drug Lords	12,253	3,531	-71.2%	+18.7%
4	Once Upon A Time in Hollywood	--	3,427	--	+35.1%
5	Spider-Man: Far From Home	3,883	940	-75.8%	+51.1%
6	The Confidence Man JP: The Movie	--	925	--	-10.1%
7	Crayon Shin-chan: Honeymoon Hurricane	1,433	635	-55.7%	--
8	Parasite	642	330	-48.6%	--
9	Children of the Sea	--	172	--	--
10	Little Q	--	156	--	--

Terrible increases all around. The Lion King had a very poor increase for Saturday pre-sales. After only increasing 4% from Thursday's pre-sales on Friday, it really should have went above 60% today. If this doesn't make 2m this weekend after its pretty good opening day, it will be a travesty. Bad hold for Toy Story 4. Ugly holds for White Storm 2 and Spider-Man. The best performer out of the top 5 was Once Upon A Time in Hollywood but its gain wasn't all that great either.

[lab276]

Have the protests affected the box office?

[Bluebomb]

	Saturday				July 27
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	The Lion King	--	51,827	--	+48.3%
2	Toy Story 4	68,045	31,422	-53.8%	+47.4%
3	The White Storm 2: Drug Lords	44,291	15,200	-65.7%	+32.7%
4	Once Upon A Time in Hollywood	--	11,763	--	+48.9%
5	The Confidence Man JP: The Movie	--	4,005	--	+13.0%
6	Spider-Man: Far From Home	13,704	3,563	-74.0%	+32.6%
7	Crayon Shin-chan: Honeymoon Hurricane	4,739	1,902	-59.9%	+19.9%
8	Parasite	3,600	1,696	-52.9%	+45.8%
9	Children of the Sea	--	803	--	+32.5%
10	Aladdin	1,679	745	-55.6%	--

Not one movie increased more than 50% from Friday's admissions. There are several reasons for this but the main reason of the sudden slowdown is the tightening of the belt. People are saving money and going out less so this will affect box office. Many places were virtually empty today. The Lion King having mediocre word of mouth didn't help either. Neither does the ongoing violence, riots and unrest.

After the closure of 8 theaters and 9 theaters being affected in total on Monday, moviegoing returned to normal levels on Tuesday. There's been several weeks of data on how protests affect the box office but I've come to the conclusion that they only dent it minimally.

Today, some theaters had near normal business but most saw muted ticket sales which points to a bigger problem than just riots or protests. Though at the site of today's protests, the IMAX theater in Yuen Long recorded ticket sales of just 43, 17 and 8 (from 5-10 pm) for The Lion King. This is a 409 seater that should be more than 75% full on weekends. Toy Story 4 saw above and beyond last weekend on that screen.

Onto next week where Fast & Furious 8 isn't looking great with early pre-sales either. It comes out in just 4 days and showings are bare at the moment.
 

	Sunday adm.	(so far)			July 28
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	The Lion King	--	20,723	--	+8.3%
2	Toy Story 4	32,982	14,288	-56.7%	+32.7%
3	Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of the Moon Exploration	--	7,952	--	--
4	The White Storm 2: Drug Lords	14,638	4,321	-70.5%	+22.4%
5	Once Upon A Time in Hollywood	--	3,798	--	+10.8%
6	The Confidence Man JP: The Movie	--	1,187	--	+28.3%
7	Spider-Man: Far From Home	3,946	861	-78.2%	-8.4%
8	Crayon Shin-chan: Honeymoon Hurricane	1,767	600	-66.0%	-5.5%
9	Parasite	853	411	-51.8%	+24.5%
10	The Great Detective Sherlock Holmes: The Great Jail-Breaker	--	348	--	--

The Lion King is still in trouble. A 2m opening weekend is most likely out of the question now with those pre-sales unless if it has robust walk-ins today. Holdovers don't look impressive at all although Toy Story 4 has closed the gap in pre-sales from The Lion King to about 6,500. Very good for Doraemon 2019. These are sneak previews and most have only given it 2 showtimes today.

Weekend Projections

1. The Lion King - $1,882,000
2. Toy Story 4 - $1,000,000 (-53.2%)/$9,265,000
3. The White Storm 2: Drug Lords - $500,000 (-72.5%)/$2,625,000
4. Once Upon A Time in Hollywood - $430,000
5. The Confidence Man JP: The Movie - $155,000

 

[Bluebomb]

