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vignette123

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    SPECTRE OS Thread | 80.4m OW | 80.4m OS Total | 6 Markets only - 63.8m from UK alone! Record Breaking | expands to 57 markets next week

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    4 hours ago, quigquag33 said:

    That doesn't really help cuz u're not explaining how u got those numbers.

    After the thanksgiving weekend of 2012, Skyfall did just over 60 Mill till the end of its run. QoS did 26 Mill in the same timeframe, and its legs were much weaker already. I'm expecting Spectre to settle somewhere in between these 2 numbers.

     

    With regards to Intl, UK should generate another 10 Mill. Japan maybe 20 Mill and throw in around 75 Mill in the rest of the markets till the end of it's run in 2016. That's my rationale for the 900 Mill figure. The biggest ? is how much Star Wars would affect this once it is out in a couple of weeks' time and I expect a significant impact and that unknown is what may tip the scales against SP.

    • Like 1

    SPECTRE OS Thread | 80.4m OW | 80.4m OS Total | 6 Markets only - 63.8m from UK alone! Record Breaking | expands to 57 markets next week

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    On 11/29/2015, 11:22:00, quigquag33 said:

    Spectre had yet another drop of (much) more than 50% (1 - 30.4 / 65.3 = 53.4%). Its worldwide weekend (including NA) was $43.2M. It looks like it can muster an additional $70M (43.2 * 1.3 / 0.5 - 43.2 = 69.12) worldwide from existing markets (including NA). Japan is the only market left to open and I doubt it can make more than $30M there. After all, Skyfall made $32M there when the exchange rate was way better. By and large, Spectre cannot make more than $100M at the worldwide box office, meaning it won't even surpass Inside Out ($851.5M) or $850M. Please let me know if you notice any significant flaw in the above argument.

     

    1.3 is the average ratio of weekly-to-weekend grosses

    0.5 is the average weekend % drop from now on

    Both are predictions based on prior data and upcoming competition

    Approx 40 Mill from the US and 100 Mill plus from the rest of the world. I'd still wager that this will end up over 900 Mill.

    China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

    in China At The Box Office

    Posted

    2 hours ago, The Good Olive said:

    Monday  estimates
    Our Times： 18M/128M
    Transporter Refueled：10.6M/80.5M

    Mockingjay - Part 2：9.4M/111M
    Spectre： 8.4M/502M
     

     

    Excellent hold for Top 2, not so much for MJ2 and SPECTRE.

    Transporter Refueled may end up bigger than MJ2, so hilarious.

     

    Knowing what you guys know about the Chinese market, what will MJ2 and Spectre likely end up at? Martian will probably kill these two by the end of this week?

    SPECTRE OS Thread | 80.4m OW | 80.4m OS Total | 6 Markets only - 63.8m from UK alone! Record Breaking | expands to 57 markets next week

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    6 hours ago, Juby said:

    Agree. $670-680 mln OS is the target. Maybe $690 mln.

     

    $900 mln WW is dead with its domestic underperforming (probably only $185 mln).

    Obviously you have NO  idea of what you're talking about. With the current domestic of $153 Mill and with Thanksgiving this week, are saying that the BO will generate an additional 30 Mill plus from here? Here's a toast to Mr. Clueless ---

    China Box Office Thread | Oppenheimer-August 30

    in China At The Box Office

    Posted

    1 hour ago, mepal1 said:

    With still 2 weeks to play.......are you sure SP will only gross another $8 mil in all that time?

     

    MJ2.................that's a disastrous BO for such a high profile Hollywood film......................but no one outside of North America really cares for the Hunger Games films.

    These chaps know what they're talking about when it comes to predicting how the Chinese box office goes. Spectre is a 'relative' disappointment in China in that this is not hitting even $100 Mill there, even after all that extensive promotion. To me this Chinese under performance effectively rules out a Billion $ box office WW for Spectre.

     

    Well, I don't think that it is a case if 'No one outside of NA' cares about the HG Franchise. The previous films did relatively well in Europe, but yes, they probably don't have as wide an audience as some of the better known Franchises. Plus this is a case of sequel fatigue kicking in. Lionsgate will still make money from this, maybe just not as much as they'd have wanted to.

    Monday #s: Spectre 2.43M | Peanuts .887M | Coopers .583| Martian .455k

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted · Edited by vignette123

    7 hours ago, a2knet said:

     

     

    16 hours ago, Tau Ceti said:

     

    Alright, I think these points have been well covered on the last two weekend threads and I have no desire to get into a last word debate.

     

    But I will just phrase it in one last sense: your invective would suggest that Spectre is some kind of crazy outlier but it's not going to be at all. I don't know where you're getting your admissions numbers but the adjusted Bond figures are sitting on Mojo (I believe Telemachos posted them to you at one point). At 200M Spectre would be slightly below the franchise average of 215M and within the lower half of the Brosnan/Craig era. Again, a mild disappointment. A slightly under-cooked turkey. That's all. Not a franchise killer or a spectacular catastrophe. And taken alongside $150 in the UK, +$100M in China, and solid numbers everywhere else and I don't think anyone involved in this movie is going to call it a failure.

