Newland Archer
-
Posts
13 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Forums
Events
Blogs
Gallery
Annual Subscriptions
Media Demo
Posts posted by Newland Archer
-
-
50 minutes ago, TimmyRiggins said:
"They should have lowered the budget for Vice", you say this as if you simply push a button and suddenly the budget is lower. Yes, Megan Ellison has been said to spend too much on films but some films have a fixed cost and have to be made for said budget. Haven't seen the film yet but from the trailers, I guess I can see how it cost that much because it seems pretty sprawling.
Making films is fucking expensive, Captain Obvious I know but you'd be surprised how much some films do cost even when they seem tiny (I know from experience). Some people often go "damn, why was that that expensive", there's usually a very good reason. Vice might reach 50-60 M, I'm not sure it'll make a dent overseas but I guess it could manage an 80 million WW take, perhaps 100 M, it had a pretty good debut in Australia, we'll see.
Also, in what universe would If Beale Street Could Talk make more money than Vice? It's probably going to be one of those classic "strong PTA in limited release, fizzles out quickly in wider release" cases, I guess it'll finish around 12 million or something domestic and I doubt it'll have any traction overseas.
In what universe Vice "might reach 50-60 M"? That would be VERY surprising considering its disastrous first week-end.
-
5 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:
It's already proven to be leggy in most markets, and its holds during the holidays have been very good. Nothing about it is indicative of a post-holiday collapse. 50% would be worrisome - I'm looking for it to surpass Deadpool 2
I have no skin in the game, I don't care how high it goes from now. It's assured to reach 300 domestic, 900 WW, with a distinct possibility of reaching 1 billion: much more than I would have expected from an Entourage joke gone real, especially one toplined by Jason Momoa and Amber heard 😉
-
9 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:
Hobbit opened a week earlier. So not exactly apples-to-apples. But definitely possible. 50% would be a bit worrisome, but I wouldn't necessarily be shocked - as I said, let's see how it does Wed and Thu.
Worrisome not really, film is already an undisputable hit. But I'm maybe biased against Aquaman, it looks like such a tacky mess to me that I have trouble seeing a leggy run after holidays.
-
2
-
-
15 minutes ago, reddevil19 said:
National Treasure dropped over 40% and that's a decent comparison as well. We'll need to see the Wed and Thu, but I'm looking at 40%, personally.
I think it will be closer to 45/50 % like Hobbit on the first week-end of 2013. Film is appreciated but not super-loved, and it will have already made 220/225 by thursday.
-
10 minutes ago, katniss said:
lol Aquaman is locked for 300 million. It's gonna be over 240 AT MINIMUM by next Sunday. You have to be trolling if you think this won't make 60 million in the remaining 10 weeks of its box office run. lulz
yes, I forgot to include the 30 millions of the next 4 days, my bad
-
Aquaman will be lucky to get to 300, Poppins to 200, Bumblebee to 120, Spiderverse to 150, Vice to 40...
-
2 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:
More forecasting:
The Mule:
Remainder of this week: 9.8M (70.5M Total)
Jan 4: 6.1M (2.7M weekdays, 79.3M Total)
Jan 11: 2.5M (1.6M weekdays, 83.4M Total)
Jan 18: 1.4M (900k weekdays, 85.7M Total)
Jan 25: 800k (500k weekdays, 87M Total)
Final Total: 90M (5.14x)
I expect this to start behaving like Book Club once the holidays are over. It'll have some harsh weekend drops, but the weekday holds will be very strong. 100M probably won't happen unless it manages those weekdays and better weekends, but this is still a great total.
Vice:
Remainder of this week: 7.2M (24.9M Total)
Jan 4: 6.5M (2.7M weekdays, 34.1M Total)
Jan 11: 4.9M (2.2M weekdays, 41.2M Total)
Jan 18: 4.5M (1.6M weekdays, 47.3M Total)Jan 25: 3.5M (1.8M weekdays, 52.6M Total)
Feb 1: 3.2M (1.3M weekdays, 57.1M Total)
Feb 8: 2.3M (1.4M weekdays, 61.8M Total)
Feb 15: 1.5M (700k weekdays, 64M Total)
Feb 22: 1.5M (700k weekdays, 66.2M Total)
Mar 1: 900k (300k weekdays, 67.4M Total)
Final Total: 69M (3.9x from 6 day/8.85x from 3 day)
I really have no idea what to expect from Vice's legs. 22% of the audience is under 25, so this won't quite behave like something as The Post in terms of day to day holds. When you add in the seniors who come for the awards buzz (even though that is the demo with the worst WOM for it), that probably means mid-60s Monday drops. A Best Picture nomination would inflate this even more, which I am currently predicting to happen. If this total happens and it has a similar OS share as The Big Short did, Annapurna should be in the green.
Second Act:
Remainder of this week: 6.1M (27.9M Total)
Jan 4: 5.4M (1.7M weekdays, 35M Total)
Jan 11: 2.7M (900k weekdays, 38.6M Total)
Jan 18: 1.1M (300k weekdays, 40M Total)
Final Total: 42M (6.46x)
This is going to start dropping theaters very quickly on the 11th, but this will be a nice profit for STX.
Holmes and Watson:
Remainder of this week: 4.5M (24.2M Total)
Jan 4: 2.5M (600k weekdays, 27.3M Total)
Jan 11: 600k (200k weekdays, 28.1M Total)
Final Total: 29M (1.47x from 6 day/3.97x from 3 day)
lmao, this movie's floppage is something to behold
Way too optimistic also, borderline insane for Vice. Too pessimistic for The Mule.