	Sunday				July 28
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	The Lion King	--	53,539	--	+3.3%
2	Toy Story 4	68,186	36,010	-47.2%	+14.6%
3	The White Storm 2: Drug Lords	42,286	15,712	-62.8%	+3.4%
4	Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of the Moon Exploration	--	12,625	--	--
5	Once Upon A Time in Hollywood	--	11,360	--	-3.4%
6	The Confidence Man JP: The Movie	--	3,862	--	-3.6%
7	Spider-Man: Far From Home	12,028	2,946	-75.5%	-17.3%
8	Crayon Shin-chan: Honeymoon Hurricane	5,799	1,973	-66.0%	+3.7%
9	Parasite	2,974	1,650	-44.5%	-2.7%
10	Children of the Sea	--	956	--	+19.1%

Despite Doraemon 2019 entering the market, the top 3 increased. It's been a very peculiar weekend. Out of this weekend, maybe Thursday is the one day that looked the most normal. Friday usually sees multiple +50% or above increases in pre-sales but now films are struggling to hit even 40%. Saturday's final admissions saw higher daily % increases than its pre-sales! That never happens. Sunday was only a slight correction of Saturday's admissions. The movies that increased weren't really all that impressive.

Weird weekend.
 

	Weekend adm.			Jul 25-28
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	% chg
1	The Lion King	--	174,975	--
2	Toy Story 4	207,429	106,003	-48.9%
3	The White Storm 2: Drug Lords	135,695	51,347	-62.2%
4	Once Upon A Time in Hollywood	--	38,008	--
5	The Confidence Man JP: The Movie	--	14,248	--
6	Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of the Moon Exploration	--	12,625	--
7	Spider-Man: Far From Home	41,920	11,381	-72.9%
8	Crayon Shin-chan: Honeymoon Hurricane	--	7,077	--
9	Parasite	--	5,236	--
10	Children of the Sea	--	3,055	--

The Lion King opens below Toy Story 4's 2nd weekend. Doraemon 2019's Sunday sneaks enter the top 10 at #6.
 

	Weekend Estimates			July 25
Rank	Movie	TW	% chg	Total
1	The Lion King	$1,892,000		$1,892,000
2	Toy Story 4	$1,025,000	-52.0%	$9,290,000
3	The White Storm 2: Drug Lords	$515,000	-71.6%	$2,640,000
4	Once Upon A Time in Hollywood	$440,000		$440,000
5	The Confidence Man JP: The Movie	$128,000		$128,000

Other contenders for the top 5

Spider-Man: Far From Home - $122,000 (-71.8%)/10,730,000
Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of the Moon Exploration - $111,000

Disney will be OK with that number. I suspect they expected a range from $1.5-3m OW for The Lion King. With the way the weekend shaped up after Thursday, it is a massive disappointment but overall, it's not bad.

Toy Story 4 saw a bigger dip with outside influences hindering its potential this weekend but it's a good hold. It's up to #22 all time ahead of Incredibles 2 and will pass 10m and both Monsters University and Minions for #2 animated film of all time next week.

The White Storm 2: Drug Lords saw a mediocre hold but the hold above is comparing this weekend's 4 day vs. last week's 6-day opening weekend.

Once Upon A Time in Hollywood had an excellent opening. It is Quentin Tarantino's highest opening weekend of all time here and it beat both Django Unchained and The Hateful Eight's opening weekends combined.

The Confidence Man JP bombed.

Spider-Man: Far From Home might have actually beaten Confidence Man JP for #5 and is included in the text above. I don't think it will pass Transformers 3 for #13 all time. It's too far away and Fast & Furious 8 should clobber its remaining screens next week.

Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of the Moon Exploration's one day of sneaks has also put it in contention for the top 5, however, one detraction is that most showings were morning showings only which means more admissions but less money made.

[Bluebomb]

	Thursday adm.	(so far)			August 1
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Fast & Furious: Hobbs & Shaw	--	8,716	--	--
2	The Great Detective Sherlock Holmes: The Greatest Jail-Breaker	--	5,576	--	--
3	The Lion King	13,263	3,461	-73.9%	-50.1%
4	Toy Story 4	5,293	2,626	-50.4%	-37.7%
5	Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of the Moon Exploration	--	923	--	-49.3%
6	Once Upon A Time in Hollywood	1,992	759	-61.9%	-40.6%
7	The White Storm 2: Drug Lords	1,981	532	-73.1%	-64.1%
8	The Confidence Man JP: The Movie	958	226	-76.4%	-54.0%
9	Crayon Shin-chan: Honeymoon Hurricane	--	143	--	--
10	Psycho-Pass: Sinners of the System - Case 1	--	139	--	--

Weak opening day pre-sales for the Fast & Furious spinoff. The Great Detective Sherlock Holmes opening day pre-sales seem to be largely concentrated at 2 movie theater chains. 9 AM showtimes are full or nearly sold out at most MCL/Emperor theaters, however, other theater chains are seeing slow business so far throughout the day. Decent opening day pre-sales for the anime flick. All holdovers saw inflated drops in pre-sales today due to a storm paralyzing the city yesterday leading to Sunday-like admissions on Wednesday. Only 2/9 films saw drops on Wednesday compared with Tuesday's final admissions. We should expect deflated holds for all holdovers this weekend.

