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Shawn Robbins

Weekend Discussion: IM3 @ 175.3m wknd est

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I still wonder how front loaded this will be.

 

It could be very front-loaded. A $15 million midnight gross is incredible and would spawn amazing legs to a $75M opening day. However, those Thursday 9 p.m. showings burned off demand, and it will open more likely to a $55 million opening day with that.

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It's not worth it. The highest weekend gross was Easter with $139M.

I think you need to read what he wrote again. We have combined total weekends upcoming that could make 300m. It's such an easy bet to win. I know a couple of weekends that are locked to be over 200m and that's higher then what IM3 will get.
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I think you need to read what he wrote again. We have combined total weekends upcoming that could make 300m. It's such an easy bet to win. I know a couple of weekends that are locked to be over 200m and that's higher then what IM3 will get.

I meant so far. It wasn't that hard to figure out, contextually, I mean.

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Biggest weekend of the year was the first w/ 147.6m. Sure, I'd take that bet.

I thought you were talking about every weekend this year including ones that are upcoming. That's the way it sounded when I read your post anyways.
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It could be very front-loaded. A $15 million midnight gross is incredible and would spawn amazing legs to a $75M opening day. However, those Thursday 9 p.m. showings burned off demand, and it will open more likely to a $55 million opening day with that.

Do you think we may get a good indication on Sunday? A nice hold could be a good sign and the same for a steep drop.
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http://www.hsx.com/forum/forum.php?id=3&pid=231653

 

Current matinee gross of 12.35M.  With at least an hour left on the EC and matinees just getting going on the WC, I think we can expect ~20M from matinees.  20+15.6M and we're at 35.6M.  Add in 40M from evening shows and we're at ~75M.

 

I don't know about that calculation. He said it was running 17% behind the Avengers. If that is the case, the day ends up around $69-70m. Needs to be within 8% of TA's pace to reach $75m.

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Iron Man 3's opening weekend will be bigger than the total gross of every weekend this year.

Contextually there's no hint whatsoever of saying so far this year. You just said EVERY weekend this year.
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Chew on this fact:

 

If anyone had tried to say Iron Man 3 could beat TDKR's OD a year ago they would have been crucified. And now that's exactly what might happen.

 

TDKR's opening day was $76M, if I'm correct?

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http://www.hsx.com/forum/forum.php?id=3&pid=231653

 

Current matinee gross of 12.35M.  With at least an hour left on the EC and matinees just getting going on the WC, I think we can expect ~20M from matinees.  20+15.6M and we're at 35.6M.  Add in 40M from evening shows and we're at ~75M.

 

Now 40M of night business is no lock.  But that's about what should be expected for a film like this (give or take a few million of course).  TA  performed a bit better, probably like 20M matinees and 42.5M evenings (+18.5 mids), and then just exploded on Saturday with like 35M matinees and early shows and 35M more at night.  THAT is what will NOT happen with this, obviously.

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