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ThePieMan

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    2015: Top 10 Opening Weekend Predicitons

    in Box Office Discussion

    Posted

    TDK jumped over 300% on from BB, all because of Ledger. I wouldn't rule 150m out for this. besides, you're missing the bigger picture, Fast 7 wont follow usual franchise patterns with everything that happened to it, trying to compare to other franchises is just silly when their main star who was loved by women everywhere suffered a 'car' accidently recently and is still fresh in peoples minds.

    not all because of ledger

     

    Begins opened on a Wednesday, its 48mil 'opening weekend' isn't a good comparison for tdk.

     

    A good amount of the increase can be attributed to Begins being a good film, and it also had a soft opening based on rebooting after franchise ruining batman and robin.

     

    TDK was always going to have a bigger than average OW jump based on these factors. Ledgers death definitely grabbed alot of attention but to attribute all of the increase just to that is foolish 

    • Like 1

    Weekend numbers, version 2: With RTH Sunday, new projections TMNT 65.5, GOTG 42.2

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

     

    So in 3 days TMNT 2014 has earned more than the domestic totals of TMNT3 and TMNT 2007

     

    Rank Title (click to view) Studio Gross / Theaters Opening / Theaters Date 1 Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles NL $135,265,915 2,377 $25,398,367 2,006 3/30/90 2 Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles II NL $78,656,813 2,868 $20,030,473 2,868 3/22/91 3 Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles (2014) Par. $65,000,000 3,845 $65,000,000 3,845 8/8/14 4 TMNT WB $54,149,098 3,120 $24,255,205 3,110 3/23/07 5 Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles III NL $42,273,609 2,087 $12,419,597 2,087 3/19/93

     

     

    yeah its doing pretty great, Its budget is about 1.5x higher than all the other turtles movies combined though

    • Like 1

    Weekend Numbers (pg119) Turtles 65M, GOTG 41.5

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    Pie man.. There is no heres bigger than Superman and Batmaan.

     

     Your talking about its the one comic film that could get 60-90 yr olds back in theaters..

     

      So your wrong there, especially if the quality is up there with TDK, SM2, CA2, etc.

    No bigger in the US, Spiderman has been doing 400mill+ international numbers since the early 2000's

     

    Superman especially is way less popular outside the US than Batman and Spidey and batman needed to rebuild after killing the franchise in the 90's.

     

    Like I said, Huge domestic, and I'm not saying it will do poor numbers internationally but it's not doing 7-800mill +++ like your talking about

    Weekend Numbers (pg119) Turtles 65M, GOTG 41.5

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    Hah hah just wait if that Batman and Superman Film is as good as we hope and when

     

     Juggernaut 2016 hits... OH my ... lol First time we may see a  1.4-1.6B WW film look like nothing!!

     

     I really think a well done Superman and Batman film may have over 2B WW potential.

    Nah international numbers won't be huge for BvS, It will do huge in Dom gross but it wont be getting that double or triple international numbers it would need for 1.5b+

     

    The actual Justice League a couple of years later after they build up the world is going to be massive though

    Weekend Numbers (pg119) Turtles 65M, GOTG 41.5

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    Amen and fans are liking it so I think it will pass 150-160+M domestic :)

    Yeah I wasn't sold by the trailers but I'm seeing fairly positive stuff being said about the movie (outside of reviews which have been brutal), it's a bit mixed reception as far as general story/quality but people seem to really dig the actual turtles which in a turtles movie is your number one job

     

    I think if the sat-sun holds up 175+ is a real shot.

    Thursday #s: GOTG 7.6m

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by ThePieMan

    Good job on the research.  So it is possible,...unlikely, but possible seeing as most of the films you have listed there came out 8-10 years ago.

    the 1 to 5 years ago list was from the last page

     

    We're the Millers R comedy 84%

    Bourne Legacy pg 13 action 74%

    Expendables 2 R action 88%

    Final Destination R ..thriller?weird accident genre? 90%

    Expendables 1 R action 80%

    Inglorious Basterds R Tarantino 85%

    Tropic Thunder R comedy 79%

     

    + ROTPOTA 87%

    • Like 1

    Thursday #s: GOTG 7.6m

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    Rush hour 3 pg 13 action comedy 2007 80%

    World Trade Center pg 13 2006 Drama 90%

    40 year old virgin R comedy 2005 106%

    Four Brothers R action 2005 79%

    Red Eye pg 13 thriller 2005 147%

    Collateral R 2004 thriller/crime 79%

    Without a Paddle 2004 pg 13 comedy 117%

    SWAT 2003 pg13 action 113%

    Freaky Friday 2003 PG comedy 80%

    Freddy vs Jason 2003 R horror 90%

     

    some of the other more recent ones I missed

     

    The Butler 2013 pg13 Drama 98%

    Planes 2013 G Kids 81%

    Hope Springs pg 13 drama 2012 77%

     

     

    only stuff in the top 5 each year an nothing that opened aug and had a second week in sep which seemed to always have a bigger jump.

     

    The films in this list + the other one I posted earlier cover a pretty wide range of genres and ratings. R action and comedy definately the most represented but it seems that rotpota isnt a huge outlier. There appears to be at least one movie in the top 5 every year pulling good second weeks regardless of genre/demographic. That also does mean that there are more August openers that aren't pulling those numbers than are but i don't see why rotpota is held on such a pedestal as far as august 2nd weeks go

    • Like 2

    Thursday #s: GOTG 7.6m

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    An R rated adult comedy

    see post above

     

    Bourne Legacy pg 13 action 74%

    Expendables 2 R action 88%

    Final Destination R ..thriller?weird accident genre? 90%

    Expendables 1 R action 80%

    Inglorious Basterds R Tarantino 85%

    Tropic Thunder R comedy 79%

     

     

    thats 5 years

    • Like 3

    Thursday #s: GOTG 7.6m

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    Then GOTG opening weekend # would have reported as $83.4m which sounds less impressive than $94.6m and T4 couldn't have even fudged it's way to a $100m w/e.  They all play by the same rules.

    yeah they all play by the same bent rules. don't wanna sound like too much of an old man "back in my day" type post but imo midnights should be midnights and be a part of the weekend. If a studio wants to open on a thursday just open on a thursday. These previews are giving like 30hr opening days, wont be long before they are starting there thursday night previews at 5pm

    • Like 1

    Weekend Numbers: GOTG - 94M (PG 180) [25.5M Sunday (Spatula) Cancel the Godzilla legs!]

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    I'll admit I didn't know what to expect from guardian's box office at first, I always predicted around 180-240m range total, and predicted a 75m opening hoping for mid 80s, so it's definitely surpassing box office expectations.But I will say as each blockbuster this summer underperformed I was thinking (but not certain) that GOTG could be the breakout Pirates/transformers and win the summer. We still need to see how it performs next week before we know if it can win the summer or not but it's definitely possible if it can hold well.

    I don't think you can say cap or xmen underperformed, right in line with a decent run for both domestically imo.Maleficent i think as well isnt an underperformer. Spiderman is underperforming for what a spiderman film should do but as a shitty fllow up to a shitty reeboot I'm not sure you can expect much more of it.

    • Like 2
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