 

Edited July 31, 2019 by Bluebomb

[Bluebomb]

	Thursday				August 1
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	% chg	QD % chg
1	Fast & Furious: Hobbs & Shaw	--	32,046	--	--
2	The Lion King	34,670	14,087	-59.4%	-45.3%
3	Toy Story 4	17,249	9,462	-45.1%	-39.8%
4	The Great Detective Sherlock Holmes: The Greatest Jail-Breaker	--	9,382	--	--
5	Once Upon A Time in Hollywood	6,985	2,858	-59.1%	-54.4%
6	The White Storm 2: Drug Lords	8,983	2,848	-68.3%	-67.0%
7	Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of the Moon Exploration	--	1,885	--	-40.1%
8	The Confidence Man JP: The Movie	2,837	829	-70.8%	-64.1%
9	Crayon Shin-chan: Honeymoon Hurricane	1,616	823	-49.1%	-46.0%
10	Spider-Man: Far From Home	2,184	761	-65.2%	-59.5%

Strong walk-ins for Hobbs & Shaw. Opening day reviews are in and it has started off with a solid 4.2/5. Due to its performance today, it will get another screen on Saturday/Sunday pushing down The Lion King/Toy Story 4 and The Great Detective Sherlock Holmes. Decent walk-ins for The Lion King. Its hold isn't great but still acceptable for now. Good hold for Toy Story 4. It had the best hold of the top 10 and just snuck in ahead of The Great Detective Sherlock Holmes for #3 within the last 2 hours. The Great Detective Sherlock Holmes: The Greatest Jail-Breaker had good pre-sales but fell apart with walk-ins. As this is a frontloaded movie, expect a drop on Friday with a slight rebound for Saturday/Sunday. OK for Once Upon A Time in Hollywood. Today's drops were going to be slightly more inflated with yesterday suddenly becoming a half-day holiday. The White Storm 2 had a bad hold. Doraemon 2019 is still in sneaks mode and will be officially out next Thursday.
 

	Friday adm.	(so far)			August 2
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Fast & Furious: Hobbs & Shaw	--	8,364	--	-4.0%
2	The Lion King	13,758	5,317	-61.4%	+53.6%
3	The Great Detective Sherlock Holmes: The Greatest Jail-Breaker	--	3,370	--	-39.6%
4	Toy Story 4	7,717	3,128	-59.5%	+19.1%
5	Once Upon A Time in Hollywood	2,537	1,461	-42.4%	+92.5%
6	Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of the Moon Exploration	--	1,251	--	+35.5%
7	The White Storm 2: Drug Lords	2,974	903	-69.6%	+69.7%
8	The Confidence Man JP: The Movie	1,029	295	-71.3%	+30.5%
9	Spider-Man: Far From Home	622	238	-61.7%	--
10	Parasite	--	142	--	--

Ouch for Hobbs & Shaw. Very good increase from Thursday's pre-sales for The Lion King. Terrible drop in pre-sales for The Great Detective Sherlock Holmes. Toy Story 4 had its first weak hold and its Friday increase is its worst since it opened. It will pass 10m today. Good hold for Once Upon A Time in Hollywood.

[keysersoze123]

How is H&S looking relative to F8.

[Bluebomb]

22 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

How is H&S looking relative to F8.

Fast & Furious 8 opened with 57,600 admissions on Easter long weekend, grossing $673,000 on Thursday. Hobbs & Shaw is looking at an estimated $363,000 which would be about 54% of Fast & Furious 8's opening day gross.

 

For the weekend, Fast & Furious 8 made around $3,462,542 for the 5-day holiday weekend while Hobbs & Shaw are looking at retaining half of that number this weekend.

 

	Friday				August 2
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Fast & Furious: Hobbs & Shaw	--	31,758	--	-0.9%
2	The Lion King	34,939	17,540	-49.8%	+24.5%
3	Toy Story 4	21,322	10,860	-49.1%	+14.8%
4	The Great Detective Sherlock Holmes: The Greatest Jail-Breaker	--	7,527	--	-19.8%
5	Once Upon A Time in Hollywood	7,900	4,599	-41.8%	+60.9%
6	The White Storm 2: Drug Lords	11,452	3,800	-66.8%	+33.4%
7	Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of the Moon Exploration	--	2,207	--	+17.1%
8	Spider-Man: Far From Home	2,688	1,571	-41.6%	+106.4%
9	The Confidence Man JP: The Movie	3,544	1,260	-64.4%	+52.0%
10	Crayon Shin-chan: Honeymoon Hurricane	1,586	842	-46.9%	+2.3%

Hobbs & Shaw drops from Thursday although it is almost flat. Fast & Furious films aren't usually the frontloaded type. We'll see if this drop will have an effect on its admissions this weekend. Most holdovers held alright with Once Upon A Time in Hollywood and Spider-Man: Far From Home holding above average. The Great Detective Sherlock Holmes declined sharply on Friday, down a whopping 20% from Thursday. Poor hold for White Storm 2. It seems like this might miss out on making 4m which would be a disappointing result given the first film grossed 4.1m under less inflation and in the wintertime as well.
 

