kesleyk
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Posts posted by kesleyk
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And it hasn't had that kind of drop yet
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5 hours ago, Baumer said:
How can it get to 950? It would need 10% drops from here out. 935 would be good.
22 percent
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59 minutes ago, hw64 said:
It has a reasonable per-theatre average BECAUSE it's been dropped from so many screens. If it was still playing in more screens it'd be significantly lower.
Tfa was at 3365 theatres prior to Friday. Assuming the dropped theatres provide no revenue, then pta would still have been 232, dropping behind tr 289 and tfh 242, not supporting your statement
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45 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:
Would love to see this graph include the first three weeks of all three of those movies.
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1 hour ago, FlashMaster659 said:
Was this third week drop to be expected?
Date
(click to view chart)Rank Weekly
Gross%
ChangeTheaters / Change Avg. Gross-to-Date Week
#Dec 18–24 1 $390,856,054 - 4,134 - $94,547 $390,856,054 1 Dec 25–31 1 $261,111,215 -33.2% 4,134 - $63,162 $651,967,269 2
2016Date
(click to view chart)Rank Weekly
Gross%
ChangeTheaters / Change Avg. Gross-to-Date Week
#Jan 1–7 1 $118,413,774 -54.7% 4,134 - $28,644 $770,381,043 3
Are you disappointed with a third straight week over 100m? I think 118m is a record third week. I wasn't able to find any other film that had three weeks over 100m.
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And this gives tfa the #2 (7 days in release) and #6 (14 days) non-opening Thursdays, pushing jw to #11 (7 days). All others in the top 15 were second or third day in release.
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Comes down to 200k to put down JW thursday...
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This would represent the #3 non-opening weekend, behind #1 TFA and #2 transformers, moving spiderman down to #4.
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1 minute ago, Daxtreme said:
It's weird that they use that. Seems really arbitrary and only really benefits this movie in particular.
And kind of undermines the incredible records that Avatar set in its 4th and 5th week-ends.
Yeah, it's a statistical anomaly which is kind of interesting if not very representative.
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Dax, that's fine, but you didn't quote the BOM charts, you used the Numbers chart, which is to what i thought you wanted to reference.
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3 minutes ago, HeyItsMoses said:
$650 by Thursday is a lock, right?
Not a lock, but pretty good chance.
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17 minutes ago, SoSaysI said:
Avatar owns the 3rd through 7th weekend records (well third weekend record it will own until Sunday). After that it is Titanic.
Av owns 3rd, 6th, 7th weekends, unless you want to limit it to wide releases only.
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17 minutes ago, Daxtreme said:
Biggest Opening, 2nd, 3rd etc. Weekends
Weekend
NumberDate Top-Grossing Movie Gross Theaters Cumulative Gross 1 Dec 18, 2015 Star Wars Ep. VII: The Force Awakens $247,966,675 4,134 $247,966,675 Full Chart 2 Dec 25, 2015 Star Wars Ep. VII: The Force Awakens $149,202,860 4,134 $540,058,914 Full Chart 3 Jan 1, 2010 Avatar $68,490,688 3,461 $352,114,898 Full Chart 4 Jan 16, 2015 American Sniper $89,269,066 3,555 $92,693,844 Full Chart 5 Jan 23, 2015 American Sniper $64,628,304 3,705 $200,400,417 Full Chart 6 Jan 22, 2010 Avatar $34,944,081 3,141 $551,741,499 Full Chart 7 Jan 29, 2010 Avatar $31,280,029 3,074 $595,752,416 Full Chart 8 Feb 6, 1998 Titanic $23,027,838 2,956 $337,355,666 Full Chart 9 Feb 13, 1998 Titanic $32,876,424 3,002 $376,270,721 Full Chart 10 Feb 20, 1998 Titanic $21,036,343 3,006 $402,561,881 Full Chart From the-numbers.com.
