Eric Prime
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Posts posted by Eric Prime
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4 hours ago, Cmasterclay said:
Knocks out another potential 100m grosser from the 2024 till, looking like 23 or so now. Need Wild Robot and a non-Sonic/Mufasa December release to overperform.
Silver lining: it’s possible the whole top 10 will be 200M+ for the first time since 2019. We already got 6, Moana’s a near lock, and we just need some combo of Joker, Venom, Gladiator, Wicked, Mufasa, and Sonic. (Some are likelier than others ofc)
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3 hours ago, John Marston said:
Maybe, but I don't think that is guaranteed. Where is the nostalgia for Dragonball Evolution or The Last Airbender? Also, we saw recently with Indiana Jones 5 where Indiana Jones 4 wasn't well received and didn't get any sort of appreciation over 15 years and cause no anticipation for another installment.
dude whatever I was exaggerating
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2 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:
Cogman.
Would die for him unironically. He deserved a better movie.
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2 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said:
The Last Knight is legit one of the most beautiful looking blockbuster in the last decade or so (if you can handle the aspect ratio changes, which were not a big deal for me).
Maxus.
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3 minutes ago, Grebacio said:
So, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice Beetlejuice?
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I'm honestly pretty pro-Bay too, and like most of his movies, but Dark of the Moon is the only Transformers movie I can ever admit to liking. All the other ones suck eggs, including the first one.
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8 minutes ago, emoviefan said:
The nostalgia some have for Bayformers is just why?
Because people will look at anything they saw as a child and will be nostalgic for it (granted also vulgar auteurism is the hip new thing to do). I guarantee in a few years we're going to see Seltzerberg get some sort of redemption arc and people will be talking about how Disaster Movie's a comedy classic because they saw it when they were 15 years old.
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Saw this blurb from Deadline Anthony and it broke my brain. Like what are you even saying?
QuoteWarner Bros.’ third week of Beetlejuice Beetlejuice isn’t far behind with a third weekend of $24.75M, -52%, at 4,172 locations after a $6.75M Friday. The running total is bound for $225.6M by Sunday which will make it the second highest grossing September theatrical release ever at the domestic box office behind 2017’s It at $328.8M and ahead of Disney/Marvel studio’s 2021 Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings at $224.5M. It’s arguably the highest grossing movie for Jenna Ortega in a story role at the domestic B.O. not counting her supporting part as the Vice President’s daughter in Iron Man 3 ($409M).
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6 minutes ago, Krissykins said:
So Mubi bought it for $12.5m and then spent $10m P&A. Can’t help but think they’d be hoping for more than a $2k pta.
A24 would’ve handled this better.
Well...yeah. You're right. But Mubi doesn't have the same resources or reach or brand name recognition as A24. And Substance is still looking to open higher than Decision to Leave's entire run. It could have easily grossed around the same level as something like Titane, but it's looking to far outpace it. I think this is still a victory, especially if this movie drives people to the Mubi subscription service.
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Honestly thinking Beetlejuice might threepeat at #1. Transformers is already looking to be super fan-driven, and Beetlejuice just needs a few minor jumps from its current estimates to reach a million or two.
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6 minutes ago, JonathanMB said:
The other thing to consider with TF1 is that the first Spider-Verse movie opened to only $35M in 2018 despite flat-out raves from critics. Even factoring in that it was mid-December that was way off from even the lowest-grossing live-action Spider-Man movies. Considering the floor for live-action Transformers was far lower, $30-35M seems like it would be a reasonable number to expect, and an impressive one! But a $25M weekend...eh, at least Paramount kept its budget in line. I imagine merch sales will be good too.
I mean I was thinking it was going to open in the 30s for the longest time and I would think that would be an impressive opening. These animated movies based on live-action properties do have a ceiling to them, and Across the Spider-Verse only broke past that because the first movie was hailed as the greatest thing ever created by humans. But I can't help but think 25M would be quite underwhelming from expectations and potential. Sorry to say.
3 minutes ago, YM! said:Wouldn't TWR technically be a NTC for middle of the gap Gen Z? 🤔
I mean I never heard of the movie or book until this year, and I don't think they are even selling any toys or Funko Pops for the movie or whatever, so I'm gonna say no.
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3 minutes ago, AniNate said:
Cannot say I'd be that shocked by a disappointing box office fate for the movie based on my initial trailer reaction. It had an uphill battle to earn the interest of the casual dem from the start, and reviews while decent aren't really of the OMG YOU MUST SEE IT variety that its competition next week is getting.
Hopefully that's enough of a breakout hit to revive morale. I'd be very very confident if it weren't the lack of sales in my own modest population area making me anxious.
My lack of confidence is just that it isn't a nostalgic toy commercial. Like I know presales are reportedly good, and the reviews are great, but I've been burned enough when it comes to thinking the masses want to see something that isn't something they grew up with. I'll take Migration numbers domestically as a massive victory and Elemental numbers as some unstoppable force at this point. Oh well!