	Saturday adm.	(so far)			August 3
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Fast & Furious: Hobbs & Shaw	--	12,299	--	+47.0%
2	The Lion King	19,129	8,000	-58.2%	+50.5%
3	Toy Story 4	10,765	4,839	-55.0%	+54.7%
4	The Great Detective Sherlock Holmes: The Greatest Jail-Breaker	--	3,345	--	-0.7%
5	Once Upon A Time in Hollywood	3,427	1,840	-46.3%	+25.9%
6	Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of the Moon Exploration	--	1,657	--	+32.5%
7	Weathering with You	--	1,414	--	--
8	The White Storm 2: Drug Lords	3,531	1,002	-71.6%	+11.0%
9	Detective Conan: The Fist of Blue Sapphire	--	367	--	--
10	The Confidence Man JP: The Movie	925	349	-62.3%	+18.3%

Average increases for almost all films. Hobbs & Shaw looks like it will target 46-47k admissions today. The Great Detective Sherlock Holmes decreases from its Friday pre-sales. Yikes. If it decreases on Saturday, it might be the first animated film ever to fall on Saturday. Down in 7th, Weathering with You begins its sneak previews with only 1 or 2 showtimes at theaters showing this ahead of its full release next Thursday.

 

[Bluebomb]

	Saturday				August 3
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Fast & Furious: Hobbs & Shaw	--	49,678	--	+56.4%
2	The Lion King	51,827	28,415	-45.2%	+62.0%
3	Toy Story 4	31,422	18,027	-42.6%	+66.0%
4	The Great Detective Sherlock Holmes: The Greatest Jail-Breaker	--	9,163	--	+21.7%
5	Once Upon A Time in Hollywood	11,763	6,903	-41.3%	+50.1%
6	The White Storm 2: Drug Lords	15,200	5,466	-64.0%	+43.8%
7	Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of the Moon Exploration	--	5,432	--	+146.1%
8	The Confidence Man JP: The Movie	4,005	1,896	-52.7%	+50.5%
9	Weathering with You	--	1,800	--	--
10	Spider-Man: Far From Home	3,563	1,188	-66.7%	-5.7%

Today was walk-ins day as every film from this morning increased from its pre-sales %. Hobbs & Shaw saw a decent increase from yesterday. The top 3 holdovers saw good holds. The Great Detective Sherlock Holmes managed to snag an increase but it still fell from its Thursday admissions.

Hobbs & Shaw opening weekend projection - $2,065,000

After recalculating the multiplier due to 3D IMAX showings, Hobbs & Shaw is looking at a weekend over 2m.
 

	Sunday adm.	(so far)			August 4
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Fast & Furious: Hobbs & Shaw	--	17,224	--	+40.0%
2	The Lion King	20,723	12,107	-41.6%	+51.3%
3	Toy Story 4	14,288	8,401	-41.2%	+73.6%
4	The Great Detective Sherlock Holmes: The Great Jail-Breaker	348	5,873	+1587.6%	+75.6%
5	Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of the Moon Exploration	7,952	3,979	-50.0%	+140.1%
6	Once Upon A Time in Hollywood	3,798	1,769	-53.4%	-3.9%
7	The White Storm 2: Drug Lords	4,321	1,602	-62.9%	+59.9%
8	Weathering with You	--	1,374	--	-2.8%
9	The Confidence Man JP: The Movie	1,187	597	-49.7%	+71.1%
10	Crayon Shin-chan: Honeymoon Hurricane	600	432	-28.0%	--

Those increases are insane. 6 films over 50% higher than Saturday pre-sales. Even Hobbs & Shaw is rocking a 40% increase. It's probably because of a planned city wide strike on Monday which will wreak havoc on admissions and Thursday scheduling for theaters. The Lion King went from -73% with Thursday pre-sales to only -42% today. Similarly, The Confidence Man went from -76% on Thursday to -50% today.