     

    Now then, I suspect that absolutely nothing of what I have just said is going to make any difference to you :). And perhaps we are standing on the precipice of an unparalleled cratering in Spectre's numbers. So please if the film finishes a dollar short of QoS, look me up and present a dish of tasty crow.

    It won't make a difference to the Wee Laddie MovieMaker's head; he's parked in the freezer with the notion that this is a big failure. Maybe it was the humour in the film that did him in. 

    Weekend Actuals | SPECTRE 33.68M, Peanuts 24M

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, misafeco said:
     13 másodperccel ezelőtt

    SPECTRE took in $33.68M this weekend. Domestic total stands at $128.98M.

    Oh my god!! All is lost. It had a massive drop on Sunday and this will go down by 90% on Monday. With some prayers by the very many Bond supporters on this board, this may end up at $175 Mill. God (and board members) only can help Bond. 

    The Martian OS Thread | 17m Weekend | 245.6m OS total

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    8 hours ago, PanaMovie said:

    THE MARTIAN
    Ridley Scott’s latest continues to cultivate box office wherever it lands. A$5.3M weekend from 3,082 screens in 47 markets blasts the offshore total to $270.5M. This film, from Fox, is on track to best all of Scott’s overseas performances. Despite the tragic events in Paris and a day when movie theaters were shut, the territory drew $1.4M for an $18.2M cume. Other key cumes after several weeks of play are the UK at $35.3M, Korea at $333.6M and Germany at $16M. China releases November 25 and Japan goes later in February.

     

    Source: Deadline.com

     

     

    China will do 100 mill plus and so, 600 mill is well within range.

    SPECTRE OS Thread | 80.4m OW | 80.4m OS Total | 6 Markets only - 63.8m from UK alone! Record Breaking | expands to 57 markets next week

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Burgess said:

    The OS doesn't include France. Spectre could go up on Monday or Tuesday.

    And the unreported numbers from France for the weekend was $14 Mill. Sony hasn't officially included this number in their International totals, but Hollywood Reporter has this mentioned.

     

    http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-spectre-stays-no-840163

     

    SPECTRE OS Thread | 80.4m OW | 80.4m OS Total | 6 Markets only - 63.8m from UK alone! Record Breaking | expands to 57 markets next week

    in International Box Office

    Posted

    20 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

     

    I'd say the big mark is $900m WW.  It only has Japan left to open and the yen is down 25% from 2012.
     

    Openers: Skyfall vs Spectre

     

    China: $34.5m (full 7 day - no w/e total available) v $48m 

    Australia:  $13.2m v $8.7m 

    NZ: $1.7m v $1.3m

    SK: $5.9m v $8.2m

     

    Comparative Skyfall v Spectre totals after 2nd & 3rd w/e

     

    UK: $114.5m  vs  $121m

    Germany: $43.45m v $38.7m

    Norway:  $10.1m  v $7.4m

    Sweden: $11.2m v $9.5m

    Denmark: $9.98m v $10.5m

    Netherlands: $12.75m  v $11.8m

    Finland: $5.28m v $5.3m

    Russia: $16.67m v $10.7m

    Poland: $5.5m v $6.5m

    Italy: $12m  v $10m
    Spain:  $9.27m v$5.6m

    Brazil: $8.1m v $5.3m

    Portugal: $1.76m v $1.7m

    Mexico: $5.8m v $8.3m

    Awww... with increased admissions in most markets compensating for a stronger dollar, Spectre is in gooood shape to hit the Billion mark. 900 mill is a given; whether it stops 40-50 mill after 900 like the hobbits 2 and 3 did or if it pushes on past the billion number is about the only point of contention.

    • Like 2

    Weekend Estimates: Bond 35.4M, Peanuts 24.2M, Coopers 8.4M, Martian 6.7M, 33 5.8M

    in Numbers and Data

    Posted

    30 minutes ago, John Marston said:

    Yeah a billion is dead. Mainly due to domestic drop. Kind of similar to what happened with Hobbit 2 where domestic drop killed its billon chance 

    If for any reason, the billion does ends up being dead, its not just down to the US numbers: I'd mostly put that on the strong dollar. In recent times, the US was never really the centre of the universe, as far as Bond was concerned. Overseas was more than 800 Mill for Skyfall and with the dollar index being up a good 25% from 2012, that translates to a roughly 200 Mill 'shortfall'. 

     

    China can maybe give a bit of a boost, but with a possible 80 mill less from the US coupled with the -ve impact of a strong dollar, it may 'just about' hit the Billion mark.

     

    • Like 1
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