Eric Prime
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Posts posted by Eric Prime
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11 minutes ago, John Marston said:
Too bad there was no other good release date for Twisters it seems because it likely would have past 300m domestically which would have guaranteed 400m worldwide.
Maybe Uni execs didn't realize what they had, but I feel they could have and should have negotiated to have the movie play in 4DX for weeks on end a la Oppenheimer. Granted Chung isn't Nolan, but I'm sure you could have worked out something. Sharing with Deadpool or Alien at the very least.
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33 minutes ago, filmlover said:
Brady Corbet has come so far from holding leading man duties as a kid in this bomb that just celebrated its 20th anniversary:
I’m one of the 8 people who saw this in theaters and I have no idea why. I think for a friend’s birthday party? All I remember was that Vanessa Hudgens’ character could control scorpions or something?
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19 minutes ago, Ryan C said:
It finally happened guys!
Inside Out 2 has finally dethroned 2019's The Lion King worldwide! The debate is finally over!
Inside Out 2: $1.666B
The Lion King: $1.663B
World peace has finally been achieved.
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16 minutes ago, HummingLemon496 said:
$300-399M range would be pretty disappointing, tbh
Cool.
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1 hour ago, Spidey Freak said:
It's insane to think that Moana 2 was originally going to be a D+ series but when it was announced to be a theatrical movie, everyone instantly assumed it would make a billion or close!
Makes you wonder how much money WDAS was leaving on the table in the 90s by not releasing the sequel films to their Renaissance giants in theaters. I see even the shit ones like Return of Jafar making a lot of money, especially during OW. The decent ones like Simba's Pride would have been HUGE.
The idea of a movie that looks as horrific as Return of Jafar or Hunchback of Notre Dame 2 being on the big screen is a concept so terrifying that it can keep a man awake at night.
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17 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:
The first IO2 and Logan aren't even 10 years old yet so they aren't nostalgia bait.
As the man who coined the phrase "nostalgic toy commercial", I have the final say on whether Inside Out 2 and Deadpool 3 are nostalgia bait. The answer...is yes.
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1 hour ago, lorddemaxus said:
I have Moana 2 pegged down for the highest grossing movie of the year tbh. 700 mil+
10 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:I think ACU has potential to reach or get close to 100M. Like I think it can get to Anyone But You numbers.
Good luck to the both of ya's. 🙃
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1 minute ago, Jake Gittes said:
Anyway lately every time I see a post about how this or that obscenely successful movie sadly couldn't make even more money, all I can hear in my head is that Wolf of Wall Street line about Leo being pissed off because he was making "just shy of a million a week".
Dune 2 and Wonka should have made more though. Just because.
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28 minutes ago, Ryan C said:
Thing is, that would make sense. How does one day make that much of a diiference? However, history has shown us that if you release a massive blockbuster in December and the days allign just right, you're in for a massive run at the box office.
Go back to To Force Awakens. It opened on December 18th and its second Friday was Christmas Day (a big moviegoing day). Since reception to the film was fantastic and the days aligned right, it only dropped 40% in its second weekend.
No Way Home arguably had even better reception from audiences than The Force Awakens (It got an A+ on Cinemascore compared to TFA's A) and opened slightly higher than that film ($260M to $247M). No Way Home would've easily had a much stronger second weekend hold had its second Friday been Christmas Day and not Christmas Eve and as we saw with The Force Awakens (which continued to hold well throughtout December and into January) No Way Home would've held just as well. Also, No Way Home had pretty much no competition until The Batman in March, so that's why I said it could've gotten close or maybe even topped $1B domestically. It would've played just as long if not more so than TFA.
Maybe I'm not making sense by saying all of this, but I'm still sticking to my guns that if No Way Home's second Friday was Christmas Day, it would've been the highest-grossing film of all-time domestically. I'm not going to act like this isn't weird, but one day really does make a difference.
I mean...I guess an extra 50M was lost with Christmas Eve being on Friday...I guess? But you're really overstating how the calendar works. And honestly, I'd argue the Christmas bump in general isn't as extreme as some users here make it out to be. It's there, but a film's not gonna add an extra 200M to a movie's total just because it came out in late December.
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Anyways, this is now an excuse for me to give my top 10 for the rest of the year. This oughta be fun.
1. Moana 2 (425M)
2. Joker 2 (405M)
3. Beetlejuice 2 (370M)
4. Mufasa: The Lion King (285M)
5. Sonic 3 (260M)
6. Wicked (230M)
7. Venom 3 (215M)
8. Gladiator 2 (140M)
9. Smile 2 (110M)
10. Transformers One (100M)
Joker is the one I’m going super bold on. The initial novelty factor of the first one has been circumvented by both the goodwill of the last movie and especially Gaga’s casting that I can see a decent increase. I’m also assuming its “society!” message will also resonate once again, and the trailers are resonating with damn near everybody. Even me. And I think the first Joker sucks eggs!