 

[Bluebomb]

	Sunday				August 4
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Fast & Furious: Hobbs & Shaw	--	49,297	--	-0.8%
2	The Lion King	53,539	28,977	-45.9%	+2.0%
3	Toy Story 4	36,010	19,074	-47.0%	+5.8%
4	The Great Detective Sherlock Holmes: The Greatest Jail-Breaker	--	11,160	--	+21.8%
5	Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of the Moon Exploration	12,625	7,968	-36.9%	+46.7%
6	Once Upon A Time in Hollywood	11,360	5,710	-49.7%	-17.3%
7	The White Storm 2: Drug Lords	15,712	5,318	-66.2%	-2.7%
8	Weathering with You	--	2,262	--	+25.7%
9	The Confidence Man JP: The Movie	3,862	1,756	-54.5%	-7.4%
10	Crayon Shin-chan: Honeymoon Hurricane	1,973	1,405	-28.8%	--

Big Sunday crash for all films. The most telling examples were The White Storm 2 and The Confidence Man JP. Going from a 60% increase in pre-sales to a decrease in final admissions. Most holdovers had good holds overall. Hobbs & Shaw performed pretty well today.
 

	Weekend adm.			Aug 1-4
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	% chg
1	Fast & Furious: Hobbs & Shaw	--	162,779	--
2	The Lion King	174,975	89,019	-49.1%
3	Toy Story 4	106,003	57,423	-45.8%
4	The Great Detective Sherlock Holmes: The Greatest Jail-Breaker	--	37,232	--
5	Once Upon A Time in Hollywood	38,008	20,070	-47.2%
6	Doraemon: Nobita's Chronicle of the Moon Exploration	12,625	17,492	+38.6%
7	The White Storm 2: Drug Lords	51,347	17,432	-66.1%
8	The Confidence Man JP: The Movie	14,248	5,741	-59.7%

 

	Weekend Estimates			August 1
Rank	Movie	TW	% chg	Total
1	Fast & Furious: Hobbs & Shaw	$1,970,000		$1,970,000
2	The Lion King	$850,000	-55.1%	$3,500,000
3	Toy Story 4	$565,000	-44.9%	$10,330,000
4	The Great Detective Sherlock Holmes: The Great Jail-Breaker	$335,000		$335,000
5	Once Upon A Time in Hollywood	$255,000	-46.9%	$870,000

With Sunday being well overestimated, Hobbs & Shaw is now unlikely to pass 2m. The Lion King had an iffy hold. Though it held better as the weekend went along, this was either on the 2nd or 3rd screen which meant that it had the seats to hold well. Unlike The Lion King, Toy Story 4 had a good hold. When a movie is on the 3rd or 4th biggest screen, it can be a huge difference when two theaters can hold over 200 seats and the other 2 can only seat 70 for example. Toy Story 4 was on the 3rd, 4th or 5th biggest screen depending on Hobbs & Shaw's performance at individual theaters. Logic dictates that this will pass Toy Story 3 for the biggest animated movie of all time but there's a lot of uncertainty with moviegoing right now. The Great Detective Sherlock Holmes had a seesaw weekend. Very good opening day followed by a shocking Friday along with a weak Saturday only to come back on Sunday. Once Upon A Time in Hollywood will pass 1m next week.

 

[Bluebomb]

Top Animated Films (in HKD) (updated as of August 5, 2019)

Toy Story 3 - $89,364,118
Toy Story 4 - $81,499,994 - still in release
Minions - $78,404,191
Monsters University - $77,407,664
Incredibles 2 - $71,205,663
Inside Out - $66,016,979
Zootopia - $51,865,101
Despicable Me 3 - $49,892,324
Finding Dory - $49,524,251
Stand By Me Doraemon - 46,891,675
The Boss Baby - 41,766,789
Coco - 40,701,893
Kung Fu Panda 2 - $39,469,375
Ice Age 4: Continental Drift - $38,236,658
Ralph Breaks the Internet - $38,200,000 (estimate)
Toy Story 2 - $35,732,127
Big Hero 6 - $34,340,162 (estimate)
The Incredibles - $33,777,162
Up - $33,248,227
Despicable Me 2 - $32,603,704
Ice Age 3: Dawn of the Dinosaurs - $32,446,094
Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted - $32,191,416
Finding Nemo - $31,816,876
Your Name - more than $31,478,296
Kung Fu Panda - $31,457,738
The Secret Life of Pets - $30,460,851

@Omni Updated.
 