American Sniper? That doesn't seem right. It wasn't in wide release for its first 3 week-ends
This chart is weekends after release, not limited to wide release. AS was limited its first 2 weeks, then went wide its third.
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Gotta tell ya, when my woman and I saw three first trailer on this, we were both definitely going to see it. We knew it would be stupid, but it looked like a ton of fun. After it tanked the first weekend and about 90% of what we heard was horrible, we decided to wait until it came out on rental. (we usually don't see movies on OW for just this reason.) I'm still not convinced to see it at the theater, but at least I'm not dreading it like I was after the weekend.btw - 80s music is horrible. I do like it, a lot, and have a huge collection of it, but you gotta admit, Tchaikovsky it ain't.I agree that it feeds on nostalgia. Mindless and nostalgia should never be used in the same sentence. Nostalgia is something that we should all have. It means you enjoyed yourself when you were younger. That is not mindless or pointless, but a very positive thing.There is nothing cynical in the film and what exactly is Disneyized about it?
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Oops, sorry. I applied the w/w drops to dailies. You are right, of course.I'm not sure what you mean about 10% drops, by my calculations it should pass SM in the next 3-4 weeks (it depends on theatre drops).It will do at least 1.3m for this week (Jun 15-21) for $402.2m. That's a 23% week to week drop. The last four weekly drops have therefore been 23%, 29%, 35% and 14%. Let's say it has 35% weekly drops from here on out.June 22-28: $845,000June 29-Jul 5: $549,000Jul 6-12: $356,000That gives a total of $403.95m, which tops Spider-man.
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For THG to pass SM, THG needs to either have better than 10% drops or better for the next month straight, or a push from expansion. Note, THG has only had three sub 10% drops since it opened three months ago, none of which were in the last month. Not impossible, but unlikely.I'm pretty sure Spider-man is going down, there's only 1.8m to go and THG is still comfortably over $100,000 a day. It'd take huge theatre drops to prevent it happening.
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THG very likely to pass revenge of the fallen this week, but even with 10% drops here on out, it likely won't pass SM without an expansion.
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Was pretty much spot on for tue-thur last week (1.5,1.1,1.3 vs. 1.5,1.3,1.3), but the w/e bore my guesses out of the water (6.3 vs. 8.9). For this week ta guesses:T-1.25W-0.9H-1.0W/E-5.9
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Simply wow. Only 18% w/w drop.$1,133,339- AvengersI'm stunned!
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I expect 800k-900k for ta yesterday. But, I'm usually a bit low.Totally. I want nothing less than $1,000,001 for Mon.
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Could be. It wouldn't be the first time I was wrong.I think you're way low on this one. IM, IM2 and SM1 all had far lower drops over their seventh weekend, which AFAIK coincided with father's day weekend. You're predicting a 45% drop when I think it will be sub 40%.-editMeant seventh weekend lol
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Let me try this again on the off chance that you are not being intentionally obtuse. You can be 100% certain something will happen. And after the fact your prediction may end up correct. However, that does NOT men it was a mathematical certainty.Well, I didn't see you last Tues. Sorry.And it was a certainty.
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Hell, I may have even posted on thursday, not sure. Searches on the phone are painful so I can't be sure.
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I posted last tuesday as usual. I do see the the smiley, and agree your guess was correct. mathematic certainty it wasn't.You conveniently stayed away last week though after I told you it would go up on Tuesday and you were saying it won't. Turns out it was a mathematical certainty.
Weekend Estimates | 21.0 M KFP III | 11.44 M HAIL, CAESAR! | 7.10 M THE REVENANT | 6.89 M SW: TFA | 6.09 M THE CHOICE | 5.20 M PAPAZ | 4.7 M THE FINEST HOURS
in Numbers and Data
Posted
It had a weekend drop of 21, but the best weekly so far has been 26.4. You need week on week drops of 21. Which it hasn't had. It needs better than drops of 21 of you're only considering weekends.