I had Moana doing somewhere in the 300s, and I think it’s more likely than people care to admit. And I think something like 360M or whatever would still be super impressive and incredibly good, though I know people will whine about how “IT SHOULD HAVE BEEN BIGGER”. But on the other hand, the buzz and excitement seems pretty palatable looking at Quorum metrics, social media, the popularity of that first movie, etc. Just seems like we’re in for a Shrek to Shrek 2-style bump, and that would take us to 410M, so might as well go just a wee bit higher. But again, I think the 300s would still be great for it.
Using Maleficent 2’s drop for Mufasa would give it 256M, which is probably where it would be at in the summer or something. So add on a couple extra 30M to the total right there. If it hits those numbers though, we’re probably gonna have a lot of Little Mermaid-style fighting over whether that’s a “good number” or not. Which is not gonna be fun for me! Sonic and Gladiator also seem like they’ll be annoying with a lot of “IT SHOULD HAVE BEEN BIGGER” takes. Oh well.
Main thing I accounted for in my own rankings is not just the NTC effect, but also, and more importantly, the Mickey’s Law effect. It’s very clear we’re back in the world where, for non-Disney films, anything that can go wrong will go wrong. Joker’s a DC movie, and the masses think every superhero thing is Marvel, so that doesn’t count. But hey! Beetlejuice seems like it will be an exception, barring some Twisters-style collapse overseas.
But yeah, the non-NTCs are looking ugly. Wild Robot could get to 100M with good legs, though it’s still frustrating that animated movies, the last bastion where we could get breakout hits that weren’t NTCs, are barely able to get to the century mark unless they have great legs and zero competition. That’s a bad sign for the industry. Both it and Smile 2 seem like the only potential breakouts when it comes to non-NTCs this year. Though I guess there might be a random A24 film that gets to 40M+? Maybe? I dunno. And I guess A Complete Unknown could get to 40M+ too, but that’s also basically an NTC when you get down to it.
We’re gonna have a lot of hits this fall! But it’s still looking bleak! Wish audiences bothered to be daring for once! Oh well!
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I made a top 10 for the summer prediction earlier this year, so might as well look back on it and laugh.
On 4/26/2024 at 3:57 PM, Eric Ripley said:1. Despicable Me 4: 415M
2. Inside Out 2: 400M
3. Deadpool 3: 335M
4. Twisters: 205M
5. Bad Boys: Ride or Die: 180M
6. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes: 160M
7. Garfield: 145M
8. Fall Guy: 140M
9. IF: 135M
10. A Quiet Place: Day One: 120M
The actual top 10 meanwhile is probably:
Quote1. Inside Out 2: 655M
2. Deadpool 3: 640M
3. Despicable Me 4: 370M
4. Twisters: 270M
5. Bad Boys 4: 193M
6. Kingdom of the Apes 171M
7. It Ends with Us: 150M
8. A Quiet Place: Day One: 139M
9. IF: 111M
10. Alien: Romulus: 100M
I was going super conservative because it really seemed like things were going to be bleak and embarrassing for the rest of the year, especially since it seemed like Disney movies and superhero stuff seemed like it would be permanently depressed and down. But alas, I should have never, ever in a million years doubted Mickey's Law. For non-Disney studios, anything that can go wrong will go wrong. Disney movies can bomb...but not because of the law. Not making that mistake again.
And all told, despite the law being the law, it was definitely a decent summer all things considered. Still got concerning spots in our NTC hellscape...but it could be worse I suppose.
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That’s weird. I thought Deadpool being so big would help trickle down the money to Reagan. 🤔
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https://deadline.com/2024/08/box-office-summer-labor-day-deadpool-wolverine-afraid-1236073792/
Quote1.) Deadpool & Wolverine (Dis) 3,630 (-210) theaters, Fri $3.6M (-26%), 3-day $15.7M (-14%) 4-day $19M-$20M, Total $603.3M-$604.3M/Wk 6
2.) Alien: Romulus (20th/Dis) 3,120 (-795) theaters, Fri $2.2M (-51%) 3-day $9M (-45%), 4-day $11.75M Total $91.1M/Wk 3
3.) It Ends With Us (Sony) 3,551 (-288) theaters, Fri $2.1M (-45%) 3-day $7.35M (-37%), 4-day $9.5M Total $135.7M/Wk 4
4.) Reagan (Showbiz) 2,754 theaters, Fri $2.6M 3-day $7.2M 4-day $9M/Wk 1
5.) Twisters (Uni/WB) 3,005 (-201) theaters, $1.8M (+6%) 3-day $6.6M (+8%), 4-day $8.1M Total $258.9M/Wk 7
6.) Blink Twice (AMZ MGM) 3,067 theaters, Fri $1.3M (-54%), 3-day $5.2M (-28%) 4-day $6.6M, Total $17.3M/Wk 2
7.) The Forge (Sony) 1,921 (+103) theaters, Fri $1.1M 3-day $4.5M (-32%), 4-day $6.2M, Total $15.9M/Wk 2
8.) Despicable Me 4 (Uni) 2,698 (+107) theaters, Fri $850K (-20%) 3-day $3.67M (-14%), 4-day $5M Total $355M/Wk 9
9.) Afraid (Sony) 3,003 theaters, Fri $1.1m 3-day $3.2M, 4-day $4M/Wk 1
9..) Coraline (Fath) 1,168 (-354) theaters, Fri $708K (-49%) 3-day $3M (-40%), 4-day $4M, Total $30.2M/Wk 3
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Great film. Love the whole nonlinear structure and how brutal it got at points.