	Top 50 Films of All Time (Hong Kong)
Rank	Movie	HK Gross	US Gross
1	Avengers: Endgame*	$223,047,953	$28,451,680
2	Avatar*	$178,248,295	$22,964,414
3	Avengers: Infinity War	$153,301,337	$19,549,780
4	Avengers: Age of Ultron	$133,061,397	$17,121,674
5	Titanic**	$115,306,690	$14,826,276
6	Captain America: Civil War	$112,654,686	$14,365,941
7	Iron Man 3	$106,389,801	$13,723,457
8	Transformers 4	$98,196,851	$12,601,288
9	The Avengers	$96,705,670	$12,474,280
10	Jurassic World	$96,295,976	$12,357,355
11	Toy Story 3	$89,364,118	$11,527,276
12	Jurassic Park: Fallen Kingdom	$88,649,003	$11,304,980
13	Spider-Man: Far From Home*	$84,843,161	$10,822,473
14	Transformers 3	$84,703,797	$10,804,696
15	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	$81,701,193	$10,512,900
16	Toy Story 4*	$81,499,994	$10,396,023
17	The Dark Knight Rises	$80,269,966	$10,354,201
18	Minions	$78,404,191	$10,088,659
19	Monsters University	$77,407,664	$9,984,987
20	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2	$76,785,999	$9,904,797
21	Captain Marvel	$76,590,738	$9,767,247
22	Aquaman	$75,625,663	$9,644,176
23	Incredibles 2	$71,205,663	$9,080,282
24	Train to Busan	$68,004,629	$8,672,080
25	Beauty and the Beast	$67,232,357	$8,573,598
26	Cold War 2	$66,244,171	$8,447,583
27	Inside Out	$66,016,979	$8,418,611
28	Spider-Man: Homecoming	$65,760,306	$8,385,880
29	Black Panther	$63,312,121	$8,073,682
30	Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice	$62,286,926	$7,942,948
31	The Amazing Spider-Man	$61,983,852	$7,904,299
32	Jurassic Park	$61,898,795	$7,893,452
33	You Are the Apple of My Eye	$61,857,826	$7,888,228
34	Kung Fu Hustle	$61,278,697	$7,863,699
35	Shaolin Soccer	$60,739,847	$7,794,550
36	Mission Impossible: Fallout	$60,449,812	$7,708,675
37	Ip Man 3	$60,261,407	$7,684,650
38	Doctor Strange	$59,793,472	$7,627,170
39	Aladdin*	$59,788,008	$7,626,473
40	Furious 7	$59,634,515	$7,604,707
41	The Dark Knight	$58,524,393	$7,531,944
42	Inception	$58,380,823	$7,513,467
43	Deadpool	$58,332,555	$7,535,722
44	The Lost World: Jurassic Park	$58,231,885	$7,494,299
45	Police Story 4: First Strike	$57,518,795	$7,402,526
46	Ant-Man and the Wasp	$57,068,721	$7,277,512
47	Rumble in the Bronx	$56,912,536	$7,257,595
48	Captain America: The Winter Soldier	$56,552,117	$7,211,634
49	The Mermaid	$56,224,292	$7,169,829
50	Infernal Affairs	$55,057,176	$7,085,722

* - without re-release (Re-release included: $183,411,471 HK)
** - without re-release (Re-release included: $128,003,033 HK)
* - still in release

Updated as of August 5, 2019.

Avengers 4 is still chugging along. Top 10 looks safe with Toy Story 4 fading. Toy Story 4 will leapfrog over Spider-Man: Far From Home this week. 60m HK might not be impossible for Aladdin. It will depend on how many showtimes it gets this weekend.

[Bluebomb]

19 theaters across the city will be closed the entire day today amidst expected clashes between rioters/police. The breakdown is as follows:

 

Broadway/AMC - 7/14 theaters closed
MCL - 4/10 theaters closed
UA - 4/7 theaters closed
Cinema City - 2/5 theaters closed + 1 partial = 3/5 theaters affected
Golden Harvest - 2/7 theaters closed

 

No other theater chains are reporting any closures. I expect by the time the sun sets tomorrow, at least half of theaters will have shut down in some capacity. R.I.P. HK box office. This is a major calamity for everyone in HK. For more than 1/3 of theaters to not be in operation on a public holiday is a disaster.

 

These theater closures are having a major effect on movies already. Abominable comes out today and in 2 and a half hours, it has gone down from 8,620 admissions at midnight to just 6,439 (2,000+ admissions lost) now.

[Bluebomb]

2 PM update: More theaters have shutdown. Breakdown is below.

 

Broadway/AMC - 8/14 theaters closed
UA - 7/7 theaters closed
MCL - 5/10 theaters closed + 1 more to close after 5 PM.
Cinema City - 3/5 theaters closed
Golden Harvest - 2/7 theaters closed

 

These 5 theater chains represent more than 75% of HK's box office. 25 theaters have closed and 1 more will be added after 5 PM.

I am shocked they haven't closed some theaters in the hot spots yet. They should shut down every theater. There's no need to jeopardize public safety like this especially when nearly all locations are reporting lower than normal ticket sales.