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Will say, as an outsider who doesn't really care for Transformers too much, I think the marketing didn't really do much to appeal to anybody outside of hardcore Transformers fans. The only real hook was "they're animated! And Prime and Megatron are now friends I guess". It was already at a disadvantage being an animated movie, and there was nothing else for newcomers or casual fans to get excited over. I love Ninja Turtles, so I do have a bias, but Mutant Mayhem at least had the hook of having the turtles actually being voiced by and acting like modern-day teens, and a cooler, more creative art style. Didn't feel like there was anything fresh here for those not into the franchise like Bumblebee.
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AUTOBOTS, ROLL OUT
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17 minutes ago, John Marston said:
not a shock. This looks like TV show level animation and the blatant celebrity casting was more of a turn off than draw
I mean...doesn't every animated movie have blatant celebrity casting? It's been that way ever since Katzenberg got away with exploiting Robin Williams to the tune of $500 million.
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Chris Hemsworth is going to play Thor for the next 30 years at this point. His anti-Midas Touch needs to be studied, holy shit.
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I mean I don't think Lionsgate's 2025 is looking that much better tbh. Better than this year, sure. But anything is better than Lionsgate's 2024. The only two movies on their slate that are looking like hits are the Michael Jackson movie and Saw XI. And even then, the Michael movie has so much potential to backfire for a variety of reasons that even I'm not super certain on it like a lot of others are. Everything else is looking like a bomb too (who asked for a Now You See Me 3), that I'm honestly curious if that new Hunger Games movie will even come out under Lionsgate.
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At the very least, Substance will outopen MUBI’s former biggest hit. That is well worth celebrating.
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5 minutes ago, Flopped said:
Deadline says 512K for Substance
Edit: actually I'm confused by their wording
The industry does need a new theatrical distributor and MUBI is making a splash with its acquisition of Universal/Working Titles’s The Substance which minted $512K in Wednesday previews that began at 7PM in 785 theaters and another $327K in previews from 1,455 theaters.https://deadline.com/2024/09/box-office-transformers-one-the-substance-never-let-go-1236095371/
The 512K is from Wednesday Early Access shows, the 327K is from Thursday previews.
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Quorum Updates
White Bird T-15: 17.07% Awareness, 38.84% Interest
Saturday Night T-22: 19.16% Awareness, 43.17% Interest
Black Bag T-176: 4.63% Awareness, 33.39% Interest
The Accountant 2 T-218: 27.44% Awareness, 38.35% Interest
Never Let Go T-1: 31.75% Awareness, 42.99% Interest
Final Awareness: 40% chance of 10M
Horror Awareness: 41% chance of 10M
Final Interest: 45% chance of 10M
Horror Interest: 42% chance of 10M
Transformers One T-1: 53.88% Awareness, 49.92% Interest
Final Awareness: 100% chance of 10M, 93% chance of 20M, 74% chance of 30M
Animation/Family Awareness: 100% chance of 20M, 50% chance of 30M
Final Interest: 45% chance of 10M, 18% chance of 20M, 9% chance of 30M
Animation/Family Interest: 80% chance of 10M, 50% chance of 20M, 20% chance of 30M
Bagman T-8: 19.52% Awareness, 39.49% Interest
Final Awareness: 0% chance of 10M
Horror Awareness: 0% chance of 10M
Final Interest: 22% chance of 10M
Horror Interest: 20% chance of 10M
Megalopolis T-8: 20.34% Awareness, 37.75% Interest
Final Awareness: 17% chance of 10M
Medium Awareness: 25% chance of 10M
Final Interest: 22% chance of 10M
Medium Interest: 50% chance of 10M
The Wild Robot T-8: 37.64% Awareness, 42.97% Interest
Final Awareness: 40% chance of 10M, 32% chance of 20M, 19% chance of 30M
Animation/Family Awareness: 25% chance of 20M
Final Interest: 45% chance of 10M, 18% chance of 20M, 9% chance of 30M
Animation/Family Interest: 80% chance of 10M, 50% chance of 20M, 20% chance of 30M
Venom: The Last Dance T-36: 47.25% Awareness, 54.68% Interest
T-30 Awareness: 85% chance of 30M, 58% chance of 40M, 38% chance of 50M, 35% chance of 60M, 23% chance of 80M, 15% chance of 90M, 11% chance of 100M
DC/MCU Awareness: 100% chance of 30M, 80% chance of 50M, 60% chance of 60M, 40% chance of 90M, 20% chance of 100M
T-30 Interest: 85% chance of 20M, 75% chance of 30M, 65% chance of 40M, 52% chance of 50M, 37% chance of 60M, 27% chance of 70M, 25% chance of 80M, 22% chance of 90M, 20% chance of 100M
DC/MCU Interest: 100% chance of 20M, 89% chance of 40M, 78% chance of 50M, 67% chance of 60M, 55% chance of 100M
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Weekend Thread Sept 20th-22nd
in Numbers and Data
Posted
Nah. It would have opened to 11M, everybody would freak out, I would be all smug and be all “remember guys, it’s not an NTC. People are too scared to see anything that isn’t based off a thing they already know”, people would be all “Eric, that’s not true!”, and we all move on. It’s a very predictable cycle, Maggie. I think we all know that.