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So...how have y'all been this past week? Enjoying yourselves?
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9 hours ago, AniNate said:
One other factor that I think has been mentioned before is because so many multiplexes did shutter in the wake of Covid, arthouse theaters have been finding it more lucrative to pick up those theaters' former clientele and exhibit mainstream movies more regularly, which limits the theaters that platform indie stuff can expand into.
I dunno what the solution is or if there even is one, just been hard to watch it all falter especially with the wide major releases coming out largely consisting of forgettable slop.
Will say that this is a very concerting and disheartening aspect that I do think is hurting indie releases. My local arthouse never was against showing wide releases, but they were almost always stuff like Orient Express or Downton Abbey or James Bond. And I mean these are wide releases that skew towards the olds and have a PBS/BBC style prestige, so I guess it isn’t the worst thing ever.
But post-COVID, they’ve been dipping way more into tentpoles or stuff that really skirts the line. For something like the Dune movies or even Barbie, you could maybe argue they are auteur, artistically-driven products, so…sure. And even Crawdads and It Ends With Us are based on popular books that likely have a lot of older/senior viewership.
But now my arthouse has shown stuff like The Batman and Twisters and Beetlejuice 2, and it’s like…y’all have no excuse other than you have nothing else to show. And that’s just bad for the smaller movies if even what should be a safe haven for them is rejecting their presence. I can already picture stuff like Conclave or Nightbitch getting rejected in favor of Gladiator 2 or Wicked or Mufasa, and like…I guess it would sell more tickets, but I still don’t like it.
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Quorum Updates
Never Let Go T-22: 26.81% Awareness, 48.45% Interest
Saturday Night T-43: 17.62% Awareness, 43.39% Interest
Red One T-78: 25.07% Awareness, 45.24% Interest
Gladiator II T-85: 42.83% Awareness, 48.15% Interest
1992 T-1: 27.75% Awareness, 45.41% Interest
Final Awareness: 18% chance of 10M
Low Awareness: 13% chance of 10M
Final Interest: 47% chance of 10M
Low Interest: 33% chance of 10M
Afraid T-1: 25.44% Awareness, 46% Interest
Final Awareness: 18% chance of 10M
Horror Awareness: 33% chance of 10M
Final Interest: 47% chance of 10M
Horror Interest: 43% chance of 10M
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice T-8: 72.75% Awareness, 67.15% Interest
Final Awareness: 100% chance of 90M, 83% chance of 100M, 33% chance of 200M
Tentpole Awareness: 100% chance of 100M
Final Interest: 100% chance of 30M, 89% chance of 70M, 78% chance of 100M, 11% chance of 200M
Tentpole Interest: 100% chance of 30M, 50% chance of 100M
The Front Room T-8: 27.1% Awareness, 44.11% Interest
Final Awareness: 18% chance of 10M
Horror Awareness: 33% chance of 10M
Final Interest: 47% chance of 10M
Horror Interest: 43% chance of 10M
White Bird T-36: 17.6% Awareness, 39% Interest
T-30 Awareness: 15% chance of 10M
Low Awareness: 11% chance of 10M
T-30 Interest: 30% chance of 10M
Low Interest: 24% chance of 10M
Here T-64: 15.12% Awareness, 40.64% Interest
T-60 Awareness: 29% chance of 10M
Medium Awareness: 40% chance of 10M
T-60 Interest: 61% chance of 10M
Medium Interest: 65% chance of 10M
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SATURDAY NIGHT | 09.27 [exclusive] | 10.04 [limited] | 10.11.2024 [wide] | Sony | Jason Reitman directs | official trailer on page 2
in Box Office Discussion
Posted
Can somebody explain to me where this whole "David Ehrlich hates it, so it must be good" thing came from? Because I saw this when he said Alien: Romulus and Dune 2 weren't all that, And like...he liked Twisters, he liked Longlegs, he liked Challengers, First Omen, Bad Boys, Furiosa, Planet of the Apes, Fall Guy, Wonka, Iron Claw, Songbirds and Snakes. He seems no different from any other movie critic out there.