[Bluebomb]

7 PM update: The sun has set and more theaters have closed.

 

Broadway/AMC - 11/14 theaters closed
UA - 7/7 theaters closed
MCL - 6/10 theaters closed + 2 more to be closed
Golden Harvest - 5/7 theaters closed
Cinema City - 4/5 theaters closed
Emperor - 2/3 theaters closed
Newport Circuit - 1/4 theaters closed

 

If you include the 2 theaters that will close after 8 PM, 38 theaters will have been affected by the riots today. That is 2/3 of the city's entire theater count. Not surprisingly, movies have been greatly affected.

 

Within a 2 and a half hour period from 4:40 - 7:10 pm, Ad Astra only picked up 400 admissions and it was the top performer over any other film in that time frame. Normally, the top films gains 1,000+ admissions per hour and upwards for 4,000-5,000 admissions for blockbusters on regular weekends.

 

National Day Admissions - taken at 8 PM

 

1. Abominable - 12,158 adm.
2. Ad Astra - 6,218
3. Ready or Not - 3,226
4. Rambo: The Last Blood - 2,497 (-67.8%)
5. The Climbers - 1,805
6. Fagara - 1,779 (-49.2%)
7. It: Chapter 2 - 1,468 (-62.3%)

 

Abominable would have possibly claimed 40,000 admissions today with all theaters operating. The holdovers were crushed hard including Fagara which has been a standout for the past 2 weeks. The remaining 4 hours won't matter much to each film's final admissions.

 

We started with 44 films with showtimes today but only 30 films managed to squeak out showtimes that have run completely with all the closures popping up.

[Bluebomb]

Thursday admissions (October 3)

1. Joker - 39,547 adm.

2/3 of business comprised of walk-ins. With its impeccable 4.7/5 in opening day reviews so far, this seems poised to blow up this weekend.

Depending on ticket prices and multipliers, it is aiming for an opening weekend of 2.2-2.7m, better than 2.1m OW achieved by The Dark Knight. If it performs on the high end of that range, it will gross 3/4 of The Dark Knight Rises OW.

 

[keysersoze123]

6 hours ago, Bluebomb said:

Thursday admissions (October 3)

1. Joker - 39,547 adm.

2/3 of business comprised of walk-ins. With its impeccable 4.7/5 in opening day reviews so far, this seems poised to blow up this weekend.

Depending on ticket prices and multipliers, it is aiming for an opening weekend of 2.2-2.7m, better than 2.1m OW achieved by The Dark Knight. If it performs on the high end of that range, it will gross 3/4 of The Dark Knight Rises OW.

 

How about comparisons to recent marvel solo movies, deadpool etc.

[Bluebomb]

Joker opening day actual - $433,511

Opening day comparisons

-34.9% from The Dark Knight Rises OD
-42.5% from Deadpool's OD (holiday)
-47.1% from Captain Marvel's OD

Friday admissions (October 4)

1. Joker - 26,603 (-32.7% from Thursday)

Normally films do not drop on Friday, however, 30 theaters closed today during the 6 PM hour or later due to the ongoing riots/unrest which means more than 15,000 potential ticket sales were affected. All IMAX showtimes were cancelled as well. Now, I'm not sure how studios/theaters calculate grosses after theaters close but if they also count revenue from tickets sold for showtimes after 6 PM then Joker's Friday gross should be a lot closer to its OD gross.

Due to the sudden closures of more than half of the theaters today, I am revising Joker's 4-day OW to anywhere between 1.5-2.5m. The reason for the large spread is because if we see theater closures like this again this weekend, Joker's OW will be severely disrupted. With a 5-day OW, I see an OW of around 2-3.4m.

Sunday will be almost every film's best day with the holiday Monday, however, we have seen animation films top their Sunday admissions on Monday.

[Bluebomb]

	Saturday				October 5
Rank	Movie	LW	TW	WKD % chg	QD % chg
1	Joker	--	43,298	--	+62.8%
2	Abominable	--	5,132	--	+184.3%
3	Ready or Not	--	1,889	--	--
4	Ad Astra	--	1,647	--	-18.7%

25 theaters were affected today either with full day closures or partial ones.

Good increase for Joker. Really bad for Abominable. It even has a better user score than Joker (4.7 vs. 4.6 for Joker) but it looks like families are staying away from theaters for the time being. Terrible for Ad Astra.
 