-
4 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:
Some forecasts:
Aquaman:
Remainder of this week: 47.7M (236.5M Total)
Jan 4: 32.5M (9.6M weekdays, 278.5M Total)
Jan 11: 18M (6.2M weekdays, 302.7M Total)
Jan 18: 9.2M (3.5M weekdays, 315.4M Total)
Jan 25: 4.7M (1.8M weekdays, 321.9M Total)
Feb 1: 3.2M (1.1M weekdays, 326.2M Total)
Feb 8: 1.8M (800k weekdays, 328.8M Total)
Feb 15: 1M (400k weekdays, 330.2M Total)
Feb 22: 400k (200k weekdays, 330.8M Total)
Final Total: 333M (4.58x with Prime)
This will more than likely surpass SS, but BVS depends on how much Glass hits it.
Mary Poppins:
Remainder of this week: 32M (130.9M Total)
Jan 4: 28.4M (7.6M weekdays, 166.9M Total)
Jan 11: 21.3M (5.2M weekdays, 193.4M Total)
Jan 18: 13.6M (7.8M weekdays, 214.8M Total)
Jan 25: 11.7M (3.1M weekdays, 229.6M Total)
Feb 1: 7.4M (2.2M weekdays, 239.2M Total)
Feb 8: 5.1M (1.9M weekdays, 246.2M Total)
Feb 15: 3.7M (2M weekdays, 253.9M Total)
Feb 22: 2.9M (800k weekdays, 257.6M Total)
Mar 1: 2M (600k weekdays, 260.2M Total)
Mar 8: 1.3M (400k weekdays, 261.9M Total)
Mar 15: 800k (300k weekdays, 263M Total)
Final Total: 267M (8.27x from 5 day/11.36x from 3 day)
So who's still calling this Mary Floppins? This is going to be in store for a sub-5% drop or an increase next weekend if it follows Parental Guidance. Even if something goes wrong with that comp, it still isn't dropping more than 15-20%. Very strong legs are in store as family competition is light until February, and by then, WOM will be strong as steel.
Bumblebee:
Remainder of this week: 16.9M (83.7M Total)
Jan 4: 14.2M (4.1M weekdays, 102M Total)
Jan 11: 9.8M (3.2M weekdays, 115M Total)
Jan 18: 7.3M (3.5M weekdays, 125.8M Total)
Jan 25: 5.5M (2M weekdays, 133.3M Total)
Feb 1: 3.8M (1.2M weekdays, 138.3M Total)
Feb 8: 2.6M (1.2M weekdays, 142.1M Total)
Feb 15: 1.4M (500k weekdays, 144M Total)
Feb 22: 600k (200k weekdays, 144.8M Total)
Final Total: 148M (6.82x)
IDK if this can hit 150M, but over The Last Knight should be assured.
Spider-Verse:
Remainder of this week: 15.8M (119.4M Total)
Jan 4: 12.4M (3.1M weekdays, 134.9M Total)
Jan 11: 8.9M (2.2M weekdays, 146M Total)
Jan 18: 5.2M (2.8M weekdays, 154M Total)
Jan 25: 4.4M (1.3M weekdays, 159.7M Total)
Feb 1: 2.8M (700k weekdays, 163.2M Total)
Feb 8: 1.6M (600k weekdays, 165.4M Total)
Feb 15: 800k (200k weekdays, 166.5M Total)
Final Total: 170M (4.8x)
This and Aquaman will be neck and neck with each other every weekend starting later in January. This will be the first of the big 4 Christmas releases to be dropped from theaters, but it will still end up in third (domestically) with a great total.
I'll do a few other movies in a bit.
Your predictions are (way) too optimistic.
-
5 minutes ago, fastclock said:
piaofang.maoyan.com
You can use google translate to figure things out
Ok i'm gonna check that, thanks!
-
4 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:
Many foreign films only get to 2xOW at best in China. The MEG has good WOM and good holds, but it faced two local films (or fellow Chinese films if you consider The MEG a great Chinese drama) and more competitors are releasing this weekend - taking most of the screens.
Just for info, how do you know about next week-end screen counts? Is there a site I could check? I only know something called http://english.entgroup.cn/report.aspx
-
2 minutes ago, a2k said:
heavy competition in coming weekens starting friday that limits screen space. chinese bo also heavily depends on the rating the movie gets and it's sub-9 on maoyan. 8.5-8.9 is average/abv average. 125 total would 2.4-2.45x multi, which is a very healthy multi in china considering the competition.
Ok. I'm still a bit skeptical given the weekdays numbers, but I'll admit I'm not a China BO expert.
-
4 hours ago, a2k said:
20m 2nd weekend looks good imo
using 19 weekend, 82.5 10-day
82.5 + 19*2.1 = 122.4 dom (2.70x multi) is looking like the floor
Dom could do 125-130 and China could do 120-125 for 250 combined from these 2 markets. 400 ww then becomes very likely.
The Meg is gonna make 85 in China for the first 7 days. How from here does it stop at 120/125.
Mondays (New Year's Eve) Estimates: Aquaman $10.13M | Bumblebee $4.24M | Spider-Verse $4.03M
in Numbers and Data
Posted
Adult skewing films typically fare the best on New Year's Eve, hence the very small drops for Vice and The Mule. Mecanicallyt their progression on new year's day will be small.