		Weekly Gross (Mon-Sun)							Sep 23-29
LW	TW	Title	Last Week (HKD)	This Week (HKD)	Days in release	% chg	Total (HKD)	This Week (USD)	Total (USD)
--	1	Ad Astra	--	$3,931,992	4	--	$3,931,992	$501,647	$501,647
--	2	Rambo: The Last Blood	--	$3,056,336	11	--	$6,861,413	$389,930	$875,385
--	3	Ready or Not	--	$2,439,295	4	--	$2,439,295	$311,207	$311,207
--	4	It: Chapter 2	--	$2,388,394	18	--	$14,810,011	$304,713	$1,889,475
--	5	Fagara	--	$1,679,898	18	--	$6,350,377	$214,323	$810,187
--	6	Anna	--	$743,511	25	--	$7,089,824	$94,857	$904,526
--	7	Exit	--	$579,687	25	--	$5,347,093	$73,957	$682,187
--	8	Angel Has Fallen	--	$478,380	32	--	$16,391,190	$61,032	$2,091,203
--	9	Ossan's Love: Love or Dead	--	$443,222	18	--	$3,095,024	$56,546	$394,866
--	10	Good Boys	--	$315,511	25	--	$3,732,900	$40,253	$476,247

Really bare at the moment. When the top film is only making $500,000 in 7 days, there's something extremely wrong going on.
 

	Top 50 Films of All Time (Hong Kong)
Rank	Movie	HK Gross	US Gross
1	Avengers: Endgame	$223,089,935	$28,462,030
2	Avatar*	$178,248,295	$22,964,414
3	Avengers: Infinity War	$153,301,337	$19,549,780
4	Avengers: Age of Ultron	$133,061,397	$17,121,674
5	Titanic**	$115,306,690	$14,826,276
6	Captain America: Civil War	$112,654,686	$14,365,941
7	Iron Man 3	$106,389,801	$13,723,457
8	Transformers 4	$98,196,851	$12,601,288
9	The Avengers	$96,705,670	$12,474,280
10	Jurassic World	$96,295,976	$12,357,355
11	Toy Story 3	$89,364,118	$11,527,276
12	Jurassic Park: Fallen Kingdom	$88,649,003	$11,304,980
13	Toy Story 4*	$88,541,985	$11,296,272
14	Spider-Man: Far From Home*	$85,393,469	$10,894,581
15	Transformers 3	$84,703,797	$10,804,696
16	Star Wars: The Force Awakens	$81,701,193	$10,512,900
17	The Dark Knight Rises	$80,269,966	$10,354,201
18	Minions	$78,404,191	$10,088,659
19	Monsters University	$77,407,664	$9,984,987
20	Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2	$76,785,999	$9,904,797
21	Captain Marvel	$76,590,738	$9,767,247
22	Aquaman	$75,625,663	$9,644,176
23	Incredibles 2	$71,205,663	$9,080,282
24	Train to Busan	$68,004,629	$8,672,080
25	Beauty and the Beast	$67,232,357	$8,573,598
26	Cold War 2	$66,244,171	$8,447,583
27	Inside Out	$66,016,979	$8,418,611
28	Spider-Man: Homecoming	$65,760,306	$8,385,880
29	Black Panther	$63,312,121	$8,073,682
30	Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice	$62,286,926	$7,942,948
31	The Amazing Spider-Man	$61,983,852	$7,904,299
32	Jurassic Park	$61,898,795	$7,893,452
33	You Are the Apple of My Eye	$61,857,826	$7,888,228
34	Kung Fu Hustle	$61,278,697	$7,863,699
35	Shaolin Soccer	$60,739,847	$7,794,550
36	Mission Impossible: Fallout	$60,449,812	$7,708,675
37	Ip Man 3	$60,261,407	$7,684,650
38	Aladdin*	$60,026,865	$7,658,285
39	Doctor Strange	$59,793,472	$7,627,170
40	Furious 7	$59,634,515	$7,604,707
41	The Dark Knight	$58,524,393	$7,531,944
42	Inception	$58,380,823	$7,513,467
43	Deadpool	$58,332,555	$7,535,722
44	The Lost World: Jurassic Park	$58,231,885	$7,494,299
45	Police Story 4: First Strike	$57,518,795	$7,402,526
46	Ant-Man and the Wasp	$57,068,721	$7,277,512
47	Rumble in the Bronx	$56,912,536	$7,257,595
48	Captain America: The Winter Soldier	$56,552,117	$7,211,634
49	The Mermaid	$56,224,292	$7,169,829
50	Infernal Affairs	$55,057,176	$7,085,722

* - without re-release (Re-release included: $183,411,471 HK)
** - without re-release (Re-release included: $128,003,033 HK)
* - still in release

Avengers 4 finished its run weeks ago. Toy Story 4 will end up missing its predecessor's total by less than 1m HK. There's a slim chance that it could pass Jurassic Park: Fallen Kingdom for #12 but it's only about a 10% chance. Aladdin finally passes 60m HK.

Sunday pre-sales

Joker - 11,155

Sunday pre-sales are down from Saturday's pre-sales by about 20%. It seems like everyone including theater owners are taking a wait-and-see approach to today. Yesterday, 17 theaters made the decision to close down for the entire day by 1 AM. Today, only 6 theaters have purged their Sunday schedules so far.